9-20-08

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 07:07 AM

Re: 9-20-08

Dr.Bob CFB

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Just 2 College Best Bets this week (and 4 Strong Opinions), but I should have more starting next week when my math model kicks in.

Rotation #333 Iowa (+1) 2-Stars at -1 or better.
Rotation #389 Kent State (+3) 2-Stars at +1 or more.

Strong Opinions on Florida St -4, Iowa State +2 1/2, San Jose State +8 1/2, and Arizona -3.

I lean with West Virginia -3 tonight.

2 Star Selection
**Iowa 24 PITTSBURGH (-1.0) 16
09:00 AM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
Pittsburgh has faced two MAC teams and has out-gained Bowling Green and Buffalo by just 5.0 yards per play to 4.5 yppl in 2 home games, which isn’t very good considering the Falcons and Bulls would combine to be out-gained by an average of 0.7 yppl on the road by an average team. Pitt has been a below average team so far this season and their solid defense is being wasted by an offense that isn’t any better than last year’s sorry attack. Pitt has a decent running back in LeSean McCoy, but his career average of 4.7 ypr is only average for a running back and the Panthers still can’t throw the ball. Bill Stull has averaged only 5.2 yards per pass play in 2 games against two below average pass defenses and I don’t see the Panthers’ offense doing much damage against a good Iowa defense that has yielded just 4.1 yppl in 3 games. Two of those games were against bad offensive teams Maine and Florida International, which scored a combined 3 points, but the Hawkeyes also allowed just 3 points and 4.9 yppl to a pretty good Iowa State offense. Iowa ’s offense has rebounded from an injury plagued 2007 campaign and has produced 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl on the road to an average team (all of those games were at Iowa ). The Hawkeyes have two capable quarterbacks Jake Christensen and Ricky Stanzi and two good running backs in Shonn Greene and Jewel Hampton, who have combined for 485 yards at 6.5 ypr. I do give Pitt a slight edge defensively but Iowa has a much better offense and better special teams and my ratings favor the Hawkeyes by 3 ½ points (11 ½ points using this year’s games only). Iowa also applies to a solid 61-28-2 ATS game 4 situation that plays on unbeaten teams. I’ll take Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

2 Star Selection
** Kent State 33 UL LAFAYETTE (-3.0) 27
04:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
Kent has been out-scored by an average of 17.3 to 24.0 despite out-gaining their foes 5.5 yards per play to 5.4 yppl. The problem has been a -5 in fumbles lost margin, which is mostly just random bad luck for the Flashes. If Kent doesn’t fumble the ball away more than their opponent then they should win this game against a UL Lafayette team that has major trouble defending the run (637 rushing yards at 6.2 yards per rushing play allowed in their first two games). Kent State running back Eugene Jarvis ran for 1669 yards at 6.0 ypr last season and had 190 yards at 5.4 ypr against Boston College and Iowa State before injuring his ankle early against Delaware State last week. Jarvis played a bit on the bad ankle, but was taken out as a precaution and should be able to play at close to 100% today. Jarvis teams with running quarterback Julian Edelman to give the Golden Flashes a very effective rushing attack that should have no trouble running against UL Lafayette today. Lafayette can also run the ball with RB Tyrell Fenroy and QB Michael Desormeaux, who both ran for over 1000 yards last season, and the Ragin’ Cajuns should have good success on the ground as well against a sub-par Kent defensive front. Overall my ratings make this game a pick and my reason for the Best Bet on Kent State , aside from the 3 points of line value, is a very strong 53-6-1 ATS statistical match-up indicator that applies to Kent State in this game. I’d favor UL Lafayette by 3 ½ points if Jarvis doesn’t play with his bad ankle, so the line is fair even in a worst case scenario. I’ll take Kent State in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more. I'll also lean over (50 points).

Strong Opinion
Arizona (-3.0) 28 UCLA 20
12:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
UCLA was humiliated 0-59 at BYU last week and they were lucky to win their opener against Tennessee , as the Bruins were out-gained 4.0 yards per play to 4.9 yppl by the Volunteers. UCLA still has a solid defense, despite the 59 points they allowed last week (they gave up 6.3 yppl to a BYU team that would average 6.7 yppl at home against an average defensive team), but the Bruins have a horrible offensive line that’s paved the way for just 1.3 yards per rushing play. Quarterback Kevin Craft has been about average after adjusting for the opposing pass defenses faced, but the UCLA offense is well below average with that sad rushing attack. Arizona has a good defensive squad that has yielded just 4.0 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average team and the Wildcats should limit the Bruins’ scoring opportunities. Arizona ’s offense was a bit sloppy last week (3 fumbles lost) against a very good New Mexico defense, but Arizona has averaged 6.3 yppl in 3 games this season versus teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team, so the Wildcats should muster a decent attack against UCLA’s good defense. My ratings favor Arizona by 3 points in this game (using this year’s games only would favor the Wildcats by 11 ½ points) and the Wildcats apply to a solid 55-27-1 ATS bounce-back situation at -3 points or better. I’ll consider Arizona a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and I’d take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

