10-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Stu Feiner

50,000-Dime NFL Private Player selections 21-5 since 2003!

Sunday NFL 50,000-Dime Private Play
New York Giants @ New Orleans 1:00 PM EDT

New York Giants +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Seabass
300 Philly
100 Houston
100 KC
100 Jax
50 Arizona, Baltimore
30 Caroline under
50 two team teaser Buffalo game Under/ Washington game Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers - Sunday October 18, 2009 1:00 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) TOTAL: Over 48 (-110) (Game of the Month)



Green Bay has been a “cash cow" L2Y as a home over, with a 12-6 over record at home last two seasons, despite the fact that 7 of those 18 home games were in the months of December and January, when the field at Lambeau is aptly called the "frozen tundra." And despite the QB change LY from Favre to Rodgers, the Pack retained their home over tendencies, going 5-3 to the over in their 8 regular season HGs (they did not make the playoffs) and averaging 48.5 total ppg in those 8 games. Moreover, the Pack was 9-3 to the over L2Y in division games (of which this one is), both home and away. And TY the pack is 3-1 to the over, averaging 54 total ppg in their last three, after “shaking the rust” off of their offense in their opener, an ugly 21-15 win over Chicago in GB. So adding that Chicago snorefest and GB’s 55 point home over against Cincy to their recent home totals record (with Rodgers at QB), we have 6-4 to the Over , with an average of 48 total ppg in those ten recent relevant HGs.

GB’s QB Aaron Rodgers has compiled some pretty amazing #s so far TY (1100 YP on 60% completions, with a 6/1 TD/INT ratio), especially considering the pressure he has been under, having already been sacked 20 times TY. And when he is not under a lot of pressure from a heavy pass rush, he is at his best, as he showed in a nearly flawless performance (270 YP on 60% completions, for two TDPs and no INTs) in Pack’s 36-17 win over the SL Lambs, a game in which he was sacked a season low two times. And not only is Lions’ secondary is a mess (with opposing quarterbacks having put up a passer rating of 119.7 with a 73.3 percent completion percentage against the Lions, both ranking worst in the NFL), but there are no real pass rushers (Hunter is one of three players with two of the Lions’ ten total sacks in five games) to help the problems in pass coverage. And while lions’ new HC Jim Schwartz prefers to play man-to-man coverage behind the blitzing of the 4-3 scheme he brought from the Tennessee Titans, he quite simply doesn’t have the personnel to pull it off with the Lions’ limited defensive personnel -- cornerbacks Anthony Henry and Phillip Buchanon have been benched at least once because of poor performance, and nickel back Eric King (shoulder) was lost for the season this past week. As summed up by one NFL scout, “They don’t have any blue-chip players, they just don’t have it. Sims, he’s OK, he’s one of the better guys. Delmas does some good things, the rookie. Peterson isn’t what he was. The defensive line is very average. It’s not a very impressive group to say the least.” That’s the most likely reason that Detroit is already 2-0 TY to the over on the road, not only with 72 points scored in both roadies (at NO and Chicago), but also having been torched on defense for 45 points by Saints and 48 by Bears. So we’re confident that both Aaron Rodgers and GB should have a big day on offense.

