10-4-09

[Mr. IWS]

Fellas. You could really help out our forum by voting for us by going to this page and clicking the link below

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then click on the little button that says, sports100.

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Thanks a lot.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

Brandon Lang




50 DIME

Interconference Mismatch


Saints -7

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

Ness
Insider Titans
25*GOY Dolphins
15* NE over
20*Perfect Storm Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Sunday, October 04, 2009
7*Browns (+6) over Bengals

6*Jaguars (+3) over Titans

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

Dr. Bob writing
NFL Best Bet Sides

2 Star Selection
Oakland (+9) 23 HOUSTON 24
04-Oct-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I can't think of many times that I've seen worse quarterbacking from an NFL quarterback than what I've seen from the Raiders' JaMarcus Russell the last two weeks. Russell has had troubles completing even short passes and has managed just 141 pass yards at 2.8 yards per pass play against the Chiefs and Broncos. The Raiders actually beat the Chiefs when Russell suddenly got his act together to lead a game winning touchdown drive and he looked pretty good against the Chargers in week 1 (6.8 yppp including a beautiful 4th down bomb for a TD). Russell is not as bad as he's been the last two weeks, but his lifetime 52% completion percentage (41% this year) and 5.2 yppp average are still among the worst among NFL starters (especially now that Brady Quinn is out of a job in Cleveland). However, despite how poorly Russell has played so far this season the math using this year's games only would favor Houston by just 8 points in this game and it's pretty reasonable to think that Russell won't be as bad going forward as he's been so far this season. Russell should certainly have better numbers today against a bad Houston secondary that's given up 7.3 yppp to a collection of sub-par quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.8 yppp against an average team. More importantly, Russell probably won't have to do much for the Raiders to move the ball since their collection of talented backs should have an easy time running against a Texans' defensive front that has allowed an average of 208 rushing yards at 6.6 ypr in their first 3 games. Russell is much better when he's got a running attack to rely on (his only good game against San Diego was also the only game in which the Raiders ran the ball well). Overall, the Raiders have been 1.1 yards per play worse than average offensively (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) while Houston's defense has been 1.7 yppl worse than average (7.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average just 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team) - so the Raiders actually have an advantage when they have the ball.

Houston's offense also has an advantage, as the Texans have averaged a healthy 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow just 4.9 yppl to an average attack. That unit is going up against a solid Raiders' defense that has been average on the season (5.3 yppl against teams that would average 5.3 yppl) and has the league's best shutdown cornerback in Nnamdi Asomugha to slow down perhaps the league's best receiver Andre Johnson. Johnson was held to just 2 catches for 19 yards by Asomugha in last season's 27-16 Raiders' upset win as a 7 point dog, he didn't play in the 2007 meeting, and was held to just 1 catch for 9 yards by Oakland's All-Pro corner in the 2006 game. Slowing down Johnson again would give the Raiders a good chance to win this game and they are certainly capable of keeping this game competitive.

My ratings favor Houston by just 6 1/2 points in this game and as I mentioned earlier the math would favor the Texans by only 8 points using this year's games only (i.e. if Russell continues to play below his normal poor standards). In addition to the line value the Raiders apply to a very strong 72-18-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. I'll take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 3-Stars at +10.
NFL Strong Opinions

Buffalo (-2.0) 23 MIAMI 16
04-Oct-09 01:05 PM Pacific Time
My 2-Star play on Miami Under 7 1/2 wins is looking pretty good so far and the Dolphins now are without starting quarterback Chad Pennington. Pennington wasn't having a good season (69% completions, but just 5.6 yards per attempt and 4.8 yards per pass play), but new starter Chad Henne has completed only 55% of his 31 career passes for just 5.1 ypa. Miami has been out-gained 4.7 yards per play to 6.2 yppl and I still don't think that perception has caught up with reality concerning the Dolphins. Buffalo is a decent team that has averaged 5.4 yppl and allowed 5.5 yppl against a slightly tougher than average schedule and they beat up on the only bad team they faced - a 33-20 win over Tampa Bay. My ratings favor Buffalo by 3 points in this game and the Bills apply to a solid 176-95-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator. I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion at -2 1/2 or less
San Diego (+6.5) 21 PITTSBURGH 22
04-Oct-09 05:20 PM Pacific Time
Pittsburgh is not as good as they were last season, as the defense hasn't been as good without star S Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are still better than average defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit, but the Chargers have an attack that is 0.4 yppl better than average and they should have decent success in this game even if LaDanian Tomlinson is out again this week. Pittsburgh's offense has been surprisingly good so far, averaging 5.5 yppl against 3 good defensive teams (Tennessee, Chicago, and Cincy) and the Chargers are just mediocre defensively. The possible absence of Shawne Merriman (questionable with a groin injury) doesn't concern me given that Merriman's level of play is average at best so far this season (just 6 tackles with zero sacks and zero passes broken up). My ratings favor Pittsburgh by 5 1/2 points in this game, but assuming that the Steelers are bound to play well because they're motivated by their 1-2 record is simply wrong. In fact, week 4 home favorites are just 26-57-1 ATS if they enter the game with a losing record, including 7-32-1 ATS when laying more than 5 points. That includes a 3-16-1 ATS mark if the home favorite was a 10-6 or better the previous season. San Diego has as much talent as any team in the AFC and the Chargers tend to play their best when they need to, which explains why they are 18-3-1 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog. I'll consider San Diego a Strong Opinion at +6 points or more

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

Spreitzer
5* Det
5* cin/clev OVER
TKO Pitt
KO Den
Dog Pound GOY St. Louis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

PPP
4 Tenn
4 Dall
3 Wash
3 Balt
3 Cincy
3 NO

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

Burns

10* AFC SOUTH TOY - UNDER JAGS
10* DIVISION GOY - BROWNS
9* MAIN EVENT - STEELERS
8* NON-CONF GOW - CHIEFS
6* BEST BET - RAMS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

Lang
50 New Orleans -7
15 Denver +3
10 Tennessee -3

Free Play: San Diego

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-4-09

Root
Vegas Legend-Redskins
Millionaires-chiefs
No Limit- Browns
Perfect Play -Broncos
billionaire-Jaguars