11-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Dr. Bob
2 Star Selection
**Washington 19 ATLANTA (-10.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 08-Nov-09
Washington is a better team than what is evident by their scores, as the Redskins have out-gained their opponents 5.2 yards per play to 4.7 yppl yet have been out-scored by an average score of 13.7 to 17.6 points. Being -8 in turnover margin is one of the problems and difficulty scoring in the red zone is the other major component that has kept Washington from being as good on the scoreboard as they've been the stats sheet. The turnovers are just random given that quarterback Jason Campbell has a very low career interception percentage of 2.2% and a good pass defense like Washington is likely to pick off more than just 1.5% of opponent's passes going forward. The play calling in the red zone will get better with Sherman Lewis now calling plays and the bye week will also help in regards to analyzing the problem and fixing it.

Bad teams generally perform very well after a bye week, as teams with a win percentage of less than .300 (after 3 or more games) are 69-35 ATS as an underdog or pick following their bye week. Also, underdogs of more than 6 points are 28-7 ATS after a bye if they are on a 3 game or more losing streak. So, I expect Washington to come out of their bye week with renewed enthusiasm and a better offensive game plan that should be too hard to execute against sub-par Atlanta defense that has given up 5.8 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. Washington's offense has been hurt by the injury to LT Chris Samuels, as the Redskins have given up 14 sacks in 3 games without him, and I rate the Skins at 0.6 yppl worse than average with their current personnel. Even without Samuels the Redksins are only at a 0.3 yppl disadvantage against the Falcons' defense.

Atlanta's attack rates at 0.4 yppl better than average and that unit only has a slight 0.1 yppl advantage over a solid Washington defense that's given up just 4.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.0 yppl against an average team. Taking 10 points with a good defensive team that should have decent success moving the ball is usually a recipe for success and my math model favors Atlanta by just 6 1/2 points assuming the Redskins can score at normal efficiency inside the red zone. My other model, which takes red zone efficiencies into account, favors Atlanta by only 8 1/2 points, so there is line value favoring the Redskins no matter which model I use.

The reason for this play, however, is a very negative 9-56-1 ATS subset of a 67-143-4 ATS situation that is partially based on Atlanta's loss last week and their bad defense. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS after a loss in two years under coach Smith, but that's not much of a trend and they were lucky to cover last week (thanks to an untimely injury that stopped the clock and a fumble that followed while New Orleans was trying to run out the clock). I'll take Washington in a 2-Star Best Bet at +8 points or more.

2 Star Selection
*DENVER (+3 at -120 odds) 21 Pittsburgh 16
05:30 PM Pacific, 09-Nov-09
I've won twice with Denver as 3-Star Best Bets this season, at home against New England and at San Diego, but I passed on the underrated Broncos last week because the situation was against them (although I still made them a strong opinion). I was sort of glad that Denver lost last week at Baltimore because it assured that the Broncos would remain an underrated team. That blowout loss sets up Denver in a 48-18-3 ATS home bounce-back situation that plays on mediocre or good teams after a loss of 20 points or more. I certainly don't expect Denver to play poorly at home, where visiting teams have so much trouble with the thin air at high altitude. Good teams have regularly been beaten at Mile High, including Dallas and New England as favorites this year. Denver is particularly good at home when they are considered the inferior team (i.e. favored by 2 or less or getting points). The Broncos are an incredible 33-7-2 ATS at home as a favorite of 2 or less, a pick, or an underdog since 1981 and that trend has worked for every coach that's been here. The Broncos are 19-1-1 ATS in their last 21 home games from -2 to dog, including the 2 wins this season. Pittsburgh's injured riddled defensive line rotation will have players gasping for air, as you need a deep rotation of defensive linemen in order to survive the high altitude and that is something that Pittsburgh does not have with DE Aaron Smith's backup Travis Kirschke now also out with an injury.

