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Re: 11-2-09
ATS
4 unit over 55
ATS
4 unit over 55
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Re: 11-2-09
King Creole
Falcons/Saints Under 55.5
Yes, there's a chance that 60 or MORE points will be scored tonight in the "Big Easy" as the undefeated NEW ORLEANS SAINTS host their division rival Atlanta Falcons. Before we 'blindly' make an AUTOMATIC play on the OVER.... let's review as many different applicable situations and scenarios as possible.
With a whopping OVER / UNDER line of 55 or more points, check this out:0-5 O/U L5Y: All NFL home favs when the OU line is 52 > points.
Monday night games have also had lower-scoring tendencies with an OU line this high.1-5-1 O/U for all MONDAY games with an OU line of 48 > points.
Let's combine the high point spread with the high OU line to see what shakes out:0-7 O/U for all DIVISION home favs of 9 > points... when the OU line is 48 > points.
NFL SOUTH Division games have had very LOW-scoring results in the first half of the season:3-14-1 O/U last 7 seasons: All NFC SOUTH division games in the FIRST half of the year... when the home team is FAVORED. And if the home team is laying "Big Chalk" (Favored by -7 > points), the results have gone a PERFECT 0-6 O/U in this time span.
A recent pattern indicates a lower-than-expected outcome for teams (like the Saints) that have exploded with points in their last two games. 0-3 O/U last 3 years: All NFL teams who scored 40 or MORE points in their last 2 games.Comment
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Re: 11-2-09
From a friend of IWS
WUNDERDOG
Game: Minnesota at Los Angeles Clippers (10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: Minnesota +9 (-110)
Looking back at the database archives, I see just one incidence where a 0-4 team has been posted as more than a seven point favorite, and that team lost the game outright. I'm not sure where this line is coming from as the Clippers have not been this big of a chalk in any of the last two seasons and at 0-4, there certainly isn't justification for them to be posted this high now either. The T-Wolves certainly aren't great, but they own a win and hung to within eight points at Phoenix, so certainly they have the potential to hang inside this number against the Clippers. The T-Wolves are never given respect on the road, and the result has been a 21-7-1 ATS mark in their last 29 road games. The Clippers are not designed for chalk at home and even against lesser numbers to topple, have accumulated a 5-16 ATS mark as home chalk. I'm riding with the T-Wolves.Comment
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Re: 11-2-09
Bob Balfe
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
(All Basketball Plays are 1/3 of your average football wager)
Rockets +7.5 over Jazz
MLB Baseball
Phillies -150 over Yankees
Lee/Burnett
BobBalfe.com now of Facebook! Click here
College Football
No plays today.
NFL Football
Falcons/Saints Over 56
This is probably the highest total I have seen on MNF ever. The reason why it is so high is because the Saints are scoring 40pts almost every week. I don't see much changing tonight. Atlanta does not have the defense they once had and they have some defensive line injuries which will give Drew Brees a ton of time to do his thing. Atlanta also has a ton of play makers on offense and they will be going against a Saints team with their own defensive line issues. MNF games have been going over almost every week in the past two seasons. I know that chances are one game is bound to go Under, but when you have two offensive teams that can score from anywhere on the field it never takes long for points to start rolling up on the board. Look for both teams to be explosive on offense. Take the Over.Comment
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Re: 11-2-09
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
ATLANTA FALCONS +13.5
Are the Falcons going to win this game outright? Doubtful. The Saints proved they can come back from almost any deficit after last weeks victory over the Dolphins. However, I do believe that Atlanta can do just enough to come away with an ATS victory with the large spread they are being afforded this week.
The Falcons are eager to rebound from last Sunday’s disappointing 37-21 loss at Dallas. The Falcons can't sit back in zone defenses all day, with no pressure from the front four and will be taking a page out of the Dolphins book from a week ago; Miami was able to get some pressure on Drew Brees with an exotic blitz package and I expect the Falcons to throw something similar at him tonight.
Remember, Atlanta is 4-2 ATS its last six overall and, dating back to last season 7-3 SU its last ten.
