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Re: 9-19-09
Teddy Covers
MLB
3 Under CWS
Teddy Covers
MLB
3 Under CWS
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Re: 9-19-09
Al DeMarco
Saturday's Play
10 Dime - Arkansas
Third straight tough game for Georgia as the Bulldogs opened with a loss at Oklahoma State and then hung on for a 41-37 triumph at home last Saturday against South Carolina. Conversely, Arkansas has been laying in wait since whacking Arkansas State 48-10 two Saturday's ago, a game which featured 591 total yards of offense, 309 from new quarterback - and Michigan transfer - Ryan Mallet, who completed 17-of-22 passes. More importantly, last year's 1000-yard rusher, Michael Smith, wasn't needed as he carried the ball just four times for 43 yards in the rout.
The 'Dawgs were unable to come up with key stops in the second half of their loss at Oklahoma State, and they struggled once more on D against Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks, yielding 427 yards. The pass rush was virtually non-existent as they sacked South Carolina quarterback Stephen Garcia (313 yards) only twice despite his 53 pass attempts. And the unit was on the field almost all night as SC ran 30 more plays than Georgia.
On offense, minus the since departed Knowshon Moreno, the Bulldogs have struggled running the ball, totaling 202 yards (3.4 ypc) in two games, putting more pressure on quarterback Joe Cox, who has passed for only 363 yards in two games with 3 TDs vs. 2 INTs.
This is a huge stepping stone game for Bobby Petrino's crew, who took the first step back to respectability with last year's late-season upset of LSU. The public has jumped on them mildly, elevating the price slightly, but they remain a solid investment opportunity against a Georgia squad with some holes defensively.Comment
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Re: 9-19-09
Doc's Sports
Baseball
2-Unit Play Take #958 LA Dodgers San Francisco Giants OVER 9 RUNS (4:10p.m.)
2-Unit Play Take #968 Oakland A’s -105 over Cleveland Indians (4:05p.m.)
2-Unit Play Take # 975 Boston Red Sox (-1.5RL -130) over Baltimore Orioles (7:05p.m.)Comment
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Re: 9-19-09
Robert Ferringo
5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Detroit at Minnesota (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
Note: This is my Total of the Month. I do recommend at 8.0 since it merely brings the 'push' into play.
Get ready for some playoff baseball. This entire series is essentially a playoff, because it will go a long way to determining which of these teams will win the A.L. Central. And playoff baseball is completely different from any other type of baseball. It's lower scoring, closer to the vest, and there is more focus by everyone involved. We saw a little bit of that last night with a 3-0 win by the Twins. Minnesota is really on a roll right now. They are playing inspired baseball after losing one of their best hitters, Justin Morneau, for the year. Everyone is picking up the slack and they are winning games. But they are doing so with kind of a patchwork lineup and doing so more by grinding out runs and games than coming out and putting up big numbers. Minnesota is always more of an 'under' team. They rely on good pitching and great defense and those fundamentally sound teams generally play tighter, lower scoring games. Detroit has built this year's team in the same mold. They no longer have that monster lineup and they are a team that is also relying on fundamentals like pitching and defense. The result: both of these teams have gone 'under' the total in roughly 57 percent of their games (that's serious profit combined over nearly 300 games). But that's the big picture. As for specifics, Detroit has its ace, Justin Verlander, on the hill. Verlander can be dominant and after a very poor outing in Toronto in his last start I think this is a perfect bounceback spot. Verlander has a sub-3.00 ERA in day games in his career and also sports a solid 3.81 ERA against the Twins. On the other side is Carl Pavano. He is the wild card. He has been throwing really well lately, posting five straight quality starts and failing to sail the total in his last four outings. Pavano has been unreal against Detroit this year. He is 4-0 with a 1.48 ERA against the Tigers this season and so far he has just had their number. In his last two outings against them he has gone for 15 innings allowing one run. Hopefully that type of domination can continue. We should be aided by an ump with a wide strike zone today as well. Tony Randazzo ranks No. 82 out of 88 umpires in terms of walks allowed per game (5.7) and while he isn't the type of an that we can lean on to pull us through this one he is a guy that isn't going to kill us. All-in-all, I'm looking for a strong start out of Verlander. And if Pavano can continue to perform against a lineup that he has had the number of then this one should be close and low-scoring late, and if we can limit the bullpen exposure (no middle relief!) then this one should be around 3-1, 2-0, 2-1 or 4-2. Either way, this total is about a full run high and I like the spot.
PS - Just because I don't do all of the writeups, this much care and analysis does go into every single one of my plays! Good luck.
PSS - The only reason that this isn't a 7-Unit Play as a GOTM is one thing: Joe Nathan. The Twins closer has pitched in five of the last six games. I know the Twins wouldn't hesitate to bring him in in the ninth - this is a critical game - but something like that worries me. And since my big plays have seen some horrific, gut-wrenching losses over the years I'm not going to overextend.
1-Unit Play. Take #965 Colorado (-105) over Arizona (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take #979 N.Y. Yankees (-1.5, -120) over Seattle (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #977 L.A. Angels (+100) over Texas (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
Today’s Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 Cleveland at Oakland (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 Philadelphia at Atlanta (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 San Diego at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.0 L.A. Angels at Texas (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 9.5 Houston at Milwaukee (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.0 San Francisco at L.A. Dodgers (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 N.Y. Yankees at Seattle (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 8.5 Toronto at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
I also like the 'under' in the Royals-White Sox game. I think it's a solid spot.
Here is a bonus for our Internet bettors:
3-Unit Play. Take MLB Grand Salami (Total Runs) ‘Under’ 132.5
This is a prop bet that is offered at just about all online books that offer MLB odds. This bet is a wager on the total runs of all MLB teams, combined, today. I love this spot and I think that we have great value here on the 'under'.
That's it for today. (And don't forget my ACC Game of the Year in college football!) Good luck.Comment
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Re: 9-19-09
4 Unit Play. Take Under 8.5 Florida Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds (Saturday @ 7:10pm est). Ricky Nolasco comes off a tough start against the Cardinals and I expect him to bounce-back today. Ricky gave up seven runs to the Cardinals on the road and the Marlins fell short 6-11 on the road. Nolasco had pitched three straight quality starts prior to his last start. Given the Marlins chase for the playoffs as they are inching closer to the wild card, I expect Nolasco to bounce-back well today. Speaking of pitchers who have bounced-back well, Bronson is having one hecukva second half of the season. He has put together more than 10 straight quality starts and has brought his era down to 4.07. Bronson looks like the pitcher of old and although many of us thought it was a fluke or a phase, Arroyo has continued to pitch well and stay focused. The Marlins come off winning 4-3 yesterday so I expect Bronson to have a decent start as he has done for the past two months and I expect Nolasco to bounce-back in the same token. The Under is 4-1 when the Marlins are Underdogs of late and the Under is 6-0-2 for Arroyo as favorites by this margin.
Good luck,
ICComment
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