9-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Carlo Campanella
NCAA-F | Sep 19
Florida State vs. BYU BYU
-7-101 at 5dimes > 1d.
BYU upset highly ranked Oklahoma in their season opener, 14-13, but didn't experience a let down last Saturday when cruising to a 54-3 road victory at Tulane. They'll host Florida State for their home opener this weekend knowing that they've won 5 of their last 8 games hosting BCS teams. In fact, BYU enters their home opener with a 21-3 home record under Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall. Florida State opened their season playing back-to-back home games, but is only 1-1, with their only win coming against a very over-matched Jacksonville State squad. Lay the Touchdown as we find BYU at 5-1 ATS during their last six home games as Favorites of 8 points or less!

7* Play On BYU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Brad Diamond Sports Free College Football Selection
Play on: LSU (910) over UL-Lafayette

The Fighting Tigers are now on a serious 0-8 ATS run in Baton Rouge, however, that could change on Saturday night when the local Cajuns come calling. ULL has the offensive weapons to test the LSU ever changing defense. But, some food for thought before executing the exchange rate at the Hilton. Head coach Les Miles has kept a conservative approach on offense in the initial games versus Washington and Vanderbilt. On Saturday, we expect that to change for the better. QB Jordan Jefferson will add big play types at full speed this week, including athlete Russell Sheppard and wide out Reuben Randle. Also, we have heard the running attack will feature a new wrinkle that spreads the field. ULL does return 16 starters, but lost the heart and soul of their offense QB Mike Desormeaux who managed over 2,000 yards in total offense in 2008. For a real blowout....MOVE ON THE TIGERS!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Craig Trapp
NCAA-F | Sep 19
USC vs. Washington U Washington U
+18½-105 at 5dimes > 1d.
This week think USC and Washington game provides a huge trap for USC. USC goes into this game as a 21 point favorite and after a huge road win at Ohio State. Most do not realize how tough it is for a West Coast team to play a huge game in the Eastern Time Zone. The game with Ohio State was a very hard fought game for the Trojans and even though they pulled out a win they came out pretty banged up. Yes we all know that USC is much more talented then Washington but the Trojans will fall victim to a let down and will be lucky to pull out a win here. Oh and don't forget that starting QB Barkley most likely will not play with a shoulder injury.

Also in the favor of Washington this week is they know USC very well as new head coach Steve Sarkisian and with former Carroll assistant Nick Holt as defensive coordinator. These two know USC schemes forward and backwards and will have Washington poised to take advantage of them. If anyone watched the first game of year the Huskies look a ton better against a very good LSU team and easily covered the spread. Think they easily cover again this week against a USC team that is just looking to get out with a win. The offense will move the ball the key will be if they can hold the turnovers below 2 for the game. The defense still lack the elite playmakers but they are sound tacklers and all rally to the ball every play. Washington was shut out and embarrassed last year and these players have not forgot. USC better come to play or they will once again lose a game to a 14 plus point underdog. SCORE USC 20 - WASH 17

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Robbie Gainous
NCAA-F | Sep 19
Arizona U vs. Iowa Arizona U
+5½-110 at SIA > 1d.
Each team has a conference game on deck next week with the Hawkeyes having to make a trip to Happy Valley for a huge game against the Nittany Lions. Not only do they face that trip they are coming off a big game against in-state rival Iowa State Cyclones last week, a game in which they won 35 to 3. Not sold on their trigger man Ricky Stanzi and injuries to their OL have caused problems in their rushing attack and this is a big problem because they really do not have a consistent passing game. Iowa is 0-5 ATS at home versus non-conference opponents when laying less than twenty-two points and 0-3-1 ATS the week after facing the Cyclones. Arizona enters today’s game outgaining their first two opponents by almost 300 yards per game with RB Nic Grigsby rushing for 325 yards on 8.6 yards per carry so far this season. The Cats starting QB Matt Scott will be making his first start on the highway but with Grigsby and Antonin running the ball he should have the tools needed to capture a surprising win in Kinnick on Saturday. Teams coming off two SU wins but failing to cover the spread have not been given the respect they deserve as we see in this CFB System that tells us In Game 3, play ON a road underdog of 3½-13 points off 2 SU wins & ATS losses. These teams are 8-0 ATS and average covering the number by 17.9 points per game since 1991. We also want to Play ON a road underdog of 2-22½ points before 2 conference road games vs. an opponent off a non-conference road SU win. These road underdogs are a perfect 14-0 ATS and average covering the spread by 11.0 points per game. We will take the points here with the Cats as they surprise the Hawkeyes in Iowa on Saturday.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* ARIZONA WILDCATS 20 IOWA HAWKEYES 12

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Steven Budin-CEO

SATURDAY'S PICK

NEW YORK CREW



25 DIME RELEASE



2-Team Teaser - Clemson & BYU



Using the standard six points you receive in a 2-team teaser, reduce the price you are laying with both favorites, Clemson and BYU.



Clemson, as I write this, is about a -7 chalk so make the Tigers -1 if that is the line you are starting with as well.



BYU is laying around -8 to -8 1/2 to Florida State. Make the Cougars a -2 to -2 1/2 point favorite in the teaser.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

ROB GAINOUS
Pro Info Sports College Football FREe-LERT:
Game: UTEP -13.5 @ New Mexico State 8:00PM EST (CBS)
Analysis:

These two schools are less than fifty miles apart which certainly adds to the rivalry. The host in this series is 8-2 SU but only 5-5 against the number with the visitor having covered the last four straight. New Mexico State has struggled recently against the number posting a record of 2-6 ATS their last 8 overall and 8-15 ATS since the 2007 season. UTEP is 3-1 ATS their last four road openers but have struggled as road favorites of late. We believe they have the edge on both sides of the ball and also on special teams which should translate into a SU and ATS victory over New Mexico State on Saturday night.

UTEP has Texas on deck and that qualifies them in one of our Power Systems that says “From Game 2 on, play ON a non-conference team (not a favorite of more than 37 points or underdog of 6+ points) before playing at Texas and not off a SU loss of 45+ points vs. an opponent not off a SU loss as a home favorite of more than 5 points”. This system is 11-0 SU and ATS and averages covering the spread by 15.2 points per game.