On the other side of the field: New Orleans needed a gargantuan effort and a complete melt-down by the Dolphins to salvage last weeks win and cover; although they say they are every bit as motivated as when the season started, I believe Atlanta is more the hungry team in this situation, and look for the Saints to play with a small amount of complacency.
It's interesting to point out too that New Orleans is perfect in almost every ATS statistical category, however there is one "chink" in its seemingly impenetrable armor; over the last two years the Saints are a poor 5-6 ATS vs. division opponents.
Bottom line: The public is jumping all over the Saints and this line has continued to climb all week, turning the value on this matchup onto the visiting side. I expect Atlanta to play through some of its injuries and look for the FALCONS to improve to 4-1 ATS vs. division opponents this season! *9* Falcons.Comment
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Re: 11-2-09
Evan Altemus
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -11.5
Normally it’s never a good idea in the NFL to take favorites this high when facing decent teams. However the Saints are an exception to that rule. They are on pace to be the highest scoring team ever, averaging around what the 2007 New England Patriots were putting up on offense. While I don’t feel that New Orleans is anywhere near as good as that team, they still have one of the most potent offenses that anyone has ever seen. The difference for them this year though is on defense. Gregg Williams has done an outstanding job transforming this unit into one of the better defenses in the league. They have also managed to avoid injuries, and new addition Darren Sharper has improved the secondary. Many people think that Atlanta is a serious contender in the NFC this season, but they over-rated in my opinion. The Falcons were significantly outgained in their blowout losses to Dallas and New England, two of the better teams in the league. In addition, they were outgained by Chicago at home, yet found a way to win because of several Bears mistakes. Chicago was in position to tie that game though late in the 4th quarter, but they couldn’t score a touchdown deep inside Atlanta territory. The Falcons don’t have any wins against the better teams in the league, as their victories have come against Miami, San Francisco, Carolina, and Chicago. However, one of the biggest reasons for this selection is New Orleans home field advantage. They have arguably the strongest home field in all of football. The crowd noise will be deafening tonight, and the fast turf surface really aids the Saints pass happy offense. New Orleans had a scare last week against Miami, but they showed their true talent in the second half of that game. I look for the Saints to bring their maximum effort in this game and win by around three touchdowns.
3 UNIT SELECTION SAINTS.Comment
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Re: 11-2-09
Lenny Del Genio
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -12
A national TV appearance is not the time nor the place for the Saints first bad performance of the year (6-0 ATS), so look for them to blow out the division rival Falcons tonight. Atlanta has been a horrible road team the last two years, losing 37-21 in Dallas last week, and they are on 0-4 SU/ATS run in division road games. The Superdome is not the right place to get back on track with the Saints 8-1 ATS their last nine games here. New Orleans is 18-5 ATS its last 23 games overall and has already scored 45 or more points in four games this season. QB Brees (16 TD passes) will take advantage of a weak Atlanta secondary. New Orleans is our 20* NFC South Game of the Month.Comment
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Re: 11-2-09
Marc Lawrence
ATLANTA FALCONS +11
The Falcons invade the Superdome to meet the Saints in a key NFC South Division battle under the Monday Night lights. When Atlanta takes the field they will do so knowing they are 20-4 ATS as a visitor in this series, including 14-0 ATS in before Game Thirteen of the season when they own a win percentage of less than .700. On the flip side the Saints are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS on Monday nights when facing a .333 or greater division opponent, including 0-3 ATS when off a double-digit win. With double-digit division dogs 4-0 ATS on Monday night football when playing off a loss of 8 or more points, we'll grab the points with the Falcons. We recommend a 3-unit play on Atlanta.Comment
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Re: 11-2-09
Ron Raymond
Edmonton vs. Islanders
The Islanders are now that team on the other side of the fence! Which side am I talking about? The side the bookmakers have made them the favorites and it will be interesting to see how they handle this new role. Oilers head coach Pat Quinn must be in a nasty mood these days, he's team is 1-4 SU in their last 5 and nobody likes to be around a losing environment. Oilers gut this one out vs. a young inexperience team who's got the Favorite label hanging over their head. Take Edmonton.Comment
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