10-31-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

John Ryan

10* - 5 unit(s) ATS: Syracuse Orangemen +15 (-110) (Play of the Day)

Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Syracuse as they face Cincinnati set to start at High Noon. This could be one of those upset specials that no one is looking to occur. The AiS shows an 85% probability that Syracuse will lose this game by 14 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-10 for 79% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs in conference games of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. Here is a second system that has produced a mark of 37-11 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins after the first month of the season. Here is a third system that has gone 42-15 for 74% winners since 1992. Play against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points and are excellent defensive teams allowing <=16 PPG facing an average defensive team allowing 21-28 after 7+ games and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Syracuse is further supported by a series of game dependent angles. Note that they are 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992; 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game since 1992; 19-3 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games after outrushing opponent by 150 or more yards last game since 1992. If you get 6 to 1 or better on the money line it would be a smart wager to add no more than 1.5 units to this 10* Titan play. Take Syracuse.

15* - 5 unit(s) ATS: Tennessee Volunteers -6 (-110) (Game of the Year)

Ai Simulator 15* graded play on Tennessee as they face South Carolina set to start at 7:45 EST and can be seen on ESPN TV. AiS shows an 86% probability that Tennessee will win this game by 7 or more points. I had Tennessee last week as they came so ever close to defeating number 2 tanked Alabama in Tuscaloosa. I am not surprised at all that the AiS would identity this matchup as an even stronger money making opportunity. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 23-4 against the money line for 85% winners making 21.9 units since 1999. Play on a home team versus the money line that is an average passing team gaining 175-230 PYPG facing a good passing defense allowing 130-175 PYPG and after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games. Yes, this is a money line system, but the average play has been a +112.6 DOG under scoring the validity of this system. AiS shows a 96% probability that Tennessee will score 28 or more points and has a 92% probability of out gaining SC by 100 to 150 total yards. Tennessee is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when they score 28 or more points over the last 3 seasons. SC is just 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) when they are outgained by their opponents by 100-150 yards since 1992. SC also an imperfect 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992. Take the Volunteers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

C-Star Sports

5000 units Louisville -2.5 over Arkansas State
5000 units Michigan over Illinois
5000 Units Houston minus the points over Southern Mississippi
1000 units Tulane/Louisiana State over 44
50 units Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt under the total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Teddy June

20 Temple

ark st
georgia
kentucky

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Blazer

4 temple
4 utah st
4 ill
3 s miss
3 smu
3 la monroe

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Rickenbach *10* BLOWOUT *GAME OF THE MONTH* 19-7 L2YR

Guaranteed Pick: Scott Rickenbach

Game: Georgia Tech at Vanderbilt Oct 31 2009 7:30PM
Prediction: Georgia Tech
Reason: Scott Rickenbach’s College Football Game #129 - 10* (TOP PLAY) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-) @ Vanderbilt @ 7:30 PM ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

Originally as high as -14, the line on Georgia Tech fell all the way down to as low as a -10.5 in some books. We certainly understand what people are looking at. Georgia Tech is playing a non-conference game, they’re facing a team who is led by a coach who is familiar with Yellow Jackets coach Paul Johnson and his triple option, and Vanderbilt has put up some impressive defensive numbers at times this season. So, all that said, are we the ones “missing the boat” here? Absolutely not! What we’re doing is taking advantage of line value in a game that should be a total mauling. The Yellow Jackets should dominate on both sides of the ball and win this by much more than the original two touchdown margin that was being called for. That said, there is certainly value with this line having been knocked down my more than a field goal in some shops! Let’s get to it!

First off, even though this is a non-conference game, there is not going to be any backing down from the Yellow Jackets in this one. You see, they reside in SEC country…and they hate that. They know that the SEC is considered far superior to the ACC product and that fires them up. They already won at Mississippi State by 11 points earlier this month and that Bulldogs team is superior to the product that the Commodores have currently been putting on the field. Vanderbilt’s defense is not as impressive as people think (more on that in a moment) and their offense is extremely weak. Another issue facing Vandy here is that their coach Bobby Johnson – even though familiar with the option attack and coach Paul Johnson’s “style” from their days matching wits in the Southern Conference – does not necessarily have the ability to stop it. Keep in mind, Bobby’s team kept Paul’s team from batting for the national championship in the 1-AA when they were still in the Southern Conference in 2001. After that, they both moved up a level and Paul landed with Navy. His Midshipmen faced Bobby’s Commodores twice and Paul’s team won both games. Now, Paul is coaching a much more talented team that has the athletes to run the triple option attack phenomenally well. The Yellow Jackets are always threat to break off of a big run and the Commodores will get burned by big plays here.

