10-25-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

Larry Ness 26* NFL Play:

Sunday, October 25, 2009
1:00 PM (EST)
Pick:
Pittsburgh - 4.5 hosting Minnesota
Reason:
The Vikings almost blew a 27-10 4th-quarter lead against the Ravens last Sunday but came back to take a 33-31 lead with 1:56 remaining, then survived when Baltimore kicker Steven Hauschka missed his late FG try wide. The NFC North-leading Vikings are now 6-0 (first time since 2003) and looking to move to 7-0 for the first time since 2000 (made NFC championship game that year). To get to 7-0, the Vikings will have to win at Pittsburgh, the defending Super Bowl champs, which have won three straight since a 1-2 start and will take a seven-game regular season home winning streak into the contest (nine in a row counting two wins in LY's postseason). Favre has completed 69.7% for 1,347 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs and is third in the NFL with a 109.5 QB rating. AP's 618 rushing yards leads the NFL (seven TDs), as the combo has allowed Minnesota to average 31.5 PPG (2nd-highest in the NFL), having scored at least 27 points in all six games in 2009. While the Steelers are not running the ball like Pittsburgh teams of the past for the second straight season (rank 15th in the NFL at 107.0 YPG), check out Big Ben's numbers. He's completing 72.5% for 1,887 yards (No.2 in the NFL at 314.5 YPG) with 10 TDs and six INTs (104.5 QB rating is right behind Favre). Ward is No€. 1 in yards receiving (599), tied for first in receptions (41) and leads the NFL with 10 catches for 20-plus yards. The team's other Super Bowl MVP, Holmes, has 28 catches (15.6 YPC) plus TE Miller has 34 catches with four TDs. Let's get to the defenses. The Steelers allow 275.2 YPG (3rd) while the Vikings allow 341.8 YPG. Pittsburgh allows 74.5 YPG on the ground (2nd) while the Vikings allow 93.5 YPG. Pittsburgh's pass D allows 201.0 YPG (58.4%) while Minnesota's allows 248.0 YPG (64.9%). Safety Troy Polamalu is back for Pittsburgh but Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield suffered a sprained right foot in the second quarter vs Baltimore and may miss here. Bottom line is this. The Vikings are 6-0 but they've only out-gained TWO of six opponents (the Browns and 49ers), while the Steelers have out-gained all SIX of their opponents. Note that Pittsburgh just out-gained the Browns 543-197 (Minnesota out-gained them just 310-268), who have lost 11 of their last 12 games. The Rams, who have lost 16 straight games out-gained the Vikings 400-377 and the Lions, who have lost 22 of their last 23 matched the Vikings (265 yards to 265) in Week 2. My point is the Vikings are 'ripe' for a loss. I expected them to lose last week to the Ravens and won with the Ravens as my 25* Underdog GOY. I'm upping the ante in Week 7. Unlike the Broncos, Colts and Saints, the Vikings haven't been putting opponents away week after week. Minnesota could (should?) have lost to the 49ers, could have lost to the Packers and last week 'escaped' vs the Ravens, who had 4th-quarter scoring drives of 75, 73 and 33 yards before driving 41 yards and then missing a game-wining FG. Minnesota's "luck runs out" vs the defending champs and it won't be close! NFL 26* Pit Steelers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

Dr. Bob

2 NFL Best Bets this week on Indy -13 for 3-Stars and the NY Giants -7 for 2-Stars.

3 Star Selection
***Indianapolis (-13.0) 34 ST. LOUIS 13
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
NFL road favorites of 10 points or more tend to suffer a letdown against their inferior foes, especially if the superior visitor is coming off a win the previous week. Such was the case last week with Philadelphia being unprepared in Oakland. Double-digit road favorites off a win the previous week are just 34-56-2 ATS, but the Colts likely avoided a letdown by having an off week last week. In fact, road favorites with a .500 or better record (after 5 or more games) are 37-13 ATS following their bye week, including 6-3 ATS as a double-digit road favorite. Without a letdown situation applying I have no reason not to take the Colts in this game against a horrible Rams team that has lost 21 of their 38 games the last 3 seasons by 14 points or more, including 4 out of 6 this season. If the Rams lose over half of their games by 14 points or more then their chances of losing by that margin are even greater against an elite team like the Colts. The Rams, like most bad teams, are only competitive against other bad teams or if they're coming off their bye week. In 26 games the last 3 years in which the Rams are not off a bye week and not facing a losing team they are just 1-25 straight up, 4-21-1 ATS, and have lost 18 of those 26 games by 14 points or more (4 out of 4 this season). The Colts would qualify as one of the better teams that they have faced, as Indy is out-scoring their opponents by an average of 13.2 points this season while fielding a potent offense (6.9 yards per play) and a defense that has allowed just 4.5 yppl for the season while holding all of their opponents to 4.9 yppl or less. Holding the Rams pathetic offense (just 4.7 yppl against teams that allow 5.4 yppl) in check should be no problem and Peyton Manning, who is having his best season ever, is likely to abuse a Rams' defense that has giving up 7.5 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 5.8 yppl against an average team. The Rams have faced two good quarterbacks this season and they gave up 10.0 yards per pass play to Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and 9.9 yppp to Brett Favre and the Vikings. Imagine what Peyton Manning can do against that defense (hint: my math model projects 410 pass yards at 10.2 yppp).

