10-19-09

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 09:45 AM

Re: 10-19-09

Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

3% DENVER +3.5

SAN DIEGO -3.5 Denver 44

DENVER 26 SAN DIEGO 16

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 09:45 AM

Re: 10-19-09

Red Zone

Full Play - Denver under

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 10:51 AM

Re: 10-19-09

Tim Trushel

20* San Diego Chargers
angels/regular play

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 12:15 PM

Re: 10-19-09

spartan | NFL Side Mon, 10/19/09 - 8:35 PM

triple-dime bet 235 DEN 3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 236 SDC
Analysis: Who would have thought that it would be Denver rolling into this big battle the undefeated team at the start of the season. Not me. But I am very, very impressed with what new head coach Josh McDaniels has done with this squad. Frankly I feel the wrong team is favored here. The last two weeks with wins over both the Cowboys and particularly the Patriots opened my eyes. I also like what Brian Dawkins adds to that secondary, they have not had a player back there like that since the Steve Atwater days. The Chargers are riding on reputation a lot in my view and I have never been a fan of Norv Turner. I realize the Chargers are coming off a bye week but I still am not sold that it is going to be a real factor. Tomlinson is appearing to be a shell of himself and Sproles is an electric special teams guŽy but he is no every down back. I honestly feel we are getting points with the superior ball club. Kyle Orton manages the game and does not make critical mistakes, McDaniels saw he was the guy he wanted and took a chance on him. I'd say he is being proven right.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 12:54 PM

Re: 10-19-09

Sean Michaels
Monday's Play San Diego

Note: This line is -3 1/2 everywhere here in Vegas.

As I discuss in the video on my homepage, it's prudent to buy the 1/2 point on or around the numbers 3, 4 and 7. Thus, if your price is San Diego -3 1/2, go ahead and purchase the half-point down to make the Chargers -3 instead, so we walk away with a push should they only win by a field goal.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 01:02 PM

Re: 10-19-09

Craig Davis
Monday's Lineup
30 Dime --- CHARGERS (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 1/2)

15 Dime --- YANKEES

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (this line is holding steady at -3 1/2. if that's the case, buy the half point down to -3) --- It's starting to happen again... and it's only Week 6. Teams that shouldn't be winning (Oakland, Buffalo) are winning games, not only against the number but straight up, and it's probably only going to get worse. My job is to find those spots and deliver them to you --- and I believe I see one here tonight. What we have is a 5-0 team vs. a 2-2 team, and the 2-2 team is a 3 or 4-point favorite. Granted, they're at home where they do tend to play better, but still, this line should tell you what Vegas is thinking. You have a two-and-a-half game lead over your opponent and you're still the underdog. Something smells funny.

Looking back at the history of this series recently, the Chargers have dominated winning five of the last six with Denver... and in reality, it should be six straight. We all remember the infamous Ed Hochuli phantom fumble call on Jay Cutler that was recovered by San Diego and should have resulted in a Chargers win. Instead, Hochuli called it an incomplete pass, Cutler got another chance, threw a TD pass and completed the two-point conversion for a 39-38 win. Bottom line: San Diego has owned this series over the last three years and have won their last three at home vs. Denver by an average of 26 PPG... that's pure domination if you ask me.

The Chargers have had two weeks to prepare for this game and we all know how well their offense plays when under the lights in primetime. Denver, meanwhile, is off back-to-back fourth quarter home wins against Dallas and New England. I realize their defense is playing much better this year, but if memory serves me correctly... the Jets defense was playing really well until coming into Miami last Monday night... and it disappeared. Miami ran up and down the field on the Jets while Chad Henne completed 20 of 26 passes and two touchdowns. I see a similar result here tonight in San Diego. The Chargers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 at home as a favorite, 21-8-4 ATS in their last 33 vs. divisional rivals, and 6-1 ATS at home in their last seven vs. teams with a winning road record. It's gonna be all Chargers tonight as they win this thing by at least 10 points.

NY YANKEES ---- Simply put, the Yankees broke the Angels spirits Saturday night when they came from behind (down one run) in the bottom of the 9th inning with an Alex Rodriguez solo home run. That dinger tied the game and forced extra innings where they would get a Macier Izturis error that led to the game-winning run in the 13th. Needless to say it was a long plane ride home for the Angels as they find themselves in an 0-2 hole and now have to face lefty Andy Pettitte who pitched very well in Game 3 of the Yankees' series with Minnesota last week. Pettitte went 6 1/3 innings, allowing just three hits and one earned run as the Yanks cruised to a 4-1 win and a series sweep.

Jered Weaver will try to stop the bleeding for Anaheim as he draws a Yankees offense that has tatooed him in seven career starts. Weaver has allowed 27 earned runs in 41 innings of work in seven career starts against New York, including his last outing in which he was beaten up for five earned runs in 7 1/3 innings in an Angels loss. We get a near pick 'em price with the Yankees tonight and I'm just wondering how I could go against them when they're winning games every which way you can think. Pettitte is a crafty veteran who has pitched in numerous post-season games (including 15 post-season victories) and he knows that if he can give his team 6 or 7 quality innings of work tonight, they have a great shot to win yet another in the post-season. The Yankees are the play tonight.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 01:03 PM

Re: 10-19-09

Benton

Monday's winner ...