Vanderbilt struggles in terms of time of possession. Their offense simply struggles to maintain a long drive down the field. Unlike the Commodores, the Jackets thrive on long, clock-eating drives that wear down a defense as the game goes on. Georgia Tech will simply run the ball down the throats of the Commodores all day long. As we’ve noted many times in the past, a key for us in terms of being willing to lay points is motivation. In this particular case, Georgia Tech hates the SEC bias they feel on a weekly basis as Georgia and SEC schools in neighboring states get all the hype and respect. Additionally, as if more motivation was even needed, coach Paul Johnson really has the horses now (moreso than he did with Navy) to not only beat an old rival (Bobby Johnson) once again but to beat him by an even more impressive margin. The Yellow Jackets offense is so hard to prepare for in just a weeks time and Vandy is concerned about missed assignments on defense and the big plays that can result from just not having the right personnel and tactics to defend a dangerous ground game like the Yellow Jackets possess. Vanderbilt’s defense gets a lot of positive press but their only two wins this season came against Western Carolina and Rice. Western Carolina plays in the Southern Conference and the Owls are winless on the season overall and in Conference USA action. Overall, those two teams are a combined 1-14.

Other than the two victories the Commodores have against two struggling programs, Vandy has lost all six of their other games. Four of those losses each game by 12 points and the damage could have been much worse. Plus, in their only two close losses, the Gamecocks outgained the Commodores by 158 yards and Vandy lost to an Army program that is just 3-5 on the season. Army’s other two wins came against Ball State and Eastern Michigan – teams that are a combined 1-14 on the season. Get the picture? Vandy has done nothing against a good program this season. They can’t! Their offense struggles to move the ball and the defense is not a good as their points allowed per game would lead you to believe. The Commodores were outgained by South Carolina by 158 yards, by Mississippi State by a 341-157 margin, by Georgia by 103 yards, by Mississippi by 157 yards, and by LSU by 116 yards! All these ugly results and yet Vandy is still 3-4 ATS on the season. That’s part of the reason we’re getting such line value here and it’s a big reason as to why we’re not afraid to lay the points. The Yellow Jackets won’t shy away from dominating in this one. They don’t like the SEC! Play Georgia Tech minus the points as a 10* Top Play selection

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

O.C. Dooley Guaranteed Selections
Date: Saturday, October 31, 2009
$50.00 Guaranteed: Today's late afternoon "Temple/Navy" clash may not seem all that important, but it just happens to be the most anticipated release that you will find anywhere on the word wide web on this Saturday. The reason is because I have launched only ONE top-rated "5 Unit" college football Best Bet this entire campaign (9/19) and it ended up COVERING by a massive 17-point count. In the last two-plus years 10/31/2009

