10-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

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then click on the little button that says, sports100.

There are no pop-ups or anything like that, and it helps us get more traffic to the forum.

Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Wunderdog

Game: Temple at Eastern Michigan (Saturday 10/03 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Eastern Michigan +6.5 (-110)

There appears to be one given each year in the MAC. That given is that Temple won't win the conference championship, and neither will Eastern Michigan. It is hard to imagine the Owls in this spot as nearly a TD favorite on the road. The fact is that this Owls team is 6-32 ATS off a straight-up win - hardly the kind of team you want your money on. They have beaten Eastern Michigan two straight, but have failed to cover in either one and now are a road favorite. The last 10 times the Owls have taken on this role, they have failed to get the money in seven of them. The Eagles have chased an ATS loss with an ATS win in four of their last five and the Eagles are also flying high in October at 13-5 ATS. So once they get their wings in September, they have become a bad team that delivers the cash. Temple beat up on Buffalo last game 37-13. This team hasn't had many big wins over the past fifteen years, notching just 12 wins by a margin of 17+ points. In the next game after the big wins, they have gone just 2-10 ATS. It looks ugly from both sides, but getting points has been pretty for Eastern Michigan, while the Owls don't seem to take to layin’ them. Eastern Michigan gets the call here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Northcoast Sports's Pick Pack

Premium Plays
Matchup: S. Florida at Syracuse
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: S. Florida (-6 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Usf over SYRACUSE - The Bulls have won all 4 outscoring the Orange 140-33. LY the Bulls allowed SU 208 yds on 38 plays in the 1H, but just 0 yds in 18 plays in the 2H. The last time USF played here we used them as our ‘07 College GOY and they rolled 41-10 (-16’). The Bulls lost QB Grothe and now rFr Daniels (PS#75) is making his 2nd road start after facing FSU’s fastest defense ever. He delivered in his hometown with a 17-7 win over #18 FSU producing 341 of USF’s 368 yds ttl off and now looks to replace Grothe’s #’s vs Syr (983 yds and 9 TD’s L3Y). Syr defeated Maine 41-24 LW despite being outgained 430-385 as they trailed 17-10 in the 3Q before scoring 31 straight points. SU is at .500 for the 1st time in 3Y. QB Paulus (PS#4) is avg 222 ypg (68%) with a 6-4 ratio while the run game is avg just 99 ypg (3.1). The Syr D is all’g 83 rush ypg (Penn St 78), but has all’d 311 ypg pass (66%) and have notoriously had trouble with mobile QB’s. USF has the offensive edge (#49-90) and def edge (#23-85). USF is just 3-7 as an AF but SU is 4-8 as a HD.

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Matchup: Clemson at Maryland
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Clemson (-12 -110)
Line Source: HILTON
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Clemson Over MARYLAND - In last meeting here, CU RB Davis guaranteed a win over a banged up MD team and CU dominated. The visitor has won 4 straight (3 decided by 4 or less). LY the Tigers held the Terps to 74 1H yds but were outscored 14-0 in the 2H. Last time here Clemson led 30-3 in the 4Q. MD is 6-16 vs CU but upset #20 Clemson 20-17 on the road LY. Clemson has a bye next week. MD is 6-4 as a HD (lost LW vs Rutgers). MD has committed 13 TO’s in 4 gms and is 1-3 for the 1st time S/’97. QB Turner is avg 243 ypg (60%) with a 4-5 ratio. CU had some missed opportunities LW and came up short vs #11 TCU and the Tigers have lost 7 of their L/8 by a TD or less. QB Parker is avg 179 ypg (47%) with a 5-4 ratio. CU does have a lot of speed in Spiller and Ford and the defense is an improving aspect.

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Matchup: Toledo at Ball State
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Toledo (-4 -110)
Line Source: CAL NEVA
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Toledo Over BALL ST - Toledo is the 3rd MOST exp team in the country and Ball St is the 2nd least. LY Ball dominated 31-0 and the Cards have won the L/3 by an avg of 31-12. After going undefeated in the reg ssn LY Ball St is 0-4, but has covered the L/2 as a dog incl LW vs Aub (+32). The Cardinals were only outFD’d 21-19 but were outgained 560-260. QB Page is avg 127 ypg (48%) with a 3-5 ratio. He is playing behind an inexperienced OL, which has given up 10 sks already after giving up just 14 LY. RB Lewis who led the MAC in rushing LY (124 ypg) has just 185 yds (46.2 ypg). LW Toledo led FIU 17-3 at the half but had to hold on despite a 566-372 yd edge. UT QB Opelt has thrown for over 300 yds in 3 of 4 gms. He is avg 321 ypg (58%) with a 9-4 ratio and has rushed for 127 (7.0). UT’s top rusher is Collins with 360 (6.5). Toledo is 0-4 as an AF (none S/‘06) but Toledo’s offensive edge (#44-113) is just to big for Ball St to get past.



