9-11-09

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Wunderdog

Pick: 3 units on Toledo +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Toledo is never an easy out when you get them at home. They have also proven to be best when they aren't expected to win as they have turned in an 8-3 ATS mark as a home dog this decade. The Buffalos, who once played even with Nebraska and Oklahoma in the Big-12, have not been seen since the 1990s. The proof came last week when they were a big favorite at home vs. a weak Colorado State team with a brand new quarterback, and before you knew it they were down 20-3. The offense is simply a mess and the coaching is suspect. Dan Hawkins, while he killed it at Boise, is just 13-23 ATS at Colorado. He claims the Buffs are capable of winning ten games this season, but now there are just 11 left and he has to go to Oklahoma State and Texas yet, so I don't see it. The play calling and defensive line are issues and the secondary is very suspect. This is a team that has won a total of two road games in the last three years and have no right being favored in this spot. Very telling is the fact the Buffalo's are 0-6 ATS following a game where the offense generated 275 yards or less. Toledo is a tough out at home where they are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 played. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home coming off a road loss. I'm going with Toledo in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

CharliE

mlb & ncaaf.
atlanta @ st louis under 8 runs, colorado @ toledo over 54' & toledo+3' (500* triple play).

mlb. arizona-135 (30*)
mlb. dodgers @ giants under 7' runs (20*)
mlb. royals @ indians under 7' runs (20*)
mlb. royals-145 (10*)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

SuperSportsGroup - 9/11
MLB

Friday Sep 10th

Washington v. Florida 7:10pm
PICK: Marlins OVER 8.5 -110 (7*)


Tampa Bay v. Boston 7:10pm
PICK: Boston RL +105 (7*)


Colorado v. San Diego 10pm
PICK: Padres ML +135 (8*) Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Sid Paradise - 9/11
Thank you for purchasing my picks!
Colorado @ Toledo +4(-110)/54, 9pm Et
Both teams opened the season with a loss so both will be that much hungrier for a win. In some ways, these two teams paralleled each other last year. They both had trouble on offense, while relying on their defense to get them the few wins that they did get. Both should struggle on offense in this one as well. Toledo passed for over 400 yards vs Purdue last week but they were in pass only mode most of the game. Colorado led the Big 12 in pass defense last season and has most of its secondary returning. Colorado has inexperience in the passing game and should also struggle vs a veteran Toledo secondary. The main concern for the Rockets is there run defense, which gave up 315 yards on 39 carries (8.1 per). A little of this is miss leading because they gave up TD runs in the 1st quarter of 78 and 43. Take out those runs and it looks much more respectable at 5.2 per rush and they happened in the first quarter so they were able to tighten up on the big plays after that. Purdue returned 4 guys to their offensive line and had their focus on the ground attack we should give Toledo's run D a small break. Colorado despite returning 4 starters of their own only ran for 29 yards last week so after a week of tightening the holes the Toledo run D should be much better. Defense and sloppy play will rule this one, at least to the point that I like the Under 54. Both teams have been hitting Unders of late, Colorado 4 of their last 6 road games and Toledo 4 of their last 5 home games. Colorado went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS to close out last season on the road and Toledo has historically played well at home, especially as the under dog vs bigger conferences. Gotta like the classic dog and the under trick.


Pick- Toledo +4 (-110) 4* play
Pick- UNDER 54 (-105) 2* play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Wunderdog

Pick: 3 units on Toledo +4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Toledo is never an easy out when you get them at home. They have also proven to be best when they aren't expected to win as they have turned in an 8-3 ATS mark as a home dog this decade. The Buffalos, who once played even with Nebraska and Oklahoma in the Big-12, have not been seen since the 1990s. The proof came last week when they were a big favorite at home vs. a weak Colorado State team with a brand new quarterback, and before you knew it they were down 20-3. The offense is simply a mess and the coaching is suspect. Dan Hawkins, while he killed it at Boise, is just 13-23 ATS at Colorado. He claims the Buffs are capable of winning ten games this season, but now there are just 11 left and he has to go to Oklahoma State and Texas yet, so I don't see it. The play calling and defensive line are issues and the secondary is very suspect. This is a team that has won a total of two road games in the last three years and have no right being favored in this spot. Very telling is the fact the Buffalo's are 0-6 ATS following a game where the offense generated 275 yards or less. Toledo is a tough out at home where they are 27-13 ATS in their last 40 played. They are also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games at home coming off a road loss.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Wizzard's Picks for 9/11/09
MLB: Friday 9/11/09
30* KC Royals (-140)
50* Boston Red Sox (-200)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Dave Malinsky Top of the Ticket - Run Line

-1.5 RUNS,BOSTON RED SOX (Lester)-vs- Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Shields)