But it takes sufficient offensive input by both teams to push the total # of points over the total, so we need to explore the likelihood that the Detroit offense will generate enough points for that to happen. The big news for Detroit, especially on offense, as the week goes on, is whether the No. 1 pick of this year’s NFL draft, quarterback Matthew Stafford, will play after missing last week against Pittsburgh because of a dislocated knee cap. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz left open the possibility that Stafford could practice sometime this week (Wed and Thurs) and play Sunday, but that also could be gamesmanship to force the Packers to prepare for both Stafford and his back-up, the veteran Daunte Culpepper. And the Lions have a bye next week, so if there’s much doubt about Stafford’s physical condition they might be inclined to sit him at GB and then get him get an extra week of R&R (rest and recovery) with the bye. If he plays, Stafford has shown some big-league talent, particularly in Lions’ streak-busting home win over Wash, but mixed in with his three touchdowns are six interceptions, and whether his injured knee will prevent him from being the same confident young QB who beat Washington two weeks ago is a major question. But even if it’s Culpepper, he had some decent passing #s (completing 23-37 for 282 YP, with one TDP and one INT) in LW’s 28-20 loss to Pitt, but was also sacked a whopping seven times for 57 yards in losses, due to both his limited mobility on surgically repaired knees and poor pass protection by an OL that has already allowed 17 QB sacks TY (almost as bad as league leading GB). But with GB having one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL TY (just five sacks in four games), Culpepper will have enough time to check most if not all of his receivers before being flushed out of the “pocket” or being forced to throw, so we expect that even he would have a good day passing against GB. And whoever is at QB for Detroit will have one big-time weapon in WR Calvin Johnson (6-feet-5, 236 pounds), a rising star who has already 22 receptions TY despite being the focus of coverage. He injured his knee last week against Pittsburgh but appears to have a decent shot at playing this week. “Tremendous talent,” an assistant coach said. “Height-weight-speed guy who can go get the football. You have to be conscious of where he is because he can go make plays, he can go get the ball out of the air, and run past you. He’s a bigger, more physical looking Randy Moss; the same kind of speed though.” Unfortunately, all we know at this point about Johnson’s playing status for this game is that he is officially listed as “questionable,” and we won’t likely know any more until official injury updates are released Friday afternoon. But since we are afraid of the totals line moving up past this key totals # of 48 as the week wears on, we don’t have the luxury of waiting until then (Friday PM) to release this Over pick.

And while the Lions may not yet be any offensive powerhouse, their defense has been bad enough to help” them to a 20-6 Over record in their last 26 roadies over L3+Y, a 13-6 Over record L3+Y in division games, and a 7-3 Over record in road division games L3+Y.

Finally, a check with the “weather man,” always an important step for Over plays, especially in cold weather venues like green bay as we move deeper into the season, reveals a forecast of mostly clear skies, with game time temps in the mid 50s, which is where we also expect the scoring to be by midway through the fourth quarter.

So there it is -- our 5 unit NFC Totals Game of the Month on Over 48, our biggest totals pick so far this season.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

steve duemig



30 dimer ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Steve Duemig

Sunday sweep
30 Dime Ravens



At least the Ravens have someone who can block the Beast Jared Allen so that will keep Flacco up on his feet instead of on his back like Aaron Rogers suffered a few weeks ago. The nation is all full of Favre mania and the one team that should be able to stop both Petersen and Favre is Baltimore. While this is not your Daddy's Baltimore defense anymore they still can play some ball. Benson had a 100+ plus day rushing the football last week against them, which was the first time in a long time that has happened. Baltimore had Cinncy stopped last week on two separate occasions last week and they committed horrible penalties to keep drives alive. Ray Lewis was one of the guilty parties and he won't let that stuff beat him again. The Ravens need a win to avoid a three game losing streak and the Vikings to me just dont look like a team that could be 6-0. Sorry but I don't see it. SF had this Viking offense bottled up all day before the Favre miracle throw to Lewis. I believe that Baltimore can and will muster up enough to get the job done today. Viking run D has been their weakness and the Ravens have two big boys going for them in Rice an Magehee.



10 Dime Bears



Atlanta looked absolutely unbeatable last week on the west coast against The 49ers. They are going to have to play like that this week as well and I don't think that will happen. There are glaring flaws or weaknesses in Atlanta's defense. The first weakness and perhaps most glaring is their weak secondary. They simply haven't played anyone who can exploit it properly.... until today with Jay Cutler coming to town. He has new found weaponry with Knox and Bennet so they can throw the ball down the field and exploit this secondary. Second weakness is who do they have that an offense would fear in getting to the QB? Only Abraham comes to mind and no one else. Therefore it is easy to slide protection to one player and they will do just that. We look for the Bears to not simply cover but to win the game outright.



