9-21-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Anthony Redd Monday's Card
15 Dime - 6 Point Teaser

Dolphins and Colts-Dolphins Under

Note: Miami is approximately a +3 dog. If that is your price, in the teaser, you would make Miami +9.

The total is approximately 41-42 points. If that is your price, you would add the six points, making it 47-48, and then take the game Under.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Dave Malinsky

GAME: San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks Sep 21, 2009 9:40PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: San Francisco Giants
Offered at: 107
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #959 SAN FRANCISCO over ARIZONA

Barry Zito has been a meal ticket for us since the All Star break, working to a 2.36 tune over 12 starts in which he has only allowed 59 hits in 72.1 innings, and has more than twice as many strikeouts as walks. But the fact that we can get him as an underdog here shows us that the markets are still slow to react, and a Giant team that is still not dead in the playoff hunt (nine games against these Diamondbacks and Padres the rest of the way keeps the door open) can bring much more energy than a listless host that is merely playing out the final innings of a dismal season.

So why do we get the better team, better starter and better bullpen in this range? Largely because of the 3.91 that Doug Davis shows for the full season, but take that with a grain of salt. First note that there are 100 pitchers that have worked at least 120 innings so far, and Davis rates dead last in Quality of Batters Faced (as always, we use “On Base + Slugging” as our barometer). If we simply factor him against a league average schedule he becomes a below average pitcher. At 184 innings he also does not have a whole lot left in the tank, with an 0-3/5.88 over his last six starts. But perhaps best of all here is that the Giants are loaded with hitters that read him well.

If we use yesterday’s starting lineup as the guide, those San Francisco hitters are a combined 63-183 lifetime against Davis, a .344 clip that includes seven home runs. Things like the 17-37 from Freddy Sanchez, with five doubles and a home run, are not going to show in the Davis past history vs. the Giant uniforms. And we might even see an upgrade of those numbers if they put Edgar Renteria back on the field tonight, with his 8-18 with two homers against Davis likely getting him a nod. That helps to make the overall ERA of Davis a misleading tag, and helps us to the value that we get for this setting.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

NSA

20* Bos
10* NYY
10* Atl
10* Min

20* Miami +3
10* Under 42

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

BLACK WIDOW

6* Widow Wiseguy
Colts/Dolphins ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on Miami +3.5

The Miami Dolphins SHOULD NOT be catching points at home Monday night. Yes, they played terrible in a Week 1 loss at Atlanta. But the Dolphins have played out-of-character dating back to their playoff loss last year against Baltimore. The Dolphins have committed 9 combined turnovers in their last 2 games, after committing only 13 in all of 2008. Look for Miami to get back to playing sound football this week after a sharp week of practice. Indy is a notorious slow starter, and they started 3-4 last year before reeling off nine straight wins to end the season. Their offense put up just 14 points at home against Jacksonville last week, and they were very fortunate to come away with a 14-12 victory. The Colts won't be so fortunate on the road Monday. Miami's defense is stout, giving up just 19 points to Atlanta last week despite the offense turning the ball over four times. The formula is simple for Miami, don't turn the ball over and they win because they have one of the best defenses in the league. The underdog is 8-1 (89%) in the last 9 meetings in this series. The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record, while the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite. The Colts are missing Bob Sanders, their defensive stopper. WR Anthony Gonzalez went down with a knee injury against the Jaguars, and that leaves Reggie Wayne as the Colts' only proven target outside. Indy won't be playing up to their capability until they can get healthy, and until then they are VERY susceptible to getting upset. Take Miami and the points. (Take Miami +3 if you can't get in at +4)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Jordans



100? INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Analysis due back by 4 p.m. eastern

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

SAM CLAYTON
**8-1 with 30 dime selections this year, No. 9 goes tonight!**

30 dime - STL/HOU Under 8.5 (LIST Lohse and Rodriguez)

As some of you know, I've been talking about a big Monday play all weekend long. I sat back Saturday and Sunday and avoided all the football games because I knew that this was my spot. After I saw the opening total that Vegas set for this game, I immediately called up my local, logged into my online account and proceeded to hit it hard with both. And to be perfectly honest, this would probably still be a premium play even at 7.5. Don't get me wrong, I implore you to shop around for 8.5 and buy the hook if you must, but know full well that this line is a gift.

