9-14-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Dave M@linsky Top of the Ticket - Total

UNDER 7.5 RUNS,CINCINNATI REDS (Arroyo)-vs- Houston Astros (Rodriguez)

4* #901 HOUSTON/CINCINNATI Under

If you are looking for two hitter pitchers right now than Wandy Rodriguez or Bronson Arroyo, you have to look long and hard. But because neither pitches for a contender, and because Arrroyo in particular is being anchored down by full-season statistics that carry a lot of unnecessary clutter, we are afforded more than fair value here, especially with all key arms in both bullpens rested and ready. Rodriguez has held the opposition to one run or less in 11 of his last 13 starts, and absolutely brilliant run. But we also get a bonus here, as he only threw 85 pitches in his last outing, and that means more than the usual freshness for this time of the season. Meanwhile Arroyo battled with carpal tunnel syndrome earlier in the season, and it led to a couple of disastrous outings that inflated his ERA. But he is at full health now, and also full confidence, working to a sparkling 1.39 over his last six starts, a span in which he has worked at least seven full innings each time. And in his last three starts from this mound he has allowed only three runs over 24.1 frames. But because he was only credited with two wins over those six games the markets paid little attention, instead using his full-season numbers as an anchor to weigh him down. Neither Jose Valverde nor Francisco Cordero worked yesterday, as was the case with the prime set-up men. That means quality pitching from both sides in every inning of this one, and two struggling offenses will be hard-pressed to make anything happen.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Bobby Maxwell Monday's winner... 300-Unit NFL Monday Night Mismatch - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTSThere's no way the Patriots don't come out tonight and put on a spectacular offensive show. They are loaded on offense and with Tom Brady back at QB, they are motivated to prove they're the best team, not only in the AFC, but in the entire NFL.New England has won 11 straight times against Buffalo and most of those games have been blowouts. The average score over those 11 games is 29-9 for the Patriots and the last two times Brady has faced the Bills, New England has outscored them 94-17.Brady already had plenty of weapons at his disposal with WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker, but now he's added veteran RB Fred Taylor and WR Joey Galloway to go with the explosive unit. Defensively, the Patriots are getting younger and might have a little trouble, but they shouldn't be too bad against the offensively-challenged Bills. Buffalo RB Marshawn Lynch is a star in the making, but he'll be out this game with a three-game suspension after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor gun charge in March. The Bills' first-team offense managed just three points in 15 preseason series and their offensive coordinator was fired Sept. 4. So this team is a train wreck coming in to face the Pats. New England is on ATS runs of 36-16-1 against the AFC East and 4-1 on Monday night. Buffalo is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against division rivals and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 overall. The Bills are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to New England and 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings with the Pats overall.
This one is going to get ugly, quickly. Look for a final of 35-13 as New England cruises to this win and cover.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Savannah Sports


Todays Selections
NFL Football
3 (***) Oakland Under 42.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Jim Feist
Inner Circle SD
5* Sd Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Sebastian

10* TORONTO
10* PITT
10* MIL
20* CINN
20* SD ARIZ UNDER
20* LAA


10* CHARGERS
50* BUFFALO NE UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Kelso

Football:
10 units Patriots
10 units Chargers
5 unit parlay

Baseball:
15 units Tigers
10 units Angels,
5 units Padres

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Frank Patron
10,000 unit lock

Over 42.5 San Diego at Oakland

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Al DeMarco
Monday's Play 5 Dime Two-Team Teaser

New England & San Diego - Reduce the price you're laying with both favorites

The Patriots are laying between 11 and 12 points. Using the standard six points you get in a 2-team teaser, reduce them to a favorite of between 5 and 6 points.

The Chargers are favored by around 10 to 11 at Oakland. Reduce them to -4 to -5 versus the Raiders.

As for New England, this is a team that has won 11 in a row SU in the series, going 9-2 ATS in that period with five consecutive covers. And, the Patriots have held Buffalo to an average of 6.6 points a game in the last five meetings.

While this game marks the return of Tom Brady and the additions of Fred Taylor and Joey Galloway to an already explosive New England attack, it also represents the debut of a Buffalo no-huddle offense now under the direction of former Bills back-up QB Alex Van Pelt, who became offensive coordinator less than two weeks ago.

The Bills made the change in coordinators in large part because its first-string offense managed a paltry three points in 15 preseason possessions, prompting numerous complaints from players. But the coaching change will not overcome the fact that top running back Marshawn Lynch opens the season on the suspended list.

New England -11 was appealing; the Patriots laying significantly less because of the teaser is an even more attactive proposition.

Much as the Pats have dominated Buffalo in the AFC East, the Chargers have done the same versus Oakland in the AFC West. San Diego has won the last 12 meetings SU, covering 11 of those encounters. And the Bolts have reeled off ATS wins in each of their last seven visits to Oakland.