My math model actually favors the Colts by 19 1/2 points and gives them a 57.6% chance of covering based on the historical performance of my math model. I have another math model that predicts a fair line and the fair line on this game is 17 1/2 points. If the fair line is 17 1/2 points, then the Colts have a 63% chance of covering at -13 points and a 60.5% chance at -14 points (56.9% at -14 1/2). I'll take Indianapolis in a 3-Star Best Bet at -13 1/2 points or less and for 2-Stars at -14 points.

2 Star Selection
**NY GIANTS (-7.0) 27 Arizona 13
05:20 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Arizona is coming off a couple of impressive pair of wins over Houston and Seattle, but the Cardinals are stepping up in class tonight against a Giants team that will be eager to rebound from last week's blowout loss at New Orleans. Arizona's offense has been barely better than average this season thanks to a non-existent rushing attack (3.1 ypr), as the Cards have averaged a modest 5.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kurt Warner and company have only been able to move the ball well against bad defensive teams Jacksonville and Houston and they've been held to 4.9 yppl or less in games against solid defensive teams San Francisco, Indy, and Seattle. The Giants defense rates at 0.6 yppl better than average, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team and they're pass rush should be even better than normal knowing they don't have to worry too much about the run.

Arizona's defense has been good, allowing just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team, but the Giants' attack has averaged 6.2 yppl this season and is 0.7 yppl better than average with quarterback Eli Manning in the game. The Giants not only have an advantage from the line of scrimmage, but they are less likely to turn the ball over and have a edge in special teams too. My math model favors New York by 12 points and Arizona applies to a negative 29-78-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Giants apply to a 67-29-4 ATS statistical profile indicator. New York is also 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games, including 7-1 ATS the week following a loss. I'll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.

Strong Opinion
PITTSBURGH (-5.5) 31 Minnesota 20
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Minnesota is 6-0 straight up and has out-scored their easy schedule of teams (2.2 points easier than average) by an average score of 31.5 to 20.2 points. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 4-2 and has out-scored their even easier schedule (3.3 points easier than average) by just 23.3 to 18.7 points. You may look at that and wonder why Pittsburgh is favored by more than the standard home field advantage of 3 points, but I look at these two teams knowing that the Steelers should be favored by even more points. The Steelers have out-gained their opponents 405 yards at 6.4 yards per play to 272 yards at 4.9 yppl this season, but have been kept from dominating on the scoreboard due to bad special teams and a -5 in turnover margin. The special teams problems may continue but Pittsburgh should average a turnover margin of just -0.1 per game going forward based on QB Ben Roethlisberger's history of 1.0 interceptions per game and the randomness of fumbles.

Minnesota has out-gained their weak schedule by just 349 yards at 5.8 yppl to 342 yards at 5.5 yppl and the Vikings have been just 0.2 yppl better than average on offense and 0.5 yppl worse than average on defense after compensating for strength of opponents. The reason Minnesota is unbeaten and out-scoring teams by 11 points per game is because they've been great in special teams and are +8 in turnover margin (+1.3 per game). The Vikings are a random +4 in fumble margin and it's not likely that Brett Favre will continue to throw just 0.3 interceptions per game given his long history of turnovers (312 interceptions in 275 starts, including 22 picks last season with the Jets). Favre was very careful in the first two games, throwing mostly short, safe passes, but he's starting to throw the ball down field with abandon and the interceptions should start to accumulate at his normal rate. Favre's more aggressive passing the last 4 games has also aided the offense, which has been 0.6 yppl better than average the last 4 games with Favre airing it out more (he averaged just 7.2 yards per completed pass the first 2 games and has averaged 12.7 ypc the last 4 games).

With their improved offense the Vikings do have a 0.4 yppl advantage over a Pittsburgh defense that is just 0.2 yppl better than average (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average just 5.0 yppl against an average team). However, Pittsburgh's offense is one of the best in the league with RB Rashard Mendenhall running for 304 yards the last 3 games and averaging 5.1 ypr for the season. Willie Parker returned from injury last week but Mendenhall remained the main back and will continue in that role. With a better than average ground game the Steelers are tough to stop, as Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 7.9 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. The Steelers' pass attack has been particularly potent the last 3 weeks agaisnt worse than average pass defenses (9.1 yppp) and the Vikings have the worst pass defense of any team that Pittsburgh has faced this season. Minnesota is still good defending the run (3.9 ypr allowed), but the Vikings have surrendered 6.5 yppp this season to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average only 5.6 yppp against an average defense. Minnesota has had the luxury of facing the sub-par pass attacks of Cleveland, Detroit, San Francisco, and St. Louis, but they gave up a combined 709 passing yards at 7.9 yppp to better than average passing teams Green Bay and Baltimore, who would combine to average 6.5 yppp against an average team. That defense figures to be even worse without All-Pro cornerback Antoine Winfield, who is listed as expected to miss after injuring his foot in the middle of the 2nd quarter last week. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco accumulated just 31 yards on 10 pass plays when Winfield was locking down top receiver Derrick Mason, but Flacco racked up 336 yards on 35 pass plays after Winfield left the game. Pittsburgh would average 8.0 yppp against an average pass defense and they should top 9 yards a pass in this game, as the Vikings' other cornerbacks are just not good. Overall, the Steelers offense (1.1 yppl better than average) has a huge advantage over a Vikings' defense that is 0.5 yppl worse than average for the season and at least 0.7 yppl worse than average without their star corner.

