11-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[sobenkoma]

Re: 11-3-09

Karl Garrett 20 DIMER - BUFFALO BULLS....10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS 20 DIMER - BUFFALO BULLS

A pair of 3-5 teams go at it, and to me 2 factors favor Buffalo, as # 1 head coach Turner Gill rates the edge over 1st year coach Dave Clawson, and # 2 Buffalo is at home under the primetime lights for this game.

That's really it for me. Small home chalk in a "must-win" situation, and after last week's overtime loss at Western Michigan, I expect the Bulls to be right back in the saddle, and handle their business in this home date.

This is the Falcons 3rd road game in their last 4 weeks, and after winning their previous 2 in conference play, I look for them to come up a little shy tonight.

Stick with Buffalo,

10 DIMER - DENVER NUGGETS

Indiana hasn't shown much through their first 2 games, losing both by double-digits.

Denver is off to a 3-0 start, covering in 2 of the 3, and the Nuggets have covered 7 of their last 8 on the road dating back to last season.

The Nuggets are also 8-2 against the spread the last 10 times they have faced the Pacers, and with this being the start of a lengthy road swing for Denver, I expect them to beat up on a team they should beat up on.

Lay the road wood with the Nuggs.

[sobenkoma]

Re: 11-3-09

Royal Sports

10* Play-Bowling Green Falcons

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Kyle Bales
15* Suns/Heat under 216
10* Bowling Green/Buffalo Under 53.5
10* Denver Nuggets -4.5

Free: 1* Utah +5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Chris Jordan today
He has been losing everything lately...

400? BOWLING GREEN FALCONS - I'm a big fan of Turner Gill. Unfortunately this season, he just didn't have the thoroughbreds he had in 2008, and duplicating last year's magical campaign has been impossible.

Eight games into the season, the Bulls are a disappointing 3-5 and come into this one pretty dinged up to face a Bowling Green team that has won two of three and needs every win possible to have a shot at playing in a Bowl Game.

Remaining on the schedule are the Bulls tonight, Miami-Ohio (1-8), Akron (1-7) and Toledo (4-5). Tonight's game figures to be the toughest, even over Toledo since the Rockets will be visiting Bowling Green.

And the Falcons couldn't ask for a better situation than it's in at Buffalo. They bring in the fourth-ranked passing game, which averages 341.3 yards per game, and take on a team that ranks 101st in the nation with just 1.25 sacks per game and 50th-ranked pass-efficient D.

But here's the real concern: Buffalo's defensive backfield is an area injuries have hurt the team significantly. And the lack of depth in the defensive backfield is going to hurt against Bowling Green’s offense. Junior cornerback Josh Thomas is one of four defensive backs listed as out, doubtful or questionable for this tonight's game.

Senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan and senior wide receiver Freddie Barnes are a deadly combination, and make up for the putrid running game (ranked 120th) the Falcons put on the field. Barnes leads all NCAA with 99 receptions and 1,054 yards, while his nine touchdowns are tied for second in the nation.

And get this, Barnes isn't just any receiver - this kid forgot he ain't in high school any longer - he does it all. He can pass, catch, run ... he does it all. And to get this road win under the belt and move closer to the bowl eligibilty plateau, I'm banking on this kid to be the star for us tonight.

Take the road team tonight, as I wouldn't be surprised if the Falcons won this game outright.

NOTE - I noticed the line on this game has dropped off from 3-1/2 to 3, and since I know those are wise moves and not public money, I suggest you try grabbing the 1/2-point and buying the hook back onto the field-goal spread. I spoke a big game up above, and yes I do believe Bowling Green can win this outright; but that's irrelevant. The smart move is to take 3-1/2 with a road dog in conference play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Stephen Nover
Tuesday's Plays 50- Dime BOWLING GREEN

NOTE - I was hoping the Falcons and Saints would score field goals rather than touchdowns, but that wasn't the case. The combined eight touchdowns took care of my under play saddling me with a five-dime loser.

This was the highest total of the season, but it didn't matter. The Saints offense is clicking on all cylinders. From now on it's either play New Orleans over or don't get involved with the total.

I did win on my complementary play of the Sacramento Kings to defeat the Memphis Grizzlies. This was my fifth straight winning free pick selection, but I was fortunate with Sacramento prevailing in overtime.

I've won on my last four NBA plays. I have a free NBA play again today along with one of my strongest plays of the college season and easily my strongest Tuesday play of the year on the Bowling Green-Buffalo matchup.

50- Dime BOWLING GREEN - Buffalo's dream season of a year ago has become a faded memory. Multiple injuries and Mid-American Conference losses to Temple, Central Michigan and Western Michigan have zapped much of the spirit from the Bulls.

The defending MAC champion Bulls have a losing record, both straight-up and against the spread. They gave up more than 500 yards of total offense in their last game, a 34-31 overtime loss at Western Michigan.

Worse, the Bulls lost two more players. Defensive end Willie Mosely and safety Chris Storr are both out for the season after getting injured in that loss to Western Michigan. The Bulls have a cluster injury problem at several spots, including their secondary. They have only one healthy defensive back among their first and second string units.

Bowling Green is a heavy passing team with a ratio of 408 passes to 165 rushes. Tyler Sheehan is one of the top quarterbacks in the country and he has one of the best targets in Freddie Barnes, who is No. 1 in the nation in receptions (99) and yardage (1,054 yards). He's scored nine touchdowns.

No foe has stopped the Sheehan/Barnes combination yet. Buffalo isn't going to end that streak with its battered secondary.

The Bulls also have injuries in their offensive line and at running back where their two best ball carriers, Ide Nduka and Brandon Thermilus, are each questionable with ankle injuries.