Not only does Denver have a great history at home against good teams but the Broncos are just as good as Pittsburgh and should be a 3 point favorite in this game. Let's take a look at the numbers. Pittsburgh has averaged 6.3 yards per play on offense against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and I rate the Steelers' attack at 1.0 yppl better than average with Rashard Mendenhall as the main ball carrier. Denver's defense is actually slightly better than Pittsburgh's offense, as the Broncos have allowed just 4.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average team, which makes that unit 1.1 yppl better than average. Denver actually played just as well as normal on defense in their 7-30 loss last week, allowing just 4.8 yppl to a Baltimore offense that would average 5.9 yppl at home against an average team. They just didn't force any turnovers for the first time all season and the offense set them up in bad field position.

Denver's offense did play poorly last week (3.5 yppl) and the offense now rates at 0.1 yppl worse than average (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. Pittsburgh's defense is good, but not great this season, as the Steeler rate at just 0.3 yppl better than average, allowing 4.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team.

Pittsburgh does have a 0.4 yppl advantage over Denver's offense and an overall advantage of 0.3 yppl over the Broncos, but Denver has a 2.5 points edge in projected turnovers with quarterback Kyle Orton still without a meaningful interception this season (his lone pick was on a Hail Mary at the end of the half against New England). Both teams are bad in special teams and my math model favors Denver by 3 points overall.

In addition to Denver's great history at home in this price range, the Broncos also apply to a 48-18-3 ATS Monday night home team angle while Pittsburgh's long tradition of failure as a road favorite the week after a victory (23-42-3 ATS since 1980) has continued under coach Mike Tomlin (1-8 ATS). I'll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars at +3 at -115 or better.

Strong Opinion
NY GIANTS (-4.5) 28 San Diego 18
01:15 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-09
New York has proven that they can dominate bad teams with dominating wins over Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland, but the Giants have not proven that they can beat a good team, as 3 consecutive losses to New Orleans, Arizona, and Philly attest. Thankfully, the Chargers are in the same category, with their wins coming against losing teams Oakland (twice), Miami, and Kansas City while going 0-3 against good teams Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver. My main math model favors New York by 3 1/2 points and my other model favors the Giants by 6 1/2 points, so a line of 4 1/2 points seems about right. The reason for liking the Giants is a very strong 63-16-5 ATS statistical match-up indicator that favors New York and a 37-93-6 ATS angle that applies to San Diego. I'll consider New York a Strong Opinion based on the technical analysis.

Strong Opinion UNDER
UNDER (43) - SEATTLE (-10.0) 23 Detroit 14
01:05 PM Pacific, 08-Nov-09
My math model favors Seattle by 12 points in this game even though Detroit's offense gets a boost with star WR Calvin Johnson coming back. The 40 passes intended for Johnson have gained 325 yards for an average of 8.1 yards per attempt. The other 3 wide receivers on the Lions have combined to average just 5.3 ypa on 84 passes thrown to them, so having Johnson back should make things easier for rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford. The Lions are still 0.5 yards per pass play worse than average in the 4 full games that Johnson has played, compared to -2.1 yppp in 3 games without him, so I don't expect the Lions to do much damage through the air against an underrated Seahawks' pass defense that has been 0.6 yppp better than average in 5 games with top CB Josh Wilson playing, which is 0.4 yppp better than their season rating. Seattle's run defense is also better than their 4.3 ypr against average suggests, as they allowed 159 yards on two runs up the middle by San Francisco's Frank Gore when nose tackle Brandon Mebane was injured in week 2. In 6 games with Mebane the Seahawks have allowed just 3.4 ypr against a slate of better than average running teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense. My math model calls for Detroit's sub-par rushing attack to gain just 69 rushing yards at 2.8 ypr in this game and for the Lions' offense to accumulate only 247 total yards at 4.0 yards per play.

Detroit has given up 6.3 yppl and 29 points per game this season while rating at 0.8 yppl worse than average defensively. However, Seattle has averaged only 4.7 yppl this season against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, so the Seahawks' offense is nearly as bad as Detroit's defense.

