11-9-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Dominic Fazzini
Monday's play 15 Dime -- BRONCOS (plus points vs. Steelers)

BRONCOS

Denver QB Kyle Orton gets absolutely no respect, much like the Broncos as a whole. Yes, he isn't flashy or possess a rocket arm, but he does do one thing as well as any pro QB: He wins.

Orton is 27-13 as a NFL starter, including 18-2 at home. This year, he is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,617 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception, a Hail Mary before halftime of Denver's game against New England that was picked off by Randy Moss of all people.

The Steelers have the league's top-ranked defense against the run, but the Broncos' running back combination of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter should be effective enough tonight to help set things up for the passing game. Plus, Pittsburgh is going to be without three starters on defense tonight.

When it comes to defense this year, however, no team is doing it better than Denver. The Broncos have the third-ranked run defense (86.1 yards per game), sixth-ranked pass defense (180.6 yards) and top-ranked overall defense for yardage and scoring (13.7 points per game allowed).

Denver is also third in the league in sacks with 23, and that doesn't bode well for Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has been sacked 20 times already this season.

Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games and as a road favorite. Denver, on the other hand, is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four as a home underdog. Take the Broncos to cover the points tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Bob Balfe 11/9

NBA Basketball
Raptors/Spurs Under 205

NFL Football
Pittsburgh/Denver Over 41
The Steelers have a major injury in each line of their defense. Kirschke is out on the D-Line. Timmons will be out at linebacker and Clark wont play at safety. Denver probably has the best group of receivers in the NFL and should be able to take advantage of the Steelers injuries. Big Ben will have his guy going on offense. Denver will be without McBean on their D-Line which should soften up a very good run defense. Both teams are excellent at stopping the run which will have both QB's throwing the ball a lot which is good for the Over. The X-Factor is Denver's Eddie Royal. If the Steelers kick it too him he could score points for Denver in just seconds. If they kick it away from him expect to see Denver with great starting field position. I do see Denver with the slight edge however the Over looks like the better wager. Let's cheer for points!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Steve Duemig

Monday's Winner
25 Dime Broncos



Yet another reverse line move in this Monday night matchup between the Steelers and the Bronco's. 68% of the public money is being bet on the Steelers, yet the line is moving down toward Denver. Wise guys have settled into Denver while the public is still doubtful that Denver is for real. The Steelers have been turning the ball over a little too much for my liking and they come into Denver with a minus turnover ratio. Denver on the other hand is not turning it over, especially Kyle Orton, who still has only one pick on the season and that was by Randy Moss on a half time Hail Mary. The Bronco's experienced secondary will play a huge part in this game as well as their pass rush against a very iffy Steeler offensive line. If they can force Big Ben to shorten his drops because of the pressure it will keep everything in front of them and will force the Steelers to play a style of offense that they are not comfortable in these days. Hard to believe that a 6-1 team playing at home is getting points in this game so we aren't gonna pass them up.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -3

I have been on the Broncos many times this year, but went against them last week vs. Baltimore; I believe Denver is a "fraud" though, and will experience a "let down" at home vs. the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers:

Pittsburgh goes for its fifth straight victory Monday night and will also be playing with some revenge on its mind as it will look to snap a three-game losing streak vs. the Broncos.

Since opening the season 1-2, the Steelers (5-2) have gone undefeated to give themselves a legitimate shot to win a third straight AFC North title, and, coming off its bye week, Pittsburgh will look to build off a 27-17 home win over Minnesota on Oct. 25.

The Steelers, who haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last 25 regular-season contests, lead the league in run defense at 76.6 yards per game.

On the other side of the field: Josh McDaniels’ team did not play well last week, dropping its first game of the season following a 6-0 start.

Denver ranks third in the NFL in rushing defense at 86.1 yards per game, but surrendered a season-high 125 to the Ravens; I believe this is a sign of things to come.

Bottom line: The Ravens manhandled Denver last week and I expect Pittsburgh, which prides itself on its dominant physicality, to exert their will on the Broncos as well; look for Rashard Mendenhall and Willie Parker to once again test Denver's now exposed defensive line. Once the running game has been established, Roethlisberger can start the arial attack and pick apart the secondary.

Pittsburgh has the better QB, the better coach, are rolling on both sides of the ball right now and want to make an example of this over-hyped team on a national stage and send a message to the rest of the league that they are the defending Champs and are still the team to beat; look for PITTSBURGH to move to a perfect 3-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

*10* STEELERS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Marc Lawrence

DENVER BRONCOS +3

The Broncos host the Steelers under the Monday Night lights knowing they are 11-4 SU and 14-3 ATS against rested AFC opposition, including 7-0 ATS when th eopponent is off a win. In addition, the Steelers are 0-4 ATS under Mike Tomlin on the non-division road off a win vs. an opponent off a loss. The clincher is the fact that Denver is 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS as a home dog with a winning record. With QB Kyle Orton 20-2 SU at home as a starter in the NFL, we'll grab the points with the Broncos. We recommend a 3-unit play on Denver.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Evan Altemus