My math model predicts a huge 454 yards at 7.2 yppl to 307 yards at 5.2 yppl advantage for Pittsburgh in this game and I favor the Steelers by 5 1/2 points even if I give Minnesota the 4.7 points advantage for special teams. The key is turnovers, which my model projects at just a 0.2 advantage for Minnesota rather than the 2.2 turnovers per game difference between these teams so far this season (Minn +1.33 per game and Pitt -0.83 per game). There isn't any line value here, but Minnesota applies to a negative 92-164-9 ATS scheduling situation and a very negative 13-54-3 ATS statistical indicator that is based on the Vikings' extremely positive turnover margin (it's good to play against teams that have been that lucky with turnovers). With the technical analysis added in the Steelers have a solid 55% chance of covering at -5 1/2 points (56% at -5) and I'll consider Pittsburgh a Strong Opinion at -6 or -5 1/2 and I'd take Pittsburgh in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.

Strong Opinion
Buffalo 16 CAROLINA (-7.0) 17
01:05 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Carolina covered the spread for the first time all season last week against a horrible Buccaneers squad and they weren't even impressive doing it, getting out-gained 4.9 yards per play to 5.5 yppl. I keep waiting for the Panthers to start playing as well offensively as they should be playing, as I see no reason why the same 11 players from last season's good offense suddenly are struggling. The rushing attack has actually been pretty good (4.4 ypr), but quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has been 0.5 yards per pass play better than average for his career (and was great last year), has averaged just 5.2 yppp this season against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback. Delhomme just isn't getting the ball downfield like he normally does. Last season his two main receivers, All-Pro Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, combined for 2344 yards on 236 passes intended for them for a very good 9.9 yards per attempt. This season Delhomme has averaged just 5.5 ypa on 85 passes thrown to Smith and Muhammad. Delhomme is completing 59.4% of his passes, which is the same as his career average of 59.6% completions, but he's averaged just 10.7 yards per completion compared to his lifetime average of 12.2 ypc. Also, the same front line that gave up just 20 sacks of Delhomme last season has already given up 13 sacks in 5 games, and that lack of time to throw may be the reason why Delhomme hasn't been able to get the ball down the field as much. As it is the Panthers have averaged just 4.6 yards per play this season and rate at 0.9 yppl worse than average with Delhomme at quarterback. Buffalo has had to deal with plenty of defensive injuries already this season but they continue to play good defense despite those injuries and I see no reason to adjust their good defensive rating (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team) until they show some signs that the injuries are affecting their play. Carolina won't produce much offense if they continue to struggle throwing the ball deep, but the Panthers should run the ball very well in this game.

The Panthers' defense has played well, allowing just 5.3 yppl to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average stop unit, and Buffalo's offense is in bad shape with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback in place of the injured Trent Edwards. The Bills have only averaged 5.0 yards per pass play this season but that number is likely to get worse given that Fitzpatrick has averaged just 4.4 yppp in his career. My math model projects just 232 total yards at 3.8 yppl for the Bills in this game, but that would be enough to cover if Delhomme and the offense play at the level they've consistently played at this season. In fact, my math would favor the Panthers by just 3 points even after adjusting for Fitzpatrick at quarterback for the Bills. If Delhomme suddenly plays at his better than average career level then Carolina would still only be favored by 8 points, so the line wouldn't be too unfair for the Bills even in the worst case scenario that the Panthers suddenly start clicking on offense.

That possibility will keep me from playing the Bills as a Best Bet in this game, but Carolina applies to a very negative 28-71-2 ATS home favorite letdown situation and I'll consider Buffalo a Strong Opinion in this game at +6 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Chicago 24 CINCINNATI (-1.0) 19
01:15 PM Pacific, 25-Oct-09
Cincinnati was a team with a mediocre offense and a solid defense that started the season by winning 4 out their 5 close games. The solid defense part of that equation is no more with the season ending injury to pass rushing DE Antwan Odom, who was hurt early in last week's loss to Houston. Odom had 8 sacks and an incredible 18 solo tackles (for a lineman) in just 5 games and he'll be sorely missed. Based on a formula that equates yards per pass play allowed to sack percentage I calculate that Cincinnati's defense will be at least 0.6 yards per pass play worse without Odom (about 2 points per game) if they replace him with a player or players that can register 4 sacks over a full 16 games. That's a big if considering that the other top 7 defensive linemen have combined for just 5 sacks all season and rookie Michael Johnson, who should get the start in place of Odom, has zero sacks. Odom was injured early last week and the Bengals allowed 9.2 yppp to the Texans, so perhaps the Bengals' pass defense will be even worse than expected without Odom.

For the season the Bengals' defense has now allowed 5.4 yards per play to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team and I rate that unit at 0.3 yppl worse than average without Odom, as there will have to be more blitzing to generate a pass rush and that will put pressure on the Bengals' mediocre secondary. Chicago is just average offensively (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team), but the Bears should move the ball at a pretty efficient rate today with Jay Cutler having more time to throw.

The real advantage in this game is the Bears' stingy defense that has allowed just 4.8 yppl this season and still rates at 0.5 yppl better than average since losing star LB Brian Urlacher in week 1. Cincinnati is just average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl), so the Bengals are at a disadvantage on both sides of the ball in this game. Chicago also has a significant edge in special teams, as the Bears are once again near the top of my special teams ratings (3rd) while Cincinnati ranks 25th in special teams.