With just mediocre production expected from Seattle and very little offense expected from Detroit there appears to be good value on the under since the Over/Under on this game is 43 points, which is right at the league median of 43 total points. Even if Seattle's defense weren't better than their season stats suggest the total on this game should still only be 40 1/2 points, so I'll consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 41 points or higher.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Larry used the Ravens (-4) as his 25* AFC Game of the Year in Week 8 and he delivered "big-time" with a 30-7 win. It was the FIFTH consecutive Sunday in which he had won his No.1 NFL play of the weekend. Larry makes it “SIX-in-a-row” with his No. 1 NFL play for Week 9, his 25* Blowout Game of the Year on Sunday! Your move? Eli Manning and Philip Rivers meet for the first time in their NFL careers this Sunday at Giants Stadium. They will linked forever because of the 2004 draft. Manning and his representatives told San Diego not to pick him with the 2004 draft's No. 1 choice but the Chargers selected him anyway. The Giants would chose Rivers at No. 4. The two teams then swapped QBs with the Giants also sending the Chargers picks that San Diego used on Shawne Merriman and kicker Nate Kaeding. Rivers has produced the better overall numbers but of course Eli led the Giants to that Super Bowl win over then-unbeaten Patriots with Manning winning the MVP. This first-ever meeting between the two QBs comes at a major crossroads for both teams, particularly the Giants. I'll look at the Chargers first. They made the postseason last year at 8-8, when the Broncos collapsed at the end of the season. Head coach Norv Turner is always on the "hot seat," but one must admit, he has been able to advance in the postseason, something Marty could never do. The problem for San Diego this year is that the Chargers were expected to roll to the AFC west title opposed by only the Broncos (left for dead), Chiefs and Raiders. The Chiefs and Raiders are as bad as expected but the Broncos are 6-1, leaving the 4-3 Chargers facing a possible three-game deficit after eight games with a San Diego loss and Denver win this Sunday. LT looks "finished," with just 267 yards rushing (3.4 YPC) Y-T-D. He's gone a career-high 13 straight games without gaining 100 yards and the Chargers enter averaging a miniscule 74.7 YPG on the ground (only the Cards rush for less), while the team's 3.1 YPC is an NFL-low. Rivers is having another good year plus Jackson has developed in a "big-play" WR but his completion percentage is down from 65.3 LY to 59.7 and his QB rating down from 105.5 to 95.9. San Diego's rush 'D' was really hurt by the loss of NT Jamal Williams for the year and enters ranked 27th (132.1 YPG / 4.2 YPC). Merriman has never regained his previous form and the pass 'D' is more than capable of giving up big plays. Now to the Giants, who opened 5-0. Problem was, they beat the Cowboys 33-31 on the game's final play (FG), while their other four wins came over teams which are currently a combined 5-24 (.172). Have the Giants been 'exposed' the last three weeks? They've lost 48-27 at New Orleans, 24-17 at home to the Cards and 40-17 at the Eagles. They've allowed 37.3 PPG while Eli has completed 49.5% with three TDs and six INTs, after completing 64.4% witha 10-2 ratio in the 5-0 start. RB Jacobs had nine 100-yard games (out of 24) while topping 1,000 yards the last two seasons and averaging 5.0 YPC but hasn't topped 92 yards in a game this year (averages less than 70 per game), while gaining 3.9 YPC. However, that Giants running game isn't that far 'off,' as this year's team is averaging 141.8 YPG (4.4 YPC), after leading the NFL in rushing LY (157.4 YPG / 5.0 YPC). Let me also note that in the team's three-game slide, the Giants only allowed 288 yards to the Cards in that seven-point loss at home, while allowing an average of 442.0 YPG and 44.0 PPG in losses at New Orleans and Philly. At 5-3 and with the 5-2 Cowboys visiting the 5-2 Eagles, the Gains are in a "MUST-WIN" situation. A loss here and who knows where the team is headed? Does that mean the Giants have to win? Of course not but I'm not about to sell Eli or this team, short, just yet (see me after the game!). San Diego's four wins this year have come over the 2-6 Raiders (twice), the 3-4 Dolphins and the 1-6 Chiefs while they've lost to the Ravens, Steelers and Broncos (combined 15-6, .714). The dysfunctional Chargers are coming cross-country to face an embarrassed and angry Giants team which has proven in the past to play its best ball with its collective backs to the wall. NFL Blowout GOY 25* NY Giants.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

B Lang

25 DIME - SAN DIEGO CHARGERS - Love the Chargers in this spot here.

Who are the Giants to be laying more than a field goal to anybody right now?

