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Re: 9-20-08
David Malinsky
Central Florida @ Boston College
PICK: 4* Boston College -10
One of our favorite settings in college football through the years comes up in this one, and yet it is one that we have never developed a catch phrase for. A “No-Sizzle” favorite? We will have to do better. What we have is a superior team that brings a defense that can absolutely dominate the opposing team’s offense, and the mind-set to do so. But because they lack sex appeal, the number is short.
The public is always enamored with big favorites that are explosive on offense, since those teams can score into the 40’s and 50’s to break games wide open. As such, the oddsmakers have to make particular adjustments for those settings. But the favorite that can completely shut down the opponent often has an even better chance of covering the spread; they are just not as likely to do it in explosive fashion. That is Boston College this week. The Eagle front seven on defense is among the best in the nation, and through the first two games the defense has allowed only 17 points, 24 first downs and 485 yards. Those games were against opponents that had mobile QB’s (Justin Edelman for Kent State and Josh Nesbitt for Georgia Tech), and dynamic lead RB’s (Eugene Jarvis for Kent and Jonathan Dwyer for GT). Now they face a young Central Florida offense that has neither. In fact, the Golden Knights do not have much of anything offensively.
We do not think much of Michael Greco at QB. We do not think much of his receivers. And in all of the years that we have charted college football, falling down from the 2,567 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s of Kevin Smith, to a current RB corps in which the top three on the depth chart are all freshmen, is one of the biggest single-position drop-offs we have seen. Even the OL only brought back two starters from LY. So how has this played out? In the opener against lowly South Carolina State they managed only 318 yards, and it was 7-0 well into the 4th quarter of a 17-0 win. As for that overtime thriller vs. South Florida, go back and review. Even with the added possession in O.T. they could muster only 12 first downs and 226 yards, and the game would likely have ended 24-10, with their only touchdown coming on a punt return, if South Florida had not set up the late sequence by throwing an ill-timed interception with a little more than three minutes left.
Yes, there should be some concerns about the Boston College offense, after three second-half turnovers turned their game around vs. Georgia Tech. But as we wrote in the first paragraph, the “mind-set” is right where we want it to be. The Eagles have had two weeks to build up some frustrations off of the Tech loss, and with only Rhode Island on deck there is absolutely no holding back. That means that they bring a knock-out punch to the table against an opponent that clearly has a glass jaw.
David Malinsky
Central Florida @ Boston College
PICK: 4* Boston College -10
One of our favorite settings in college football through the years comes up in this one, and yet it is one that we have never developed a catch phrase for. A “No-Sizzle” favorite? We will have to do better. What we have is a superior team that brings a defense that can absolutely dominate the opposing team’s offense, and the mind-set to do so. But because they lack sex appeal, the number is short.
The public is always enamored with big favorites that are explosive on offense, since those teams can score into the 40’s and 50’s to break games wide open. As such, the oddsmakers have to make particular adjustments for those settings. But the favorite that can completely shut down the opponent often has an even better chance of covering the spread; they are just not as likely to do it in explosive fashion. That is Boston College this week. The Eagle front seven on defense is among the best in the nation, and through the first two games the defense has allowed only 17 points, 24 first downs and 485 yards. Those games were against opponents that had mobile QB’s (Justin Edelman for Kent State and Josh Nesbitt for Georgia Tech), and dynamic lead RB’s (Eugene Jarvis for Kent and Jonathan Dwyer for GT). Now they face a young Central Florida offense that has neither. In fact, the Golden Knights do not have much of anything offensively.
We do not think much of Michael Greco at QB. We do not think much of his receivers. And in all of the years that we have charted college football, falling down from the 2,567 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s of Kevin Smith, to a current RB corps in which the top three on the depth chart are all freshmen, is one of the biggest single-position drop-offs we have seen. Even the OL only brought back two starters from LY. So how has this played out? In the opener against lowly South Carolina State they managed only 318 yards, and it was 7-0 well into the 4th quarter of a 17-0 win. As for that overtime thriller vs. South Florida, go back and review. Even with the added possession in O.T. they could muster only 12 first downs and 226 yards, and the game would likely have ended 24-10, with their only touchdown coming on a punt return, if South Florida had not set up the late sequence by throwing an ill-timed interception with a little more than three minutes left.
Yes, there should be some concerns about the Boston College offense, after three second-half turnovers turned their game around vs. Georgia Tech. But as we wrote in the first paragraph, the “mind-set” is right where we want it to be. The Eagles have had two weeks to build up some frustrations off of the Tech loss, and with only Rhode Island on deck there is absolutely no holding back. That means that they bring a knock-out punch to the table against an opponent that clearly has a glass jaw.
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