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Re: 10-25-09
Tim Trushel
20* Miami
ov cincy / reg
un pitt /reg
ov carol /reg
Tim Trushel
20* Miami
ov cincy / reg
un pitt /reg
ov carol /reg
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Re: 10-25-09
Dominic Fazzini
Sunday's plays
30 Dime -- GIANTS (minus points vs. Cardinals)
10 Dime -- Colts (minus points vs. RAMS)
GIANTS
Let me start by saying this: The Cardinals suck playing in the Meadowlands.
Arizona has played at Giants Stadium against both the Giants and Jets 17 times since moving to Phoenix in 1988, and it has won there just twice, and the last time was in 1999.
The Cardinals' running game is horrendous, averaging just 57.6 yards per game, and that doesn't bode well for the health of quarterback Kurt Warner.
The Giants were unable to sack Saints quarterback Drew Brees last week in New Orleans' 48-27 victory last week after getting 15 in starting 5-0. But with Arizona's inability to balance things out on offense, New York is going to pin its ears back in an effort to keep constant pressure on Warner, who has a propensity to fumble the ball on occasion when harrassed.
The Giants' running game, which ranks fifth in the league with 147.7 yards per game, should help keep Arizona's offense off the field, and New York QB Eli Manning should be able to move the ball against the Cards' pass defense. The Giants average nearly 30 points per game, and they might surpass that total tonight.
Arizona went 0-5 on the East Coast last year during the regular season, and the Giants are going to be determined to bounce back with a big victory after getting embarassed by the Saints last week. Take New York to win by double digits tonight.
COLTS
The Rams might be the worst team in football, and now they get to play an undefeated Colts team that is coming off a bye week. That's not a good situation for St. Louis to be in today.
Peyton Manning is having perhaps the best season of his career, as hard as that is to believe, completing 73.5 percent of his passes for 1,645 yards and 12 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
And now he gets to tee off against a St. Louis defense that is allowing 252 yards through the air per game, ranking 27th in the NFL.
The Rams are averaging a league-worst nine points per game, and although they should be slightly better with Marc Bulger back at quarterback, they have nowhere near the firepower to stay close to Indianapolis.
To make things even worse for St. Louis, Colts safety Bob Sanders might return to the lineup today, and cornerback Kelvin Hayden should be back after missing three games with a hamstring injury.
The Rams have lost 16 straight games, and they could get demoralized early facing the quick-strike attack of Manning and Co. And Indianapolis is 4-0 straight up and ATS after a bye.
The Colts also are 4-0 ATS overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1-1 on the road, 9-2 in October and 12-4 on the road vs. NFC opponents. St. Louis, meanwhile, is 8-17 ATS overall, 3-9 at home and 3-12 as a home underdog. Take Indianapolis to win by more than 20 points today.Comment
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Re: 10-25-09
Bobby Maxwell
Sunday's winners
500-Unit NFL Book Buster - NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Dolphins have not been able to deal with the Colts’ passing game or the Chargers’ passing game. There’s no way in hell Miami’s defensive backfield is ready for the Saints’ onslaught that is about to hit them.
New Orleans has the NFL’s most prolific offense, averaging 430 yards per game and 38.4 points per contest. Throw in the fact their defense isn’t all that bad and this looks like a perfect matchup for the Saints.
Miami is going to try to control the clock with the rushing game, and while it is the league’s best rushing attack at 177 yards per game, they can’t eat up the entire quarter with each possession. The Wildcat offense will do its normal thing and put up some yards, but the Dolphins aren’t going to be able to keep up with the Saints.
This game is going to resemble the Dolphins-Colts Monday Night Football game that saw Miami dominate the clock, but the Colts come out and score in four or five plays whenever they got it.
New Orleans is on several ATS runs, including 15-5-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0 against teams with losing records, 17-5 as a favorite and 6-1 as a non-division road favorite. Miami is on ATS slides of 15-36-1 at home, 1-4 as an underdog, 2-5 as a home ‘dog and 0-6 against NFC squads.
This game could get ugly for the Dolphins quickly. Lay the chalk and play the Saints.
100-Unit AFC West Wipeout - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
The San Diego Chargers have their backs against the wall and have got to shift to must-win mode. This team is too talented offensively to think they aren’t going to walk into Arrowhead Stadium today and light up the Chiefs’ defense.
I know these teams played two thrillers last season, but San Diego has got too much talent on offense to be stifled in this one. Philip Rivers and the passing game is ranked fifth in the NFL, getting 284 yards per game through the air. Rivers has several talented targets in Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Chris Chambers. Look for the Chargers’ coaching staff to put the ball in Rivers’ hands and let him go win this game with his arm.
Kansas City got its first win of the season last week in Washington, scoring a 14-6 win as 6 ½-point underdogs. The Chiefs just can’t seem to score enough points to be able to stay in this game. And their defense is giving up 24 points a game, including ugly losses to Baltimore, Philadelphia, Dallas and the Giants when they gave up 26 points or more. Offensively, Kansas City is 30th in the NFL, putting up just 259.7 yards per game.