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Matchup: Temple at E.Michigan
Time: 1:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Temple (-6 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Temple over E MICHIGAN - EM is 0-4 SU vs Temple with 4 single digit losses. LY EM QB Schmitt set school records (50 of 76, 484 yds) in a 55-52 loss as the tms comb for 49 pts in the 4Q. However, Schmitt suffered a knee inj vs Mich and is OFY. They benefitted from a bye as it gave them a chance to prep either true frosh Alex Gillett (PS#194) or Kyle McMahon (PS#288), who had 2 starts LY. This is Temple’s 1st trip to Ypsilanti in MAC play. Temple has the large def edge (#57-116) but is in the unfamiliar role of a conf AF (0-1). EM is 1-5 ATS as a HD vs non-Mich MAC teams. TU is led by QB Charlton, who is avg 206 ypg (51%) with a 3-4 ratio and RB Pierce with 184 yds (5.6). While several MAC teams have lost key players, Temple shows that they finally have the depth to compete in the MAC.

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Matchup: Kansas State at Iowa State
Time: 3:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Kansas State (+3 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Kansas St (+) Over Iowa St (Kansas City) - B12 opener for both. K-St is 12-3 vs ISU winning by 27 ppg. Snyder did drop his L/2 to the Cylcones who are on a 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) run. The HT has won 4 straight but this is in KC and the Wildcats should have the crowd edge. K-St has 2 wins vs FCS tms but did outFD UCLA 19-16 on the road. QB Coffman is avg 171 ypg (58%) with a 2-4 ratio but the offense goes through RB Thomas who has 433 yds (4.8, 3 100+ yd gms). LW, Paul Rhoads became the 1st ISU HC to start 3-1 in his rookie ssn S/’31. QB Arnaud is avg 156 ypg (55%) with a 5-4 ratio. RB Robinson (3 straight 100+) has 453 yds (5.7). Both tms lost their BCS non-conf gms as expected and K-St led ULL late. ISU has dropped 9 straight B12 gms (3-6 ATS) and K-St has the coaching edge and the better def (#43-97).



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Matchup: W. Michigan at No. Illinois
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: W. Michigan (+7 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

W Michigan (+) Over N ILLINOIS - The last 3 meetings have been decided by an avg 3 ppg with WM winning all 3. LY RB West had a career best 175 yds (7.0) rushing in a 29-26 win. The Huskies suffered a letdown LW, as they lost to Idaho 34-31 a week after upsetting Purdue. NI was outgained 477-312 but came up just short. WM trailed Hofstra 7-0 and 10-3 before scoring 21 unanswered pts and finished with a 471-329 yd edge. WM QB Tim Hiller is avg 262 ypg (66%) with an 8-3 ratio, while West leads with 296 yds (4.2). NI QB Chandler Harnish is avg 169 ypg (66%) with a 5-1 ratio, while RB Me’co Brown leads with 377 (6.0). NI is 1-7 ATS as a conf HF but are 3-1 ATS and should finally be on the winning side of a close game.



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Matchup: Air Force at Navy
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Air Force (+3.5 -110)
Line Source: BET365
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Air Force (+) Over NAVY - AF was 19-2 vs Navy from ‘82-‘02, but has lost a series high 6 straight (5 outright upsets) by just a comb 33 pts. AF has, however, outgained Navy in 4 of the 6 gms. LY Navy got 2 blocked punts returned for TD’s to pull out a 33-27 win (+6) on the road. AF did have 411-244 yd and 20-13 FD edges. TY Air Force has been impressive going 3-1 and leads the nation in rushing with 319 ypg (4.8). LW QB Dietz got his 1st career st in a 26-14 win over SDSt in which AF had a +6 TO margin including 2 defensive TD’s. Meanwhile, Navy is coming off a disappointing win against WKU in which they gave up 434 yds. Navy QB Dobbs is the leading rusher with 294 yards (3.0) and 9 TD’s. This is AF’s 3rd road game in 4 wks and is sandwiched between two MWC gms. However, Navy is the most important game on the AF schedule as the winner has won the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy the L/12Y and this game will come down to the wire (5 of L/6 decided by TD or less).