5 Dime Buccaneers



This week the Bucs finally get back their pro bowl center Jeff Faine and believe me it will make a lot of difference. The young QB Josh Johnson will no longer have to make the line calls at the line as he had to do as a rookie and he really never had a chance. With Faine back it will allow Johnson to play QB and have one less thing to worry about. The return of Faine will also bring back into play the Bucs running game which went bye-bye the last few weeks since he has been out. Johnson showed me some nice progression from his first start to his last one. He shows some flashes of being a very sound QB in this league .Carolina picked up their first win last week off of a gift from the Redskins punt returner or these two teams would both be looking for their first win. Let's face it. The Bucs have been horrible this year and they realize that this is the their absolute best chance to get a win. The finger pointing is just starting inside the locker room of the Bucs. Win today and the fingers go back in the pocket. Lose and they will be pointing every which way!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

NORTHCOAST
3.5* Minnesota - 3
3* Pittsburgh -14
3* New England -9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* NFL Sunday "Early" Double-Digit BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh Steelers -14(+102at 5dimes)

The Steelers face a Cleveland Browns team that features one of the worst offenses in the league. The Browns are scoring just 11.0 points/game this season and putting up 248 yards/game. Those numbers get even worse on the road. In 3 games away from home, Cleveland is scoring 5.0 points/game and putting up 193 yards/game. The Browns will not be able to score enough points to stay within 2 touchdowns of the Steelers Sunday, bottom line. In their last home meeting, Pittsburgh beat Cleveland 31-0. Expect a similar final score Sunday. Pittsburgh welcomes back Troy Polamalu and Willie Parker to the lineup Sunday, which only makes this team even more dangerous. Ben Roethlisberger has picked up right where he left off from the Super Bowl, throwing for 1,470 yards while completing 74% of his passes with 8 touchdowns already in only 5 games. This team can now beat their opponents both running and throwing the football. Cleveland can't do either. The Browns won 6-3 last week at Buffalo despite a 2-for-17 passing performance from QB Derek Anderson. Yeah, their defense played well, but the Browns aren't going to keep the Steelers off the scoreboard Sunday like they did against a pathetic Bills' offense. It's clear that Cleveland will miss Braylon Edwards, because they no longer have any proven targets on the outside for Anderson to get the ball to. Cleveland is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 9 points or less last game over the last 3 seasons. Pittsburgh has put up an average of 33.0 points/game in their last two contests as this offense is starting to hit on all cylinders. Look for somewhere around a 31-7 final in this one. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Advanatge Sports' Sunday plays and write-ups.
#209 Chiefs +6

#211 Texans +5.5

#218 Jaguars -9.5

#230 Jets UNDER 36*** he feels bad weather will drive this line to 33.5 so play it now....

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________


As stated in last week's NFL writeups, the Redskins opponents at the time the Skins played them have all been winless now that KC lost to Dallas in OT last week (a winner for us with the Chiefs). As bad as that is, some of these teams got their first win against these same Redskins... the pitiful Lions snapped a massive losing streak against them, the Panthers only win is against them and the Rams, who have been wasted by everyone this season only lost 9-7 against them. Tampa has lost every game by at least thirteen points and only fell by 3 to Washington. They are becoming dysfunctional with the owner forcing an "offensive consultant" onto Jim Zorn's staff to help with the offense, all without introducing Sherman Lewis to the coach or asking his opinion. The offensive line lost their two best remaining linemen for this game, Chris Samuels for this week at least and Randy Thomas is gone for the year. They have a castoff from the Bills, who have line issues of their own. How bad must he be to have been released by a team starting two rookies on their line? The other new starter has been out of football for four years after Buffalo cut him as a former #1 draft pick. This is a team lacking in confidence and chemistry. Granted, the Chiefs are no prize. But they do bring effort every week and have shown improvement while being the youngest roster in the NFL. They have been in every game to the end despite huge yardage negatives in most of their events this season. They should have beaten Dallas last week and this will be the third NFC East game for them in a row. The advantage they do have is Todd Haley and Clancy Pendergast as the head coach and defensive coordinator, both of whom were on the Cardinals staff last season. The Cardinals played Washington last year, so they have a familiarity with the Redskins, knowledge and game tape of tendencies of what worked in the past. The Skins staff has no such knowledge of an out of conference foe. In a game that will likely be played in rain and wind, creating a low scoring affair, remember that the Skins have struggled to score in perfect dome conditions. That bodes poorly to gain much of a margin, if any, over a team that is close in desperation to themselves and will be around all day long. Consider an UNDER play as well as long as it stays above 34.
Chiefs 13, Redskins 6.