My main math model gives Chicago a 59.3% chance of covering in this game, but my other model makes a fair line of Cincinnati by 2 points even after adjusting for Odom's absence. My main model has been good over the years but it's better when the second model, which I've been testing for the last two years, confirms the line value. The combination of the two models results in the Bears having a 54.5% chance of covering, which is certainly good enough to make Chicago a Strong Opinion in this game at pick or as a dog.

The math model chance to cover listed below is based on the historical performance of my model for each difference from the line and does not take into account key numbers or any situational analysis, which may favor the opposite side (as has been the case numerous times this season). Please read my full analysis of a game to find out what my final prediction is. All games not part of the Best Bet email can be found on the site in the free analysis section.

[GoBlue]

Re: 10-25-09

BURNS

Play Title **10** Burns' PERSONAL FAVORITE! (AFTERNOON ROUT!)
Play Selected Point Spread: -4/-101
I'm laying the points with DALLAS. With a 4-1 SU/ATS record, Matt Ryan and the Falcons have shown that last year was no fluke. That said, this is a tough spot for them. They're off a hard-fought "prime-time" win over the Bears last Sunday Night and they've got a huge divisional showdown with the undefeated and division-leading Saints on deck. While the Falcons are off that tough victory, (they were outgained by a 373-253 margin!) the Cowboys had last week off. The fact that the Cowboys had last week off is significant. For starters, they had several nagging injuries and the week off has providing some important 'healing time.' Also, the Cowboys weren't playing up to their potential, so the time off came at a good time, in that regard. Additionally, the Cowboys have won their two previous games, following byes, under coach Wade Phillips. Last season, the Cowboys entered their bye week off a 35-14 loss at New York and having gone just 1-5 ATS their previous six games. However, the time off seemed to refresh them, as they went 3-0 SU/ATS in their next three games, following the bye. The previous season, the Cowboys won six straight games after their bye, including a convincing 38-17 win at Philadelphia in the week immediately following the bye. Looking back further and we find the Cowboys at a profitable 16-8 ATS (18-6 SU) the last 24 times that they were coming off a bye. As impressive as their 4-1 record sounds, it should be noted that the Falcons were beaten pretty badly (26-10) by the Patriots, so it's not like they're unbeatable. Coincidentally, the Falcons entered that game having won back to back games, as they do for this afternoon's game. Therefore, it's worth noting that, including the loss to the Pats, the Falcons are now 0-7 ATS the last seven times that they were coming off back to back victories. This game has extra significance for linebacker Keith Brooking. Brooking, a Georgia native, played his college football at Georgia Tech. He also spent his first 11 seasons with the Falcons, before signing with Dallas in the offseason. He's been a big plus to Phillips' defense, as he leads the Cowboys with 29 solo tackles. Naturally, Brooking will be "fired up" to face his former team. He was quoted as saying: "I'd be lying to you if I was like, 'Ah, I'm not trying to prove to those guys that I can still do it at a high level...'" Speaking of the Dallas defense, it should be noted that the Cowboys have 10 sacks their last three games - after having none in their first three. As for the offense, the Cowboys' 420 yards per game ranks second in all of football - second to only the Saints - well ahead of Atlanta's 327 per game. In addition to it being a big game for Brooking, this is a big game for the entire Cowboys team. A loss here and they fall to .500. With the Giants and Eagles both playing well, that may be a tough hole to dig themselves out of. As running back Tashard Choice had to say: "It's time to exert ourselves and get an identity for our team. We need a big push for the second quarter of the season. We've got to be ready to make a move, to get ourselves on track." I expect the Cowboys, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS their last five against the NFC South, to do just that, covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 4:15 PM EDT Miami Dolphins Premium Play
Click to View Additional Details
Play Title **BIG GAME ALERT** Burns #1 NFL GAME OF THE MONTH!
Play Selected Point Spread: 6/-102
I'm taking the points with MIAMI. Its true that the Saints have looked good. Ok, really good. I don't think it's a "fluke" either. As I mentioned when I took them vs. the Giants last week, they've always been good offensively and this year, they're also playing better on the defensive side of the ball. That said, I also think the Dolphins are better than a lot of people think. Let's not forget that this team won the AFC East last season. Also, since starting the season with three straight losses, they're now coming off back to back victories. Additionally, everyone else has seen how impressive the Saints have looked and the perception that they're "unbeatable" has driven this line way up. Looking at the Dolphins' losses and we find that two of them came on the road and that the three losses all came vs. top tier teams, the Falcons, Colts and Chargers. The Dolphins are 2-1 at home and the lone loss came by four points vs. the Colts, a game which they dominated statistically. Note that the Colts, a team which currently has an identical 5-0 record as the Saints, were only favored by three points when they played here. Now we're getting a much bigger line. I believe that provides us with plenty of value. Looking back a bit further and we find the Fish with six wins in their last eight games here. In addition to playing at home and getting a large handful of points to work with, I believe that the scheduling situation favors the Dolphins. Yes, they're coming off back to back divisional games and they've got another pair of divisional games on deck. That's not normally an ideal situation. However, they're also coming off a bye week and having seen what the Saints have been doing to the rest of the league, they know they certainly can't afford to get caught 'looking ahead.' Note that the bye week should allow linebacker Jerry Porter to return to the lineup. Additionally, note that the Dolphins were 6.5 point home underdogs (sound familiar?) following their bye last season. They responded by knocking off San Diego outright. They dominated that game, too. Miami had 23 first downs to San Diego's 10 and held the ball for nearly 37 minutes. As for the Saints, they're off a huge "statement win" over the Giants AND they've got another very big game vs. Atlanta, their primary division rival, on deck. That's followed by another division game (Carolina). In other words, in my opinion, they very easily could get caught looking past Miami. After last week's impressive performance, they could also be starting to "pat themselves on the back" a little. Its also worth noting that Drew Brees is 0-3 vs. the Dolphins. The Dolphins can run the ball (1st in NFL) AND they can stop the run, ranking third best in the league in that category. Since Henne became the starter, they're also getting improved QB play while avoiding turning the ball over. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10 games played in October. Playing their third straight at home, I believe they've got what it takes to hand the Saints their first loss. *10 GOM