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Matchup: Tulsa at Rice
Time: 7:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Tulsa (-15 -110)
Line Source: MIRAGE
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Tulsa over RICE - The last meeting here, Tulsa (-13’) barely escaped a fired up Rice team 48-43 (Rice 700-592 yd edge). LY, TU outscored Rice 42-14 in the 2H for a 63-28 home win vs a potent Owl offense. Tulsa is just 6-9 ATS as an AF, but is on a 9-3 run as a DD fav (2-0 TY). This is also Tulsa’s 4th road game in 5 weeks, but they have a bye on deck and are off a 56-3 waxing of FCS Sam Houston St. Rice is 17-6-1 as a HD and went 5-1 ATS at home LY, but that was with a much more experienced squad. They lost 36-17 to Vandy (+7) in that role LW. That game was actually tied at the half, but Vandy scored 20 straight pts in the 2H. QB Fanuzzi, who splits snaps with Shepherd, DNP LW (shldr, check status). Tulsa has all the edges (off #33-112, D #59-112, ST #23-46). While some of the angles point to Rice, TU usually puts the hammer down against weaker foes, and already has covered their 2 road fav roles by 10 and 17 points.

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Matchup: Oklahoma at Miami (FL)
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Miami (FL) (+7.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

MIAMI, FL Over Oklahoma - In the last meeting in ‘07, UM was mauled, being outgained 411-139 and outFD’d 25-7. Under Stoops, OU is 11-3 vs BCS non-conf tms in the reg ssn w/an avg score 39-23. UM is 8-1 at home vs current non-conf BCS teams winning by 21 ppg. OU is off a bye while UM just played GT and VT. UM looked very impressive up until LW (handcuffed by the Hokie def with just 209 yds) and are led by QB Harris who is avg 269 ypg (60%) with a 5-3 ratio. OU has pitched B2B shutouts vs weaker foes but did hold BYU to just 14 pts. QB Jones has filled in nicely for Bradford, avg 224 ypg (61%) with a 9-3 ratio. OU has the better def (#2-21) but the OL edge goes to the ‘Canes as they face a QB in his 1st road start in the heat/humidity of FL and need to refocus facing another tough ranked opp here.



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Matchup: Colorado State at Idaho
Time: 10:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Idaho (+4 -110)
Line Source: VENETIAN
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

IDAHO (+) over Colorado St - It’s the 3rd year of the Akey era at Idaho and the Vandals are riding high as they are off to a 3-1 start, their best since S/’94. The Vandals’ 3 wins TY equal their combined total for ‘07 and ‘08. UI is on an 8-2 ATS run (4-0 TY) after ending a 3-17 drought. UI QB Enderle is avg 240 ypg (64%) with a 5-2 ratio including 18-27 for 270 yds and 3 TD’s LW vs NI and he has spread the ball around to 10 different receivers. CSU QB Stucker is avg 237 ypg (55%) with a 6-5 ratio and he was 30-50 for 372 yds and 2 TD’s LW. CSU had a 6 gm win streak snapped LW to BYU but the Rams are 6-2 in gms decided by one score or less under HC Fairchild and are on a 5-2 ATS run. While Idaho is perfect in the ATS column, they are a fundamentally sound team that can finally use their unique home edge of the Kibbie Dome.



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Member Plays
Matchup: Memphis at Central Florida
Time: 3:30 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Memphis (+7.5 -110)
Line Source: ATLANTIS
Posted on: September 30, 2009 @ 11:49:59 AM EDT

Memphis (+) Over UCF - The Tigers have been outscored 94-37 in the L/2 gms at UCF. Memphis is 16-27 SU on the road under West and UCF is 8-4-1 ATS in Bright House Networks Stadium and has a bye on deck. The Knights are coming off a 19-14 loss at EC (outgained 403-336). QB Hodges will be making his 3rd start and is avg 174 ypg (63%) with a 4-5 ratio (threw 4 int LW). RB Harvey leads with 317 yds, but is avg just 3.7 ypc. Memphis also has a QB making his 3rd start in Soph Tyler Bass. He did not fare that well in his 2nd start, a 27-16 home loss to Marshall (50%, 323, 1-2) and the Tigers are now 0-3 SU/ATS vs FBS schools. Bass is avg 186 ypg (65%) with a 5-3 ratio and has also rushed for 161 (4.6). Mem should get workhorse RB Steele (119, 5.0) back here after he missed the L/2. UCF has a large ST’s edge (#4-102) and that could be the difference in what we expect to be a close game.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Wunderdog