TODAY’S SPECIAL “5 UNIT” BEST BET (Temple +7 at Navy in a 3:30 eastern kickoff broadcast on CBS College TV): The bottom line is that today is the biggest game that Temple has played in 30 YEARS which is the last time this school actually participated in a postseason Bowl game. With a victory this afternoon Temple (5-2) becomes Bowl eligible and very quietly the Owls have been one of college football’s great success stories. Some of you reading this analysis are aware that Temple was actually KICKED OUT of the Big East Conference due to lack of wins and paltry fan support. To make a long story short the recent move to the Mid-American Conference has completely turned the Owls fortunes around including a year ago when they recorded the most single-season victories (5) in 18 YEARS. This is actually the second consecutive campaign where the Mid-American Conference has showcased one of the nation’s biggest turnarounds. Going into 2008 Buffalo was one of the most downtrodden programs in college football history, but they ended up winning the Mid-American Conference championship and ended a 50-YEAR postseason Bowl drought. Towards the end of 2008 Buffalo and their head coach Turner Gill were actually receiving national attention which is something this year’s Temple program has NOT and I have repeatedly taken advantage. Regular clients are aware that today marks the 4th time that Temple has shown up on my Saturday premium card and they have successfully covered the spread all but once. To give you an idea just how radically improved Temple is they RANK NATIONALLY #11 in kickoff returns, #15 in rush defense, #16 in turnover margin, #31 in sacks and #33 in total defense. It comes as no personal shock that Temple’s defense is so proficient since they returned NINE starters from a year ago and have 2 seniors and a junior up front on the line. The Owls also have a senior at linebacker who collected 87 tackles last fall. Temple is definitely equipped to handle Navy’s vaunted “triple option” rushing attack which as usual is one of the best in the entire country. The problem for Navy is that starting quarterback Ricky Dobbs (knee) will MISS his second consecutive game this afternoon. That injury is devastating when you consider he is Navy’s #1 rusher this season even though operating from the quarterback slot. I will admit that Navy upset Wake Forest last week with a reserve signal caller but they attempted ZERO PASSES which is unheard of. Temple just happens to have a quarterback who has already thrown for 9 touchdown passes, but the big news is running back Bernard Pierce who has already set a school FRESHMAN RECORD with 766 yards on the ground. Here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (41-12 past ten years) that plays ON road underdogs of 3’-to-10 points like Temple with an opportunistic defense that forces on average 2’+ turnovers per game. This 77% system is completed if that road underdog is coming off consecutive contests where they committed 1-or-LESS turnovers and that just happens to be the case with the Owls who simply do not make many mistakes. My database research indicates that Temple is a dazzling 15-4 ATS long term when off consecutive games where the team committed LESS than 2 turnovers. To recap Temple has a shot today of ending a 30 YEAR Bowl drought and are facing an opponent off a game where they attempted ZERO passes. But this pick gets even better as Temple is REVENGING an overtime 33-27 loss at Navy a year ago where they blew a massive 20-point fourth quarter lead!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Chris Jordan has 3 Big Picks for today
600? UTEP - Love the Miners in this spot, as they have a solid shot at impressing a bowl committee out there with a blowout win. That's what counts these days: blowout wins over teams you're supposed to blow out.

UAB is a mistake-prone squad that generally gets rung up for penalities in the double-digit zone. And if the Blazers make too many mistakes on defense, I expect UTEP quarterback Trevor Vittatoe to explode. He is a very good quarterback, arguably one of the best in the conference.

Now is the time for him to shine, as there are five games left this season, and UTEP needs to win three of them. It's not out of the question, as the tough part of its Miners' campaign is over. They've played the likes of Kansas, Texas, Houston and Tulsa - winning the latter two - so there's no doubt they'll be up for trouncing a visiting 2-5 Blazers team that has the 115th-ranked defense in the nation.

The scoring defense gives up 33.4 points per game, which ranks 108th in the country, and on the road this team is allowing an average of 39.5 points per contest. And since this is a veteran-laden offense on UTEP's team, one that doesn't have a problem scoring well into the 30s, I like this play

600? OREGON STATE - This was the first game I bet on last Monday. The very first play I made for the week. That's how much I like the Beavers today. Actually, I think it's more so how much I dislike the Bruins.

UCLA has now lost four straight since knocking off San Diego State, Tennessee and Kansas State - two of which were inside the Rose Bowl. But since then, the Pac 10 has owned this team, and nothing changes today.

Not sure whether to blame it on a defense that can't stop the big play, or an anemic offense that ranks 102nd on the ground, 90th through the air, 106th in scoring and 109th overall. Since posting a 33-spot on SD State in the season-opener, this team hasn't been able to get past the 26-point plateau - that in a 45-26 loss to Cal.

The Bruins are averaging 16.2 points per game during this four-game skid, and they're not going to be able to compete with a team that has been quite successful through the air and can open things up at any time.

OSU has the 25th-best passing game in the nation, and will be fired up after a 42-36 loss at Southern Cal last week. The Beavers are averaging 33.5 points over their last four games, and they're just two wins shy of being bowl eligible.

Everyone knows how Mike Riley makes late-season runs, and this is about the time we see this team look as if it should have been part of the national spotlight talk at the start of the season. Big brother Oregon is embroiled with its clash with USC, so the Beavers will be looking to be the big beave in the Beaver State.

Lay the chalk

600? SAN DIEGO STATE - If there's been one handicapper this entire season who's been boasting about going against New Mexico, it's been me. I've been telling you all along how frazzled the Lobos are sans coach Rocky Long. I gave you a huge Mountain West Conference winner a few weeks back with Wyoming dismantling this team.

So why come back today? Cause Long is now with these Aztecs. He's the defensive coordinator. And you see how big of a demise the Lobos have been in this season - it's cause there is no one that knows this team better than Long.