Strong Opinion
FLORIDA ST. (-4.0) 26 Wake Forest 16
04:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
Florida State has beaten up on two bad teams, but winning by scores of 69-0 and 46-7 is impressive regardless of the opponent and the Seminoles look vastly improved offensively with quarterback Drew Weatherford finally on the bench of 3 seasons of mediocrity. The offense really played well last season when Xavier Lee was at quarterback for 3 ½ games and replacing Weatherford with Christian Ponder should help the offense thrive this season. Florida State has the talent to be a good offensive team and they’ve averaged 8.4 yards per play in their first two games against teams that would allow a combined 7.0 yppl on the road to an average team. Florida State will be tested today by a very good Wake Forest defense today, but I don’t think the Seminoles will need to score too many points to win this game against a mediocre Wake Forest attack that has managed just 4.8 yppl against mediocre defensive teams Baylor and Ole’ Miss. Florida State’s defense is dealing with a number of suspended players for the first 3 games, but they should still be at least average defensively without those players, which is more than good enough to keep the Demon Deacons’ sub-par attack in check. My ratings favor Florida State by 4 points, so the line is fair, and the reason for siding with the Seminoles is a very strong 64-19 ATS situation that they apply to. Wake Forest does have a good record as an underdog under coach Jim Grobe (31-16-1 ATS), so I’ll consider Florida State a Strong Opinion from -5 to -3 ½ and I’d take the Seminoles in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.

Strong Opinion
San Jose St. 20 STANFORD (-8.5) 23
06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
San Jose State is an underrated team that is pretty good on offense and better than average defensively, so taking more than a touchdown against a sub-par Stanford team looks like a pretty good play. The scores of San Jose State’s first two games - as a 13-10 win over Division 1AA UC Davis and a 12-35 loss at Nebraska – didn’t look too good, but the Spartans were the much better team in their opener after they discovered former Cal quarterback Kyle Reed was the man they needed under center and they were only out-gained 5.3 yards per play to 5.5 yppl by a good Nebraska team. The Spartans then dominated San Diego State 35-10 in a game in which they ran for over 300 yards, averaged 5.8 yppl, and allowed just 3.2 yppl. For the season the Spartans’ defense has yielded just 4.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average defense. Coach Tomey has his best defensive line in 4 years in San Jose and the secondary is good once again with 2nd Team All-WAC CB Christopher Owens and former Oregon State starter CB Coye Francies shutting down opposing receivers. San Jose State’s offense is led by Reed, who came off the bench to lead the comeback in week 1 and has averaged a decent 5.8 yards per pass play, and star back Yonus Davis, who missed all of last season but has rushed for 1988 yards in his career at 5.9 ypr (7.1 ypr this season). Stanford has a better than average defense and I project just 4.8 yppl for San Jose State after adjusting for the loss of star WR Kevin Jurovich, who missed last week and is out indefinitely with mono. While 4.8 yppl is not good, it is better than the 4.7 yppl that my ratings project for Stanford in this game. The Cardinal have one good player on offense, RB Tony Gerhart (259 yards at 5.2 ypr), but the rest of the running backs have been horrible and quarterback Tavita Pritchard has averaged a pathetic 4.3 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average QB). San Jose State has been good defending the run (3.2 yards per rushing play allowed) and they’ve been good against the pass, so I just don’t see Stanford moving the ball very consistently in this game. San Jose State ’s good defense actually sets them up in a very good 60-19-3 ATS statistical indicator that plays on good defensive teams as underdogs. My only issue with this game is San Jose State’s horrible special teams, which may cost them a touchdown at some point in this game to go along with a couple of missed field goals (SJS kickers are 1 for 6 from 30 or more yards). San Jose State’s bad kicking leads to a less efficient scoring offense than their yardage numbers would suggest and my ratings favor Stanford by 8 points - and by 9 ½ points if the Spartans continue to be as horrible as they’ve been in special teams – so the line looks fair. San Jose State can win this game if their special teams don’t cost them a touchdown or more and I’ll consider San Jose State a Strong Opinion at +7 or more and I’d take the Spartans in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 or more.