The Chiefs are on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 4-12 at home and 2-5 as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Diego is on several solid ATS runs, including 21-9-4 against AFC West opponents and 6-3 in the last nine as a favorite in AFC West games.
Loving the Chargers today in this must-win situation. Lay the chalk and play San Diego.Comment
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ATS
thanks.Comment
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Re: 10-25-09
Chris Jordans picks for today...
Chris Jordan Sunday's winners ... He hit big play yesterday...
400? INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - Talk about teams at the opposite ends of the spectrum, this one shouldn't even be close by the time they head into the locker room at intermission.
Indianapolis is No. 1 in league passing offense (326 yards per game) and completion percentage (73.5), and much of that can be attributed to the protection Peyton Manning is receiving, as the Colts' offensive line have allowed an NFL-low-tying two sacks, just the same as the Falcons.
Now you put that offense into this matchup off a bye week, which was preceded by a trio of blowouts over the Cardinals (31-10), Seahawks (34-17), and Titans (31-9) and you ask one of the worst teams in the league to play keep up? I don't think so.
The Rams, who have now lost 16 straight dating back to last season, and who is 5-33 in its last 38 games dating back to 2007, rank last in NFL scoring offense with just 9.0 points per game and is still just one of three teams in the league without a rushing touchdown, along with the Bills and Chiefs.
And for as anemic as St. Louis has been on offense, I can't imagine what it'll look like off a well-rested defense that has allowed an NFL-low two touchdowns through the air and a league-low-tying six total touchdowns this season. Can you imagine if Indy's stop unit sees the return of star safety Bob Sanders?
It's really not going to be fair, as the Manning is en route to having one of his most successful seasons ever. He's dissected some of the better defenses in the league, not to mention some of the worst, and now he's going up against a defense that ranks 27th in in the league's passing defense category.
I realize we're not too far removed from this being a high-scoring affair, but today it'll be a miracle to see the Rams put any points on the board whatsoever.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Manning take a seat late in this one, once the Colts get up by 28 or more points.
100? OVER Cowboys/Falcons - While Dallas is hoping to emerge from its bye week with offensive intensity, it better be concerned with how the Falcons will counter today. They're off to a 4-1 start - the franchise's best record after five games since 2004 - and has one of the more explosive offensive units in the NFL.
Of course it all depends on Michael Turner, whose running antics set up Atlanta's passing game perfectly. Of course, even if he is lethargic, sophomore signal-caller Matt Ryan has been rock solid behind a stellar offensive line that has allowed a sack in four straight games. He is capable of setting up his dink-and-dunk passes for offensive-drive production, or can go vertical with speddy wideout Roddy White.
I do believe the Cowboys will dictate the pace in this one, however, as the Cowboys have won both of their games after a bye in the team's first two seasons under Wade Phillips. And since Dallas has tallied the second-most yards in the NFL this season, I believe we're going to see the Pokes come out swinging today. Felix Jones and Marion Barber are back to provide the 'Boys with full strength attack on the ground, and it appears Tony Romo has found his new favorite target in Miles Austin.
Look for both offensive units to be on blast today, as this total will soar.Comment
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Re: 10-25-09
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 25, 2009
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436 NY Giants -7 8:20 ESTComment
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Re: 10-25-09
Matt Fargo Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 25, 2009
$45.00 Guaranteed: Matt had a WINNING NFL Week 6 as he went a SOLID 4-2 ATS (66.7%) with his Premium Reports! He has shown a profit in each of the last three weeks and four of the last five while bringing home +34.9 Units over that stretch! He is releasing a HUGE 10* DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR Sunday and his 10* Plays are a NEAR PERFECT 6-1 ATS! The streak is extended in a big way! Guaranteed!
10* San Diego ChargersComment
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Re: 10-25-09
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 25, 2009
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ONE AND ONLY NFL BLOWOUT BOMB
417 Chicago -1 4:15 ESTComment
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Re: 10-25-09
Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
Date: Sunday, October 25, 2009
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ONE AND ONLY NFL BLOWOUT BOMB
417 Chicago -1 4:15 ESTComment
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Re: 10-25-09
TEDDY COVERS
Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Minnesota Vikings +6
The betting marketplace isn’t showing much respect for the Vikings this week, as money continues to pour in on the Steelers, driving the line up from -4 to the current number of -6. Sure, Minnesota has been on the lucky side to get to 6-0, surviving a missed field goal from the Ravens last week and winning on a miracle Brett Favre touchdown pass in the closing seconds against San Francisco.
Still, the Vikings offense has been nearly unstoppable, the second highest scoring team in the league, producing at least 27 points in every game. The Vikings have been money in the bank on the highway, winning all three of their road games by at least two touchdowns.
With Adrian Peterson upgraded to probable (ankle), the Steelers defense is going to have a hard time slowing down Minnesota’s balanced attack. This is the best offense they’ve seen all year and the Steelers are playing without one of their best defensive linemen, the injured Aaron Smith. Troy Polamalu is still less than 100% despite his return to the lineup.
