10-29-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Tony George

Philadelphia vs. Yankees
Play: Over 9

Both pitchers have a ton a pressure, Pedro for his remarks to the media, and Burnett who has not pitched well, and been lit up in key spots. The Yanks bullpen show weakness in Game 1 and while the Phillies did not use their bullpen, I think the Yanks heat up the bats tonight this one scores some runs. The Phillies scored 6 runs against a better starter and a stifled bullpen last night, I think this one is more of shootout.

Play 1 Unit Over

[sobenkoma]

Re: 10-29-09

ATS lock club

3 units NC +16

[Chaseace]

Re: 10-29-09

Will you have vernon croy's picks this week by any chance? Saw you had it 2 days ago and was wondering if that was just a special occurrence.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

4 Unit Play. Take Under 9 between the Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees (Thursday @ 8pm est). Ah, Pedro. Manuel has a flare for drama starting Pedro here in Game two. Frankly, its brilliant. Pedro feeds off energy. He needs motivation and he needs excitement to really get his juices flowing. He had that against the Dodgers facing Joe Torre and pitched a brilliant game. Why can't he do it here? Pedro certainly said that he was going to bring the "fear" to the Yankee fans and believe it or not, I have come to believe Pedro as when he says he is going to bring it, he will bring it. I expect the Yankees to be fired up over the Game 1 loss, but folks, these are the Philadelphia Phillies - the World Champs - who continue to feel disrespected here. This is a team that just knows how to win from top to bottom and they have a great catcher in Ruiz who calls a helluva game. He is far, and beyond the better player than Jorge Posoda. Yes, I said it. Ruiz calls a better game, bats over .300 in the post-season and is just an all around better baserunner and fielder as well. Yes, I said it. I like Burnett to pitch well for his ballclub today as he looks to help the Yanks pull this game out and for that reason I do like the Under as I think similar to game 1, it will be a pitcher's duel. Having said that, I look for the Phillies to possibl upset here in a 3-1 or 3-2 type of ballgame and the value is nice here with the Phils on the road. The Phillies have won their last 4 World Series games and they are 5-1 in their last six road games. Note, the Under is 9-0 in the Yankees last nine when they are favored by this margin and the Under is 7-1-1 when the Yankees are favored in the playoffs by this margin - and the Under is 12-3-1 in Burnett's last 16 starts at home.

1 Unit Play. Take Philadelphia Phillies +185 over the New York Yankees (Thursday @ 8pm est).

IC

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Rose

5*NYY/Phil Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Bob Balfe
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
(All Basketball Plays are 1/3 of your average football wager)
Nuggets +8 over Trailblazers

MLB Baseball
Yankees/Phillies Over 9 Runs
Martinez/Burnett

BobBalfe.com now of Facebook! Click here

College Football
North Carolina +16 over VTech
I cant tell you why the linemakers made this game so high. I wouldn’t say its a mistake, but it certainly looks that way. UNC has struggled moving the ball on offense this year, but their offensive line is finally healthy and they do have a veteran QB in TJ Yates who has not looked great this year, but its not like they are starting a true freshman. Yates has the experience to manage a game. Both teams have great defenses and I expect this game to be a lot like the last two meetings. Look for a low scoring defensive battle. If UNC does not give VTech gift points they might be able to pull an upset. VTech should get the win, but 16 points is a lot to ask of a team coming off a tough loss now knowing their BCS dreams are over. Take UNC.

Balfe is 2-0 on the NBA season after winning with the Spurs last night. He has won 6 of his last 7 plays in NCAA football. Good luck tonight everyone.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Erin Rynning

Regular play on : under Portland

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

trace adams

1500* - North Carolina Tar Heels
I was discussing this North Carolina team with a friend of mine, and we both reached the same conclusion; they are an underachieving-piece-of-shit-team!



The key word being "underachieving".



That being the case, they definitely have enjoyed being in the underdog role under Butch Davis, as the Heels are 7-3 against the spread in that situation under Davis.



Virginia Tech has been off since they lost at Georgia Tech, so they should be rested, and raring to go. Still, I don't trust the Hokies minus this amount of points, as I have witnessed QB Taylor make some piss-poor decisions with the ball this season. Who's to say this kid doesn't give up the ball to the solid UNC defense at a key time or two in this game? I certainly think it is a possibility, and I certainly think North Carolina can stay inside of this roomy impost.