Strong Opinion
Iowa St. 28 UNLV (-2.5) 24
06:00 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-08
UNLV is coming off a 23-20 overtime win as a 22 ½ point underdog at Arizona State, but they weren’t actually that impressive in that game, as the Rebels averaged just 4.7 yards per play on offense while allowing the Sun Devils 6.3 yppl – stats that would normally result in about a 17 point loss. Iowa State , meanwhile, lost 5-17 on the road against a very good Iowa team and the Cyclones played that game pretty evenly at 4.9 yppl gained and 4.9 yppl allowed to the Hawkeyes. Iowa returned a punt for a TD and Iowa State managed just 3 points on 6 trips inside the Iowa 30 yard line, so that game should have been much tighter. Last week’s misleading scores involving these teams have supplied us with line value in favor of Iowa State in this game, as the Cyclones would have been about a 2 or 3 point road favorite had this game been played prior to last week’s results. My ratings favor Iowa State by 3 points and the math favors the Cyclones by 6 points using this year’s games only. UNLV should be able to run the ball against a soft Iowa State run defense, but the Cyclones defend the pass well and ISU quarterback Austen Arnaud (7.9 yards per pass play) should have an easy time picking apart a UNLV secondary that has allowed 7.8 yppp this season. UNLV hasn’t been good in competitive games under coach Mike Sanford, as the Rebels are just 1-11 ATS in 4 years under Sanford when not an underdog of 8 points or more (1-6 ATS as a favorite) and 0-4 straight up as a favorite of 6 points or less. UNLV is only 8-30 straight up under Sanford , including 4-30 if they are not favored by more than 6 points or facing a Division 1AA team. Iowa State is 7-3 ATS as an underdog and 5-2 ATS after a loss under coach Gene Chizik and I’ll consider Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.

Thursday Night Game
West Virginia (-3.0) 30 COLORADO 23
05:30 PM Pacific, 18-Sep-08
New West Virginia head coach Bill Stewart has apparently let his ego get in the way of what is best for his team, as trying to implement an offense that throws the ball about half the time is stupid considering how successful quarterback Pat White has run the spread option running offense in recent years. White has been a good passing quarterback (he averaged 7.5 yards per pass play last season), but part of the reason White has been so successful throwing the football is because opposing defenses were playing the Mountaineers to run the ball, which they did 70% of the time. It’s pretty easy to pass when the other team thinks you’re going to run, but White has struggled throwing the ball down the field now that teams are looking for the pass more. White’s average completion this season has gone for a pathetic 7.8 yards and he’s averaged just 4.9 yards per pass play against Villanova and East Carolina with the Pirates holding White to 59 passing yards at 2.8 yppp. West Virginia is still a great running team (6.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.4 yprp to an average team) with White and Noel Devine wreaking havoc on opposing defenses, so Stewart should shelve his ideas of making West Virginia more of a passing team and go back to what works. Colorado is nothing special defending the run, but the Buffaloes appear to be better than average against the pass so far this season, so I expect the Mounties to run the ball more often in this game. Colorado ’s offense has been disappointing so far this season, averaging a mediocre 5.5 yards per play against two bad defensive teams ( Colorado State and Eastern Washington ) who would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack. Sophomore quarterback Cody Hawkins is completing more passes this season (72%), but he hasn’t been able to connect deep with big play receiver Josh Smith like he did last season (Smith averaged 19.6 ypc in 2007 but just 8.8 ypc on 5 catches in 2 games this season). I still rate Hawkins as a better than average quarterback, as his low yards per completion (9.9 ypc) should go up. West Virginia’s new secondary has been just mediocre, so this may be the game that Hawkins airs it out a bit, which he’ll need to do given that the rushing attack doesn’t figure to do much damage against a good Mounties’ defensive front that’s allowed just 3.8 yards per rushing play. My ratings favor West Virginia by 7 points in this game, so I’ll certainly lean with West Virginia to bounce back from their humiliating 3-24 loss to East Carolina .