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

For the Lang Lovers::

LANG RESULTS for 10/24/09

50 DIMES - DUKE - PUSH /LOSS-- ILL GIVE HIM THE PUSH
15 DIMES - KANSAS - LOSER
15 DIMES - WASHINGTON - LOSER

25 DIMES - ANGELS ALCS PLAY - PENDING

-33 DIMES


LANG 2009: 340-382-11, -1016 Dimes

Lang By Month:

January: +61.5 Dimes

February: -170 Dimes

March: +14.5 Dimes

April: -308.5 Dimes

May: -13.5 Dimes

June: -81.25 Dimes

July: +17 Dimes

Aug: +50 Dimes

Sept: -312.25 Dimes

Oct: -273.5 Dimes


Lang For The Week: 10/20 to 10/26

Tuesday: -10 Dimes

Wednesday: -7.5 Dimes

Thursday: -1 Dimes

Friday: +20 Dimes

Saturday: -33 Dimes

Sunday:

Monday:

Week Total: -31.5 Dimes

__________________________________________


Lang MLB '09 Playoffs: 2-9, -$8,650

$100 Wagered Per Dime

05 Dime Plays: 1-4
10 Dime Plays: 1-2
15 Dime Plays: 0-2
20 Dime Plays: 0-0
25 Dime Plays: 0-1

__________________________________________


Lang College Football: 22-28-1, -$21,850

$100 Wagered Per Dime

05 Dime Plays: 4-3-0
10 Dime Plays: 5-8-0
15 Dime Plays: 7-7-0
20 Dime Plays: 4-4-0
25 Dime Plays: 1-1-0
30 Dime Plays: 0-2-0
40 Dime Plays: 0-2-0
50 Dime Plays: 1-1-1


__________________________________________


Lang NFL: 11-19-0, -$28,200
$100 Wagered Per Dime

05 Dime Plays: 2-1-0
10 Dime Plays: 2-8-0
15 Dime Plays: 5-1-0
20 Dime Plays: 0-3-0
25 Dime Plays: 0-0-0
30 Dime Plays: 0-4-0
40 Dime Plays: 1-1-0
50 Dime Plays: 1-0-0

100 Dime Plays: 0-1-0

__________________________________________


Lang FADE College Football: 28-22-1, +$13,200

$100 Wagered Per Dime


Lang FADE NFL: 18-11-0, +$19,550

$100 Wagered Per Dime

Lang's Teaser Plays Are Not Included In The Fade

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

burns

10*dallas
10*miami

[wayneschultz]

Re: 10-25-09

anybody seen Root's card

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

LANG

Sunday's Selections ...
NOTE:

They flat out dominated Maryland.



Only once did Maryland drive the field all game, and even then they settled for a field goal. Their next field goal was set up by a Duke interception. Their only touchdown was on a 3rd and 18 screen pass from their own 33 that went for 67 yards for a touchdown.



Duke fumbled at the Maryland 30, going in for at least 3 points and lastly, how about a fumble at the Maryland 1 yard line to start the 4th quarter and for all intents and purposes, a push instead of a win.



So I move on to today and my 3rd straight 50 dime winner in the NFL. That is how good my 50 dime run has been in the NFL.



Not a bad 4-1-1 run with 50 dime releases. Not bad at all, but let's be honest with one another here, 5-1-1 is a whole lot better.



So let's get to it.



50 DIME - OAKLAND RAIDERS - Wouldn't suprise me if the Raiders knocked off the Jets exactly the way they did the Eagles.



Let's see, off a divisional home loss in OT, to traveling 3 time zones to the west coast, with a rookie QB who confidence is already shaky, facing an improving Oakland team without all pro nose guard Kris *******.



And the linesmaker sees fit to ask the Jets to cover a near touchdown?



Folks, this may sound really simple but if you can beat the Philadelphia Eagles and their offense at home, you can beat the Jets and a rookie QB as well. It really is simple as that.



I like the way this Raiders defense matches up with the Jets offense. Forget about the Raiders offense. That isn't the matchup that will determine this football game. It will be the Jets offense with young Mr. Sanchez at the helm versus the Raiders defense.



Folks, they made Donovan McNabb look very average. Very average. In fact they made the whole Eagles team look average and that was an Eagles team playing arguably their best ball of the year.



Now they get a Jets team playing perhaps their worst ball of the year and the bottom line is this as bad a situation the Jets could be possiby coming into. Simple as that.



For head coach Rex Ryan the honeymoon is over and the reality is setting in that I just don't have that good a football team.



