9-26-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Ness Insider
Georgia Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Dr. Bob
Rotation #368 Stanford (-7 1/2) 3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10. Rotation #389 UL Monroe (+3 1/2) 2-Stars at +3 or more, 3-Stars at +4 or more. Rotation #394 Navy (-28) 2-Stars at -28 or less, Strong Opinion from 28 1/2 to 31.

Strong Opinion - Rotation #301-302 Mississippi-South Carolina UNDER (53) Strong Opinion Under 51 or higher.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #309 Minnesota (+1 1/2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #314 Temple (-3) Strong Opinion at -3 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #327 Fresno State (+16 1/2) Strong Opinion at +16 or more.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #367-368 Stanford-Washington OVER (52) - Strong Opinion OVER 54 or less.



3 Star Selection
***STANFORD (-7.5) 38 Washington 21
06:00 PM Pacific, 26-Sep-09
Washington pulled off the biggest upset of the season so far with their 16-13 win over USC and the Huskies are certainly a much improved team under new head coach Steve Sarkisian, but the Huskies are an average team at best and are now clearly overrated. Washington's offense is clearly better with Jake Locker back at the controls after missing most of last season. Locker has been very good so far in averaging 7.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.3yppp to an average quarterback. Locker is also the best runner on the team (97 yards on 21 rushing plays), as the running backs have been horrible and leading rusher Chris Polk has averaged just 3.7 ypr. Overall the Huskies' attack has generated 5.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 4.8 yppl to an average team, so that unit is solidly above average.

The problem with Washington is a defense that isn't any better than last year's sorry group. The Huskies' stop unit has allowed 6.5 yppl or more in all 3 of their games, including Idaho and they've allowed an average of 6.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. The defense is actually worse than the offense is good and Washington's upset of USC was a fluke given that the Huskies were out-gained 4.3 yppl to 6.6 yppl by the Trojans, who lost because of a -3 in turnover margin and not because Washington is a good team.

Stanford had a very good rushing attack last season but had a problem at the quarterback position, yet they were still better than average offensively in 2008. The rushing attack is still strong with Toby Gerhart back after rushing for 1136 yards at 5.4 ypr last season, and Jeremy Stewart is a good chance of pace back that has averaged 6.5 ypr on his 16 carries. The difference with Stanford's offense this season is the emergence of redshirt freshman Andrew Luck, who has averaged 8.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.7 yppp to an average quarterback). With a good pass attack to go with the running of Gerhart, the Cardinal are tough to stop and have averaged a robust 7.0 yppl in 3 games, including 6.5 yppl against a good Wake Forest defense. The Cardinal averaged a combined 7.3 yppl and 40.5 points in two games against bad defensive teams Washington State and San Jose State and they should score about 40 points tonight against a bad Washington defense.

Stanford's defense is still a slightly worse than average unit, as it was a year ago, so Washington will score a good number of points, but they aren't likely to score as many as their defense gives up. Basically. you have two good offensive teams (although Stanford's is better overall because of their ability to run) and one team with a horrible defense (Washington) against a team with a slightly worse than average defense and superior special teams. My ratings favor the Cardinal by 13 points in this game and Washington applies to a very negative 9-46-1 ATS road underdog letdown situation that is based on their upset win last week. The Cardinal, meanwhile, apply to a 106-43-4 ATS situation and a 107-47 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Jim Harbaugh is also a perfect 6-0 ATS at home for the Cardinal and I'll take Stanford in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 points or less and for 2-Stars at -9 1/2 or -10 points.

I'll also consider Over 54 points or less a Strong Opinion since my ratings project 61 1/2 points.