Game: South Florida at Syracuse (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on South Florida -6.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Syracuse has been a surprise this season, winning back-to-back games for the first time since 2006. While every win counts equally in the standings, you can hardly get excited about a win over Northwestern and a come-from-behind win at home over a non-BCS team in Maine. The Bulls got a bad break when they lost QB Matt Grothe for the year. No one gave them a chance going to Florida State with an untested QB, especially with the Seminoles coming off a game in which they hung 54 on BCS contender BYU. But South Florida manhandled the Seminoles, allowing them just seven points. All BJ Daniels did at QB for the Bulls was connect on two first-half TD passes. He was also the Bulls leading rusher with 126 yards. So, the Bulls may actually have an upgrade at QB here and are off to a 4-0 start. The last time these teams met it was 45-13 South Florida a year ago. Two years ago in Syracuse, the Bulls ran away with a 41-10 rout. Both of those games featured the Bulls favored by three TDs and here a TD advantage gets us the cover. I don't think Syracuse has bridged the gap that much. I'm going with South Florida here.

Game: Florida State at Boston College (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Boston College +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Will the real Florida State Seminoles please stand up? This is a very mysterious team. The Noles opened vs. Miami, had the Hurricanes out-stated for three quarters getting up by nine, then became a different team and lost. They played home vs. Jacksonville State as a huge favorite and needed a miracle finish just to win. They then go out to BYU, who many thought could crack the BCS Bowl bids, play big-time and hang 54 on the Cougars on the road. Then they come home against a South Florida team starting a backup QB in his first game and lose at home by 10 points. Whatever is going on something just isn't right. And Boston College isn't the kind of team that you can play an incomplete game with on the road and win. The Eagles never seem to have the talked-about team but all they do is win football games, get Bowl bids and win those. The Eagles are 26-5 at home in their last 31, so they won't be an easy out here - far from it. The Noles have not been a team to be bullish on as a favorite, standing in at just 7-16-1 ATS when posted as a chalk from 3.5-10 points. The Eagles have relished in this very same role as they are 11-3 ATS as a dog of 3.5-10. The Eagle has landed and it takes down the Noles. I'm on Boston College in this one.

Game: Wisconsin at Minnesota (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Wisconsin +3 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
These two teams have certainly played some exciting high-scoring games as the last nine have soared over the total. Wisconsin has been a steady program under Coach Brent Bielema as they have not dropped a bit under his regime at 32-11 in his 43 games. Minnesota coach Tim Brewster has gotten the Gophers program back on its feet with six more wins last year compared to the 2007-08 season. Wisconsin has always been a good, strong defensive team that runs the ball well, but finally they appear to have a competent QB in Scott Tolzien that can mix things up. Tolzien has thrown for eight TD passes already with just two picks, and is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt. The Golden Gophers struggled against Syracuse before winning in OT, had a battle with Air Force, and lost to California. QB Adam Weber has not been great with five TDs and five INTs, averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt. This will be just the fourth time the Gophers have laid points to Wisconsin, and they have never covered. Additionally they are just 4-14 SU and ATS against Wisconsin in their last 18 overall. This will be a close game, and the Badgers usually find a way to get it done.

Game: Toledo + Usc at Parlay (Saturday 10/03 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Parlay +125 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 5)
I really like both of these teams to win their games outright. On the moneyline Toledo is -190 and USC is -200. When these two are put together in a two-team moneyline parlay the payout is +125. The Rockets are 47-8 straight-up over the past 15 years when scoring 28+ points in a game and I like them to score a lot in their game vs. Ball State, a team that has allowed over 30 per game this season. As for USC, they have plenty of motivation in their game against Cal. The sting of the loss to Washington two weeks ago is still fresh in their minds. They simply must win-out to hold on to any hopes of a BCS Championship. In addition, they will be playing hard for teammate Stafon Johnson who was seriously injured this week in the weight room. The Golden Bears were embarrassed last week in a 42-3 loss to Oregon and won't be right here. Jahvid Best is great, but he was shut down last year in this matchup and the USC defense has held opponents this year to just 60 yards rushing per game on average. USC doesn't lose the games vs. good competition - they lose the ones to the cupcakes. Under Pete Carroll the Trojans are 36-5 straight-up vs. teams at .600 or better. I like both Toledo and USC to notch wins and I think there is very good value on the +125 payout on a parlay of the two on the moneyline.