Pittsburgh has been a money burner since opening day, covering only one pointspread in six tries this season. They’ve been dominating the statistical battle, winning ‘yards per play’ in every game; but those dominating stats haven’t resulted in pointspread success. Even in their Super Bowl season last year, the Steelers only won half of their home games by a TD or more. Look for Minnesota to trade points with Pittsburgh right through the final gun, making them an attractive choice in this pointspread range. 2* Take MinnesotaComment
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Re: 10-25-09
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000? Dolphins
2. 50,000 Steelers
1. Dolphins- Absolutely love this spot for the Fish, as they've got a multitude of factors in their favor, from perception, to rest/prep time, to home field, and on and on! Guys, I know after watching the Saints crush the Giants last week, A LOT of you are on the Saints once again today, but that's EXACTLY what Vegas wants you to do! Don't fall for this obvious trap, and I'll explain why and how the Dolphins cover in the following paragraphs...
First, let's start with perception, as the everyone and their grandmothers think the 5-0 Saints are unbeatable to this point. With the league's top-ranked offense and a defense that "appears" to have vastly improved, how can the 2-3 Phins possibly stick with the high-powered Saints, right? WRONG! The Saints may be 5-0, but that's a flimsy 5-0 at best. Why? Besides the Giants, tell me one good team they've beaten? Eagles with Kevin Kolb starting NO. Jets who are now 3-3 and look like a very average team under the struggling "Sanchise" NO. Then you add in wins against Detroit, and Buffalo and there's your 5-0... Sorry, but I'm hardly impressed, and if anything, we should be looking at a prime letdown spot here one game removed from he Saints HUGE win over the Giants.
Next, there's the fact the Dolphins come into this contest off a bye. They got to see the Saints beat up on the Giants last week, and Sparano and company got an extra week to rest and prepare for this one. Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their L6 coming off a bye, and needless to say the Parcell's disciple knows how to game-plain with extra prep time. You simply cannot overlook the value of getting a live home dog coming off a bye in a game no one expects them to win!
Then there's the home field edge and what I like to call the "battle-tested" edge. Home feld is self explanatory, but as far as battle-tested-ness, the fact the Saints have yet to trail in a game this season is a big-time red flag. Why? Because we know the Dolphins are going to slow down the game by running the rock down the Saints throat. Miami will force the Saints to play a close, black-and-blue style of game, and I belive that's the ONLY way to beat Brees and company, as your sure as hell not going to keep pace with their offense. Miami has been in several close games this seasn, and their style of play is perfectly matched to slow this kind of offense (just like they did in the Colts game, know all they have to do is play a little defense).
Finally, going back to something I said earlier: I told you that the Saints stop-unit "appears" to be vastly improved, but I put appears in quotations for a reason. You see, because the Saints have yet to trail this season, their defense has been able to pad their stats as teams are forced to throw the ball all over the field trying to close the gap. Trust me, New Orleans defense may be improved, but not by nearly the amount people are giving them credit for. In the end, take the points and watch, as the Phins execute a similar gameplan as the one they did against the Colts, but this time they get it right (thanks to the extra prep time).
Take the Dolphins plus the points over the Saints as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Steelers- Speaking of teams that are OVERRATED, the Vikings are another good example. Don't get me wrong, Minnesota is a very good team, but the way the media is piling praise on them, you'd think they were a complete team when they're definately NOT. Read on...
Yes, the Vikings offense is damn good, with the best RB in the world, coupled with a resurgent Favre, who's benefied greatly from seeing one-on-one coverage on the outside thanks to Peterson. However, where the Vikings are vulnerable is on the other side of the ball, allowing 21 ppg on a whopping 424 total yards over their L3 games! Guys, I don't care how perfect your record is, having a middle-of-the-road defense will cost your team eventually... And that eventuality happens today in Pittsburgh.
So why lay this many with the Steelers? Well, its more a play against the Vikes, who I expect will lay an egg following a VERY hard-fought battle with the Ravens last week. Its never easy to play back-to-back top-tier defenses, and I suspect we'll see a major drop-off in the Vikings offense today because of it. Pittsburgh meanwhile is coming off back-to-back tune-up games against the Lions and Browns, and will have their full attention on grabbing the NFL spotlight with a big win today against the unbeaten Vikings.
Speakig of defense, while many think the Vikings can torch the Steelers defense just like they did the Ravens last week, I disagree. Fact is the Ravens defense ain't what it used to be, but the Steelers are as good as ever, allowing 17 ppg on just 256 total yards at Heinz Field this season. The return of a healthy Polamalu cannot be underscored, and he looked great against the Browns, grabbing an INT. Look for the Steelers to really put the clamps on an unfocused Vikings offense in this one.
Finally, several trends really stood out to me: A. The Steelers are 20-7 ATS as 3' to 10 home favorites, which should be music to Pittsburgh-backers in this one. B. The Steelers also step up when playing tougher competition, going 7-2 ATS their L9 games against teams with a winning record. Vikings meanwhile are just 5-12 ATS after a SU win AND just 2-6-1 ATS in their L9 non-conference road games. In the end, it may look tempting to grab the points with the undefeated team, but rest-assured, Minnesota won't remain unbeaten after this contest, as the Steelers get the solid home win and cover Sunday.
Take the Steelers over the Vikings in this NFL match up.Comment
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