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 07:07 AM

Re: 9-20-08

BEN BURNS
UPSET AT HIGH NOON (Saturday)

I'm taking the points with FLORIDA ATLANTIC. There is little doubt that the 3-0 Gophers are improved from last season. That's not necessarily saying much though, as the 2007 Gophers won only one game and they closed out the year on a 10-game losing streak. I believe that the 3-0 record has caused the Gophers to be over-valued this week. Let's take a closer look at the three wins. This year's team began the year with a 4-point home win vs. Northern Illinois, a team which finished last year with a 2-10 record and which is currently winless. In other words, that first win wasn't all that special. Give the Gophers credit for their second win. However, it came on the road and it was against a Bowling Green team which was in "letdown mode" after a huge upset win at Pittsburgh. Like their first victory, the Gophers' third win falls into the 'nothing special' category, as it came by only 12 points vs. 1-A Montana State. Considering that Montana State had lost 69-10 the previous week, Minnesota's 35-23 victory wasn't very impressive. Today, the Gophers will face a MUCH tougher test, as they'll take on an underrated Florida Atlantic team. Like the Gophers, the Owls' record is deceiving. However, it's deceiving in the opposite manner. While Minnesota isn't as good as it's 3-0 record indicates, the Owls are actually better than their 1-2 record reflects. That's because their two losses were both on the road and they came vs. the likes of Michigan State and Texas, two teams which are both significantly better than Minnesota. In their lone game against a lessser opponent, the Owls put up 49 points, en route to a double-digit victory vs. UAB. You may remember Florida Atlantic having a solid season last year, which finished with a double-digit win over Memphis in the New Orleans Bowl. The 1-2 start notwithstanding, this year's team is arguably even better. That's because they returned a whopping 18 starters. The Owls know they can beat Minnesota too, as they upset the Gophers last year. The final score of that game was 45-42. However, a closer look shows that the Owls actually had a massive edge in total yards in that game and were up big almost the entire way. Look for them to bring plenty of confidence into this afternoon's game, taking things down to the wire with an excellent shot at another upset.

BEN BURNS
SATURDAY ANNIHILATOR

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Having already lost to Bowling Green, this game is arguably more important to the Panthers than it is to the Hawkeyes, who are off to a 3-0 start. In addition to having homefield advantage, the Panthers have the schedule in their favor. After falling to Bowling Green, the Panthers responded with a double-digit victory vs. a fairly solid Buffalo team and then had a week off to prepare for Iowa. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes are coming off a hard-fought an emotional win vs. instate rival Iowa State. While the Hawkeyes won by a score of 17-5, it was somewhat closer than the score indicates as the Cyclones missed a few field goals and were held scoreless inside the five-yard line twice. In addition to the letdown spot, it's also worth noting that the Hawkeyes have their conference opener and homecoming game on deck. While the Panthers also have their conference opener on deck, it's vs. lowly Syracuse, so isn't exactly a "look-ahead" spot. As usual, the Hawkeyes boast a solid team with a good defense. They haven't fared very well in non-conference road games in recent seasons though. In fact, they're 1-3 in true road games vs. non-conference foes the past four seasons. The losses weren't close either, as they came by a combined score of 82-23. Overall, the Hawkeyes are just 2-8 ATS (3-7 SU) their last 10 road games. This is a very experienced Pittsburgh team, one which has very big expectations. The Panthers were much better from Week 1 to Week 2 and I look for continued improvement this week. After failing to cover in last week's win vs. Iowa State last week, the Hawkeyes are now 0-7 ATS the last seven times they were coming off two or more consecutive victories. I successfully played on Louisville, a Big East team, on Wednesday night. At the time I mentioned that the public was really down on the entire Big East conference and that we were getting some additional value as a result. I feel that's the case here and that this year's Pittsburgh team will prove to be much better than people think. Including the victory vs. Buffalo, the Panthers are an impressive 13-4 SU their last 17 September home games. I feel that this is a good matchup for them and I look for them to come away with another victory. *Annihilator

BEN BURNS
BIG GAME ALERT (saturday)
SEC GOY

I'm taking the points with AUBURN. LSU has crushed two inferior opponents at home. However, Auburn has done exactly the same thing. The difference is that Auburn survived a tough conference road game at Mississippi State last week (3-2 victory) while LSU has yet to play a competitive team or a road game. That has the betting public believing that LSU is the better team, which is helping give us excellent value. However, I feel that the hard-fought game will actually work in Auburn's favor here. Of course, playing at home is also a major advantage. That's particularly true in this series where the home team has won eight straight meetings. Last year's game was played at LSU. Auburn led 17-7 at halftime but #5 LSU came back to win after scoring a touchdown on a 22 yard Matt Flynn pass with one second left in the fourth quarter. This year, in addition to getting to play at home, Auburn brought back 16 starters while LSU brought back only 12, including only five on defense. One of those five, starting linebacker Darry Beckwith, is out with an injury this week. That's significant as Beckwith is an outstanding defender who turned down a chance to go the NFL early. While LSU's defense will miss Beckwith, Auburn's defense is coming off a game in which it held the Bulldogs to a mere 116 total yards of offense. As coach Tuberville had to say: "We gave up zero first downs on 14 chances ... You can win a lot of games like that." Including last year's cover at LSU, Auburn is 8-1 ATS the last nine times it was listed as an underdog and 14-4 ATS the last 18. Auburn is also 5-1 ATS the last six times it played a game with a line ranging from -3 to +3. Meanwhile, we find LSU at just 4-10-1 ATS the last 15 times it was coming off two or more consecutive victories and an even worse 3-13-3 ATS its last 19 conference games. As stated, Auburn very nearly won on the road last year and this year's team suffered fewer losses than LSU did. Look for homefield to continue to make the difference in this series as Auburn scores the minor upset and grabs control of the SEC West. *SEC GOY

