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double-dime bet 437 PHI -7.5 (-110) BetUs vs 438 WAS
Analysis: I looked long and hard at this game just trying to find some reason to pull the trigger on the Redskins at home catching this many points. Frankly I came up empty. I have a real difficult time getting past the fact that this team loœst at home to the Chiefs, ouch. I understand the Eagles also just laid a giant egg out in Oakland but I feel that works to my benefit here. Because of that very loss to the Raiders I expect a huge effort from Andy Reids guys in this showcase game. The Eagles are obviously a legitimate NFC contender and playing for different stakes than the Redskins who are basically a dumpster fire at this point. Fact is I do not trust that Skins offense, at all. The Redskins defense is capable and under appreciated but too much is expected as the offense just continues to sputter, drive after drive. I know the Redskins will be a trendy pick for the devoted contrarians, many of whom also liked the Rams and Bucs sunday. Sometimes you just have to take the obvious and those cases don't come along all that often but I honestly feel this is one of those instances. Maybe not to the same degree as the Colts sunday over the pathetic Rams, but still a strong play in my view. Eagles too sporadic for me to tag them a Triple Star but I feel it's a solid winner and justifies a Double Star release. I'll side with Andy Reid over the tag team combination of Jim Zorn/Sherm Lewis. Too bad because the Redskins fans are incredibly loyal and proven devoted fans, they deserve much better than Snyder provides.
Important Note: Shop for that +9 that I am seeing posted and hearing about from locals here in the Mid-Atlantic but still consider this a play at Washington +8.5. I played at +8 and again at +9 if it hits +10 I'll press it one more time. Favorites were something like 90% yesterday and the public is pounding Philly tonight losing sight of the Skins being 2-0 as a dog so far this year and one of the best NFL home dogs of all time. As much as Zorn has done wrong he beat Philly twice last year so watch out Eagles fans. I'll be at Fed Ex field tonight pulling the home team in. Best of luck.
Phoenix Coyotes vs. New York Rangers
Play: Phoenix Coyotes
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Phoenix as they face NY Rangers set to start at 7:00 EST. Phoenix is a solid 9-3 against the money line (+11.7 Units) off a home loss by 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons. AiS shows an 85% probability that the Rangers will score 2 or fewer goals. Note that in past games when Phoenix has allowed 2 or fewer goals they have produced a 59-17 record making 59.2 units and a 336-72 record making an impressive 3428 units since 1996. Take Phoenix
Everybody always talks about the buy low sell high concept with investing, and people love to relate that theory to sports betting. However, most people don’t understand what it means. They think it means just backing teams that aren’t very good, and they can’t get themselves to do this. However, that is not how you correctly the theory of buying low and selling high when it comes to sports betting. The key is to find situations where one team is being significantly mispriced based on their talent level. You don’t want to back complete dumpster fires facing good teams, but you want to look for situations where a team is capable of stepping up against a team that isn’t likely to bring a strong effort. Last week ESPN talked all week about how bad Washington is. They are not a very good football team, and they have problems that need to be resolved before they show steady improvement. However, the Redskins have routinely played up or down to their opponents over the last few years. Washington has faced several bad teams in a row, which I feel have caused the players to become lackadaisical. They have a history of playing Philadelphia and other divisional opponents very tough over the last few seasons as well. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense showed their true colors last week against Oakland. Philadelphia has always had somewhat of a sluggish offense against better defenses, as they simply can’t run the football effectively. I expect them to struggle against a Washington defense that has gone under-rated this season. The defense is the strength of the Redskins, and they completely shutdown McNabb and the Eagles in the December game last year, despite Philadelphia desperately needing that game. Philadelphia’s defense is also dealing with some injuries, which allowed lowly Oakland to put up season high offensive statistics last week. There is no doubt in my mind that Washington will bring their strongest effort of the season in this game. The players aren’t going to lay down in a nationally televised primetime game against their divisional rival, no matter how much of a dumpster fire the organization is. Much news has been made of Sherm Lewis taking over the play calling as well, but I expect this change will slightly improve the offense and get the players out of their rut. The Redskins offensive line is still not very good though, which makes me take the under also. I expect Lewis to call several short, quick passes, which won’t put too much pressure on the offensive line. Look for Washington’s defense to step up big time in this game, and the offense will play well enough to get the cover and/or win outright. The side and total are related in this game, as Washington isn’t going to be able to keep it close in a high scoring game. However, some unpredictable plays could send the game over the low total, which is why I like Washington much more.
Donovan McNabb will be at 100 percent tonight and there will be no question around Philadelphia putting up points in this one. Philadelphia is clearly the better team in this one as the NFL disparity continues tonight with a blowout in Washington. 42-17 Philadelphia.
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