2 Star Selection
**NAVY (-28.0) 42 Western Kentucky 7
12:30 PM Pacific, 26-Sep-09
Western Kentucky is the worst team in Division 1A football and their defense is so bad that they made Tennessee's offense look good (the Vols racked up 657 yards at 8.6 yards per play in a 63-7 win over WKU). In 3 games Western Kentucky has allowed an average of 509 yards at 7.9 yppl to Tennessee, South Florida and Central Arkansas, a 1AA team that averaged 7.6 yppl in last week's 28-7 win over the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky has allowed 7.2 yards per rushing play, so stopping the Navy option attack is something that is not going to happen. While Navy is scoring on nearly every possession the Hilltoppers' pathetic offense 3.6 yppl, including just 3.8 yppl against Central Arkansas, will struggle to move the ball against a solid Navy defense that has allowed a respectable 5.4 yppl despite facing Ohio State and Pitt, who actually has a good offense this season. Since 2003, when Navy began their run of winning seasons, the Midshipmen are 11-2 ATS when facing a team that has allowed 4.8 ypr or more on defense and they should run away with this one. My ratings favor Navy by 33 points and teams that allow 6.5 ypr or more (after 2 or more games) are just 27-57-1 ATS in all games - and the Hilltoppers apply to a 3-30 ATS subset of that trend, which works even if the line is huge. Navy would apply to a 124-58-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator at -28 or less and I'll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at -28 or less and consider Navy a Strong Opinion from -28 1/2 to -31 points.

2 Star Selection
**UL Monroe 31 FLORIDA ATL. (-3.5) 27
01:00 PM Pacific, 26-Sep-09
Florida Atlantic has a good quarterback in Rusty Smith, who should finally be able to show his skills off after facing the tough defenses of Nebraska and South Carolina. However, the Owls' inexperienced and thin defense has been run over for an average of 278 rushing yards at 8.6 yards per rushing play in their first two games and that's bad regardless of the opposition (Nebraska and South Carolina would combine to average 5.2 yprp at home against an average defense). UL Monroe has a good back in Frank Goodin, who averaged a decent 4.1 ypr against the tough defenses of Texas and Arizona State, and a good running quarterback in Trey Revell, who has scrambled for 322 yards on 40 rushing plays in a career that consists of about 6 full games. UL Monroe ran for 354 yards at 6.9 yprp against Texas Southern, whose run defense is about as bad as Florida Atlantic's run defense, so I expect Goodin and Revell to run all over the Owls in this game. Revell is also a decent passing quarterback and the FAU pass defense is terrible too so scoring points won't be much of a problem for UL Monroe either. ULM actually has a decent defense by Sun Belt standards and a unit that is certainly better than FAU's stop unit, so we have an underdog that will be able to run the ball effectively and has a better defense than the favorite. That's usually a recipe for success. In fact, UL Monroe applies to a very good 151-61-3 ATS statistical match-up indicator and teams that allow 6.5 ypr or more (after 2 or more games) are just 27-57-1 ATS in all games - and FAU applies to a 3-30 ATS subset of that trend. The Warhawks are also 16-5 ATS in Sun Belt road games under coach Charlie Weatherbie, whose teams are 57-31 ATS away from home in his coaching career. I'll take UL Monroe in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 3-Stars at +4 or more.

Strong Opinion
UNDER (53) - Mississippi (-4.0) 24 SOUTH CAROLINA 21
04:45 PM Pacific, 24-Sep-09
Prior to the beginning of the season my ratings would have favored Ole' Miss by 6 1/2 points in this game, but the Rebels haven't been as sharp as expected offensively and not quite as good defensively as I projected. The Rebels have averaged 6.9 yards per play, but they've done so against two bad defensive teams that would combine to allow 6.7 yppl to an average attack. Mississippi is better offensively than what they've shown so far, but they're certainly not as potent as last year's team. South Carolina has another strong defense based on the 4.3 yppl that they've allowed in their 3 games (against an average group of offensive teams) and the 6.5 yppl that they allowed to Georgia doesn't look so bad given how good Georgia's offense has proven to be. The problem with the Gamecocks is an offense that was just mediocre last season and was worse than that until averaging 8.2 yppl against Florida Atlantic last week. Of course, Florida Atlantic hasn't been able to stop anyone, so there are still concerns about Steve Spurrier's offense - although I do rate them at 0.2 yppl better than average heading into this game. That unit is at a disadvantage against an Ole' Miss defense that has been 0.6 yppl better than average in two games this season (4.1 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yppl against an average defense) and is better than that in my ratings (0.9 yppl better than average). My updated ratings favor Mississippi by 3 points with a total of 43 points, so I'll lean slightly with the Gamecocks at +3 1/2 or more and I don't understand how the total can be so high.