Buffalo has a good passing attack, too. But the Falcons have come on defensively holding Ball State to 17 points and high-scoring Central Michigan to 24 points, nearly a touchdown below its season average.

Bowling Green has covered nine of the past 11 times it has been a road underdog. Buffalo has failed to cover the past five times it has been a home favorite. This has been a 'dog series lately with the underdog covering in each of the past four meetings.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Anthony Redd

Buffalo-5 Dimer

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Wunderdog

Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Pick: 5 units Utah Jazz +5.5

The Dallas Mavericks won impressively at LA and came back with a win over the Clippers, but they will have an angry Jazz team to deal with here, seeking redemption for a 130-101 loss at Dallas late last season. It was a game Dallas had well in hand but piled it on in the fourth quarter putting up 37 more points, and it won't go forgotten by the Jazz. Utah put a similar hurt on the Mavericks earlier in the season 115-87 but called off the dogs in the fourth where the teams finished even at 21-21, so the Jazz took it personally that the Mavs not only got redemption, but rubbed it in. I expect a full-focused effort here by the Jazz that have covered four straight off a loss going back to last year vs. a Mavs team that is just 8-21 ATS against the Northwest in their last 29. The Jazz get the call.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Stephen Nover

Phoenix at MIAMI

One the heels of an overtime winner on the Kings, we take the Under in this Interconference clash.

One of the hardest lines for the oddsmaker to make is an NBA total where there are contrasting styles. You won't have a bigger example of this than the Suns-Heat matchup.

The Suns are No. 1 offensively averaging 117.3 points. The Heat rank first in defensive field goal percentage at 38.6 percent and are tops in 3-point defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 21.6 percent from beyond the arc. Miami is yielding 87.7 points per game, the fifth-lowest in the NBA.

The situation, spot and handicap favor defense over offense in this matchup.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has always stressed defense since taking over in Miami two years ago. It's not a fluke the Heat are playing so well on defense.

Jermaine O'Neal suffered a broken nose in Miami's last game. He'll probably play but may be limited. That could open up more playing time for reserve big man Joel Anthony. O'Neal is a scorer. Anthony is a shot-blocker ranking sixth in the category despite playing just 18 minutes per game.

The Suns are running again under Alvin Gentry. Steve Nash still is highly effective. However, Amare Stoudamire isn't 100 percent yet and Leandro Barbosa has a sore wrist.

The Suns are 3-0, but their victims have been the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. These teams have a combined record of 2-9 with none expected to make the playoffs. None of the three rank among the top 13 teams in scoring defense either.

So the Suns are stepping up in class for the first time. This is the beginning of a five-game, seven-day road journey for the Suns. They will travel nearly 7,000 miles during this trip.

If the Heat were to get a big lead, Gentry very well could save his team's legs by joining the Heat in slowing the ball down while going more to his bench.

3? UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Indian Cowboy
7 Unit Play. #701. NBA GOM. Take the Washington Wizards +11.5 over the Cleveland Cavaliers (Tuesday @ 7pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Doc Sports

3U Thunder +7.5
3U Thunder game under 193.5
4U Suns game under 216.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

BALFE
Suns/Heat Under 216

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

BOWLING GREEN +3.5

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: With the combination of QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Greens' arial attack remains solid; Sheehan has completed 65 % of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 TD's and only five INT's.

Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions for 1,054 yards and nine TD's.

It's true the Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six overall, but dating back to last season they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on the road and 4-1 SU their last five vs. Buffalo.

On the other side of the field: In Buffalo’s most recent game, an overtime loss to Western Michigan on Oct. 24, Ike Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a TD and has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo’s last four games; slowing him down in the backfield will be the plan for the Falcons.

The Bulls’ defense came into their last matchup ranked 42nd nationally at 331.1 yards per game allowed but they are now ranked 60th (352.8) after Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense.

It should be noted that the secondary suffered several key injuries during that game and the only healthy cornerback from the two deep was junior Domonic Cook. Junior Josh Thomas and sophomore Joe Petit suffered concussions while senior Kendric Hawkins left with an internal injury.

Bottom line: While it’s a new coaching staff at BG, the Falcons will be looking for a measure of revenge against the Bulls, after last year's end of season fourth quarter meltdown which saw Buffalo win in double OT and then go on to win the MAC East, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl.

As the Bulls have been prone to the turnover this season (17 turnovers lost and only six gained, which is tied for 103rd nationally), I look for BOWLING GREEN to make the most of its opportunities tonight and to improve to 3-2 ATS as an "underdog" as Buffalo falls to 1-3 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS when playing the roll of favorite this season! *9* BOWLING GREEN.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Lenny Del Genio

BOWLING GREEN +3.5

The Falcons have major revenge from a 40-34 2OT loss last year to Buffalo where they blew a 27-7 4th quarter lead, enabling the Bulls to clinch the MAC East Title. Bowling Green has covered nine of its last 11 road games (8-1 ATS as an underdog) and won 7 of its last 8 November games SU. Buffalo has beaten just two FBS opponents all season and just one since the opening upset of UTEP. In fact, they have not covered as a favorite all season and just allowed 350 yards passing in their last game, a 34-31 loss to Western Michigan. For a bad and banged up Buffalo defense, the news gets worse against the Falcons passing attack of QB Sheehan and WR Barnes, the latter of whom leads the nation in receiving. The offense has thrown for 343+ yards passing in each of its last four games. Bowling Green is our 15* MAC Game of the Week.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-3-09

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Play Bowling Green (+3.5) over Buffalo

Bowling Green has covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 road games and they have also won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off a conference loss. Bowling Green has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games in the month of November and they are averaging over 315 passing yards a game this season.