My 50 dimer is the Raiders and I wouldn't be suprised to see the Raiders do exactly to the Jets what they did to the Eagles and that is win the game outright.



50 dime Raiders



15 DIME, 3-TEAM - 10-POINT TEASER - Going to have some fun today taking 10 points away from the Colts, Patriots and Steelers to prevent any crazy backdoor madness that may occur.



Let's start with the Colts coming off their bye week ready to just shred this Rams team much the way everyone else has. The Colts have put up over 30 points in their last 3 games and have beaten the Arizona Cardinals by 21 on the road and the Titans by 22 on the road.



There is nothing that leads me to believe they won't manhandle this Rams team by at least 17 points or more today.



All Colts teased down.



Same goes for the Patriots. They are getting a terrible Bucs team led by their head coach who resembles Gary Coleman from Different Strokes more so than a head coach in the NFL. Only difference is Mr. Drummond is nowhere in sight to help him.



I had New England 59-0 last week as a 15 dime winner, and I was impressed with how well their offense looked in the snow. For my dollar, Tom Brady and the Patriots are back.



Tease the Patriots down.



I don't see Bill Belichick taking this game lightly at all. He will do exactly what he did last week and that is win and win big. He wants his offense in rhythm, and his defense to get it going as well. I can't see how the Patriots don't win this game by 17 or more.



All Patriots teased down.



The Steelers are facing a Vikings team that has faced the Lions, Browns and Rams on the road. They should have lost to the Ravens and Niners at home, and maybe the Packers if not for 2 critical turnovers by Aaron Rodgers inside the Minnesota 20.



I see the Vikings as a 4-2 team or maybe even a 3-3 team, and when the smoke clears today, the Steelers will bring the Vikings down to earth. Simple as that. They are ripe to go down and with Winfield out for the Vikes, Big Ben will take advantage all day long.



All Steelers teased to get points.



10 DIME - CHICAGO BEARS - They are a very small dog here today but as of this writing the line is +1.



Fact of the matter is, I just don't think the this Bengals team is as good as everyone is making them out to be.



They are off 3 very emotional games with the Steelers, Ravens and Texans and now get a hungry Bears team off a tough loss to the Falcons.



Jay Cutler is looking much better running this Bears offense and as each week goes by the Bears offense is getting that much better.



Lastly, the underdog in every single Bengals game this year has covered the number and I have no problem grabbing this small dog to get it done once again.



Bears are 10 dime dog #1 today.



10 DIME - ATLANTA FALCONS -I don't care if the Cowboys are off a bye week, they are just not a good enough football team to be laying more than a field goal versus a team the caliber of the Atlanta Falcons.



The Falcons just seem to continue to find ways to win football games, and I love the way they match up across the board with this Dallas bunch.



This game will come down to which QB will be able to make plays, consistent plays and my money is on Matt Ryan.



I love the way this kid has been playing but more importantly, like the way they are calling the plays for him.



This is a game that will go down to the wire and getting 4 points is without question the way to go. I will force this Cowboy team to play 60 minutes of perfect football to cover this number.



For the most part they haven't been able to do this with any consistency and that has been their problem under Wade Phillips.



I am going to war with the Falcons plus some really nice points this afternoon in Big D.



10 DIME - MIAMI DOLPHINS - This game reminds me of the Super Bowl between the Giants and the Bills. You remember that one don't you? Norwood miss.



Funny thing is, you remember what the line was for that game? Yup, Bills -6 1/2. Hmmmm.



You remember the head coach for the Giants? Yup, Parcells, now the GM of the Dolphins.



The key to that game was time of possession. The Giants kept Jim Kelly on the sidelines holding the ball for 39 minutes and it was the key to the victory for Bill Parcells and his Giants.



Trust me, with a bye week to help his head coach prepare for this Saints offense and the gameplan will be exactly as it was against Peyton Manning and the Colts. Keep Brees sitting on the sidelines.



Give the Saints credit they are winning impressively but really against who? Nobody who will attack you in the manner in which the Dolphins will.



In my opinion the best team in the NFL is the Colts, and Miami took them to the wire, which is exactly what I feel they will do here.



And the cherry on top of the Sunday is they catch the Saints in the ultimate flat spot off the big win over the Giants.



Wouldn't suprise me if the Dolphins shocked the world and won this game outright.



10 DIME - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS - The San Diego Chargers shouldn't be laying points against anybody right now. Simple as that. They are as poorly coached as any team in the NFL.



Their offensive line is in shambles and coming off the home loss to Denver, a game they had 2 weeks to prepare for, well let's just say they are in for a long afternoon versus the Chiefs.



Kansas City just keeps getting better each week under head coach Todd Haley, who I feel will coach circles around Norv Turner today.



I used the Chiefs as a dog over the Cowboys and they didn't let me down, and I feel today they are a very live dog versus a Chargers team that just can't seem to find themselves.



Chiefs played the Chargers very tough last year losing both games by a single point and have actually covered 5 of the last 7 meetings, and 3 of the last 4 at home.



You throw in a 1-4 road chalk run for the Chargers and this adds up to another Chiefs home cover and possible outright upset.



All over Kansas City again today.