The average points scored in college football this season is 49.0 points and here we have a case where South Carolina's defense is at least as good as Mississippi's offense and Mississippi's defense is much better than the Gamecocks' offense. With that being the case the total should be under the national average of 49 points and my ratings project 45 points. I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 51 points or higher.

Strong Opinion
Fresno St. 26 CINCINNATI (-16.5) 37
09:00 AM Pacific, 26-Sep-09
Cincinnati was my second highest rated Big East team prior to the season (behind West Virginia), so it's not surprising that the Bearcats are exceeding expectations (I used them as a Strong Opinion as a dog in their week 1 blowout at Rutgers). However, the line is starting to catch up with how good Cincy is and the Bearcats apply to a very negative 18-74-2 ATS big home favorite situation against a Fresno State team with an explosive offense and a coach with a 25-6 ATS record as a non-conference underdog of more than 3 points - including an overtime loss at Wisconsin this season. Fresno State's offense has moved the ball as well as any team in the nation this season, averaging 7.1 yards per play, including 6.8 yppl against Wisconsin and Boise State, who are pretty good defensively. Cincy's defense has been better than ever despite just 1 returning starter from last year's stingy unit and the Bearcats' offense has averaged 7.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. It's tough to go against Cincinnati, but they're in a very negative situation and the line is close to fair (I make it Cincy by 17). I'll consider Fresno State a Strong Opinion at +16 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Minnesota 27 NORTHWESTERN (-1.5) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 26-Sep-09
Minnesota gave #6 ranked California a battle last week before giving up two 4th quarter touchdowns to lose 21-35. Particularly tough on the Bears was potential All-American WR Eric Decker, who caught 8 passes for 119 yards with 2 receiving touchdowns while also throwing a TD pass on a fake reverse. Decker has 27 catches in 3 games and if he can do that much damage against a Cal secondary that is one of the nation's best then he should feast on a Northwestern defense that may be without their top CB Sherrick McManis for a 3rd consecutive week (he's questionable). Northwestern's pass defense looks good based on their raw stats, allowing just 5.1 yards per pass play, but they've also faced 3 horrible passing teams in Towson, Eastern Michigan and Syracuse, who would combine to average 4.6 yppp against an average defensive team. Northwestern has also struggled to defend the run, allowing Eastern Michigan and Syracuse to average 5.6 yards per rushing play the last two weeks. Minnesota should be able to move the ball well in this game, especially if McManis is still sidelined.

The Wildcats have played well in one aspect this season, which is the passing game on offense, as quarterback Mike Kafka has averaged 7.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Kafka for some unknown reason has not taken advantage of his great running skills this season and Northwestern's running backs are terrible, which has resulted in just 4.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.6 yprp to an average team. Minnesota defends the run very well, as they've allowed just 4.2 yprp for the season and held Cal's vaunted rushing attack to just 4.5 yprp last week, but Minnesota has been just average against the pass (6.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average team) so Kafka should have success through the air.

Overall my ratings favor Minnesota by 1 1/2 points in this game and the Gophers apply to a solid 115-58-5 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and a 57-29-1 ATS game 4 angle. The road team in this series is also 13-1 ATS the last 14 meetings and I'll consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion at +1 or more.

Strong Opinion
TEMPLE (-3.0) 31 Buffalo 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 26-Sep-09
Buffalo was not a good team last season, just a lucky one. The Bulls were out-gained 5.5 yards per play to 6.1 yppl but were +18 in fumble margin, which is almost completely random. The Bulls have more than adequately replaced 4 year starting quarterback Drew Willy with talented sophomore Zach Maynard (65% completions and 7.3 yards per pass play) but the rushing game is terrible without injured star RB James Starks (just 3.8 yards per rushing play) and the defense is still bad (5.8 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team - they were also 0.7 yppl worse than average last season). This year's Bulls are actually about the same from the line of scrimmage as they were last season, but they aren't as lucky (-6 in turnover margin) and are still overrated based on last year's luck induced success.

