Tweet
Re: 10-8-09
Red Hott Locks
No. 21 Nebraska (3-1, 0-0) at No. 24 Missouri (4-0, 0-0)
Thursday, October 8
ESPN
9:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Line: Missouri +1, O/U
Current Line: Missouri +3.5, O/U
The Missouri Tigers are starting to create a quiet vibration on the national college football scene. This week they find themselves in favor of the pollsters, positioned as the No. 24 team in the country. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing considering once a team shows up somewhere on that Top 25 list, you have a bull’s-eye on your back. Last week, the Tigers went to Reno and defeated Nevada (31-21) in a hostile environment and now they return home to open Big 12 play against the Cornhuskers. I felt like the game against Nevada could have been more of a blowout than the score reflected. There was very questionable, maybe conservative, play-calling by offensive coordinator David Yost. But we did get to see how good Blaine Gabbert is – this 6-5, 240-pound gunslinger is going to be a salty NFL quarterback some day. Mizzou had plenty of success through the air, but kept calling quarterback draws that would yield about -5 yards every play. This tells me the Tigers coaching staff was trying to not give away any of its gameplan with Nebraska sitting around watching the game on Friday night. Both of these teams had bye weeks, but Mizzou actually had one more day of rest because Nebraska played on 9/26 and the Tigers a Friday night game 9/25. So there is no edge in preparation time. At this point, the Cornhuskers have played a better team (Virginia Tech) than any of the Tigers opponents, but the overall schedule is pretty comparable with a slight strength of schedule lean toward Nebraska. Nebraska is posting ridiculous point totals, ranking No. 9 scoring offense (39.3 ppg), but also remember they only amassed 15 points against Va. Tech. Missouri is no slouch at scoring either, holding the No. 15 in scoring offense (36.8 ppg) in the nation. This looks like it could be a shootout on paper, but I don’t think this one gets into the 70s. Comparing QBs for both teams, Nebraska’s signal-caller Zac Lee had only thrown two collegiate passes prior to this season. Gabbert hadn’t had much more experience than that, but in 131 pass attempts this season he has 0 INTs and 11 TDs. The Huskers boast the country’s No. 1 scoring defense, giving up seven points per outing, but they haven’t faced an offense like Mizzou’s so this will be its first major test. The defense is great and has a load of returning starters, but it is the same one that was decimated by Missouri last season 52-17 in Lincoln. Does this point to a coaching advantage…I think so. Nebraska tailback Roy Helu Jr. is tied for No. 6 nationally with 116.0 ypg on the ground, but his counterpart Derrick Washington racked up 139 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries last year in this game. Both teams are thin in the secondary department, but expect both to establish the ground game first in order to open the passing lanes. Missouri shines on a national stage at home and kicks a late field goal to win it.
RHL Prediction: Missouri 31, Nebraska 28
Red Hott Locks
No. 21 Nebraska (3-1, 0-0) at No. 24 Missouri (4-0, 0-0)
Thursday, October 8
ESPN
9:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Line: Missouri +1, O/U
Current Line: Missouri +3.5, O/U
The Missouri Tigers are starting to create a quiet vibration on the national college football scene. This week they find themselves in favor of the pollsters, positioned as the No. 24 team in the country. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing considering once a team shows up somewhere on that Top 25 list, you have a bull’s-eye on your back. Last week, the Tigers went to Reno and defeated Nevada (31-21) in a hostile environment and now they return home to open Big 12 play against the Cornhuskers. I felt like the game against Nevada could have been more of a blowout than the score reflected. There was very questionable, maybe conservative, play-calling by offensive coordinator David Yost. But we did get to see how good Blaine Gabbert is – this 6-5, 240-pound gunslinger is going to be a salty NFL quarterback some day. Mizzou had plenty of success through the air, but kept calling quarterback draws that would yield about -5 yards every play. This tells me the Tigers coaching staff was trying to not give away any of its gameplan with Nebraska sitting around watching the game on Friday night. Both of these teams had bye weeks, but Mizzou actually had one more day of rest because Nebraska played on 9/26 and the Tigers a Friday night game 9/25. So there is no edge in preparation time. At this point, the Cornhuskers have played a better team (Virginia Tech) than any of the Tigers opponents, but the overall schedule is pretty comparable with a slight strength of schedule lean toward Nebraska. Nebraska is posting ridiculous point totals, ranking No. 9 scoring offense (39.3 ppg), but also remember they only amassed 15 points against Va. Tech. Missouri is no slouch at scoring either, holding the No. 15 in scoring offense (36.8 ppg) in the nation. This looks like it could be a shootout on paper, but I don’t think this one gets into the 70s. Comparing QBs for both teams, Nebraska’s signal-caller Zac Lee had only thrown two collegiate passes prior to this season. Gabbert hadn’t had much more experience than that, but in 131 pass attempts this season he has 0 INTs and 11 TDs. The Huskers boast the country’s No. 1 scoring defense, giving up seven points per outing, but they haven’t faced an offense like Mizzou’s so this will be its first major test. The defense is great and has a load of returning starters, but it is the same one that was decimated by Missouri last season 52-17 in Lincoln. Does this point to a coaching advantage…I think so. Nebraska tailback Roy Helu Jr. is tied for No. 6 nationally with 116.0 ypg on the ground, but his counterpart Derrick Washington racked up 139 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries last year in this game. Both teams are thin in the secondary department, but expect both to establish the ground game first in order to open the passing lanes. Missouri shines on a national stage at home and kicks a late field goal to win it.
RHL Prediction: Missouri 31, Nebraska 28
Comment