Since taking over in Chapel Hill, Butch Davis has taken Frank Beamer down to the wire in both of their meetings, as V-Tech won 17-10 in Blackburg in '07, and 20-17 at North Carolina last season. Is the 3rd time the charm for the Heels?



Well, with the points it sure will be, as Tech is just 3-8 against the spread their last 11 as a favorite.



Take the points in this one!



1500? - North Carolina Tar Heels

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Vegas Runner:

**** MLB WORLD SERIES (GM2) 4* GAME OF THE MONTH ****

BURNETT over Martinez

For starters, I did consider making this a RL Bet so that we could avoid laying the chalk...But the more work I did, the more obvious it became that the BEST BET tonight is the NYY...And I wasn't going to try and make it harder on us than it has to be...

Bottom Line...we didn't lay this kind of number all season...Because I've said it countless times that those Regular Season games just lack the significance to lay this price...But the Playoffs, and especially the WORLD SERIES...significance, importance, and motivation aren't a real concern...The stakes are high and the players almost always try to bring their A game....

So now that we know who we are betting...let me tell you why...

Historically, teams who lose GM1 at HOME...come back to Win GM2 "62%" of the time in the MLB Playoffs...and "67%" in ALL sports that have a 7-Gm Seri–es in the Post-Season...More importantly, in the WORLD SERIES...those same Home Teams win GM2 "66%" of the time...

Although that alone isn't enough reason...it is definitely a trend that has a huge sample size, and should be weighed in tonight's handicapp...

When we get more specific...and look at this particular match-up...We have a NYY team who has Won "71.2%" of their HOME GAME...Which means that you could have laid a chalk price of almost -250 when they play at Yankee Stadium, and still walked away with a Profit...So the -200 the books are asking tonight isn't that unreasonable...

More importantly, although Burnett didn't look great in his last start...which is also why we aren't being asked to lay -230, which is what I believe the "True Line" should be...Prior to that, the NYY has Won 7 of his L/9 starts...And when you look at the results of when he pitches at home, the NYY have Won "14 of 18" HOME Starts...For a Win% of over "77%"...Which would mean that you could have laid -300 on Burnett when he pitches at Yankee Stadium this season...and still be up money...

I will admit that Pedro has done an excellent job since being signed by the Phils...But bottom line is that they are 3-2 on his Road Starts...More importantly, Pedro has only lasted an average of about 5 Inn in his starts this season...And too much stock is being put in his last start vs LAA, since prior to that...he had lasted a total of "7 Inn" in his prior 2 starts...

Finally, it's no secret that I have a Future Bet worth "15 Units" on the PHILS to Win the WS which I decided not to hedge...But tonight's bet has nothing at all to do with that wager...In fact, although I do want to see the Phils win the WS...I was the first to say that if they do it won't be easy...And the reason we passed on the Hedge is because I felt there would be opportunities to do so as the series progresses...

Anyway you slice it...this is a "MUST WIN" for the Yankees...And although in sports, that has never guaranteed anything...I believe that this 2009 NYY team is too good to lie down and lose 2 straight at home...They are a veteran team who knows the stakes...Sure the pressure is on, but playing for the NYY gets you very accustomed to pressure by the time the playoffs start rolling...

This is an excellent spot to get our money down...and even at -200, I believe we are getting so much the best of it...that I am stepping out and making a 4 Unit Bet on the Yanks...Let's go ahead and lay the chalk and back Burnett for tonight's WORLD SERIES GOM...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

executive

200 phillies
200 vt

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

seabass

MLB 50* over 9


Seabass football

30* under UNC/Va Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Street Rosenthal

*200 Virginia Tech -15.5

*200 Chicago Bulls +3

*200 Portland Trail Blazers -8

*200 New York Yankees -1.5 -105

*200 Atlanta Thrashers Over 6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Kelso
CFB 25 Virginia Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

vr..??
** NBA on TNT 2* TOP PERSONAL PLAY OF THE DAY **
BODOG is using +3.5...and a couple of Locals have moved to that number also...I advise that you wait until as close to tip-off as possible because the Wiseguys already bet the BULLS when the line first went up...And with so much public money expected to keep coming in on the SAS in that final 30min befoŠre game-time...we just may see more books look to adjust and raise this line up some more...VR

and Bulls OVER 193.0 (no write up on this one so far)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-29-09

Mike Lineback

4 spurs