Temple, meanwhile, has been improving each season under coach Al Golden and this year's team has played well despite their 0-2 record. Losing at home 24-27 to a Villanova team that is ranked #2 in Division 1AA (FCS) is actually impressive given that the Owls out-gained the Wildcats 7.9 yppl to 5.2 yppl in that game and only lost by 3 points despite being -4 in turnover margin. The Owls also played decent against #5 ranked Penn State on the road, limiting the Nittany Lions to 5.5 yppl and gaining a respectable 4.0 yppl on offense (Penn State would allow just 4.1 yppl at home to an average division 1A team). Temple quarterback Vaughn Charlton has averaged an impressive 7.8 yards per pass play in two games to make up for a bad rushing attack and the Owls' offense looks about the same as that of Buffalo (better than average pass attack and bad rush attack). The Owls, however, are much better defensively and my ratings favor them by 8 points in this game, which gives Temple a solid 55.7% chance of covering based on the historical accuracy of my early season ratings. Buffalo is 16-6 ATS on the road under coach Turner Gill (1-1 this year), but I'll consider Temple a Strong Opinion at -3 or less and a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Ben Burn's 10* Main Event is on Illinois plus the points over Ohio State.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Ness
25* GOY Stanford
20* Perfect Storm Utah
20* GOM is PennSt
Insider: Georgia Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

ness (triple)
Purdue, Ark State, BYU

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Scott Spreitzer big 10 shocker of month

michigan st

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Burns total of the Month:
I'm playing on Arizona State and Georgia to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams are off back to back high-scoring games. That's helped to keep this number fairly high, which I feel has created excellent value with the UNDER. These teams faced each other at Arizona State last season. That game had an o/u line of 52 and finished with a final score of just 27-10, in favor of the Bulldogs. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair for this year's rematch at Georgia. Note that while they've played high-scoring games within the SEC, the Bulldogs saw their only non-conference game fall well below the total. That game (vs. OK. State) finished with a score of 24-10, staying below the total by 25+ points. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 25-13 the Bulldogs last 38 games (with a total) played in September. While they won last week, the Bulldogs know they need to play better defensively if they want to compete in the SEC and I expect a strong effort from them on that side of the ball this week. I won with the 'over' in last week's Arizona State game, so wasn't surprised to see the Sun Devils score a lot (38) of points. In fact, I was rather fortunate to get that many of them, as the Sun Devils only managed 15 first downs and 338 total yards. That was against UL-Monroe, a team which had lost 59-20 in its only previous 1-A game. The Sun Devils other game came against Idaho State. In other words, they have yet to face a quality defense. While I'm still not convinced that the offense is "the real deal," I do believe that the Sun Devils defense is stout. They're solid in all areas and have an excellent front seven. While the opponents have admittedly been weak, its still worth noting that ASU is only allowing 149.5 yards and 8.5 points per game. I wouldn't normally mention a kicker but it should be noted that Thomas Weber is out for the Sun Devils and will be replaced with a freshman. That's worth mentioning as Weber was 24-of-25 last season, en route to winning Lou Groza Award. The Sun Devils have seen the UNDER go 7-2 their last nine road games. They've also seen the UNDER go 8-2 the last 10 times that they were coming off back to back victories. Look for those numbers to improve as this series proves lower-scoring than expected for the second year in a row. *10 Top TV Total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Scott Spreitzer

INSIDER POWER PLAY GAME OF THE YEAR CINCINNATI
CONF RIVALRY KNOCKOUT! KENTUCKY
2008 CFB GRIDIRON GOLD! OKLAHOMA ST
UTAH ST
VANDERBILT

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Spreitzer

Ko GOY./ Stanford

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

brandon Lang


40 dime: (Miami of FL)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Saturday, September 26, 2009
4*Arizona State (+12) over Georgia
7:00 PM -- Sanford Stadium

7*Stanford (-8½) over Washington
9:00 PM -- Stanford Stadium

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

Root

Perfect play oregon +6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

roots no limit

Stanford

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-26-09

ppp

3-Ill-ky-stanford
4-sfla-cali-idaho
5-Iowa