25 Dime: CHARGERS (minus the points vs. Broncos) ... NOTE: Buy the half-point with San Diego, taking this number from -3 1/2 to the key number of -3.

Chargers

Let me take you back a little more than a year. The San Diego Chargers entered the 2008 season as the odds-on favorite to win the AFC West title, but after two weeks, they were 0-2 after a pair of heartbreaking, last-play-of-the-game losses to Carolina (26-24) and at Denver (39-38, the so-called “Hochuli” game). All the experts that had forecast such great things for the Chargers started changing their tune, calling them overrated, a team that couldn’t close, a team that didn’t have heart, a defense that was like Swiss cheese. The very next week, Brett Favre and the upstart Jets came to San Diego on a Monday night … and the desperate Chargers jumped out to a 38-14 lead and rolled 48-29 as a nine-point home favorite. They had 357 yards to 308 for the Jets and forced four turnovers, including picking off Favre three times.

The Chargers followed that up with a blowout win over the Raiders and all looked well. Then they went to Miami and lost 17-10 to a Dolphins squad that was 1-15 the previous year, and doubters started chirping again. Sitting at 2-2, San Diego was at a crossroads, with hated New England – a team that had had the Chargers’ number the previous three years and a team starting to feel good about itself at 3-1 with Matt Cassel as the quarterback – was on deck on a Sunday night. All the Chargers did was make Cassel look exactly like a QB who had started just four games since high school and San Diego rolled to a 30-10 win as a six-point home favorite (and the score was 30-3 late in the fourth quarter), outgaining the Patriots 404-299.

Of course, the Chargers failed to capitalize on the momentum from that Patriots win, losing five of their next six games (the only victory coming by a 20-19 score against the crappy Chiefs, who went for a game-winning 2-point conversion instead of a tie and overtime in the waning seconds). Again, the San Diego haters came out of the woodwork. So what happened next? The Chargers ripped off four straight wins, including three by margins of 24, 17 and 31 points, culminating with a 52-21 season-ending rout of these Broncos as a seven-point home favorite. That result allowed San Diego to best Denver and win the AFC West title all the experts had the Bolts pegged to win in August. Not only that, but the Chargers went on the next week to upset the favored Colts in the first round of the playoffs.

Here’s the point of all this: Whenever the Chargers have been doubted recently, whenever they’ve had their backs against the wall, they come out swinging. And after that humiliating, uglier-than-the-final-score-indicates 38-28 loss at the Steelers on prime time two Sundays ago – followed by a well-timed bye week – I expect the Chargers tonight to once again step up, overcome adversity, play up to their capabilities, live up to their preseason hype and, most of all, shove it down the throats of their haters while at the same time bringing the high-flying Broncos back down to earth.

See, the simple fact is that the 2-2 Chargers aren’t as bad as they looked against Pittsburgh (and, to some extent, as bad as they looked in their other loss at home to Baltimore). Nor are the 5-0 Broncos as good as their record indicates. To that latter point, I’m not saying Denver’s a total fraud. What I am saying is the Broncos have benefitted from an unbelievably fortunate schedule and that – much like the Jets and Ravens and Bengals and Giants and Eagles – they’re due for a come-down against a quality opponent this week.

To review Denver’s season to this point: It started with that fluky 12-7 “Brandon Stokely tipped-pass” victory at Cincinnati. That was followed by a home win over the Browns and a road win at the Raiders, two of THE worst teams in the NFL. Then came two more home games against the overrated, inconsistent Cowboys and last Sunday’s gritty, 20-17 overtime win over the Patriots, whose Hall of Fame QB (Tom Brady) missed countless open receivers and, apparently – after yesterday’s six-TD-in-just-over-a-half performance against the Titans – was one week away from returning to the Tom Brady Of Old.

The fact the Broncos got the Cowboys and Patriots in Denver was a BIG deal. It’s not easy for teams to play in the thin Mile High air, particularly when they don’t regularly have to. So I’m not real surprised that the Broncos dominated both of those games in the second half (not to mention outscored Cleveland 17-0 in the second half in their first home game).

Now, though, the Broncos leave the comforts of Mile High and head to a venue where they’ve had ZERO success recently. Denver’s last three trips to San Diego have ended in SU and ATS losses by scores of 48-20, 23-3 and 52-21. In fact, take away that Hochuli debacle – a game the suits in the NFL office agree the Chargers should’ve won – and San Diego has won and covered five straight against Denver, with four of those wins coming by an average of 29.3 points per game! And don’t kid yourself – the Broncos were NOT that bad of a team the last three years. Hell, they were 8-5 last year before their season-ending collapse.