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 07:11 AM

Re: 9-20-08

Ness
Ness 20* Mississippi -7

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 09:37 AM

Re: 9-20-08

P P P

5% Purdue -10
4% New Mex +10
4% San Jose St +8

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 10:54 AM

Re: 9-20-08

Root

Chairman GOY - Tenn
No Limit PAC 10 GOY - Ariz St
Millionaire - SMU
Billionaire - Miss
Inside Circle - Auburn
Perfect Play - Toledo

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 11:13 AM

Re: 9-20-08

ppp

3 RUTGERS
3 OREG
3 HOU

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 11:31 AM

Re: 9-20-08

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (8-3 in MLB the L8 days / 54-33 run with MLB Insiders)-Day
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Blue Jays at 1:05 ET. The Red Sox may not be able to overtake the Rays in the AL East but a wild card spot is "theirs for the taking." Boston is 1 1/2 games behind first-place Tampa Bay but last year's champs can wrap up the wild card spot with a win Saturday, combined with losses by Minnesota and the New York Yankees. Beating Toronto tonight also officially eliminates the Blue Jays from any playoff consideration. Jon Lester (15-5, 3.15 ERA) has had a terrific season for the Red Sox and has been dominant against AL East opponents this year, going 9-1 with a 2.18 ERA in 14 starts (Boston is 11-3). He just beat Toronto and Halladay last Sunday in Fenway 4-3, going eight innings while allowing just one ER (I had Boston in that one). The win was his third straight, while posting an 0.87 ERA. Halladay takes an 18-11 mark (2.77 ERA) into this game and is hoping to get to 20 wins for just the second time in his career (won 22 games and the Cy Young award in 2003). He was pitching on just three days rest last Sunday and allowed only three runs (two earned) in seven innings. Interestingly, Halladay is the only pitcher with more wins against AL East foes than Lester this year, going 10-6 with a 2.97 ERA in 16 starts against division opponents. Considering last Sunday's results, this game sets up pretty well for Toronto and Halladay. As good as Lester has been this year, he's been much more effective at Fenway (10-1 with a 2.54 ERA in 16 starts / team is 14-2) than he's been on the road (5-4 with a 3.90 ERA in 15 starts / team is 7-8). Halladay really wants to win 20 and the Blue Jays sure want him to. For that to happen, he MUST win here. Expect a great effort from the veteran today. Las Vegas Insider on the Tor Blue Jays.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-CFB (19-12 or 61.3 percent ATS start to FB '08!)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Indiana at 7:00 ET. Brad Hoke is in his sixth year at Muncie, Indiana and this is the best team he's had. The Cardinals are off to a 3-0 start (first time since 1988), coming off a 7-6 season in '07, which included an International Bowl loss to Rutgers (52-30). Junior QB Nate Davis passed for 3,667 yards last year (30 TDs / 6 INTs) and has completed 75.0 percent for 916 yards through three games TY, with nine TDs and three INTs. He's really been helped by the return to health of RB MiQuale Lewis, who's been lost to injuries (dislocated shoulder in '06 and torn ACL in '07), each of the last two seasons. Lewis has 363 yards (6.1 per) through three games but who knows how long he'll stay injury-free (history says, not much longer)? Indiana's also unbeaten (2-0), as Bill Lynch enters his second year as the team's head coach. He took over last year, after Terry Hoeppner lost his battle with cancer in June of '07. Lynch led the Hoosiers to their first bowl appearance since 1993 last year and after easy wins over Western Kentucky and Murray State to open '08, a win here gets IU to 3-0 before Big 10 play begins next week (home to Michigan State). QB Kellen Lewis (66.7 / 314 YP / 2 TDs and 1 INT) is again the team's leading rusher (736 yards LY on 5.0 YPC awith 9 TDs) with 183 yards on just 10 carries (two TDs). However, he's not the only one running well, as the Hoosiers have opened the '08 season averaging an impressive 275.5 YPG on the ground (5.9 YPC), albeit against modest competition. While Ball State is 3-0, let's note that the Cards are 0-19 all-time vs current Big 10 members, with the average margin of defeat coming by 21 PPG. The Cards lost at home to Indiana in '06 (just 24-23) but by the score of 38-20 in Bloomington last year (trailed 24-0 at the