We also note that teams coming off two home spread losses to start the season losing the first game straight up but winning the second game straight up have continued to struggle in their third game of the season. These teams are 0-9-1 ATS and average losing to the number by 9.1 points per game.

We will back the visitor here as they field the better overall team and have significant technical support so lay the chalk as the Miners grab the SU and ATS victory on Saturday night in Las Cruces New Mexico.

PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: UTEP Miners 34 New Mexico State 6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

RAS

AZ St... UNDER 52' ... 2 Units
Bama... UNDER 52 ... 1
Rut ... UNDER 52 ... 1
A&M ....OVER 57' ... 1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack

Premium Plays
Matchup: Ohio State at Toledo
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Ohio State (-20.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Ohio St Over Toledo (Cleveland) - Last met in ‘98, OSU 49-0 (-37). This is a HG for Toledo but Cleveland is Tressel’s hometown and 90% of the crowd should be in Scarlet and Gray. Toledo does have a great situation as they are off an impressive Friday night whipping of Colorado (we had an easy Friday Night Marquee Winner on the Over) and catches OSU off of their last minute loss to USC with the B10 opener vs IL on deck. OSU is 14-3 as an AF. New UT HC Beckman was OSU’s DB coach in ‘05 and ‘06 and he has a veteran QB in Opelt who avg 371 ypg (62%) with a 7-2 ratio. The Rockets’ D is T-#2 NCAA with 6 int. OSU allowed true frosh QB Barkley to lead the Trojans 86/14pl scoring the gm winning TD with 1:05 left and also all’d Navy 2 late TD’s to nearly tie it up. The Bucks were outFD’d 18-10 and outgained 313-265 LW as OSU had just 90 yds after taking a 10-7 2Q lead. OSU has to focus on the run gm which is #81 NCAA (121 ypg, 3.5). UT should be confident after knocking off Colorado and beating Michigan in the Big House LY.



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Matchup: Louisville at Kentucky
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Louisville (+14 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Louisville (+) Over KENTUCKY - This game is played for the Governor’s Cup and has huge stakes in terms of recruiting. UL is 7-3 in this series (visitors 9-6 SU) but the Cats have won the last 2 (both outright upsets). UK has never beaten UL 3 years in a row. Last year UL failed to score a TD for the 1st time since 2000 and UK (+3) won 27-2 despite only a 210-205 yd edge. Both teams are off a bye. In week 1, UK dominated Miami OH 42-0 with a 488-188 yd edge. UK QB Hartline threw for a solid 222 (67%) with a 2-0 ratio. UL beat FCS Indiana St 30-10 with a 419-101 yd edge. UL QB Justin Burke (PS#12, NCSt transfer) will make his 1st road start and threw for 223 yds (55%) but with an 0-2 ratio in the opener. Burke missed his 1st 8 passes but hit 17 of 23 after that. UL has 3 DL returning this week (missed opener). UK is on a 1-5 run as a HF and in this series UK has only been favored twice the L10Y and lost both outright.



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Matchup: So. Cal at Washington
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Washington (+20.5 -110)
Line Source: STRATOSPHERE
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

WASHINGTON (+) Over USC - New UW HC Sarkisian helped the Huskies earn their 1st win in 16 tries LW vs Idaho as QB Locker (287 ypg, 60%, 5-1 ratio) has proven to be a legit passing threat over the L2W in the new Husky offense. Sarkisian was the Trojans’ OC the L2Y so he has great knowledge of the USC players and preparation. LY in the 1st gm after the announcement of Willingham’s termination, USC shutout UW 56-0 at the Coliseum as the Huskies failed to get past the Trojan 45. USC is just 1-6 ATS in P10 road openers and is off their huge, last minute win in Columbus as true frosh QB Barkley (195 yds, 48%, 1-1 ratio) matured quickly against a stellar OSU def (lost LY at Oregon St as a 25 pt fav the week after Ohio St). The Trojan def has been dominant the L2Y as they have kept 7 of their L/10 opp under 200 yds incl surrendering just 184 to UW LY. They are, however, just 2-7 ATS in the 2nd of B2B RG’s, and meet an energized UW program that is the most improved team in the country.



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Matchup: Michigan St at Notre Dame
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Notre Dame (-10 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

NOTRE DAME Over Mich St - The visitor had won 7 in a row SU prior to LY’s MSU 23-7 win in East Lansing. ND had 3 TO’s deep in MSU terr and missed 2 FG’s. ND has faced the Spartans 8 straight years after playing Mich. MSU’s 6 str wins in South Bend is a record for an Irish opponent. Both teams were upset victims LW with the Irish allowing Michigan to drive 57 yd for the gm winning TD with :11 left after Weis called 2 passes in the series prior which saved UM 2 TO’s. The Irish finished with 27-21 FD and 490-430 yd edges and allowed a 94 yd KR TD. QB Clausen is #3 NCAA pass eff avg 326 ypg (66.7%) with a 7-0 ratio. WR Floyd (11, 320) is #2 NCAA rec ypg despite missing the last 6:22 LW while getting stitches in his knee. CM scored 9 pts in the final :40 capping a 72 yd TD drive, rec an onside kick missing a 47 yd FG but getting a 2nd chance to hit the gm winning 42 yd FG with :03 left to beat MSU for the 1st time S/’92. The Chips finished with 27-17 FD, 33:25-26:35 TOP and 418-316 yd edges. Cousins is #6 NCAA in pass eff avg 174 ypg (66%) with a 4-0 ratio despite being victimized by several drops. He QB’d the entire 2H LW and is likely to get his 1st road start here. The Irish have edges on both sides (#4-57 off) and (#21-29 D) and need to snap MSU’s streak if Weis wants to stay on the Irish sidelines.



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Matchup: Tulsa at Oklahoma
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Oklahoma (-16.5 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures.