Game: Alabama at Kentucky (Saturday 10/03 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Kentucky +16 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
It has been a long time since Alabama has lost a regular season football game, and I don't think it will come at Kentucky. But notching a blowout is another story. The Tide boasts one of the top defenses in the country, but will be taking to the road for the first time with a raw QB in Greg McElroy and we have already seen many top 10 teams treated to a loss already this season. Kentucky fell to Florida last week at home, so they aren't likely to cause 'Bama to get up for this game. And the Tide has a huge one on deck with Ole Miss on the road. So it's plausible for the Tide to think they can get away without expending much energy here. Remember a year ago, the Wildcats went into Alabama and lost by just three points as a dog of the same amount as posted at home here for this one. Once more Kentucky is the “Mildcats” no more as they have grabbed the money in 21 of their last 31 as a dog of 10.5 or more. When you mark them as a home dog of 10.5 or more it becomes very profitable as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 in that situation. It looked easy last year for Alabama and it wasn't. Now the Tide must try to topple the same number on the road with a QB making his first appearance out of the comforts of home. I like the Wildcats here.

Game: Temple at Eastern Michigan (Saturday 10/03 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Eastern Michigan +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
There appears to be one given each year in the MAC. That given is that Temple won't win the conference championship, and neither will Eastern Michigan. It is hard to imagine the Owls in this spot as nearly a TD favorite on the road. The fact is that this Owls team is 6-32 ATS off a straight-up win - hardly the kind of team you want your money on. They have beaten Eastern Michigan two straight, but have failed to cover in either one and now are a road favorite. The last 10 times the Owls have taken on this role, they have failed to get the money in seven of them. The Eagles have chased an ATS loss with an ATS win in four of their last five and the Eagles are also flying high in October at 13-5 ATS. So once they get their wings in September, they have become a bad team that delivers the cash. Temple beat up on Buffalo last game 37-13. This team hasn't had many big wins over the past fifteen years, notching just 12 wins by a margin of 17+ points. In the next game after the big wins, they have gone just 2-10 ATS. It looks ugly from both sides, but getting points has been pretty for Eastern Michigan, while the Owls don't seem to take to layin’ them. Eastern Michigan gets the call here.


Game: Western Michigan at Northern Illinois (Saturday 10/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Northern Illinois -6.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)
The Broncos are a one-dimensional team that relies on the pass to move the football, but many times when the field gets short they struggle to find the endzone without a running game. Despite their 271 yards passing per game, the Broncos have averaged just 24 points per game. They ran for 159 yards against a non-BCS team and, even with that, they average under 100 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos’ defense has been lacking stopping the run or pass, allowing almost 400 yards per game. The Huskies should take advantage of the Broncos inability to stop the run. Western Michigan is yielding 157 yards per game on the ground, while the Huskies are churning out 188 per game of their own with Me'co Brown averaging six yards a pop. The Huskies have allowed seven rushing TDs this season, but that isn't what Western Michigan does well. The Broncos have yet to find the win column on the road at 0-2 and have run their road ineptness to 0-5 ATS in their last five. The Huskies have come up big at 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a 3.5-10 point favorite. The Broncos are also just 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings with the Huskies, and are 0-6 ATS on the road against Northern Illinois. I'm going with Northern Illinois to continue their home dominance in this one.

Game: Air Force at Navy (Saturday 10/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Navy -2.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
In this battle for the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, the Naval Academy has won six years in a row. While the Air Force holds a commanding 25-16 all-time edge in the series, Navy has been the better team in recent years taking out the Falcons six straight years. Air Force had a lot of problems on the road losing to Minnesota and then last week, the offense could not find the end-zone against a rather weak San Diego State team. Air Force has thrived on defense, where they lead the country averaging +3.25 turnovers per game. It will be difficult for Air Force to score on the Navy defense that is better than their No. 71 passing yards allowed ranking, mainly due to stepping up in class vs. Pittsburgh and Ohio State. Air Force usually has a decent team and isn’t listed as a dog often, but have struggled to win when they are losing their last four ATS. Navy has pounded the MWC as they have a 12-1 ATS record in their last 13 against them and, overall as a favorite of three points or less, Navy has delivered the cash to a 6-1 ATS mark. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS against Navy in the last six meetings and I don't see this as the year they break through. Navy gets the call in this one.