FREE SELECTION - ARIZONA CARDINALS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

Scott Spreitzer
Road Warrior Goy / San Francisco

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

Larry Ness' 25* NFL Side and Total Parlay of the Year (off 5-2 CFB week)
My 25* Side and Total Parlay of the Year is on the Dal Cowboys and Atl/Dal Over at 4:15 ET. The Cowboys have the league's second-rated offense (420.4 YPG) and third-rated rushing attack (161.0 YPG) but have averaged a rather modest 24.4 PPG (10 teams are averaging more). QB Tony Romo has received most of the blame and the Cowboys return off a bye week to host the 4-1 Falcons (last year was no fluke!). Dallas' week off was beneficial, as the Cowboys saw the other three teams in the NFC East all lose, putting the Cowboys into a second-place tie with the Eagles, 1 1/2 games behind the New Giants. The downside to Dallas' 3-2 start is the fact that all three wins have come against then-winless opponents (Tampa Bay, Carolina and Kansas City). The Cowboys needed OT in their most recent win, a 26-20 win at Kansas City (Oct 11). WR Austin Miles had a career-day in that one, catching 10 passes for a team-record 250 yards with two TDs (including the game-winner in OT). I won't give up just yet on Romo and with TE Witten (team-high 28 catches), Miles, Roy Williams and Crayton, the Cowboys' receiving corps may still develop into a potent unit. That group could have a big day against the Falcons, who placed starting CB Brian Williams on injured reserve Tuesday with a knee injury. The Dallas running game is expected to get a boost with the return of Felix Jones (212 YR / 10.1 YPC), who joins Barber (297 YR / 5.1 YPC) and Choice (225 YR / 5.1 YPC). I'm not sure there is a more versatile trio in the league. Atlanta's rush D is allowing 4.7 YPC and I expect Dallas to be able to both run and throw on the Falcons. Atlanta's running game ranked second to only the Giants in 2008 (152.7 YPG / 4.4 YPG), as Turner ran for 1,699 yards (4.5 YPC / 17 TDs). It hasn't been the same in 2009 though, averaging a modest 98.6 YPG (just 3.4 YPC), as Turner has only 353 YR (3.5 YPC), which is an average of 70.6 per game (averaged 106.2 LY!). Turner has a chest injury and has been limited in practice this week. The injury isn't expected to keep Turner out of this game but he'll have to work for yards against a Dallas defense which hasn't allowed a rushing TD or a 100-yard rusher since Week 1. Atlanta is relying more on QB Matt Ryan in 2009 and this year he not only has an excellent WR (White) but the Falcons have added future Hall-of-Fame TE Gonzalez. The Dallas pass D is vulnerable, allowing 62.8% for 251 YPG with eight TDs and just two INTs in 183 attempts (shutting down Ryan will not be easy). The good news on the Dallas side is that the pass rush, which had no sacks in its first two games, has recorded 10 in the next three. Balancing that however, is that Atlanta hasn't allowed a sack in its last four games after Matt Ryan was dropped twice in its opener. Bottom line is, I ses a high-scoring game. I do however favor the Cowboys to win, as the Falcons are in a brutal stretch. They had a Week 4 bye, then traveled cross-country to rout San Francisco 45-10, returned last Sunday night for a tough 21-14 home win over the Bears and this week are in Dallas (also must visit New Orleans next Monday night!). Meanwhile, the Cowboys are off a bye and the team has unanimously called this game. "the biggest of the season." Dallas came out of its bye week last year just 5-4 but returned to go 3-0 SU and ATS (outscored opponents 83-41). With Seattle up next at home (surely a game the team expects to win) but then road games at Philly and Green Bay to follow, the Cowboys know how important a win over the Falcons would be (Dallas would be 5-2 heading into its Philly/GB road trip). My Side and Total Parlay of the Year is a 25* on Dallas and the Over.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-NFL (4-1 or 80% in FB '09!)
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET. The last two NFC champions meet Sunday night at Giants Stadium, with the Cardinals seeking a third straight victory (now 3-2 after a 10-2 start) and the Giants still smarting more than a little from their first loss of the season in Week 6. The Giants opened the '09 season 5-0 but were blasted by Brees and the Saints in New Orleans (I had the Saints in that "Battle of New Orleans') last week to fall to 5-1. The Giants entered last week's game with the NFL's No.1 defense in YPG allowed (210.6) and were tied for second in points allowed (14.2). The pass D (despite some injuries) was allowing an almost hard to believe 105.0 YPG, as opposing QBs were completing just 52.4% with four TDs and five INTs while getting sacked 14 times. The Saints won 48-27, as Brees completed 23-of-30 passes for 369 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. However, despite that Brees onslaught, the Giants still enter this Week 7 Sunday night game at home with the NFL's top-rated D, (allowing 257.7 YPG). The pass D got battered last week but still allows just 149.0 YPG after six contests. Warner is of course still Warner, plus owns that fabulous WR trio of Boldin, Breaston and Fitzgerald. However, few would argue that Warner is still one of the NFL's least mobile QBs, which should have the Giants' DL (arguably the NFL's deepest and best) salivating. What's more, is that while the Cards made it all the way to the Super Bowl in 2008 despite an running game which was an NFL-worst with 73.6 YPG (3.5 YPC), this year's running game is even WORSE! The Cards talked about a more balanced offense this year, as they were confident that Hightower and their No. 1 pick (Ohio State's Wells) were both ready to be major contributors. However, the Cards enter this game averaging an NFL-low 57.6 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPC). We all know about Arizona's long-time troubles in the Eastern time zone and Arizona is catching the Giants in a very nasty mood on a field where wind can limit the passing game (VERY bad news for a team with no running game) and as already mentioned, that New York front-four (with all its talent and depth) can really put tons of pressure on Kurt Warner. Speaking of running the football, even with Ward gone (Bradshaw looks better) and Jacobs yet to reach his "prime form," the Giants are averaging 147.7 YPG on the ground, hardly much of a drop from LY's league-leading total of 157.4 YPG. Then there is Eli. He had QB ratings of 55.4, 75.9. 77.0 and 73.9 in his first four seasons (54.7% / 77-64 ratio) but matured quickly as an NFL quarterback in leading the Giants to a Super Bowl win after the 2007 regular season. He led the Giants to three straight road wins in the postseason and then the upset of the 18-0 Pats in the Super Bowl. He came back in 2008 with his best statistical season (60.3% / 21-10 ratio / 86.4 rating) in leading the Giants to the NFC's No. 1 seed but then played poorly in a playoff loss to the Eagles. He's been superb in 2009, completing 60.8% with an 11-3 ratio and an 102.2 QB rating. He's developed new receivers with Burress and Toomer gone, as Smith has 41 catches (4 TDs) and Manningham 20 (16.3 YPC / 4 TDs). Eli will be throwing against an Arizona team which entered last week's game in Seattle allowing the most passing yards in the NFL at 303.0 YPG (62.8% / 9-3 ratio / just eight sacks). Seattle has MAJOR issues on the OL and it showed, as Haselbeck was AWFUL (10-29 for 112 yards / 0-1 ratio / 32.5 rating!). Even with that effort, the Arizona pass D is allowing 265 YPG with nine TDs and just four INTs. The Cardinals' run defense is the best in the league, allowing an average of 59.6 YPG but one wonders if that's due partly to its sieve-like pass D getting exploited. The Cards three wins have come over the Jags, Texans and Seahawks, while they've lost to the up-and-coming 49 ers and were 'toyed' with by Peyton and the Colts. I look for Peyton's brother Eli to have similar success. The Giants gave up 34 points in the first half to the Saints last week and 493 yards for the game, their highest total allowed since the 1988 season. The vaunted pass rush produced ZERO sacks after notching 14 during the team's 5-0 start. Think the Giants will be focused for this home game on Sunday night? Now to the technical trends. The Giants are 9-1 ATS vs the very weak NFC West since 2005 while during that same time frame, "going against" the Cardinals when they were facing NFC East squads gave one a 7-3 ATS mark. That combo gives me a 16-4 (80%) trend to back up overwhelming fundamental advantages held by the Giants. Club-80 Play 20* NY Giants.

