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Re: 9-27-08
PPP - 5%Duke 5%W.Michigan
PPP - 5%Duke 5%W.Michigan
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Re: 9-27-08
Ness
My CFB Bailout GOW is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET. Hawaii has been to a bowl in FIVE of the last six years, including last year's momentous trip to the Sugar Bowl. Hawaii's perfect 12-0 season ended in a blowout loss to Georgia but the accomplishments of this program under June Jones cannot be denied. Jones had a storied nine-year tenure in Honolulu, taking over a program which had gone 0-12 in 1998 and leading the Rainbows to a 9-4 season in 1999, including a 23-17 Oahu Bowl win over Oregon State. The Rainbows failed to make a bowl in each of the next two years (despite a 9-3 mark in 2001) but as mentioned at the top, went 'bowling' FIVE times from '02 through '07. Jones left for SMU after last season's near-perfect year and first-time head coach Greg McMackin is left with a team hardly resembling last year's group. Record-setting QB Brennan is in the NFL with the 'Skins, while three 1,000-yard receivers (two caught over 100 balls) plus a fourth who caught 61 passes for 859 yards are all gone, as well. The defensive losses are almost a huge, as just four starters return this year, from one of the school's best units ever in '07. Hawaii opened its season at Florida (a 56-10 'disaster') and then fell behind Division I-AA Weber St the following week (at home, no less) 17-7 at the half. However, led by QB Tyler Graunke (who was not starting because of academic reasons), the Rainbows came back to win 36-17 (Graunke had three TD passes in the 2nd half). Hawaii then traveled to Corvallis and lost 45-7 to the Beavers, a loss that doesn't look as bad now, with OSU's upset of USC on 9/25. Hawaii had a much-needed week off last Saturday and should be primed for its WAC opener Saturday, against San Jose State. The Spartans head coach is Dick Tomey, who is in his 28th season. He spent the years of 1977-1986 at Hawaii where he was 63-46-3 and left as the program's all-time leader in victories before June Jones eclipsed that total. The Spartans have had a busy early schedule, as they have played every week, coming in at 2-2. SJSU's two wins are hardly much to brag about, edging UC-Davis at home 13-10 and beating 0-3 San Diego State (also at home), 35-10. SJSU has lost at Nebraska (35-12) and last week, 23-10 at Stanford. A quick check of those four games shows that the Spartans have failed to score more than 13 points in THREE of their four games in '08. SJSU really misses QB Adam Tafralis, who last year passed for 3,022 yards with 18 TDs. Cal transfer Kyle Reed has completed 79.4 percent (2 TDs / 2 INTs) this year but the team's not scoring much. RB Yonus Davis had 1,007 YR in '07 (6.8 per) but other than his 143-yard game against SDSU, he's averaged a modest 50.0 YPG in the team's other three, including a seven-carry, 26-yard game vs UC-Davis. Tomey led SJSU to a 9-4 mark in 2006, which included a bowl win over New Mexico. That year's team was 3-3 on the road but excluding that year, SJSU is just 2-25 SU on the road since 2003, including its 0-2 start in '08. Hawaii is NOT the Hawaii team of '07 (or of the past half-dozen years, for that matter), but the Rainbows have beaten the Spartans seven consecutive times, including in SJSU's last four trips to Honolulu by margins of 37, 18, nine and 24 points! CFB Bailout GOW 15* Hawaii.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-CFB (5-1 or 83.3 percent with FB Insiders in '08)-Early Sat!
My Las Vegas Insider is on Iowa at 12:00 ET. Northwestern is off to a 4-0 start but the wins have come against Syracuse, Duke and Ohio (a combined 3-8) plus Southern Illinois. It marks the first time since 1962 that the Wildcats have opened 4-0. FYI...That year's team was coached by Ara Parseghian and was ranked No. 1 in the nation at 6-0, before losing two of its final three games. Does current Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald (who is like 11 years old) remind anyone out there of Ara? Actually, Fitzgerald, was the Big 10's defensive MVP when Northwestern made it's "miracle run" to the Rose Bowl, following the 1995 season. Fitzgerald took over at Evanston in 2006, after Randy Walker's tragic death. He was 31 at the time, making him CFB's youngest head coach by FIVE years. The Wildcats went 4-8 in that '06 season and last year went 6-6, so this year's fast start is pretty impressive. However, all good things "must come to an end." Northwestern escaped with a 16-8 win over an 0-4 Ohio team last Saturday by blocking two FGs, recovering two fumbles and holding the Bobcats to four yards rushing. The Wildcats survived an offensive drought in the second half plus four INTs by CJ Bacher, as well as an injury to RB Tyrell Sutton. Northwestern rushed for minus-four yards and failed to pick up a first down with Sutton on the bench because of a leg injury. Bacher, who had INT problems last year with 19, has not thrown a TD pass in three games, since opening with three TD passes in the Wildcats 30-10 win over Syracuse on August 30. Sutton, who ran for 1,474 yards as a freshman in '05 (but has battled injuries since), is listed as probable this week but who really knows? As for Bacher, he'll have his work cut out for himself against an Iowa defense which hadn't allowed a TD until last week. After allowing only eight total points in its first three games, Iowa lost 21-20 last Saturday at Pitt. However, the Panthers only made 13 FDs while totaling a modest 259 yards. The Hawkeyes have been very strong on the defensive side of the ball thus far in '08, yielding only 255.5 total YPG and a mere 7.2 PPG. Iowa has 10 takeaways in four games and I expect Bacher to be in for a "long day." The Iowa QB position is not settled, as both Christensen (58.9 percent and a 2-1 ratio) and Stanzi (60.4 percent and a 3-2 ratio) have played, with Stanzi expected to start in this one. However, unlike in '07, RB Greene (506 yards / 6.5 YPC / 4 TDs) has given the Hawkeyes an offensive balance they lacked last year. After averaging just over 125 YPG (3.5 per) on the ground LY, Iowa is averaging 190.5 YPG (4.9 per) in '08. Ferentz saw his six-year bowl streak end in '07 with a 6-6 mark and after failing to open 4-0 in '08 because of last week's 21-20 loss at Pitt, I expect the Hawkeyes to get back on the winning track this Saturday (in a BIG way!) against a "lucky to be 4-0" Northwestern team. Las Vegas Insider on Iowa.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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