A couple of additional notes about the Chargers: QB Philip Rivers – who is finally getting his due as one of the best quarterbacks in the game after getting off to another tremendous start despite having zero running game behind him – has owned the Broncos since becoming the Chargers’ starting quarterback in 2006. He’s been at the helm during San Diego’s 5-1 run vs. Denver, and he’s posted a passer rating greater than 115 while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes for 257.3 yards per game with 12 TDs and three INTs. Also, Rivers is undefeated in four games on Monday Night Football, winning by scores of 27-0 (home), 23-3 (vs. Denver at home), 48-29 (at home) and 24-20 (on the road). Throw in Sunday and Thursday night marquee games, and Rivers is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS under the prime-time lights, and that includes last week’s loss to Pittsburgh.

In addition to being 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games against Denver and 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games (3-0 at home), the Chargers are on impressive ATS streaks of 21-8-4 against the AFC West, 4-1 at home, 21-5 when favored by 3½ to 10 points and 18-7-3 after a defeat.

Bottom line: This is a gut-check for the Chargers and a classic letdown spot for Denver. Yes, the Broncos’ defense has been great this season, but it hasn’t faced an offense as prolific and in tune as the Chargers are – certainly they haven’t faced such an offense on the road. And with two weeks to prep for this contest and fix their issues on the offensive line and in the defensive front seven, I have to believe the Bolts will be playing at their peak tonight – just like they were against the Jets and Patriots in prime-time action last year. At the same time, I believe the Broncos are due for a wake-up call in much the same way the Eagles, Ravens, Jets, Giants and Bengals got slapped in the face by reality yesterday. Chargers roll 34-17.

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 01:21 PM

Re: 10-19-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W id ow W ise gu y 2009 M NF G A ME OF T HE Y EA R on San Diego Chargers -3(-130 at bookm)

This is our strongest release on the Monday Night stage for all of 2009! The Denver Broncos are 5-0 this season, but they are about to get their first taste of defeat in blowout fashion against the San Diego Chargers. San Diego is coming off a bye week, so they have had plenty of time to prepare for Denver which gives the Chargers a huge advantage. They have also had some time to get healthy, so look for the Chargers to come out with their best effort of the season Monday. This is a division rival, and the Chargers have been nothing short of dominant against the Broncos in recent years. The Chargers are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Broncos, including 3-0 in L3 home meetings with wins by 31, 20, & 28 points. Kyle Orton has played very well at home for Denver this season, but he will get rattled on the road in a very hostile environment Monday. The Chargers sit at 2-2 right now, so they know that this is a must-win if they want to compete for a division title this season. That just adds more fuel to the fire in the motivational department for San Diego. To put it bluntly, the Broncos may be the worst 5-0 team in the history of the NFL. Denver is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after a win by 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons. The Broncos are just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 vs. division foes. The Chargers have done well at home under head coach Norv Turner, going 14-6 ATS, including 4-2 ATS vs. divisional foes. The Chargers are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. This thing has double-digit blowout written all over it. Take San Diego and lay the points. (We got in at -3, -130 on Wednesday. Line is already up to -3.5 at most places. Recommend buying 1/2 point down to -3 but this is still a 6* play up to -4)

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 02:29 PM

Re: 10-19-09

A.redd

san diego chargers

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 02:29 PM

Re: 10-19-09

Ats

3 san diego

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 02:29 PM

Re: 10-19-09

Vegas Runner

2* ANA -130

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 02:48 PM

Re: 10-19-09

NorthCoast Marquee Play
SD/Den Under 44.5

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 02:48 PM

Re: 10-19-09

SSG

YOU HAVE PURCHASED THIS CONTENT

OK new week and new plays!! We end last week with a +$3,490 on the week in the playoffs and hitting our 10* Game of the week on the OVER Phillies was jsut the icing on the cake. Anyway today we have our 9* Best bet of the day on deck!! Get in on this early before the books find out what we have and the lines start changing!! Its once again GUARANTEED!!
Premium content follows:

ALCS GM3
NY v. LA 4:10pm
We start Monday off with an early payoffs game 3 and go in to Anaheim with the Yankees as +120 ML underdogs as of right now. You have Pettite against Weaver. Both these pitchers have looked absolutely fabulous this season and are pretty much lights out when they pitch. Once again now the Angels are 2 down on the Yanks and are in desperate need of a win here at home after some errors at Yankkee stadium costs them the game. The O/U comes in at 8.5 again and we once again can not in any way justify anything other than the UNDER here. The Angels bullpen has looked great and well lets just say the Yanks bullpen is the Yanks bullpen. Its situation like these however that you really need to look at the talent behind each team and who can pull out the win when its really needed. With the Yankees as an underdog, its just making our ears ring!! We are just suckers on taking them + money anytime. Its never a bad bet matter what.
PICK: UNDER 8.5 +105 (9*) Best bet of the day
PICK: Yankees ML +120 (4*)

**Mr. IWS** · 10-19-2009, 02:48 PM

Re: 10-19-09

teddy covers

Angels

Chargers

10-19-09

10-19-09

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