And today, San Diego State's defense will be at its best. Long will have his troops fired up the same way he used have his Lobos prepared. How focused is the former Lobo coach? He's apparently turned down all interview requests this week.

Yeah, it's that deep. After all, Long served as the head football coach at his alma mater for 11 years before resigning last November. He produced a school-record 65 career wins and get this, he's still on New Mexico's university's system's payroll, collecting a $240,000 salary this year because of university obligations to end his contract.

But for the job he's geting paid to do, that's the sole reason I love this game so much and bet it hours after I wagered on Oregon State.

His trademark 3-3-5 defense has helped the Aztecs - who are 3-4 and have visions of getting to a bowl game - improve to 50th nationally in total defense, up from 113th out of 119 Division I-A teams last year.

Lay the chalk as the Aztecs roll to a three-touchdown winner ... at least!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

vr- 4* s.miss, 2*-wake for,vandy

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Steve Merril
PICK:New York Yankees: (-117) / 3 units
The scene changes to Philadelphia for Game 3 of the World Series tonight. The Phillies’ Cole Hamels has been a huge question mark during the playoffs, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three postseason starts. Two of those were made at home where he's given up seven runs in just 9.3 innings of work. Hamels has made two career starts against the Bronx Bombers, including getting a no-decision on May 24th this season when he gave up eight hits and two runs in six innings of work at Yankees Stadium. Mark Teixeira (5-17), Derek Jeter (4-7), Melky Cabrera (3-6) and Johnny Damon (3-5) all have good numbers versus the lefty. The Yankees are 40-19 versus left handed starters and are hitting .286 against them this season.
New York’s Andy Pettitte has been magnificent this postseason, getting two wins in three starts, and allowing just 17 hits and only five runs in 19 innings of work for a strong 2.37 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. The lefty is 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA versus Philadelphia, including a 5-4 no-decision win on May 23rd when he gave up four runs and five hits over seven innings. Jimmy Rollins (4-18), Jayson Werth (1-13), Matt Stairs (0-9), Ryan Howard (1-9), Chase Utley (1-7) all have poor numbers versus Pettitte. The Phillies have struggled against the American League this season, going just 7-13 with a .244 team batting average.

Play YANKEES (-) (action).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

vegas-runner | CFB Side Sat, 10/31/09 - 3:30 PM ?N
double-dime bet 122 Wake Forest 7.0 (-120) Bodog vs 121 Miami
Analysis:

** NCAAFB 2* "PERSONAL PLAY **

BUY the 1/2 POINT to +7...if you don't have a BODOG Acct...VR



vegas-runner | CFB Side Sat, 10/31/09 - 7:45 PM ?N
double-dime bet 186 Tennessee -6.0 (-110) Bodog vs 185 South Carolina
Analysis: ** NCAAFB 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

vegas-runner | CFB Side Sat, 10/31/09 - 7:30 PM ?N
double-dime bet 130 Vanderbilt 12.0 (-110) Bodog vs 129 Georgia Tech


vegas-runner | CFB Side Sat, 10/31/09 - 1:00 PM ?N
triple-dime bet 189 Southern Miss. 7.0 (-110) Bodog vs 190 Houston
Analysis:

**** NCAAFB CONF USA 4* GAME OF THE MONTH **** (SOUTHERN MISS +7)

BUY the 1/2 POINT up to +7...If YouÛ Don't Have a BODOG Acct...Although most Locals are using 7 due to so much HOU money coming in...Regardless, let's take it to that "Key Number" +7...VR

...analysis coming after 12pm est...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

EZ Winners

10 UAB

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Tom Stryker 5 * Play
Play is Texas A & M

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Ethan Law

S. Miss +7
Iowa st +6
UAB +7
Unlv + 35
Vandy + 12
Miss st +3.5
Under 48.5 Usc/Org

All 2% plays

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Psychic

Private Members Area

10/31

CFB

2 units Rutgers +7
2 units Duke +7
3 units Baylor +13 (best bet)
3 units Colorado +3.5 (best bet)
3 units Kansas +6.5 (best bet)
4 units Temple +7 (Major)
5 units Miami -6.5 (ACC Game of the Year)

MLB

2 units New York Yankees +115

NBA

2 units Houston Rockets +

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 10-31-09

Executive Club

400% Wisconsin