half). This is not a good scheduling spot for Ball State, as the team is off a conference road game last week (a 41-24 win at Akron) and plays Kent State next week in its Homecoming game. Meanwhile, the Hoosiers had an "off week" last Saturday and will be highly motivated to open 3-0 after last year's 7-5 regular season. Lewis threw for a career-high 354 yards vs the Cardinals in last year's game (plus had four TD passes, one shy of his single-game high) and I expect him to out-duel his counterpart Nate Davis again on Saturday. The Hoosiers have dominated opponents from the MAC, posting a 32-4-1 mark all-time and that includes a 20-game winning streak. Weekend Wipeout Winner on Indiana.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* Bailout Game of the Week (8-3 MLB run the last eight days!)
My 15* is on the Colo Rockies at 8:05 ET. The Rockies made a dramatic second-half run last year and wound up in the '07 World Series. What a difference a year makes. Colorado batted an NL-high .280 last year and scored more runs (5.28 per game) than any NL team other than the Phillies. However, in '08, the Rockies have hit .264 as a team and their scoring average is down to 4.57 RPG. More importantly for us bettors, the Rockies went from being MLB's biggest "money-makers " at plus-$2,466 to falling to 26th of 30 teams against the moneyline, at minus-$1,907. The Rockies swept the D'backs in last year's NLCS but for most of this year, it's been Arizona with the upper hand. However, the D'backs have played very poorly down the stretch and enter this game 3 1/2 games behind the Dodgers, who lead the division. Arizona has completely fallen apart away from Chase Field, as last night's 3-2 loss at Coors was the team's 11th straight road defeat. Why should anything change tonight? It shouldn't and I don't expect it will. Doug Davis (6-8, 4.30 ERA) has not allowed more than three ERs in any of his last seven starts but he's picked up just win during that stretch (team is 4-3). That's what happens when the team doesn't "hit behind you." He'll be opposed by Colorado's Aaron Cook, who is finishing off the best season of his career. Cook made this year's All Star game and will take a 16-9 mark (3.95 ERA) into this contest (team is 19-12 in his starts). That's a far cry from his last two seasons, in which he went a combined 17-22, with Colorado going 20-36 in his starts. Colorado ended Arizona's season last year in the NLCS and this year, could help "drive a stake through the heart" of the team's playoffs hopes with wins Saturday and Sunday. First things first. Colorado wins tonight! Bailout Game of the Week 15* Col Rockies.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' NFL 25* (won LEGEND last Saturday with Oregon St, 45-7)
My NFL 25* is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. Everyone knows the storyline. The Cards own just ONE winning season since moving from St Louis to Arizona for the start of the 1988 season (that came in 1998). That was also the team's last postseason appearance and the Cards opened this year with the NFL's longest-active postseason drought of nine consecutive playoff-less years. So what's going on in '08? The Cards are one of 10 teams to have opened 2-0 and Kurt Warner has gone "Back to Future," looking as little like he did from 1999-2001 (well, almost). Warner's completed 70.4 percent for 558 yards with four TDs (0 INTS) and a QB rating of 128.5. In Boldin (14 catches / three TDs) and Fitzgerald (nine catches / 20.4 YPC) he has one of the NFL's best pass-catching duos plus the team's defense, ranks fifth in PPG allowed (11.5) and seventh in YPG allowed (263.5 YPG). The Cards' decision to go with Kurt Warner as their starting QB has been a good one so far, as the team's 31-point effort last week vs Miami was Arizona's 10th straight game in which it has scored at least 20 points, the longest current streak in the NFL! The Redskins come in 1-1, losing at the NY Giants in the season's first game but then beating the Saints last week (29-24). The 'Skins mustered only 209 yards in the season-opening loss to the Giants but had 455 yards against the Saints. QB Campbell looked confused vs the Giants but was 24-of-36 for 321 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) vs New Orleans, while RB Portis has been solid in both games, gaining 84 vs the NYG and 96 vs New Orleans. Moss has 12 catches and has a TD catch in five straight games, while fellow WR Randle-El has 11 catches