9-20-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
***Oakland 21 KANSAS CITY (-3.0) 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 20-Sep-09
The Raiders are an accurate quarterback away from becoming a pretty good team, as the rushing attack is among the best in the league, the secondary is good, and the annually problematic run defense seems to have been fixed with the addition of All-Pro Richard Seymour, who dominated play with good run defense and 2 sacks without even having practiced with the team. Having Seymour and former Dallas All-Pro DE Greg Ellis (1 sack on Monday) on the ends makes it a lot easier for the defensive tackles to handle their business in the middle of the line since the opposing offensive line has to double team Seymour. JaMarcus Russell only completed 12 of his 29 passes, but he averaged a decent 6.9 yards per attempt thanks to a perfectly thrown deep ball to rookie Louis Murphy. The Raiders should have no trouble running the ball on a bad Kansas City run defense and Russell will be able to find more open receivers against the Chiefs' sub-par secondary than he did last week against the Chargers. Kansas City gave up 501 total yards to 5.9 yards per play to a below average Ravens' offense last week, so Oakland should move the ball pretty well in this game. Kansas City's offense, meanwhile, averaged just 4.3 yppl against a very good Ravens' defense, which is about what I expected. It's uncertain if Matt Cassel will be making his Chiefs' debut at quarterback, but Brodie Croyle actually played pretty well last week, so it probably doesn't make much of a difference since I think Cassel will be a below average passer without Randy Moss and Wes Welker to throw to. I'm not quite ready to admit that the Raiders' problems with run defense are suddenly a thing of the past, so I'll continue to rate them as poor in that area until more evidence to the contrary is presented. If the Raiders are still below average against the run, then the Chiefs' rushing attack should be pretty good, but Oakland is capable of limiting the pass attack and my ratings favor Oakland by 3 points in this game. My ratings prior to last week would have favored the Raiders by 1 1/2 points in this game, so last week's results did no influence my ratings too much. In addition to having the better team getting points the Raiders apply to a 63-22 ATS situation and a 28-2 ATS game 2 situation that has won 16 consecutive times, including my Best Bet winner on the Raiders at Kansas City last year in week 2. Kansas City, meanwhile, applies to a very negative 30-90 ATS momentum situation and a 35-81-3 ATS week 2 angle. It also doesn't hurt that the road team is 11-0-1 ATS the last 12 games in this series. I'll take Oakland in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 (-1.20 odds or better) or more and I'd make them a 2-Star at +3 (-1.25 or more) or less.

Strong Opinions (Carolina and UNDER
Carolina 17 ATLANTA (-6.0) 18
10:00 AM Pacific, 20-Sep-09
Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme had his worst day as an NFL quarterback in last week's 10-38 loss the Eagles, as he threw 4 interceptions and lost a fumble. Lost in talk about how bad Delhomme was was the fact that the Panthers' defense played very well in limiting the Eagles to just 4.3 yards per play while allowing McNabb to average just 4.4 yards per pass attempt before he left the game with an injury. Delhomme has been a good quarterback for many seasons and he's going to be a good quarterback this year too, so don't overreact to last week's performance. In fact, Delhomme has had 3 other 3 or more interceptions games since 2005 and he's thrown a total of zero picks in the 3 games following those 3 previous bad games while averaging a quarterback rating of 116.4. I don't necessarily expect zero interceptions and a QB rating of 116 today, but I do expect Delhomme to be better than average like he has he's been his entire career while the defense continues to play well. While Carolina was going -5 in turnover margin in their loss, the Falcons' were +4 in turnovers in their misleadingly easy 19-7 victory over Miami. Atlanta averaged just 4.6 yppl in that game while allowing 4.6 yppl to the Dolphins, who randomly fumbled the ball away 3 times. Prior to last week the Falcons would have been only a 2 point favorite against a Panthers team that was considered superior. Now the Falcons are favored by 6 points due to a randomly bad game by Delhomme and a randomly lucky +4 turnover margin that led to a misleading final score against the Dolphins. Carolina is 9-1 ATS as an underdog of 4 points or more with Jake Delhomme as the starting quarterback and Delhomme is 11-2 ATS as a starter if his team is coming off a double-digit loss. My ratings only favor Atlanta by 2 1/2 points in this game and I expect Jake Delhomme and the Panthers to bounce back like they usually do. I'll consider Carolina a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I'd take the Panthers in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 or more.

I'll also consider the UNDER in the Carolina-Atlanta game a Strong Opinion at 42 points or higher based on a very good 24-1 subset of a 40-9 ATS week 2 Under situation.

Strong Opinion
Tampa Bay 19 BUFFALO (-5.0) 18
01:05 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-09
Tampa Bay's new defensive system didn't suit them well last week, as the Buccaneers were burned by numerous big passing plays from the arm of the Cowboys' Tony Romo, who averaged 22 yards per completion. Buffalo's Trent Edwards isn't as likely to beat the Bucs down the field and Tampa will clean up a lot of their mistakes in week 2. What was encouraging was how well the Bucs played offensively against a good Cowboys' defense. Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward combined for 159 yards at 6.4 ypr and Byron Leftwich was solid in averaging 6.7 yards per pass play with no interceptions. Buffalo lost a heartbreaker on Monday night against the Patriots and may be suffering a bit of a hangover this week while thinking about what could have been. Tampa Bay applies to a 28-2 ATS week 2 situation and my ratings favor Buffalo by just 4 points. I'll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion at +4 or more. I also favor the Under based on an 85-28-3 Under angle.

Strong Opinion - UNDER (40.5)
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) 18 Baltimore 17
01:15 PM Pacific, 20-Sep-09
Baltimore may have racked up 501 total yards in their 38-24 win over Kansas City, but they only averaged 5.9 yards per play, which is barely better than what I expected the Ravens to average against a bad Kansas City defense. Also, allowing 24 points is misleading given that the Ravens only yielded 188 yards at 4.3 yppl. That high scoring game has given us some value on the under in this game (my ratings project 37.5 points) and this game applies to an 85-28-3 UNDER situation, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 39 points or higher.

The side on this game is a bit trickier, as Baltimore applies to a very good 100-36-4 ATS statistical match-up indicator as well as a negative 23-55-3 ATS situation. San Diego, meanwhile, is 25-6-1 ATS in regular season home games when not favored by more than 11 points. The statistical indicator favoring Baltimore is stronger than the general situation and the team trend, so I'll lean with the Ravens plus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Ness
15* Jax Jaguars
PERFECT STORM 20* Ten Titans
Total of the Month 20* Pit/Chi Over.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Brandon Lang 40 dime AFC Mismatch

Baltimore Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Root
Root's Upset Club Picks

7* Panthers +6 over Falcons
6* Eagles +1 over Saints

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Ben Burns

10* under colts

9* chiefs

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Brandon Lang Sunday

40 dimer- Ravens
5 dimer- Lions
5 dimer- Raiders
5 dimer- Jets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Ben burns
10* total of the week - under colts
9* blowout gow - chiefs
8* non conf best bet - bears
8* lions
6* 3 game ultimate - texans - chargers - panthers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

Spreitzer 25*- 49ers

[wayneschultz]

Re: 9-20-09

anybody have all spreitzers and roots picks today

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

ppp
4 balt. buff, chi over, buff over
3 ne, tenn, atl, minn, minn under, oak under, wash under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-20-09

scotts s.

new england
49er
dallas

M. E. = OAK.
KO =PATHERS