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Matchup: San Diego State at Idaho
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: San Diego State (-3 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

San Diego St Over IDAHO - SDSt leads the series 2-1 SU/ATS. The HT is 3-0 SU/ATS in this series (‘96, ‘02 and ‘06). This is UI’s home opener in the Kibbie Dome, which is in stark contrast from the sunshine and grass field of the NFL’s Qualcomm Stadium that the Aztecs call home. The Vandals are hosting just their 3rd non-conf FBS game in the L/5Y having gone 0-2 SU/ATS in such a matchup with losses to NI in ‘07 (42-35, -3) and WM in ‘08 (51-28, +8). UI is on a 6-2 ATS run after ending a 4-18 ATS skid from mid-’06 thru mid-’08 and the Vandals are on a current 3-0 ATS run at home. SDSt has the edge on off (#92-107), def (#95-112) and ST (#67-111). LY SDSt led 38-3 after 3Q outgaining UI 603-351 in a 45-17 win (-11’). SDSt QB Lindley hit 24-38 for 433 yds and 4 TD and the Aztecs picked off three passes. SDSt is just 5-25 SU on the road (lost L/8) and 0-3 ATS as an AF over 6 yrs. The Aztecs haven’t been an AF S/‘07 and haven’t covered as one S/‘03. Idaho has a trip to NI on deck while SDSt has its MWC opener at Air Force up next.



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Matchup: Nevada at Colorado State
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Nevada (-3 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Nevada Over COLORADO ST - CSU leads the series 8-1 SU but is 3-5 ATS. The Rams won all 8 meetings prior to their 28-10 loss (+3) in Reno in ‘06 in the last meeting. UN has the edge on off (#28-98) but CSU has the edge on ST (#103-115). Nevada’s “pistol” offense is capable of piling up lots of yds and pts and features a dual-threat QB, ‘08 WAC Off POY Kaepernick and two RB’s (Taua and Lippincott) who have led the WAC in rushing in each of the L/2Y. UN is coming fresh off a bye, however, following a 35-0 shutout loss in the season opener at Notre Dame where the Wolf Pack suffered just its second shutout loss in 343 gms (S/’80). UN was dead last in the NCAA pass D in ‘08 allowing 312 ypg and the Irish threw for 322 yds and 4 TD, incl strikes of 70 and 88 yds. UN is looking to rebound from an 0-4 ATS skid and has lost 3 of its L/4 gms SU. CSU started its season off with a bang defeating in-state rival Colo 23-17 (+10) in Boulder marking the first time the Rams won a game there in 23 yrs, but CSU needed a 4Q TD to squeak past FCS Weber St LW by 1 (24-23). The Rams have won 5 consec gms for the first time S/’02 and are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less (8 pts) under 2nd yr HC Fairchild. CSU is on a 5-1 ATS run going 4-2 SU during that stretch. UN has a home game with Missouri on deck while CSU has its MWC opener at BYU up next.



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Matchup: SMU at Washington St
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: SMU (-6 -110)
Line Source: M Resort
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Smu Over WASH ST - 1st meeting. Wash St has won 11 straight vs non-conf teams in Pullman by an avg of 25 ppg. These two combined for a 1-22 record vs FBS teams in ‘08 but both are much improved. Only 1 of Wash St’s losses was by less than 25 while SMU had 4 losses by 7 or less and almost beat Houston and Tulsa in CUSA play, but blew late leads. The Mustangs are off a huge road win at UAB (4H LPS Winner) that snapped a 21 game losing streak to FBS schools. SMU jumped out to a 28-7 1H lead and withstood a furious Blazer rally stopping a 2pt conv with :13 left for a 35-33 win. The Mustangs ended up being outgained slightly (448-437) but forced 5 Blazer TO’s. SMU now has 9 int in 2 games (8 all of LY). QB Mitchell threw for 353 (60%) and 3 TD, but did throw 2 int. WSU fell to Hawaii 38-20 in a “neutral” game (Seattle). The Cougs trailed 35-6 at the half and were outgained 626-403 on the night. The lone bright spot for the Cougars was RB Montgomery who rushed for 118 (6.9). This is the 2nd of B2B road games for the Mustangs who are an AF for just the 3rd time S/‘03, but they do have a bye on deck. WSU has mighty USC on deck, so they see this as their best chance for an early season win. WSU all’d 489 pass yds to a similar Run n’ Shoot attack LW, and SMU now has some swagger, so expect Wazzou’s losing woes to continue.

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Matchup: Connecticut at Baylor
Time: 5:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Baylor (-10 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

BAYLOR Over Connecticut - LY QB Griffin (PS#34) made his 1st road start on a Fri Night game in a cross country trip to Conn and did well (4 ttl TD) as Baylor (+13) led 28-24 mid-4Q and had a 377-340 yard edge. This time Griffin is exp and Baylor has 16 ret sts, is off a bye and catches UC in an unusual trip to Texas (lost to SMU 30-31 ‘89). LW UC gave up 12 4Q pts incl a GW safety with 1:32 left in their 12-10 loss to NC. The Huskies lost their QB Frazer 3Q with a knee injury and UC may be playing w/o their top LB Lutrus (check status). The UC def is all’g 258 ypg and will have to carry the team as the new offense develops. After rushing for 259 (5.3) in Wk 1 UC ran for 72 (2.1) LW. Baylor had a 17 pt 3Q lead and held on to defeat Wake on the road 24-21 (+2’) in Wk 1 outgaining the Deacons 366-269. Griffin threw for 136 (63%) with a 1-0 ratio and rushed for 41 (3.2) while RB Finley had 91 yds (6.5). Although nearly even on def (UC #41-45), Baylor has the off edge (#42-96) as well on ST’s (#15-69). Baylor returns three 1st Tm B12 defenders and 8 starters on defense. Conn is 1-7 as an AD and 0-4 SU/ATS traveling to the deep south being outscored 18 ppg. This is Baylor’s home opener (4-0 as HF) so the crowd will be excited as the Bears look to avenge LY’s loss.