in the first two games. TE Cooley has just six catches but don't worry, he's averaged just about 65 catches per season the last three years. Washington's defense is solid and it should get pressure on Warner. The Cards can no longer depend on James (3.5 YPC through the season's first two weeks / 3.6 YPC over his first two season with Arizona) to give them a solid running game, which means all the pressure is on Warner and his talented WRs. Washington held a very talented New Orleans offense to just 16 FDs (3-of-10 on 3rd down), 250 total yards and just two offensive TDs, as the Saints' third TD came on a 55-yard punt return by Bush. Brees, who passed for 343 yards with three TDs vs Tampa Bay, was held to just 216 yards with one TD and two INTs by the Redskins. At 2-0, the Cards could get to 3-0 with a win here. That's a significant mark, as over the last five years, 24 of the 26 teams which have opened 3-0 have made the playoffs, including all 14 teams which got to 3-0 over the last three seasons. The Cards I "know and love" will find a way to lose here. Let's note that since the 2000 season, the Cards are just 14-51 SU on the road (including their Week 1 win at San Francisco this year). A quick check of the record book shows that just TWO of those 51 losses have come by LESS than three points. NFL 25* on the Was Redskins.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (75% ATS with FB Insiders in '08!)
My Las Vegas Insider is on Tulsa at 7:00 ET. Rocky Long returned to his alma mater, taking over the reigns of the New Mexico program in 1998. The Lobos had been to just one bowl since 1961 prior to his arrival but Long led New Mexico into a bowl game in FOUR of his first nine seasons. The problem being, the Lobos went 0-4 SU and ATS in bowl games from '02 through '06. However, in his 10th season at Albuquerque ('07), Long led the Lobos to a 9-4 season, including the school's first bowl win since the 1961 Aviation Bowl, when they beat Nevada 23-0 in the New Mexico Bowl. However, his 'honeymoon' with the faithful didn't last long (pardon the pun), as New Mexico opened the '08 season with home losses to TCU (26-3) and Texas A&M (28-22). The natives had become more than a little restless in Albuquerque with the Lobos' poor start but New Mexico "eased the pain" somewhat with last week's 36-28 home win over Arizona. The Wildcats had opened the '08 season 2-0 with wins of 70-0 (Idaho) and 41-16 (Toledo) but in their first road game, turned the ball over FIVE times. New Mexico owns an excellent RB in Rodney Ferguson (back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons) and he's opened '08 with 352 yards (5.7 YPC) in three games. However, QB Donovan Porterie (3,006 YP and a 15-9 ratio LY) has not been sharp, as he's thrown for only 280 yards (in three games!) to open '08, while throwing four INTs without a TD pass. The Lobos takes to the road for the first time in '08 and will face a Golden Hurricane team which has averaged 50.5 PPG (7th-best in the nation) and 578.0 YPG (3rd-best) in winning two road games at UAB and North Texas. Granted those weren't real 'tests' but this team (nine offensive starters are back) averaged 41.1 PPG and 543.9 YPG in '07, which ranked them No. 1 in total offense. Not returning this year was QB Paul Smith (5,065 YP with 47 TDs in '07) but new QB David Johnson has opened by completing 79.0 percent of his throws for 750 yards with nine TD passes and not a single INT! Steve Kragthorpe began the turnaround at Tulsa in 2003 and he led the Golden Hurricane to three bowl games in his four years at the school. When he left for Louisville after the '06 season, his DC from 2003-05 (Todd Graham), returned from a one-year stint as Rice's head coach, to assume control of the program last year. All Graham did in his one year at Rice ('06), is end a 45-year bowl drought at the former SWC school. Graham led Tulsa to a 10-4 mark in '07, one which included a 63-7 GMAC Bowl win over Bowling Green. The Tulsa 'D" leaves a lot to be desired but I don't think New Mexico has any chance of "trading points" with Tulsa. I also expect Tulsa's defense to perform better here in its home opener than it has on the road. Tulsa was off last week and only has Division I-AA Central Arkansas up next. Meanwhile, the Lobos play their first road game of the season and have state rival New Mexico State ("The Battle of I-25") up next. Golden Hurricane win in a rout in this one. Las Vegas Insider on Tulsa.