Seriously folks, this is a team that over the last 3 weeks has gone from contender to pretender. Simple as that.

It started in New Orleans 3 weeks ago, when the Saints exposed this Giants defense to a degree we haven't seen under Tom Coughlin.

Then 2 weeks ago, Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals went into New York and exposed Giants even more in getting the outright win as a 7 point underdog.

Last week the Eagles showed what happened against New Orleans and Arizona was no accident as they embarrassed New York in a big way.

The Giants for all intents and purposes, are done.

Mark it down now. They are done and the main reason they are done is the fact they can't cover anybody.

The can't get pressure with their front four so they are having to blitz more, and if you know anything about the NFL, then you should know if you blitz in this league, the chances are you are playing man to man behind it and if those guys can't cover, you are in big trouble.

After they play the Chargers today, they play Atlanta, at Denver, Dallas and Philly. Quite frankly, I can see them losing all 4 of those games. They catch a break facing Washington after that but then they finish with Carolna and at Minnesota.

I know this might be hard to accept but 8-8 is probably reality, or even 7-9 isn't out of the question. That is how bad and overrated this team is.

At the NFL level, when you lose your defensive coordinator - as good as Spagnuola is, there is a very good chance your defense is going to struggle which is exactly what we are seeing from New York. They look lost.

Even after their implosion the last 3 weeks, the Giants are still an overvalued team. Highly overvalued, and I will gladly take the Chargers who I feel match up very well offensively against this Giants defense and will be able to have enough success to be in this game the whole way.

I will gladly take the Chargers and the points and it wouldn't suprise me in the least bit to see San Diego win this game outright.

25 dime CHARGERS

10 DIME - CAROLINA PANTHERS - Way to many points here.

I have to admit, I didn't give the Panthers a chance out in Arizona last week but let me tell you something right now, that was the way I remember the Panthers playing.

The way they ran the football and put Jake in very manageable situations, that is how this team used to win football games.

Now they are catching close to 2 touchdowns here against a division foe they are very familiar with and having gotten the money 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Watching the Monday night game and seeing the success the Falcons were having on the ground against this Saints defense, I immediately felt the Panthers would be able to do the same thing today.

Carolina will attack this game exactly the same way they did Arizona last week. Run the football. Run the football some more. Run the football until you can't run the football anymore.

Can the Panthers win this game outright? You better believe they can, and if they win the turnover battle, they just might.

But catching this many points from a Saints team that all of a sudden is overvalued.

Folks, 2 years ago the linemaker in Vegas got burned by the high scoring Patriots as they covered their 10 games to start the year and the public killed the Vegas sportsbooks right along with it.

After they blew out Buffalo on Sunday night 56-10, oddsmakers in Vegas said that's it. We are not letting this team beat us again.

The next 6 weeks of the regular season the Patriots were laying 24 at home to Philly, 20 1/2 on the road at Baltimore, 24 at home to the Jets, 24 at home to the Dolphins and 13 on the road at New York.

That gives you and idea of how the linemakers overvalued the Patriots because they weren't going to let the public make money with this team.

After the Buffalo blowout, you know what the Patriots went against the spread the rest of the year including the playoffs? 1-10 ATS.

I honestly feel we are dealing with a Saints team the linemaker has decided to do the same thing with but the only difference is they are not waiting for week 11 to jack the line up like they did with New England.

They started last week with the -11 number with Atlanta, and it continued this week with a 13 number with the Panthers.

Learned my lesson on Monday night. Simple as that.