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Matchup: Bowling Green at Marshall
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Marshall (+3 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

MARSHALL Over Bowling Green - Marshall was 4-2 vs BG in MAC play from (‘97-’04). BG is 19-8 after a loss. Marshall has 16 ret sts and has bowl aspirations and BG has exceeded expectations early as they have just 10 ret sts and a new HC. This is in the 2nd straight AG for BG, as the Falcons are off a strong showing at Mizzou. BG led most of the game before the Tigers scored 14 unanswered in the 4Q to get a 27-20 win. BG was only outgained 353-320 by a Mizzou tm that put up 442 yds and 37 pts vs Illinois in the opener. BG Sr QB Sheehan is avg 273 ypg (68%) with a 3-1 ratio and RB Geter has 148 (5.1). MU hung tough in the 1Q vs 14th ranked VTech, but the Herd was outscored 28-7 in the 2Q and lost 52-10. MU allowed a school-record 444 yds on the ground (8.4) and were outgained 605-252. The lone bright spot for the Herd was RB Darius Marshall who returned from a 1 game suspension and rushed for 109 (6.4), incl a 61 yd TD jaunt. BG has a huge home game vs a ranked Boise squad on deck and Marshall needs a win before heading into conf play (Memphis), so we like a Marshall squad that is 8-2-1 as a home dog since 1999.



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Matchup: Florida St at BYU
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: BYU (-7 -110)
Line Source: MIRAGE
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

BYU Over Florida St - These 2 have met twice, both BYU losses in ssn opening Pigskin Classics in ‘91 and ’00. BYU is 5-3 SU hosting BCS teams inc winning the L/2 by a combined 79-7. FSU is making a rare trip into altitude coming from sea level and traveling almost 2,100 miles. They have just 5 starters back on D and only 3 scholarship Sr’s on off. FSU had a short week LW and it showed as they barely got by JSU. QB Ponder is avg 309 ypg (61%) with a 2-1 ratio. RB Ty Jones has 99 rush yds (4.5). This is BYU’s first home game and they already have 2 wins under their belts and have won 18 straight home games. BYU had a 245-164 yd edge 1H vs then-#3 Okla when Bradford was healthy. QB Hall is avg a solid 319 ypg (71%) with a 4-3 ratio. RB Kariya has 105 rush yds (3.6). BYU has already beaten Oklahoma and is confident with QB Hall while FSU is coming off a game vs FCS Jax St in which they trailed until in the 4Q.



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Matchup: FAU at South Carolina
Time: 7:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: FAU (+21 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Florida Atl (+) Over S CAROLINA - This is a top situational game as FAU is coming off a bye while SC is between SEC games. SC also has a short week ahead as it plays Ole Miss Thursday. SC is 7-3 as a HF and 7-3 as a DD HF and this is their home opener. FAU usually uses these games (0-3 vs SEC avg loss 35 ppg) getting a lot of players action vs a quality team which helps them in conference play, but Schnellenberger talked tough about beating Texas (backfired) and may want a signature win. In their only meeting in ‘06 SC won 45-6 (-28’). SC has wins by just 10, 9, 7, 14, and 10 vs non-BCS foes in Sept and that includes 2 vs FCS Wofford. LW SC allowed 41 pts vs GA, the most since 2006, but held the advantage in yds 427-308 and FD 26-16. SC had a game winning pass broken up at the 7 with :22 left. FAU is worth the look with the generous points here.

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Matchup: Georgia at Arkansas
Time: 7:45 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Arkansas (-1 -110)
Line Source: BODOG
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

ARKANSAS Over Georgia - UGA is 30-5 on opponents home fields under Richt. In the last meeting in ‘05, UGA pulled out a 23-20 win in Athens but Ark covered easily as 19’ pt dogs. Georgia is 8-1 SU vs the Hogs. Ark is 10-6 ATS in SEC openers but LY was crushed 49-14 by Alabama as a 9 pt HD and is now 2-6 SU in them. UGA is 3-6-1 as an AF while Petrino has won his last 3 as a HD with 2 outright upsets incl LSU LY. Arkansas is the fresher squad off a FCS foe and a bye and UGA battled #9 OSU on the road and just battled for a 41-37 win over SC in their home opener LW and travels again. Ark HC Petrino admitted that his team had already spent time preparing for this gm in Aug prior to their opener vs Missouri St. Ark QB’s Mallett and Wilson set a school single gm record with 447 pass yds in their 48-10 win over Missouri St and Petrino used top RB Smith sparingly (4 carries, 43 yd) to keep him fresh for SEC action. UGA QB Cox is avg 182 ypg (59%) with a 3-2 ratio and RB Samuel has 152 (4.3).

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Matchup: Texas-El Paso at New Mexico St
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Texas-El Paso (-13.5 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

Utep Over NEW MEXICO ST - UTEP leads the “Battle of I-10” series 49-35-2 as these two interstate rivals are just 45 miles apart. These 2 have combined to avg 63 ppg in the L/9 with the L/3 decided by 6 pts or less. The HT in this series is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS, however, the visitor has covered each of the L/4 gms. NMSt has won the L/2 gms outright as a 7-pt dog in both ‘07 (44-34) and ‘08 (34-33). NMSt is on a 2-6 ATS skid and is 8-19 (just 4-19 vs FBS teams) SU and 8-15 ATS S/’07. UTEP has the edge on off (#78-120), def (#104-117) and ST (#92-100). The Miners are on a 3-1 ATS run in road openers but 0-5 ATS as an AF S/’05 with 4 outright losses. NMSt has another rivalry game on deck with a trip to in-state foe New Mexico while UTEP travels to Texas next week.