While the Bengals are obviously much improved on defense and special teams, some of the improvement has been matters of circumstance. They could just as easily be 0-5 as 4-1 right now, or even 5-0 spare the miracle tipped pass that Denver captured to beat them at the end. Each and every game has been tight and emotional, with the last three being AFC North games. So now these same Bengals, who after three straight division wins and the sadness and heartache that fueled last week's win after their defensive coordinator's wife died suddenly on Thursday night, now play a non-division game against a team that manhandled them last year. I struggle to see how they can gather the emotion needed to play a game that has no bearing on their division lead. Of course, the "revenge motive" is there, but even NFL athletes can't "bring it" 16 times or more each season. There are flat spots. Every team has them. It is one of the key situations I look for in handicapping this sport, both NCAA and NFL. Cincy may look at Houston's losses and 2-3 record and think that they can mail in a victory. Remember, this is a team that is just now tasting a small amount of success after YEARS of miscues and misery. They have been told all week how great they are and are on all media shows. The Texans defense is poor so far this year, most certainly. But they made a couple of scheme changes last week in game and shut down the Cardinals in the second half. Maybe that will turn some things around. ear in mind that even with all of the Bengals success this year, they are only +11 in points over their opponents, so they aren't blowing anyone out. These same basic Texans won by 29 last year over Cincy, and while the Bengals are better probably, are they 34 points improved over the previous result? Each season is different of course, but some teams match up poorly against others regardless of records or talent. This writeup says that Houston wins the game.
Texans 27, Bengals 23.


Yes, the Jags are bad. However, they are not "Rams" or "Raiders" bad. After the beatdown in Seattle, a game that set up so poorly for them, they come home with the bye week ahead of them to earn a chance at redemption. Jack del Rio hasn't lost the team and they will give an effort that St. Louis can not match. The Rams are now outdoors, off surface, very thin at wideout and are soft defensively. Even getting Bulger back shouldn't make much difference without wideouts to spread the field and enable the running game to get started. The Rams are on an 0-15 run and 5-10 against the spread over that period. While the Rams changed coaching staffs, they still have some of the same players and plays. This may help Jacksonville in some small part, because long time Ram wideout Torry Holt is now on their side of the field and has some insight on both the St. Louis offense and defense after so many seasons there. The Saints average more points per game offensively than the Rams have scored all season. Even going to a no-huddle to start the game didn't help, Kyle Boller fumbled an it was returned for a TD on the first series. I will take David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew's skills in a must win home game before the off week, before the season is lost so early. With a tough division slate ahead, these games are vital and I feel confident that a big bounce back off of last week's disaster, and this is the Rams fourth trip in six weeks. Are the St. Louis players still trying?
Jaguars 35, Rams 13.


Even in perfect game conditions, I would still look hard at an UNDER in this game with Buffalo and the Jets. The Bills can't do anything offensively, have two rookies and a first year starter on the offensive line and have lost eleven straight games going against a 3-4 defense. The good news for them is that they are getting healthier in the back seven defensively and should have success slowing the rookie QB of the Jets, who won't be placed in risky situations with the elements. The Jets defense was ripped publicly by new coach Rex Ryan after the MNF game and have a short week to correct things. The Bills shouldn't provide much of a test after the three point effort last week against the Browns, 32nd in defense in the NFL. They have scored only 20 points total in the last three games. Add the rain, snow and winds of 20+ to a late afternoon start and you have a good, old fashioned field position battle.
Jets 3, Bills 2.