10 dime CAROLINA

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Scott Spreitzer:

NFL Blockbuster Blowout of Year - New England

I'm laying the points with New England on Sunday. The Patriots, along with the rest of the NFL-world were introduced to Miami's "Wildcat" offense on September 21, 2008. The Pats were a 12-point home favorite and were caught off guard, losing 38-13 in one of the ugliest losses of the Belichick-era. New England also didn't have Tom Brady in uniform...he was knocked out for the season in week-one. The Patriots had no problem at all the second time against the "Wildcat," thumping Miami 48-28 two months later as a two-point favorite. This time, the Patriots are off a bye-week, while the Dolphins were in a "heater" last Sunday against the Jets. Don't expect to see a new, "cute" offense from the Fins catching the Pats by surprise. Instead, we're likely going to see a huge game from Brady and his receiving corps. After all, Randy Moss and Wes Welker are going to be defended by a pair of rookie-corners. Belichick and the Pats with a week off to prepare for rookie corners? Are you kidding me? Miami's defense ranks just 19th overall this season with a pass defense that ranks 24th, allowing over 240-yards passing per game. The Dolphins have allowed 98-points in their last three games, almost 33 ppg. And Brady has been on fire over the last five games, including a 68% completion rate. This will be Miami's fourth straight emotionally-charged, and physical match over the last five weeks. I just don't think they're up to the task. Offensively, the Dolphins are challenged. Chad Henne really struggled on the road in last week's win over the Jets. Miami scored 30-points in a five-point win, but that was the most misleading score of the season. After all, the Dolphins were out-gained, 378-104. Yes, they had just 104-yards of offense. Henne completed just 12 of 21 passes for 112-yards, and he was sacked five times. This week, they'll face the league's sixth-ranked defense overall, and fifth-ranked pass defense. Belichick is as good as it gets planning out of a bye week and you can bet he'll have several man and zone "looks" to make Henne adjust on the fly. There are huge matchup advantages for the Patriots all over the field. They also owns a few "tech" advantages. Miami enters Sunday just 4-15 ATS off an upset win over a divisional opponent. They're also 1-9 ATS off a game where they averaged 3.5 yards per play or less. This team doesn't rebound well following a poor offensive performance. Look for New England to come out focused and determined off the bye week. I'm laying the points with New England, my Blockbuster Blowout GOY. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Sunday, November 08, 2009
7*Bengals (+3) over Ravens
1:00 PM -- Paul Brown Stadium

6*Ny Giants (-4½) over Chargers
4:15 PM -- Giants Stadium

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Burns

10* NFC DIV TOY = Dall Under
10* GOM T Bay
Main Event Dall
WAC GOM San Jose St

[wayneschultz]

Re: 11-8-09

anybody seen root:

perfect play
millionaire
legend

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Spreitzer

5 titans
ko texans
tko cards
insider packers
tko nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-NFL (won L4 NFL weeks)
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. No one was quite sure how Tom Brady would respond after missing the remainder of the 2008 season after getting hurt in Week 1 vs the Chiefs. The Pats (and Brady) were 'shaky' in opening 3-2, as Brady went 23-of-47 for 216 yards with no TDs and one INT in a 16-9 loss at the Jets and 19-of-33 for 215 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in a 20-17 OT loss at Denver (Pats led 17-7 at the half but never scored again). However, the Pats come into this game having beaten the Titans 59-0 at home and the Bucs 35-7 in London. Brady has completed 78.8 percent of his passes in those two wins, throwing nine TDs and just two INTs. Many people questioned the Patriots' defense coming into this year but the Pats rank 4th in yards allowed (285.7 YPG) and 3rd in points allowed (14.0 PPG). Getting to Miami, the Dolphins went from 1-15 in 2007 to 11-5 and an AFC East title in 2008. However, they opened 0-3 in 2009, plus lost starting QB Chad Pennington for the season. Chad Henne has started the last four games, as Miami has clawed its way back with THREE wins. However, after completing 70.8 percent of his throws (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in his first two starts, Henne has completed just 52.6 percent in his last two (1 TD / 2 INTs). The Miami running game, led by Brown and Williams, is impressive. Miami comes in averaging 153.4 YPG (4.6 YPC) which ranks 3rd in the NFL but the defense is questionable. While New England's defense is allowing just 14.0 PPG, Miami's allows 25.3 PPG. Miami enters this game 3-4 only because of Ted Ginn's two 100-yard KO returns (1st time in NFL history a player has done that in the same game) and Jason Taylor's 48-yard fumble return for a TD. The Dolphins were outgained last Sunday in The Meadowlands by the Jets 378-to-104 in yards and 23-10 in FDs. However, Ginn's two return TDs and Taylor's fumble TD gave the Dolphins a 30-25 win. The Patriots will well-remember the Dolphins' 38-13 win last year in Foxboro plus one can't ignore this factoid. The Pats are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the game following their bye week (like here) since 2003, winning on average by 29.7-to-11.7 PPG. Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* NE Patriots.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-NFL (won L4 NFL weeks)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET. The Saints matched the best start in franchise history with a 35-27 home win over Atlanta on Monday night ('91 Saints also opened 7-0). However, Monday's win was the first time New Orleans failed to cover in 2009. No one can argue with the way Drew Brees has played (68.3% / 286.6 YPG / 16-6 ratio / 107.6 QB rating) or the team's running game, which is fourth in the NFL at 153.3 YPG (4.5 YPC). That being said, let's note that the Saints almost lost in Week 7 at Miami (trailed 24-3 before rallying for a 46-34 win) and in last Monday night's game, the Saints were outgained by an opponent for the first time all season. Now I don't want to make too big of a deal over the Panthers but let's not forget this team was 12-4 in 2008. It's been an awful season for QB Delhomme (an NFL-high 13 INTs with a pathetic QB rating of 59.3) but this team can run and play defense. DeAngelo Williams has topped 150 yards in TWO of Carolina's last three games, including last week's 34-21 win at Arizona where the Panthers ran for 270 yards (Cards' defense entered the game allowing an NFL-best 67.5 YPG). Carolina is averaging 148.9 YPG on the ground this season (5th-best) and 4.7 YPC. The defense ranks seventh overall, allowing 288.1 YPG. Seven straight wins is impressive but laying about two TDs to the Panthers is "too much to ask." Just look at the history between these two teams since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, creating four, four-team divisions in both the AFC and NFC. The Panthers and Saints plus the Bucs and Falcons have made up the NFC South since then. The Panthers have come to New Orleans in each of the last seven years and won, outright. For the record, the Panthers have won at New Orleans 10-6, 23-20, 32-21, 27-10, 31-21, 16-13 and 33-31. I'm taking the points! Oddsmaker's Error 15* Car Panthers.

Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 20* NFL Total of the Month (65.4% s/2003)
My 20* NFL Total of the Month is on Arz/Chi Over at 1:00 ET. This play is based on matchups and situational history. The Cards expected to have a much-improved running game this year but in fact, it's worse. The Cards ran for 73.6 YPG (3.5 YPC) last year and this year it's just 64.9 YPC (3.3 YPC). As for the Bears, they have struggled running the ball as well, averaging a modest 93.4 YPG (3.9 YPC). Considering Arizona owns one of the NFL's top rushing defenses (allowing just 96.4 YPG and only 3.8 YPC, despite allowing the Panthers to rush for 270 yards last week), I doubt the Bears will be interested in running much either. The weather is unseasonably warm in Chicago (high 60s), so I look for a 'shootout' between Cutler and Warner. The Bears are 3-0 at home in 2009 with Cutler completing 64.6 percent of his passes with four TDs and one INT (96.6 rating). Warner is coming off one of the worst games of his career (five INTs and a fumble vs the Panthers) but has been excellent on the road in 2009 (73.8 percent / 250 YPG / 5 TDs and 2 INTs / 102.0 QB rating). Taking a look at the history book and it reveals these numbers. The Cards are 48-26-1 (65.9%) to the 'over' since the beginning of the 2005 season (including LY's postseason). They are 25-11-1 (69.4%) to the over in games away from home, including two of three this year, averaging 27.3 PPG. History is also on our side in taking the Bears 'OVER' at home. Chicago's defense led them to an 11-5 season in 2005 but the Bears lost their first playoff game that postseason, 29-21 in Chicago to the Panthers. Beginning with that game, the Bears have played 30 home games, with the OVER cashing 21 of 30 times, or 70.0 percent of the time! NFL November Total of the Month 20* Arz/Chi Over.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

Root
10* perfect play
new england

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-8-09

ppp

4 gaints
3 sf, sea, wash, colts over, ne

[wayneschultz]

Re: 11-8-09

thanks guys!