Good Luck....Larry

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error (won last time with Seattle, 41-0!)
My 15* Oddsmaker's Error is on New Orleans was just 8-8 last year but as I mentioned in the preseason, they outscored (463-393) and out-gained their opponents, not typical for a .500 team. Everyone knows about Brees, who in his first three season with the Saints averaged better than 4,600 passing yards per year (about 290 per game!) with an 88-45 ratio. He EXPLODED out of the blocks this year throwing nine TDs and two INTs in his first two games (334.5 YPG) but then didn't throw a TD or INT in his next two (181.0 YPG). Brees was "back in a groove" vs the Giants last week, going 23-of-30 for 369 yards with four TDs and no INTs in New Orleans' 48-27 win. Reggie Bush is now the team's third option at RB, as it's either Bell and Thomas or Thomas and Bell. The defense allowed 339.5 YPG and 24.6 PPG last year but those numbers are down to 301.2 YPG and 18.6 PPG in 2009. The rush D allows just 83.4 YPG (3.8 YPC) and the pass D allows 53.2% completions (tied for the lowest in the NFL), with just five TDs and 11 INTs. The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS with every win coming by at least 14 points and will take the NFL's highest-scoring offense (38.4 PPG / also No. 1 with 430 YPG) into their game at Miami. The Dolphins are just 2-3 but the team which won the AFC East last year with an 11-5 record (a year after going 1-15), has won two straight and is coming off a bye. The two wins have come with Chad Henne taking over at QB and Henne's superior arm strength (compared to Pennington), gives Miami a chance to "stretch the field" and also makes the team's running game more dangerous. Actually, how much more dangerous can it get? The Dolphins lead the NFL with 177.0 YPG on the ground (4.8 YPC), as Ronnie Brown (443 YR / 4.8 YPC / 6 TDs) teams with Ricky Williams (316 YR / 5.2 YPC). Henne has completed 70.8 percent of his passes in two starts (3 TDs / 0 INTs) with a QB rating of over 100.0. Miami's defense will be severely tested by the Saints but the rush D has been excellent 76.4 YPG (3.4 YPC) and the secondary allows just 56.3% completions. The Dolphins are catching the Saints off the HUGE Week 5 win over the previously unbeaten Giants and with a home MNF showdown on tap with the Falcons in Week 8. The Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare (think we'll see some new wrinkles of the wildcat?) and have dominated the line of scrimmage in all three home games this year. The Dolphins have averaged 213.3 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC) in their three home games, while holding their opponents to 81.7 YPG (4.2 YPC). That's a real 'recipe for winning' and getting points could turn out to be just a HUGE bonus! Oddsmaker's Error 15* Mia Dolphins.

Good Luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-25-09

Root:
10* Bengals
7* Cowboys
6* Steelers
GOM Dolphins