Best of Luck,

Mychal Jeffrey Meyers
Advantage Sports

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* NBC Sunday Night Football BLOOD BATH on Atlanta Falcons -3(+105 Bodog)

The Atlanta Falcons used their bye week to perfection, bouncing back from a loss at New England to destroy the San Francisco 49ers 45-10 last week on the road. Now they return home to a rowdy crowd that will be cheering on Matt Ryan and company to beat the Chicago Bears on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Atlanta is 2-0 at home this year, outscoring the likes of Miami & Carolina by 10.0 points/game. Their defense is allowing just 13.5 points/game at home. Chicago is very lucky to be 3-1 right now, with a last-second home win against Pittsburgh where Steelers' K Jeff Reed missed two chip shot field goals late. The Bears also had to come from behind to beat Seattle on the road, a Seahawks' team that was playing without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck in that one. The Bears won't get those same kind of breaks against Atlanta Sunday, because the Falcons are one of the most complete teams in the league. Their offense is very tough to tame, averaging 106 rushing yards and 240 passing yards/game with excellent balance. Chicago is having a very tough time running the football right now, which will force Jay Cutler to try and make more plays, which will lead to more mistakes. The Bears are averaging just 89 rushing yards/game on the road and 2.9 yards/carry away from home. This is a tough spot for the Bears, as Chicago is just 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite since 1992. They have been very fortunate to play a soft schedule with the Seahawks and Lions in their last two, but we see this trend holding true as they travel to face an Atlanta team that has all the tools to compete for the NFC Championship. Also note that Chicago is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Take the Falcons and lay the points. (Line is -3 as of Wednesday, if it creeps up to 3.5 by game-time we recommend buying the 1/2 point. But it's still a 5* play all the way up to -4.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Savannah Sports

Professional Plays
Eric Degarde
MLB Baseball
4 (****) Philadelphia Under 8

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* Widow Wiseguy 2009 NFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks -2.5(-110 bookm)

The home team has dominated this NFC West rivalry, and with Matt Hasselbeck back healthy this is a completely different Seattle team. The Seahawks are 2-0 in games where Hasselbeck has played the entire contest. They won 28-0 over St. Louis in their opener and then 41-0 against Jacksonville last week. He has returned from a rib injury that kept him out of action in losses to the 49ers, Bears & Colts. In just 2.5 games, Hasselbeck has thrown for 617 yards and 7 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions. Arizona owns the worst passing defense in the league, giving up 303 passing yards/game. Hasselbeck and this offense will have their way with the Cardinals' secondary, and the Seahawks' defense will continue playing well after recording their second shutout of the season last week. The home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Seattle is 2-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents 29.3 to 8.3 for an average margin of victory of 21 points. Their lone loss came to the Bears after blowing a late lead, also a game where Hasselbeck was not present. The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. A win Sunday will get the Seahawks right back in the NFC West race, and they aren't about to squander this opportunity. This team simply does not lose at home, especially with star QB Matt Hasselbeck under center. Take Seattle and lay the points. (We got in at -2.5 on Wednesday, but it's still a 6* Play up to -4)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

The Boooj:



25 units on NY Giants (+3) over New Orleans
15 units on Philadelphia (-14) over Oakland
10 units on NY Jets (-9.5) over Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

john ryan
all 3 are 7*'s

redskins
browns
raiders

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Marc Lawrence.

NFL
Baltimore vs. Minnesota
1:00 EST

The Ravens travel to Minnesota of back-to-back losses looking to get back on the win track today. Aside from enjoying good success in this series (5-1 ATS last six), Baltimore is 8-1 ATS in October when playing off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. On the other side, the Vikings are 0-5 ATS against opponents off a SU favorite loss. With Minnesota off an 'inside-out' win over the Rams in which they were outgained, 400-377, and just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in games off a double-digit ATS win against AFC opponents off a SU favorite loss, look for the Ravens to pull of the upset.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-18-09

Joyce sterling 10 star underdog oak+14 also oak under 41