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Member Plays
Matchup: Boston College at Clemson
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Clemson (-6.5 -110)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: September 16, 2009 @ 1:33:00 PM EDT

CLEMSON Over Boston College - BC had won 5 in a row in this series but Spiller had a schl rec (for RB) 105 yds rec and then-interim HC Swinney got his 1st win 27-21 (+3’) on the road. This matchup has been decided by a ttl of 13 pts the L4Y. In last trip here, #18 BC upset #15 CU 20-17 on a 43 yd TD pass w/1:43 left, stealing the Atl Div Title. BC has a 2 QB’s still trying to determine a starter and they’re making their 1st road trip to a very hostile place. BC is 11-2 ATS as an AD but does have their 3rd HC in 4Y. BC posted their 2nd str lopsided win LW vs a non-BCS. QB’s Shinskie and Tuggle have comb for 389 yds (43%) with a 5-1 ratio. RB Harris has rushed for 181 (5.3). CU is 4-11 ATS as an ACC HF. LW WR Ford and RB Spiller showed their blazing spd after GT had taken a 24-0 lead thanks to 2 ST’s scores as Spiller took off for a 63 yd TD pass and Ford went 77 yds for a TD (both track tm). QB Parker is avg 210 ypg (47%) with a 5-2 ratio. RB Spiller has 99 rush yds (4.1) and 4 rec (17.3) despite missing most of the opener. WR Ford has 8 rec (22.4).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

CONFIDENTIAL KICK OFF WEEK #3


10 MICHIGAN STATE over *Notre Dame
Late Score Forecast:
MICHIGAN STATE 31 - *Notre Dame 28

Both teams off disappointing losses last week, but see definite edges with double-digit dog Michigan State. Few teams have played Notre Dame tougher, as the Spartans have a 10-2-1 spread mark in last 13 against ND, including a 6-0 SU mark in South Bend in that string. Young ND defensive front seven has had a bit of a rocky start, yielding
5.1 ypc against Nevada and Michigan. MSU has a crew of speedy, young backs who can take advantage of any mistakes. Spartans will likely be healthier this week as well, as C Nitchman (knee injury in opener), WR Dell (19 ypc LY; nagging shoulder injury) and speedy frosh RB Baker (missed CMU game nursing a sore knee) could all return
to action this week. ND offense clicking, but MSU can trade points.

10 *TEXAS over Texas Tech
Late Score Forecast:
*TEXAS 45 - Texas Tech 17

Can’t resist playing the revenge angle in this game. Texas Tech’s last-second Crabtree TD to win last year’s meeting still stings all Longhorn players, coaches and fans. That was Texas’ only loss of the season and cost it a spot in the BCS title game. Despite TT’s 55-10 win vs. Rice, new Red Raider QB Taylor Potts making first start on road, and receivers such as NFL first-round draftee Crabtree aren’t easily replaced. Texas has put up 50 ppg in first 2 games behind Heisman-hopeful QB Colt McCoy, and the Red Raider defense hasn’t been truly tested. Surely Longhorn safeties Gideon (who had a sure interception go through his hands with 8 secs. left in LY’s game) and Thomas, who combined for 16 tackles last season vs. TT, will have something to prove.


10 MIDDLE TENNESSEE over *Maryland
Late Score Forecast:
MIDDLE TENNESSEE 30 - *Maryland 23

CKO sources in the ACC recommend not to be overly concerned about any revenge motive Maryland might have after losing at MTSU last season. That’s because Terps have plenty of other things to worry about these days, namely, a young “D” allowing 44 ppg that’s forcing even mascot Testudo to cover his eyes after CAA rep James
Madison punctured UM’s stop unit for nearly 300 YR last week at Byrd Stadium. Those defensive shortcomings almost contributed to a shocking loss vs. FCS-level Dukes and will make it difficult for Terps to reverse a debilitating 2-13 slide their last 15 as chalk. Sun Belt sources aren’t even sure Blue Raiders will need any help from oddsmakers
now that dynamic jr. QB Dasher has proved such a quick study in new o.c. Franklin’s spread (Dasher 231 YP and 89 YR in MTSU’s dominating 31-14 win last Saturday vs. capable Memphis).


10 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Fla. Atlantic
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTH CAROLINA 42 - Fla. Atlantic 10

SEC sources report South Carolina players greatly encouraged by their valiant comeback try in 41-37 loss at Georgia (trailed 38-23 in 3rd Q), failing to convert on 4th-down from the Bulldog 4-yd. line in the final minute. And with ‘Cock HC Spurrier demanding a razor-sharp performance prior to visit from rising Ole Miss, compelled to lay 3
TDs vs. outmanned FAU, bereft of proven defensive playmakers (3 starters back; allowed 490 yds. in 49-3 blowout at Nebraska). Expect USC’s evolving jr. QB Garcia (313 YP vs. Bulldogs) and his plethora of quality receivers to play pitch-and-catch vs. vulnerable Owl 2ndary, with a RS frosh manning the key SS position. Meanwhile, Owls
stationary, pocket-passing 6-5 sr. QB R. Smith, who gave himself a failing grade for his Husker effort, unlikely to have “passing” marks vs. aggressive USC stop unit, spearheaded by head-hunting LB Norwood. Spurrier trounced the Owls 45-6 in 2006. Deja vu in 2009. Note, FAU 5-13 as DD road dog since ‘04.

NINE-RATED GAMES: NAVY (+8) at Pitt—Middies at their best as a road dog (31-16)...WESTERN MICHIGAN (-17) vs. Miami-O.—RedHawks
(outscored 90-0) still looking to “dent the dish” in 2009; Western back at home after two losses visiting Big Ten teams... KANSAS (-21) vs. Duke— Jayhawks packing in the crowds in Lawrence; KU now 21-5 last 26 when favored...UAB (+7) at Troy—Blazers have the QB and coaching to exploit Trojan defense that has suffered losses in the back seven..

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

POWER SWEEP by Phil Steele

PS won POW w/ UNLV last week and went 2-3 on others with a net loss of 0.8 units on star basis

NCAA Star Selections:

4* UNLV over Hawaii - UH leads the series 12-6 SU and is 4-2-1 ATS vs LV, incl a current 3-1 run. UH has an edge on off (#48-71) but LV has the edge on def (#73-111) and ST (#72-118). UH finds itself in a similar situation here as in its last trip to Vegas (‘07) as the Warriors are again in the 2nd of B2B AG’s and stayed on the Mainland throughout the week. The Run-&-Shoot is back in gear at UH as QB Alexander is avg 379 ypg (69%) with a 6-1 ratio and also leads the team with 87 yds rush (4.6) and WR Salas has 14 rec (26.8!) and 2 TD and already has 375 yds in 2 gms (188 ypg). UH is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the 2nd of B2B AG’s S/’05 and the Warriors are on a current 8-3 ATS run overall. LV has its MWC opener at WY on deck while UH has a bye. The Rebs are off a heart-breaking loss to Oreg St, losing on a 33 yd FG with :07 left. QB Clayton slightly injured his knee and left in the 4Q and UNLV rallied for 2 TD’s to go ahead 21-20 (4:16) behind bkup Clausen. Clayton is avg 192 ypg (72%) with a 2-1 ratio and his top target has been Wolfe with 14 rec (11.3). Clausen is experienced though, leading LV to a 2-1 record to end ‘08, so if Clayton is out (check status) the off will not miss a beat. This is LV’s 4th time S/’04 hosting 3 consec HG’s and the Rebs are 3-0 SU/ATS in that 3rd gm. With LW’s results there’s is added value which makes for a great Sept ember 5H. FORECAST: UNLV 41 Hawaii 23

3* TEXAS A&M over Utah St - Both schools are off a bye. A&M won a 4H on these pages 2W ago in dominant fashion beating up on NM 41-6 (-14’). Big difference from LY as A&M looked near perfect in Sherman’s West Coast system (606 yds) and smothering def (all’d just 231 yds). QB Johnson threw for 349 yds (76%) with a 2-0 ratio. Utah St hasn’t played in 16 days but looked good vs rival Utah (covered as 21 pt AD, trailed just 14-10 after 1Q). A&M has 16 ret sts and figures to use non-conf to gain confidence in the 2nd yr under Sherman. A&M is 12-2 SU and 7-4 ATS in non-conf HG’s winning by an avg of 29 ppg but will not take this game lightly after losing to Ark St and barely getting past Army at home in ‘08. Utah St is also a vet squad (16 ret sts) but like A&M LY are dealing with new schemes from a 1st yr HC. Utah St is 5-14 ATS as a dog vs BCS tms and has dropped 7 straight road gms (10-5 ATS as an AD). A&M wore down NM 2W ago and should do the same here in the heat and humidity of TX (avg temp high 80’s, low 70’s in Logan). A hungry team that needs big wins would make a great September GOM. FORECAST: TEXAS A&M 48 Utah St 20

3* Air Force over NEW MEXICO - The Lobos are not off to a good start in the Mike Locksley era losing both games by 30+ pts. We have gone against the Lobos twice this season using a 4H Key Selection on Texas A&M in the first week and a 2H Key Selection on Tulsa LW winning both easily as the Lobos are struggling offensively and defensively with new schemes. Meanwhile, AF is coming off a tough loss to Minny LW blowing a 7 pt lead in the second half and usually play well on the road early in the season going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in the MWC road opener. AF has also won 4 of 5 vs NM. LY NM forced 3 early TO’s and led 10-0 about to go up 17-0 when they fumbled and AF returned it 96 yds for a TD. AF scored the final 23 pts. The Lobos usually hold AF well below their season avg rushing but that was under coach Rocky Long and he is now gone. LY under Long, the defense held AF to a season low 227 rush yds with just 3 pass att. The new DC Dickey hasn’t seen many option attacks in his career and may struggle here. The visitor is 8-4 ATS and AF has covered 5 straight. Troy Calhoun is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as an away fav. Air Force should continue the Lobos woes. FORECAST: Air Force 37 NEW MEXICO 10

OTHER SELECTIONS

2* FLORIDA over Tennessee - The Vols have avg’d just 41 rush ypg vs UF the last 3 years (-11, 37, 96). The team who has rushed for more yds has won 17 of the last 19. The Gators are 11-3-1 ATS S/’94 in their first SEC game. UF had a 3-0 TO edge and got a 78 yd PR TD from James to win 30-6 (-7’) LY and the FD’s were even at 16 and UT had a 258-243 yd edge. The Gators are the best team in the country and this is their only game in the month of Sept that matters especially after UT’s new coach Kiffin made some disparaging comments about Meyer in the offssn. UF (-7’) won their last HG vs UT by 39 and that UT team made it to the SEC Title game. UF has our #1 off and #1 def and #2 spec tms and faces UT’s #45 off, #10 def and #65 spec tms. UF’s Meyer can name the score here as UF is fresh off of 2 blowout wins (outscored Char So and Troy 118-9 and outgained them by an avg of 644-231) in which the subs did most of the work while UT lost a hard-fought battle with UCLA 19-15 last week and has to travel. UT had a 208-186 yd edge but a 4-1 TO deficit LW. QB Crompton has struggled under pressure and is avg 163 ypg (63%) with a 5-5 ratio (3 int and a fmbl lost LW) while Tebow is avg 213 ypg (64%) with a 5-0 ratio. All UF has done is cover 15 of 16 regular season games. Sounds like a September 5H, doesn’t it? FORECAST: FLORIDA 38 Tennessee 3

2* KENT ST over Iowa St - Kent St knows they can win this as they beat Iowa St 23-14 on the road in ‘07 and LY had a 480-374 yd edge but lost in a gm an upset coach Martin felt he had the stronger tm (4 fmbl and 2 blk punts vs them). ISU is just the 5th current BCS school to visit Dix Stadium S/’76. ISU is making their first road trip and are off of playing their rival Iowa (outgained by 123 yds w/6 TO’s). QB Arnaud is avg 153 ypg (52%) with a 2-4 ratio (all 4 int LW) and was pulled for rFr Tiller (PS#54). They have a new HC and lost 22 lett while Kent has just 13 lett lost. ISU has dropped 17 straight AG’s and are 0-4 ATS as a rare AF. This will be their 5th MAC opp over the L4Y and they have been outgained in 3 matchups. KSU has outgained and outFD’d ISU in 2 of those (+47 ypg). KSU was blasted by BC LW (outgained 349-179) and have its MAC opener on deck. QB Morgan is avg 120 ypg (59%) with a 0-3 ratio as KSU played 3 QB’s vs BC. RB Jarvis has 158 yds (4.3). With the Cyclones road struggles and the Flashes past success vs them, KSU will be very confident vs this BCS opponent. FORECAST: KENT ST 30 Iowa St 24