Norv Turner decided to play his veterans more this preseason than in previous years to avoid a slow start to the regular season. And a quick jump out of the gate is vital considering San Diego has Baltimore, Miami and Pittsburgh up next on the docket.

LT, who normally doesn't play in exhibition games, even saw August action. He's owned the Raiders during his career, averaging 119 yards a game against the Silver and Black.

In terms of pointspread analysis, the most relevant item pertaining to the Raiders is the fact they've dropped 30 of their last 41 home games to the oddsmakers. Getting double digits tonight would normally be a concern going against them, but reducing the price by six points via the teaser makes San Diego the choice in this contest

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

vegas runner triple dime buffalo plus the points

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Randizzle
Buffalo at New England
When: 7:00 PM ET, Monday, September 14, 2009
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts


The Bills fired Schonert because his no-huddle attack wasn't simplified enough. The new play-caller, Van Pelt, has streamlined the attack in an effort to make it run more efficiently and quickly. A faster tempo could create matchup advantages, put the Patriots' defense on its heels and wear down the front seven. The Bills need to pressure Tom Brady in this game, and although New England has a great O-line, Buffalo may create some pressure with DE Aaron Schoebel back from injury, and at the other side they acquired Aaron Maybin with their first round draft pick. Brady may be healed, but he is going to be favoring his leg anytime a Dlinemen gets pressure, and possibly rush his passes. Also, with the addition of T.O., and the speed of Lee Evans, Trent Edwards will have the opportunity to get the ball down field and create some mismatches. On the other Hand, the Bills have 3 rookie O-linemen starting (very risky). But the Patriots front 7 is a little softer than last year. I see the Patriots taking this one easily, but more than likely the Bills will stay within the number. Either the whole game, or get an easy backdoor cover.

* Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.
* Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
* Patriots are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.
* Patriots are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.


I'm Taking 1*Buffalo Bills +13


San Diego at Oakland
When: 10:15 PM ET, Monday, September 14, 2009
Where: McAfee Coliseum, Oakland, California


The Oakland Raiders are like "Real World" or "The Hills" of the NFL. Nothing but controversy and problems over and over and over again. Al Davis is worse than Jerry Jones at trying to run his football team, and I dont see why anything changes now. Most recently, Richard Seymour, who was traded from New England last week for a 2011 first round draft pick, did not report to the team when he was told. He has recently apologized and said he would be ready for Monday. Everything seems fine, but this is just another example of Oakland not being able to control their situations. They have gone through 5 coaches in the last 6 seasons with an NFL worst record of 24-72 over that span. My only copncern is that all the first round talent they have been acquiring over the last few years may all come together at once and surprise the hell out of all of us. But I don't see that happening tonight. The Chargers come in with momentum. Sure they lost to Pittsburgh(eventual Super Bowl Champions) in the divisional round last year, but that was after a 4 game winning streak just to make it into the Playoffs. Rivers is becoming a seasoned veteran in the league and proving himself to be a consistent Winner in the NFL. Tomlinson has been under criticism as of late, recording career lows in rushing yards and TDs last season. (Still over 1,000 yds and 12 TDS). He will be looking to make a statement in this opening game. San Diego comes in on the road and remonds the Raiders and their fans what kind of a program they have there.


SAN DIEGO is 14-3 against the spread versus OAKLAND
SAN DIEGO is 4-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons


I'm Taking 1*San Diego -10

Good Luck Guys,
Randizzle

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Teddy covers 3* Chargers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Score
300 SD

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-14-09

Lenny Del Genio

20* AFC West Game of the Month

The Chargers have absolutely dominated the Raiders ever since the Silver and Black's Super Bowl season of '02-'03 (remember that?!), winning the last 11 head-to-head meetings SU. Since that same season, Oakland has gone a pitiful 13-33 ATS in the home dog role, a big reason why we've seen this line moe so much. Amazingly, during their 11-game losing skid to San Diego, the Raiders have covered the spread just once, suffering eight double-digit losses during that span. They have opened 2 of the L3 seasons as the 2nd game of the MNF doubleheader and were blown out both times, 27-0 by San Diego in '07 and 41-14 by Denver last year. Both games, like this one, were at home. The Raiders come off a terrible camp where their HC Tom Cable got into legal trouble. They have no threats at WR and for some ungodly reason released their best QB, Jeff Garcia. Then you have the Richard Seymour debacle. Oakland DC John Marshall calls a lot of blitzes, which will leave the defense open to allowing big plays. On offense, the Raiders will look to throw the ball long against a great Chargers secondary, so look for a lot of 3rd and longs in this game. After going 8-8 SU last year, San Diego won't be screwing around with the division crown this year. San Diego is our 20* AFC West Game of the Month.``