Game: Washington at Notre Dame (Saturday 10/03 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Notre Dame -12.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Huskies shocked the NCAAF world with a win over the USC Trojans two weeks ago, delivering a blow to the Trojans' BCS Championship hopes. Washington was one of our upset alerts that came through. But as I said last week when fading the same Huskies team, that was more about a USC letdown than the strength of Washington. The Huskies played premier in that game for sure, but they aren't really a quality team. I am again fading them this week. The Huskies caught the Trojans napping, which USC seems to do once a year. If you remember, they lost to Oregon State last year as a 24-point favorite and two years ago they lost to Stanford as a 39-point favorite. The Huskies, after their big win, returned to reality as they took to the road for the first time and lost to Stanford by 20. This is still a team that is 2-14 in their last 16 games and 1-10 in their last 11 on the road. The Huskies have dropped their last five on the road by 20, 41, 56, 34 and 34 points for an average margin of 37 points per game to teams with a winning record. The Irish come in one late TD drive at Michigan from being 4-0. They are a bit banged up, but are still head and shoulders better than this Huskies team and won't get caught napping here. The Huskies are just 1-9 ATS after scoring 20 or less and 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road. They have not covered against the Irish in five straight meetings. The Irish get a big win here.


Game: Ohio State at Indiana (Saturday 10/03 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Ohio State -17.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
It has been a long time since the Indiana Hoosiers have beaten Ohio State. You have to go back to 1988 (over 20 years ago) to find the Hoosiers’ last win. Over the years Ohio State has been a powerful team just about every year and Indiana would have glimpses of success, then fall back. What is amazing is the absolute dominance Ohio State has had on this Indiana team. The Hoosiers have not scored more than 17 points against the Buckeyes since 1991! The Buckeyes, on the other hand, have scored 30+ in seven of the last eight meetings. The Hoosiers, over that same period, have been held to an average of eight points per game. The Buckeyes have also won 15 straight on the road in the Big-10. This is one of the best defensive Buckeyes teams in recent years, coming to Bloomington off of two consecutive shutouts for the first time since '96. The Buckeyes aren't just winning Big-10 games they are also 23-8 ATS in their last 31 against conference foes, including 17-5 ATS on the road in conference play. The Hoosiers are cash-poor as a dog of 10+ coming in with just a 4-10 ATS mark. The Buckeyes have covered the last four against the Hoosiers. Look for Ohio State to make it five straight.

Game: S M U at T C U (Saturday 10/03 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on T C U -28 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This one should become very ugly. SMU has put up some offense with their run-and-shoot, but against some real weak defensive teams. And even against that weak competition, QB Bo Levi Mitchell has tossed eight INTs. They are going to run into the best defense they have seen in a while with TCU. I expect this offense to make a lot of errors and would not be surprised to see a couple of Horned Frog defensive scores as they will be in the Mustangs’ backfield all game long. TCU boasts a high-octane offense behind QB Andy Dalton and RB Joe Turner. WR Jimmy Young doesn't catch many, but has a way to get behind a defense and is turning in over 21 yards per catch. Last year the Frogs won by 41 and took a Mitchell serve back the other way for a score. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it again and again. Texas Christian in a blowout.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

purelock ( 4-0 )

northern illinois

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

northcoast earlybird ( 3-1 )

san diego state

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Spartan
3* Oklahoma
3* Penn State
3* New Mexico State
2* Ohio State..

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Strike Point Sports
College Football - Week Five

4-Unit Play. #166 Take Iowa State -2.5 over Kansas State (10/3 Saturday - 3 p.m. EST)


5-Unit Play. #145 Take LSU +3 over Georgia (10/3 Saturday - 3:30 p.m. EST)

4-Unit Play. #119 Take N.C. State +2.5 over Wake Forest (10/3 Saturday - 3:30 p.m. EST)


4-Unit Play. #143 Take Washington +13 over Notre Dame (10/3 Saturday - 3:30 p.m. EST)

5-Unit Play. #183 Take Arkansas -1.5 over Texas A&M (10/3 Saturday - 7:30 p.m. EST)

5-Unit Play. #185 Take Auburn +2.5 over Tennessee (10/3 Saturday - 7:45 p.m. EST)