Monday night's NL Central showdown pits two struggling teams (and offenses) against each other in what should be a real slugfest (chuckle). All jokes aside, both the Cardinals and Astros haven't been hitting much of anything lately. In their last seven games, St. Louis is averaging 2.2 runs per game while Houston comes in scoring an even lower 2.14 runs over that span. The Cards haven't scored more than three runs their last five games and the 'Stros have plated four runs or more only twice in seven contests. Translation: These offenses have been pathetic. And with St. Louis having the NL Central all but locked up and Houston having nothing but offseason tee times on the mind, I believe this game is going to be a full scale pitching battle.

Wandy Rodriguez (13-10, 2.77) gets the call for the Astros and he has been absolutely sensational all season long. Wandy has some of the sharpest stuff in baseball and his ability to avoid the big inning places him among the elite. He's holding opposing hitters to a .238 clip, he doesn't walk many hitters and his WHIP hovers around 1.20. Most runners that reach base on the southpaw usually don't make it very far and the majority find themselves stranded. Rodriguez also boasts a 8-2 record with an insane 1.58 ERA at Minute Maid Park this season. On the bump for the Redbirds is Kyle Lohse and while he's been hit-or-miss in 2009, his numbers against Houston are very good. The former Twinkie is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in two starts this year against the Astros and it's not like the Houston bats are heating up. If anything, they are ice cold and I see a great opportunity for Lohse to capitalize. Never known for being a great road starter, the right-hander has been surprisingly fair lately as he's allowed more than three runs only once his last four starts on the highway.

Those that have been following my picks know that I'm a strong advocate of important intangibles when I see them. And today I actually have a couple. In games that Wandy Rodriguez has started this season, the under has cashed 20 of 30 times. Delving deeper, 9 of Rodriguez's last 10 starts have gone south of 8.5 runs and he's only posted four overs since June 5 (18 starts). Lohse's O/U numbers are just about even, he's posted 8 unders in 18 starts, although he's the type of pitcher that adapts with the flow of the game. It sounds silly, but if he doesn't get too worked up and doesn't try and throw the ball through the catchers' mitt, he'll be just fine. Rodriguez is going to be the one that sets the pace of the ball game and Lohse will follow right along. I expect a low scoring affair as both starters have downright nasty stuff and they shouldn't have many problems keeping their struggling offensive opponents off the scoreboard.

Play the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Charlie


miami+3,
indy @ miami under 42 &
cards @ astros under 8' runs. (500*play)


mlb. houston-150 (30*)
mlb. pittsburgh+120 (20*)
mlb. giants+110 (20*)
mlb texas-125. (10*)
mlb. toronto-135 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

TONY BRUNO WINS 20x teaser dophins and the under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

apache
23 indy
14 indy over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Psychic
Private Members Area

9/21

3 unit Miami +3
3 unit Miami OVER 41.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

NSA

20* Bos
10* NYY
10* Atl
10* Min

20* Miami +3
10* Under 42

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Bryan Leonard

American League Super Play

Texas at Oakland

The Rangers are fading fast in the west having lost 6 of their last 7 games. The future doesn't look bright as they have really struggled with division foe Oakland. The A's have won 7 of the last 8 games in this series and Oakland is really playing well right now. They enter play tonight on a current 12-2 run. They are doing it with timely hitting and solid pitching. They haven't allowed more than four runs in any of their last seven games.

Kevin Millwood started the year very strong but he has faded as of late. He only has one quality start in his last five outings. During that time he has allowed 22 earned runs in 26 innings. A sure sign of the veteran tiring is to look at his strikeout to walk ratio of his last six starts. He has posted a 20 to 21 mark, well below his seasonal rate.

The A's will counter with Edgar Gonzalez who has fared extremely well in three of his four starts this season. This is the third time he has faced Texas this year.

The A's are simply not getting enough credit for the way they have been playing. The line is predicated too much on the need of the Rangers. The better team gets the win here and that club right now is the host.

PLAY OAKLAND

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Stu 10,000-Dime Indianapolis-Miami High Roller Winner
Indianapolis (42) @ Miami (+3) 8:35 PM EDT

MIAMI (+3) (10,000-Dime)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Doc's Sports

4 Unit Play. Take Miami +3 over Indianapolis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-21-09

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take Indianapolis -3 over Miami