9-30-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

http://www.investwithsports.com/toplist

then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-30-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Wednesday, September 30, 2009

3*Louisiana Tech (-4½) over Hawaii

8:05 PM -- Joe Aillet Stadium
Clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-30-09

EXPERT: Ben Burns
REASON FOR PICK: I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Its been a depressing year for the Nationals, as they've got more than 100 (103) losses and have the worst record in baseball. However, they've got a chance to close out their final homestand of the season on a high. In fact, they're in position to earn a rare sweep. With Lannan on the mound, I believe that they they've got an excellent chance to get it done.

While he's had some trouble on the road, Lannan has been a bright spot at home all season. In 16 starts here, he's gone 5-3 with a superb 2.62 ERA, averaging 6 2/3 innings per outing. That's pretty impressive, when considering Washington's overall record. Lannan is off back to back losses - however, he pitched very well in both games and he's got an outstanding 1.89 ERA his last three starts.

Redding has had some success against the Nationals and he beat Lannan two starts ago. However, that was at New York and as already mentioned Lannan has been much better at home.

For the season, Redding has a 5.20 ERA overall and a 5.07 ERA and 1.51 WHIP on the road. The Mets are 6-10 in his starts. It should also be noted that Redding has an awful 7.57 ERA when pitching during the afternoon this season.

With this being their final home game of the year, the Nationals should have a little more to play for than do the Mets. The Nats should also be motivated to provide Lannan with some support, in return for all the solid work he's given them. I expect Lannan to get the better of Redding in this rematch and for the Nats to send the fans home happy. *7 Annihilator

He is on Detroit RL as a 10* Top Run Line play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-30-09

Brandon Lang

10 Dime: Hawaii

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-30-09

ben burns' **10**
DETROIT +1.5 RUNS (RUN-LINE) Game: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Game Time: 9/30/2009 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Tigers Reason: I'm playing DETROIT ON THE RUNLINE (+1.5 Runs). With the Twins being favored for the game, we're getting a very reasonable price on the Tigers at +1.5 runs. While I expect the Tigers to win, I also believe that this game will likely be close and that having an extra run to work with could prove valuable. Note that both of yesterday's games were decided by a single run, a sign of how close and important this series is. Including yesterday's results, the Tigers are 49-27 at home. The Twins are 37-42 on the road. As their overall records are close, clearly both teams prefer their "home cooking." Note that the Tigers are 6-4 (vs. the moneyline) as home underdogs in the +100 to +125 range. Bonine gets the call for the Tigers and he's been solid as a starter. In three starts, he's got a 3.06 ERA and 1.245 WHIP. He took a loss last time out. However, that was on the road (Tigers are 2-0 in his home starts) and he only allowed two unearned runs and two hits through 6 2/3 innings. Note that all three of his starts have been decided by two runs or less, two of them by a single run. Additionally, note that he'll have the advantage of starting against the Twins for the first time this season. Pavano goes for the Twins and he's admittedly got some great numbers against Detroit. However, this will be the fourth time that the Tigers have faced him since the beginning of August and they just saw him on 9/19, only two starts ago. That should give the hitters an advantage. Actually, Pavano was fortunate to give up only two runs vs. Detroit in that game as he also gave up 11 hits. He was also quite hittable in his most recent start as the lowly Royals got eight hits (two of them HR's) and scored four runs off him in six innings. Overall, he's got a 4.86 ERA incl. a 4.84 ERA on the road. As Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said, "This is playoff baseball - we just got started a little early this year..." With this being "playoff baseball," I expect another close and hard-fought affair and considering the Tigers overall home record, I feel that getting them at +1.5 runs for this price provides us with excellent value. *10 Top Run Line

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-30-09

Big Al

Colorado Rockies -187

With the Braves breathing down their neck in the NL Wild Card race, look for a solid effort from the Colorado Rockies at home Wednesday night against the Brewers.

Our Wednesday night MLB selection is on the Colorado Rockies at home in Coors Field over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Colorado remains in the drivers seat for the NL Wild Card spot heading into tonight and wouldn't it be fitting if an unheralded pitcher like Jason Hammel contributed with a big victory tonight for what if probably the most unheralded team still left in conention?

Hammel saw another strong start go to waste last Thursday, as he lasted 6.1 innings and yielded two runs on six hits, striking out six while walking none. Hammel has gone at least six innings in his last five starts, and in 10 of his last 11 starts he's allowed three runs or less, making the former Tampa Bay righthander one of the club's most dependable starters in the second half of the season.

Milwaukee veteran righthanded starter Jeff Suppan was cruising along with back-to-back quality starts and then the wheels really came off in his last outing against the Phillies as Suppan surrendered 12 hits and seven earned runs in less than five innings in what was his second-worst start of the season. It's been a very up-and-down 2009 campaign for the 15-year veteran, but mostly down as indicated by his 7-11 record, 5.04 ERA and the fact that his strikeouts are down (only 76 in 153 innings) and his walks are up (72).

The Rockies have been one of the best home teams of late, going 39-16 in their last 55 home games heading into the start of this series. Take Colorado.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-30-09

Dr Bob

Hawaii is averaging a healthy 32 points per game, but the Warriors are a much better offensive team than that figure indicates, as they've averaged 517 total yards per game at an incredible 8.4 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average offensive team. Hawaii has had trouble scoring in the red zone (just 3.4 points per opportunity inside the opponent's 20 yard line), but a lot of that is just random variance and I expect Hawaii to be better in that category going forward. Quarterback Greg Alexander, averaging an incredible 9.8 yards per pass play, and the Hawaii offense should have no trouble moving the ball against a bad Louisiana Tech pass defense that has allowed 7.7 yards per pass play to 3 teams that would combine to average only 5.7 yppp against an average defensive team. Hawaii's defense hasn't been too much worse than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yppl) and the Bulldogs' attack has been limited to just 5.5 yppl by teams that would combine to allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. In two games against Division 1A teams the Bulldogs have averaged just 3.7 yppl (against Auburn and Navy), so they're struggling offensively. Unfortunately, Hawaii applies to a very negative 66-156-2 ATS situation and a 109-198-6 ATS situation that combine to go 1-12 ATS when both apply to the same team. Still, it's clear to me that Hawaii is the much better team and should be favored in this game. I'll consider Hawaii a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more based on the line value, but the situational analysis will keep me from making the Warriors a Best Bet.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 9-30-09

PPP

La tech