Good Luck...Larry

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 11:56 AM

Re: 9-20-08

Brandon Lang

SATURDAY
25 Dime North Carolina (Please make note this game has seen line movement, so if your book has 3-1/2, be sure to buy the hook down to -3. Do not lay 3-1/2 points).

5 Dime Florida (Please make note to buy the hook down to -7. Do not lay 7-1/2 points).

5 Dime Wake Forest

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 01:08 PM

Re: 9-20-08

bIG aL

At 7 pm, our selection is on Tulsa minus the points over New Mexico, as Tulsa falls into a super 33-11 ATS system. What we want to do is play against any college football team in the regular season off an upset win as a 10-point (or greater) underdog, if it's matched up against an .801 (or better) non-conference foe off a straight-up win. Last week, New Mexico pulled a stunning upset when it defeated Arizona 36-28 as a 10-point dog, while Tulsa checks into its home opener tonight off two road wins to start its season. Still, New Mexico didn't impress in its first two games this season -- a 26-3 loss to TCU and a 28-22 loss to Texas A&M. And Tulsa is ranked 3rd in the nation in total offense with 578 yards; fourth in pass offense with 391 yards; and seventh in scoring with 50.5 points per game. Look for QB David Johnson, the nation's leader in passing efficiency (241.5 rating) to lead Tulsa to an easy win at H.A. Chapman Stadium tonight. Lay the points. Favorite of the Month on Tulsa.

At 7 pm (time change) on ESPN 2, our selection is on the Florida State Seminoles over Wake Forest. Bobby Bowden's team took the easy route to open its season, and wiped out two cream puffs (Western Carolina and UT-Chattanooga) by scores of 69-0 and 46-7. Though some may question this approach, from my perspective it was necessary, given the suspensions and attrition the team had to overcome. Now, of course, Florida State will get all it can handle with the 18th-ranked Demon Deacons, who surely won't sneak up on the Seminoles given Wake Forest's wins against Florida State the past two seasons. And, as a result of those two losses to Wake, the Seminoles have had this game circled on their calendar for months, and QB Christian Ponder admitted as much this past week. The Seminoles' offense certainly has been proficient in its two wins, and scored touchdowns in 12 straight possessions over those games. But just as impressive has been FSU's defense which has allowed just one score this year (on a 62-yard TD pass). And the Seminoles' defensive momentum qualifies FSU in a 26-0-3 ATS system. What we want to do is play on any home favorite of less than 5 points (or PK) that's off back-to-back games in which it allowed 7 points or less, provided it does not check in off an upset win, and its opponent has a .500 (or better) record. Look for a blowout win by FSU in Tallahassee. Lay it.

At 8 pm, on ABC TV, our selection is on the Arizona State Sun Devils plus the points over the Georgia Bulldogs. Last week, UNLV shocked Dennis Erickson's then-15th-ranked Sun Devils, 23-20 in overtime (as 23-point underdogs), so there's no doubt that ASU was looking ahead to this showdown vs. the #3 ranked Bulldogs. When teams lose as huge favorites, I don't like to back them the following week if they're installed as a favorite, but here, ASU is a mid-priced home underdog, and this situation is a perfect time to step in and grab the points with a very strong, and now underrated team. Moreover, the Pac 10 Conference has been extremely strong over the years at home, or at neutral sites vs. non-conference opposition when priced as an underdog of less than 10 points (or PK), if our Pac 10 team is not off a straight-up win, and its foe won by 6 or more points in its previous game. Indeed, in this situation, Pac 10 teams are an incredible 19-0 ATS provided they don't have a losing record. Look for the Sun Devils to shock Georgia on Saturday night. Take the points.

At 9 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Iowa State Cyclones plus the points over UNLV. Last week, the Rebels pulled the upset of the year (so far) with a 23-20 overtime win in Tempe vs. Arizona State. UNLV was a 23-point underdog in that game, and now finds itself installed as a small favorite vs. Iowa State, which lost 17-5 to Iowa as a two-touchdown underdog last week. Even though ISU lost to the rival Hawkeyes, it still outgained Iowa in yardage, but wasn't able to find the endzone. Look for the UNLV to suffer a letdown this Saturday night, as the Rebels are not only off that big win, but they have a date with cross-state rival Nevada next weekend. For technical support, UNLV is in a nasty 33-96 ATS system which goes against certain unrested home teams off an upset win as a road dog of +7 or more points. We used this system earlier this season and faded Bowling Green off its upset win at Pitt, and the Falcons then got blown out 42-17 as a small home favorite vs. Minnesota. Watch ISU do the same to UNLV. Non-Conference Game of the Month on the Cyclones.

**Mr. IWS** · 09-20-2008, 03:58 PM

Re: 9-20-08

PPP/Gavazzi

5% Purdue -10
4% New Mex +10
4% San Jose St +8

Added

5% Mich St
4% New Mex St / UTEP Over
3% Houston
3% Rutgers
3% Oregon

9-20-08

9-20-08

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