4-Unit Play. #188 Take California +4.5 over USC (10/3 Saturday - 8 p.m. EST)

2-Unit Play. Florida State/Boston College 'Under' 46 (10/3 Saturday - 3:30 p.m. EST)

2-Unit Play. Penn State/Illinois 'Under' 46 (10/3 Saturday - 3:30 p.m. EST)

2-Unit Play. Georgia Tech/Mississippi State 'Under' 46.5 (10/3 Saturday - 7:30 p.m. EST)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Docs Sports


8 Unit Play. #88 Take Minnesota -2 ½ over Wisconsin (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) Big Ten Game of the Year. Minnesota 31, Wisconsin 20.

5 Unit Play. #60 Take Georgia -3 over LSU (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Top College Selection. Georgia 38, LSU 14.

5 Unit Play. #26 Take Illinois +7 over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. Illinois 27, Penn State 20.

4 Unit Play. #27 Take Arkansas State +22 over Iowa (12:05 pm ESPN 2) Iowa 27, Arkansas State 14.

4 Unit Play. #33 Take Clemson -12 ½ over Maryland (Saturday 12 pm ESPN U) Clemson 34, Maryland 10.

4 Unit Play. #38 Take Michigan State -3 over Michigan (Saturday 12 pm Big 10 Network) Michigan State 28, Michigan 20.

4 Unit Play. #86 Take California +4 ½ over USC (Saturday 8 pm ABC) California 24, USC 21.


strong opinion plays:
Florida State by 14 over Boston College (line is 4)
Texas Tech by 42 over New Mexico (line is 35.5)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

al demarco 5 Dime play road warrior GOY


penn st

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Teddy Covers

Northwestern +8 (115)
Virginia +13 (123)
Miami (FL) +7.5 (152)
Western Michigan +6.5 (157)
Iowa State -2.5 (166)

20* Big Ticket: Arkansas -1 (183)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Black Widow

6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Minnesota -2.5(-110 bookm)


Wisconsin may be 4-0, but they've played all four games at home and they have yet to record an impressive win. They own 8-point wins over Northern Illinois and Michigan State, and also a 3-point overtime win over Fresno State. In their first road game of the season, the Badgers' true colors will show Saturday. Minnesota is now 3-1 with their only loss to Cal, a team they had on the ropes the entire game. The Golden Gophers will be prepared to stop Wisconsin's running game, having faced two of the best rushing teams in the country in Cal and Air Force already. Their defense is giving up 144 rushing yards per game, but only 3.3 yards per carry which is very impressive considering the teams they have faced. The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog, losing 86% of the time. Wisconsin is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games overall. The Gophers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Minnesota's ability to stop the run will be the key to their victory Saturday. Take Minnesota and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Black Widow

5* ESPN 2 "Early" Non-Conference Surefire on Arkansas State +21.5(-108 5dimes)


HUGE LETDOWN SPOT FOR IOWA. After their 21-10 road win at Penn State, the Hawkeyes now find themselves as the No. 13 ranked team in the country with an undefeated record. But with that record comes expectations, the kind that Iowa cannot live up to. The Hawkeyes have been winning games with their defense, in spite of their lackluster offense. Iowa is putting up just 25.0 points per game and 348 yards per contest. Those aren't numbers that indicate they would have any chance to cover this huge three-touchdown spread against a good Arkansas State team. The Red Wolves are averaging 190 rushing yards/game and they return 15 total starters from a team that won six games a year ago. They led Troy 23-10 last week, and faltered down the stretch to lose 27-30. You can bet this team will be very hungry after that crushing loss, especially when facing a Top-25 team which is a chance to put their names on the map. There's no question Iowa will come out flat in this one. The Hawkeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Take Arkansas State and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-3-09

Black Widow

4* on Eastern Michigan +6.5(-106 5dimes)

Eastern Michigan should not be catching points at home against Temple. Yes, EMU is 0-3, but they've faced a very tough schedule with road losses to Northwestern and Michigan and a home loss to Army. EMU lost at Temple 52-55 last season, so you can bet they have revenge in mind. They have 17 starters back from that team, and these players have not forgotten that crushing defeat. This team is very hungry for their first win of the season, and this is easily the softest opponent they have faced thus far so they have a great chance to getting it. Temple is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since 1992. The Owls are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. The Eagles are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games in October. Take Eastern Michigan and the points.