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Re: 10-24-09
Northcoast
4* AZ under51
Northcoast
4* AZ under51
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Re: 10-24-09
Scott Rickenbach’s College Football Game #385 - 10* (TOP PLAY) TCU Horned Frogs (-) @ Brigham Young @ 7:30 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!
Some will be looking to play the “revenge card” here but it’s just not the right match-up for the Cougars to get their revenge. Many will remember that TCU ended BYU’s run for an unbeaten season last year when the Horned Frogs crushed Brigham Young in their match-up at Texas Christian University. However, the problem for the Cougars here in terms of avenging that loss and trying to do to the Frogs what they did to them last season is that we’re going to see a similar problem for BYU that we saw earlier this season when they hosted (and got crushed by!) Florida State. In that game against the Seminoles we saw what team speed did to the Cougars and we will see a repeat of that here. The Horned Frogs have great team speed and they fly to the ball on defense. That can cause a lot of disruption to an offense and it can also cause turnovers. As good as Max Hall is at QB for Brigham Young, the Cougars have had turnover problems this season. Also, their defense was totally exploited by the Seminoles in that home loss last month and we foresee more struggles for the Cougars on that side of the ball in this match-up.
The weather is expected to be favorable for this game and that’s bad news for the Cougars. A big reason that the Horned Frogs had a recent stretch where two of their three wins were tight games had a lot to do with the weather. Rain was an issue at Clemson and versus Southern Methodist. Then, it was icy with chilly breezes in a tight win at Air Force. Next up was a home date with Colorado State and the Frogs routed the Rams by 38 points. Four of the Horned Frogs wins have come by an average margin of 28.5 points per game. The two tighter wins were in rain against Clemson and ice against Air Force. Now in the ideal weather that is expected in Provo, Utah by Saturday at game time, we expect the Horned Frogs offense to have the Cougars defense struggling to match their speed. Note that last year TCU outgained by a margin of 240 yards to 23 yards on the ground. Even though the Cougars threw for 274 yards in that game, Hall was sacked six times and he only completed about half of his passes and turnovers were an issue for BYU in that game as well. Additionally, Andy Dalton of the Horned Frogs is having a fantastic season as has been at it is best in the second halves of games. That shows just how clutch the junior is and his numbers in the second half show amazing completion percentages. He’s able to lead the team down the field when it counts the most and while Hall of BYU is certainly a phenomenal talent in his own right, note that the Cougars only returned three other offensive starters this season.
The group surrounding Hall is not as talented or experienced as the one that did last year. This means Hall is at a big disadvantage going against a stellar Horned Frogs defense while TCU’s Dalton has the edge of going against a Cougars defense that has shown it can be quite porous at times. As noted in the intro above, BYU certainly wants to avenge last years loss and they certainly still have a talented offense. However, their defense, is just not on par with that of the Horned Frogs and we saw how TCU dominated in this game last season. If TCU was in a flat spot or not focused on this game they could be in trouble. But that is absolutely not the case under head coach Gary Patterson as he has this team fully prepared and the players are geared up to prove themselves (again) on the road and stay undefeated. It’s not only the BCS aspirations that motivate this team. Keep in mind that they want to prove they belong at the top of the MWC. They already were very sharp in defeating a physical Clemson team on the road four weeks ago (we used them in that spot) and their physicality and speed is going to combine to wear down the Cougars in this spot. Play TCU minus the short number as a 10* Top Play selection.Comment
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Re: 10-24-09
Marc Lawrence
CFB
TCU vs. BYU
7:30 EST
A big Mountain West Conference clash kicks off at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo Saturday evening when BYU hosts TCU. Last year the Cougars opened the season 6-0 and appeared ready to become a BCS bowl crasher when they invaded Fort Worth to take on the Horned Frogs. After the dust settled, TCU killed those dreams with a 32-7 loss. As a result revenge rears its head today, a role in which BYU has excelled, going 10-2 SU and 12-0 ATS as a dog of less than 10 points when playing with conference revenge dating back to 1980. In addition, Cougars head coach Bronco Mendenhall is 2-0 SU and ATS in this roles with BYU. He is also 23-4 SU at home, including 15-2 in conference play with only one loss by more than one point. On the flip side, TCU coach Gary Patterson has developed a black-and-white home/road dichotomy, going 22-8 ATS in home game but only 12-20-1 ATS away in conference play. In fact, in his college head coaching career, Patterson is 0-5 SU and ATS as a visitor when facing an opponent with a win percentage of more than .800. The clincher is this system from our powerful database. It tells us to: Play On any college home pick or dog off a victory with a win percentage greater than .750 from Game Six out versus an opponent off an ATS win of 9 or more points who won it's last game by less than 50 points, if the home dog won 6 or more regular season games last year. That because these home teams are 14-0-1 ATS in this roles since 1980. Stay at home with the Cougars in their perfect payback mode here tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on BYU.Comment
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Re: 10-24-09
Rocketman
CFB
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
12:00 EST
Georgia Tech coming off a HUGE win over Virginia Tech and could be in for a letdown in this one. Georgia Tech is allowing 36 points per game on the road this year. Virginia is 3-0 SU their last 3 games. Virginia is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home vs Georgia Tech since 1992. Yellow Jackets are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Yellow Jackets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass. Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in October. Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win. Cavaliers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0. Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Cavaliers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog. Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. Home team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Yellow Jackets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Virginia. We'll play Virginia for 5 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.Comment
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