2* OKLAHOMA over Tulsa - Last gm in ‘07 saw a combined 83 pts and 951 yds and we won a Thurs Nite play on OU 63-21 (-23). The Sooners are on a 9-1 run vs TU with the avg MOV 36 ppg and they will be up for an in-state team that was 10-0 at one pt LY, especially since OU is off FCS Idaho St with only a bye on deck. Tulsa is on their 3rd str RG and all‘d 32 ppg on the road in ‘08 while OU scored 52 ppg at home LY (avg win 53-20). Both teams are off blowout wins as OU destroyed Idaho St 64-0 and TU got a solid road win over New Mexico 44-10. QB Kinne has taken the reins of TU’s high-powered offense and played mistake free LW. He threw for 310 yds (63%) with a 4-0 ratio as TU outgained NM 489-171. That may be the key for TU as OU looks to pound the ball with Heisman QB Bradford still sidelined. New starting QB Landry Jones settled in against the lesser foe and finished with 286 yds (56%) with a 3-1 ratio. OU had three RB’s with over 60 yds rushing with Murray leading the way (101, 8.4). There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners D (#2) which will keep the Hurricane at bay while Jones matures. FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 45 Tulsa 17

Underdog POW UDPOW Won last week with San Jose State

Uab (+7') TROY
Troy will be glad to have its first home game after two tough road trips. The Trojans are 18-0 in home openers under HC Blakeney. These 2 are locked at 3 games apiece, UAB defeated Troy 21-3 (Troy just 126 yds 1st 3Q’s) in 2006 and won at Troy 27-7 in ‘05. Troy is off Florida with their SBC opener on deck vs a prime contender. This is UAB’s first road game but they have vet QB Webb and 18 ret sts but they are just 2-19 SU on the road (13-14 ATS). UAB has the edge on off (#44-79) but Troy has large edges on defense (#81 vs #110) and ST’s (#12 vs #120). Troy did win all of their HG’s by DD in ‘08 with the avg home win of 40-9. Troy has been outscored 80-6 the last 6 quarters. LW in a 35-33 loss to SMU, UAB had 5 turnovers (4 int, 1 fmbl), incl an int in the EZ, and had a PAT blk'd, forcing them to go for 2 late in the game. UAB finished with a 448-437 yd edge. They are now back in their preferred role as an underdog and they have the talent to get this outright win. An upset here would make a nice September Game of the Month!!!FORECAST: Uab 34 TROY 33

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Indian Cowboy

6 Unit Play. #150. Florida Gators -29.5 over the Tennessee Volunteers (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). I love me some Gator. And, Tennessee is Gator bait this weekend. I am sick and tired of hearing Lane Kiffin talk. He has talked so much trash. The comments stating that they will be singing Rocky Top once they beat Florida is playing over and over again in the Florida locker room I’m sure. Urban will get his boys more than ready to play for this SEC clash. What is humorous is why would Kiffin run his mouth against the defending national champs and as he admittedly stated the greatest college football quarterback and team of all time? If Tennessee struggled against the UCLA defense of the Pac-10, would they not struggle like hell against the Florida Gators? If the Vols had struggling scoring points and matching the line strength of the Bruins, would they not struggle against the speed and power of the line against the Gators? If the Gators defeated this team by 24 points on the road, can they not certainly defeat this team by 30 points at home - in a nationally televised game where the Gators will be amped to shut up Kiffin and company up for good? Also, Urban knows the spread. You better believe he does. I expect Florida to treat the Vols no differently than Troy. Expect the Gators to score, keep scoring, and then keep scoring some more. Granted, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennessee covers the first half line, but I expect the Gators to open it up in the second half. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Welcome to the SEC Mr. Kiffin. Enjoy singing Rocky Top on the bus ride back as your Vols will be 1-2 to start the year and 0-1 in conference play. Don't worry, I know of at least 3 other coaches who want to whoop your behind befor the season is done - Alabama (because you stole Saban's key recruiter), UGA (because you tried to steal one of their top coaches) and South Carolina (and you went after Spurreri's brother-in-law).

4 Unit Play. Over 53.5 West Virginia @ Auburn Tigers (Saturday @ 7:45pm est). Auburn's offense has done some damage in the first two games. They certainly opened a can of whoop-a$$ on Mississippi State. Give Coach Chizik some credit, he has them playing well and unlike Kiffin, he has temporarily silenced his crtics at Aubur. He is also covering spreads for them which I'm sure they appreciate. Auburn is interested in one thing right now - winning and winning big. They have a coach that will continue to have a chip on his shoulder because many Auburn faithful believe he can't coach. After all, he stunk at Iowa State prior to arriving at Auburn. He needs to prove many people wrong and make those who have showed faith in him look good. West Virginia of course is no slouch and this team has put up back to back 30 point games. I expect this game to be high scoring as the Over is 5-0 for the Mountaineers as a dog by this margin, the Over is 4-0 for the Tigers against the Big East - and the over is 4-1 for the Mountaineers against the SEC.

4 Unit Play. Over 53.5 Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday @ 7:45pm est). With 65% of the public on Georgia, I expect the Razorbacks to be very game in a near pick-em. The line is set for a reason and this is a huge game for Arkansas and their coaching staff. The Razorbacks are looking to improve from last year’s disappointing performance and beating Georgia at home would go a long way for the program. Georgia comes off an emotional win over South Carolina. Georgia played poorly in their first road game at Oklahoma State so I expect them to do better here and at the same time, I expect the Razorbacks to be very game. The Over is 5-0-1 for the Bulldogs on a short spread such as this on the road, the Over is 4-0 for the Razorbacks as a home favorite of late and the Over is 7-3 for Arkansas in their last 10 conference games.