4* #974 BOSTON Run Line over TAMPA BAY

It should not come as any surprise at all that we stay in play against the shell-shocked Rays in this one ? with their losing streak having reached eight games Fenway Park is the last place that they want to be, particularly with this mound being a personal House of Horrors for starter James Shields. So with the Run Line offering us an underdog return, we are in play. Shields sports a career count of 0-5/9.00 in Fenway, with 37 hits allowed over 22 innings, including five home runs. And when we go up and down the Red Sox lineup it is easy to see how that count got produced; counting games both here and at The Trop, J. D. Drew is 9-23 with two home runs, Mike Lowell 8-22, David Ortiz 8-21 with two homers, Dustin Pedroia 9-19 with a home run; and Jason Bay 3-8 with a home run. Now they add Victor Martinez, and his .333 lifetime count against the Tampa right-hander. And it is not as though Shields can rely on current form to overcome this, with his 2-0 run over the last three starts masquerading a 5.85 ERA, and an allowance of six home runs over those 20 innings. And behind him is a disheveled bullpen that has worked to an awful 9.78 tune over this 0-8 slide. Meanwhile Jon Lester continues to work as effectively as anyone in the game right now, and that may sound like a strong statement considering how hot some other starters are, take a closer look. Since August 1st it has been a 2.12 allowance over 46.2 frames, with far more strikeouts (56) than base-runners allowed (32 hits and 13 walks). But what makes that really go to a higher level is how those numbers got compiled ? six of seven starts in that span were on the road, including facing the Yankees in the Bronx, these Rays in Tampa twice, and the Rangers in Arlington. Lester held the Rays to three runs over 12 innings in those two outings, with nearly twice as many strikeouts (19) as hits allowed (10), and in a rare chance to work from his preferred home mound we can back him confidently.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

MLB BASEBALL PLAYS

5 Unit Play. #960 Take St. Louis -130 over Atlanta (Friday 9/11 8:15 PM)

(Game of the Week) St. Louis is just on cruise control and tonight the Cards welcome Atlanta to a 3-game series. Atlanta has Jair Jurrjens on the mound tonight and in his last 2 starts against St. Louis he is 0-2 with an ERA of 3.46. Atlanta doesn’t have the bats to play ketchup so I look for St. Louis to score early and often tonight. The Cardinals have won 9 of 12 meetings against Braves and tonight in St. Louis we should see number 10 of 13. Atlanta is 0-11 when Jurrjens starts against NL Central teams


Vegas Sports Informer's

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

3-Unit Play. Take #978 Minnesota (-1.5, -110) over Oakland (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)
Things are getting desperate for Minnesota right now. And they are nearing the end of the Metrodome. I think they are going to be a strong home team for the last month of the season. The A's are just 14-37 after an off day and the Twins are 6-1 against Oakland at home.

Allen Eastman

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

9-1 MLB Run & 6 of 7 winning days. 6-1 in mlb this week. Let's keep it going:

4 Unit Play. #952. Take the Chicago Cubs -1.5 (No run-line value given yet, when it is up, I will update) over the Cincinnati Reds (Friday @ 2:20pm). Lehr comes off back to back wins and he is in prime spot for a let down here. Despite giving up 9 runs over his last two starts Justin has managed to pick up back to back wins. He is not in overly sharp form right now and I believe the Cubs are just waiting for him with open arms right now. The last time Lehr faced the Cubs he pitched a complete game four hit shutout. Now that the Cubs have had nine solid innings to look at his stuff, I expect the hitters to have an edge here. On top of that, the last time Harden pitched against the Reds on the road he picked up the loss as the Cubs lost 0-4. I look for Harden and the Cubs to get their revenge at home today as they likely cover the run-line. The Reds are 0-4 in their last four road games and the Cubs are 10-2 as large favorites by this margin of late.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 between the New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies (Friday @ 7:05pm est). Do not underestimate Figueroa as he is able to put up some solid starts on the road. This veteran born in 1974 in Brooklyn New York went seven innings and gave up just one run to the Cubs on the road en route to a 4-1 win. He then faced the Cubs in the next game as well and fell short 3-5 which is expected given that it is very tough to defeat a team in back to back starts. I look for Figueora to have a solid start today but in the same token I expect Hamels to have a good bounce-back effort as well. Cole gave up four runs in six innings in a tough loss to the Astros in his last effort. Prior to that start, Hamels had given up no runs in seventeen innings. In fact, he went on that streak after he had given up four runs in the previous start - similar to the situation he is in today. The Under is 5-1 in Figueora's last six starts against a team with a winning record and the Under is 5-0 for Hamels when the total is set at this range.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 8 between the Atlanta Braves @ St. Louis Cardinals (Friday @ 8:15pm est). Despite Jair pitching well, he is still falling short of picking up wins. I look for him to continue to seek those wins and produce one quality start after another. The young man who was born in 86' still has a 2.93 era this year as it is sub 3 which has to make the organization very pleased. I look for yet another quality start as Jair comes off back to back losses despite both of them being solid starts. Pineiro comes off a no-decision at Pittsburgh but did not pitch well to his expectations. The Cards ended up losing the game 5-6 and I suspect Pineiro puts together a strong effort today coming off that start. The Under is 7-1 when the total is set at this range for Pineiro.

Good luck,

IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Robert Ferrringo

1.5-Unit Play. Take #954 Philadelphia (-1.5, -130) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #956 Florida (-1.5, -120) over Washington (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #960 St. Louis (-125) over Atlanta (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)


1-Unit Play. Take #963 Colorado (-145) over San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)


1-Unit Play. Take #966 San Francisco (-120) over L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)


1-Unit Play. Take #970 N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -145) over Baltimore (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)



Today's Totals
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Tampa Bay at Boston (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Seattle at Texas (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2 p.m., Friday, Sept. 11)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Tim Trushel

toledo /reg
under houston / reg

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Tony Salinas Baseball
Friday, September 11, 2009

25*
Royals {Z.Greinke} (-145) over Indians {J.Masterson}
7:05 PM -- Progressive Field
Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.

23*
Cardinals {J.Pineiro} (-135) over Braves {J.Jurrjens}
8:15 PM -- Busch Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

24*
Rockies {J.De La Rosa} (-150) over Padres {E.Mujica}
10:05 PM -- Petco Park
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-11-09

Alatex

MLB:Arizona Over 9 -125 Regular Play