4 Unit Play. #138. Take Washington +19.5 over Southern Cal (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). I'll keep this write-up brief. Southern Cal has some quarterback issues as to who is starting this week. Also, I like SC to have a bit of a let down after their huge win over Ohio State and this seems like a solid let down spot on the road. Washington is not a joke this year as they lost by 8 to LSU in a similar game where the spread was roughly the same (+18). Washington remembers the 52-0 dubbing they took on the road last year and will be looking to this game for some revenge. I like Washington to hang tough here as they likely lose this game by 10-12 points as I expect this game to play very similar to the LSU game. Besides, I think Jake Locker is a stud and one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country as I expect him to shine against quality competition and while the cameras are rolling.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Vegas Sports Informer's

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS

3 Unit Play. #114 Take Syracuse +3 over Northwestern (Saturday 9/19 7:00 PM)

The “Cuse” took on two Big 10 teams the last two weeks and so far they have 2 straight covers. I believe Minnesota and Penn St are better teams than Northwestern so that makes me like Syracuse. The defense of Syracuse has been surprising and if the “D” can keep them in the game the home team should win this. Northwestern is 2-9 ATS in the month of September and 6-20 ATS following a SU win.

2 Unit Play. #128 Take Iowa -4 ½ over Arizona (Saturday 9/19 12:00 PM CBSC)

Arizona struggles against Big 10 teams and the last time they faced a Big 10 on the road Purdue beat them badly (59-7). Iowa is coming off a road win against Iowa St and Iowa played much better than their week one game against N. Iowa. Arizona St is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Big 10 teams. Iowa is 30-14 ATS in their last 44 home games.

2 Unit Play. #141 Take Under 51 Nebraska at Virginia Tech (Saturday 9/19 3:30 PM ABC)

We like this game going under just because it will be played in Blacksburgh and the crowd in Blacksburgh will be hostile. Virginia Tech is 4-13 O/U in their last 17 home games.

5 Unit Play. #148 Take Auburn -7 over West Virginia (Saturday 9/19 7:45 PM ESPN2)

(Game of the Week) Both Auburns running backs (McCalebb and Tate) have had great success rushing the ball this season and Saturday night they should have no trouble with the Mountaineers defense. West Virginia defense has given up 20ppg and again if they can’t tackle the run game of the Tigers this game could get out of hand quickly. West Virginia is 3-7 ATS following a SU win.

3 Unit Play. #149 Take Over 52 Tennessee at Florida (Saturday 9/19 3:30 PM CBS)

Florida has had this game circled for a while and the Florida Gators could hit the total by themselves. Florida first two games the Gators have outscored their opponents 118-9 and granted they played two small schools but this shows me that running up a score could be an issue against the Tennessee defense. Florida is 20-8 O/U in their last 28 games and again the Gators will run up this score.

4 Unit Play. #189 Take Cincinnati PK Oregon St (Saturday 9/19 6:45 PM FSN)

Was not a fan on how the Oregon St. Beavers played against UNLV last week! The Beavers defense didn’t show me anything against UNLV and now the Beavers have to prepare for Cincinnati’s QB Tony Pike. Pike is a much better QB then anything UNLV has on their QB roster. Pike picks apart the defense of the Beavers and watch out for Cincinnati’s defense they have only given up 18 points in two games.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

Jeff Scott Sports

SATURDAY

Last week I hit my Dog GOM on San Jose State and this week I have my overall GOM in the Colleges.



5 UNIT PLAY (OVERALL GOM)

AUBURN -7 over West Virginia: The Tigers offense is much improved as they have averaged 43 ppg and 572 ypg so far this year, compared to the 17 ppg and 302 ypg they put up last year. WVA has not looked all that good in the early going and they were really sloppy last week vs the pirates (11 Penalties and 4 TO's) in their come from behind win. Auburn has revenge after last years 31-17 loss, despite jumping out 14-0. WVA is 0-6 as RD's of 4 or more vs an opponent with revenge, while the Tigers are 6-2 with revenge vs an opponnent of a SU & ATS win. My Power Ratings (108-98) call for a 10 point Tigers win and I agree that it will be a double digit win for them.



4 UNIT PLAYS

BAYLOR -10.5 over Uconn: Baylor is 5-0 ATS as favs of 10 or more off a SU dog win & 6-1 ATS as non-conf home favs. The Bears are off a bye, return 18 starters and are facing a UConn team that is without QB Frazer and possibly their top LB. Griffin will have a big game for the Bears, while Baylors D keeps a UConn offense down that has struggled to start the year. Baylor by 14+ here.

UAB +6.5 over Troy: Lasst week I felt the Ponies had enough offense to keep it close vs the Blazers and they did. UAB did have the better offense in that one, but not 12 points better. This week UAB has the better offense once again, only now they are getting points. Webb will have another big game as UAB wins outright vs a Troy team that is just 1-5 ATS as non-conf favs (0-1 this year). My power ratings (86-84) do call for the outright UAB win and I agree.



3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

TEXAS A&M -19.5 over Utah State: Off a tough 4-8 year the Aggies looked good in their opening 41-6 win over New Mexico. This is a hungry team and with 3 easy home dates to start they year they will look to build confidence with some easy wins. Utah State is better than last year, but are really overmatched in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY-- The Aggies are 12-0 ATS as favs of 27 or less vs a non conf opponent thats off a DD SU loss. Aggies by 24+ here.

WASHINGTON +19.5 over USC: Tough spot for USC here as they are off a hard fought last minute win vs Ohio State. Last year USC was 25 point favs vs Oregon State after playing Ohio State and lost the game outright. Former USC OC Sarkisian is now head mad at Washington and he will have his team ready. Washington is playing very good ball in the early going, after last years 0-12 mark and with another solid game from Locker they should keep this one to less that 2 TD's.

Teaser Of The Week-- 2-0 So Far

3 Team 10 Point Teaser--- Baylor -.5, UAB +16.5 & Notre Dame PK



2 UNIT PLAYS

FAU +20.5 over South Carolina: Classic sandwich game for South Carolina as they are between SEC games. The Owls will be a player in the Sun Belt this year and should keep this one close. My PR's have SC by 18 and I feel it will be closer than that despite the Owls 0-13 ATS run in opposing BCS schools stadiums.

FLORIDA -29.5 over Tennessee: The Gators will make Kiffin eat his words in a rout of 35+.



1 UNIT PLAYS

Air Force -17.5 over NEW MEXICO

MARSHALL +3 over Bowling Green

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-19-09

PURELOCK 2-0

Colorado State