Steelers/Broncos UNDER 40.5

Denver’s offense showed it’s weaknesses last week against an over-rated Baltimore defense. Now they have to face one of the best defenses in the NFL. Bronco’s quarterback Kyle Orton simply isn’t able to stretch the field and put fear into opposing secondaries. Head coach Josh McDaniels has been able to shield his flaws, but he wasn’t able to do that last week against the Ravens. I look for him to struggle mightily against Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers are down three players tonight on defense, but I still think they will be able to shut down Denver’s offense. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh doesn’t have a big play offense. They prefer to run the ball and use smaller passes to generated offense. In fact, several games their offense has sputtered for most of the 1st half, until they decide to finally open things up with the clock winding down. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger loves to hold onto the ball and wait for receivers to get open. However, that approach won’t work very well against a Broncos defense that has been very good at sacking the quarterback this year. Denver’s defense has also played better at home with the emotion of the crowd. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is great at developing strategies to shut down opposing offenses, and their defense has been dominant in the 2nd half. Look for this game to be a low scoring slugfest.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Tony George

DENVER BRONCOS +2.5

Pittsburgh is missing 3 starters on defense. Denver is coming off a loss and are wanting to atone for a bad defensive effort against the Ravens. Denver is 4-0 ATS their last 4 as a home dog, and the Steelers are 0-5 ATS as a road fav their last 5 games. I like Denver at home, and in general Monday Night Home dogs, especially those who are 6-1 on the year and have beaten Dallas in here. The Steelers OL is weak at best and the Denver DL is capable of a strong pass rush and the Bronco secondary is solid and picked up Ty L:aw this week as a backup. Denver has allowed only 11 ppg at home this year! The Steelers were outplayed and out stated against the Vikes who blew that game on penalties and turnovers….not sold on Pitt yet.

Play 1 Unit on Denver.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Rob Homyak

PITTSBURGH STEELERS -2.5

The Steelers have won 22 of their last 30 Monday Night games and Denver has gone 15-19 on Monday Nights during that time. The Steelers 47-27-3 ATS (55-22 SU) their last 77 Week 5 through Week 9 games. 4-0 SU the last 4 times they were coming off a bye.

The Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record and the road team has covered four of five in this series. Since he took over as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Mike Tomlin has coached his team 4 times on Monday night. He is 4-0.

Denver is just 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 at home and 7-20 ATS in its last 27 after a non-cover.

Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

3 Units on PITTSBURGH.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Steven Budin
Steven Budin-CEO
Monday's Play
NEW YORK CREW

25 DIME RELEASE

Pittsburgh


Note: With this line being a steady 3 on Pittsburgh everywhere I look, I would absolutely buy down to -2 1/2. And if you're saddled with -3 1/2 - even after shopping for the best price - go ahead and buy down the half-point to -3 on the Steelers.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Chris Jordan
Monday's winner ...


300? PITTSBURGH STEELERS - Alright, first of all, to all those who have other handicappers telling you to buy a half-point on this game, the line has been 2-1/2 since kickoff of the Cowboys-Eagles game, so I am not going to bother spending more juice ... we know the line we're looking for. Now, if your book goes back to -3, by all means ... get it back down to 2-1/2.

And here's why ...

I want you to take a look at the Broncos' 6-1 season for a moment:

They opened with a LCUKY win against Cincinnati and followed that with a pasting of the lowly Browns (heck, UNLV could challenge the Browns). Then it was a win over another hapless team, the Raiders, before Denver pulled out hard-fought wins over Dallas and New England. There was an impressive win at San Diego, I'll give them that, and then it was a bye week.

That bye week might have cost this team.

All the momentum went out the window with that bye week, while it gave Baltimore time to study and later exploit Denver's imperfections. But it revealed something else.

Go back to the list of wins by the Broncos ... the lucky win against a Cincy team that has beaten the Ravens twice and the Steelers once. Toss in the loss to the Ravens, and do you notice that Denver has had trouble scoring against physical-like AFC North teams?

This is too noticeable a problem to overlook, and with the Steelers having their bye week to prepare for Denver - not to mention dissect the game film from last week's Ravens destruction of this Broncos team - I have to believe the defending champs are treating tonight as a must-win situation on national television, and before hosting the Bengals next week.

The Steelers are simply too physical up front, and I don't trust the trio of Orton, Moreno and Buckhalter against the No. 1 rushing defense. I realize the Broncos have the No. 1 overall stop unit, but that didn't mean squat against the Ravens last week. Besides, Pittsburgh is bringing the fifth-best overall offense in the league, led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, whose 294.6 yards per game rank fourth in the league heading into tonight.

Sorry Denver fans, but you're looking at a second-straight loss before getting back to your winning ways next week in Washington. Lay the road chalk tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

A.REDD

10 Dime Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Purelock

NBA: New Orleans +1

NCAA:California -13 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

John Ryan 10*

Denver Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

tim trushel

philly / regular (nba).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-9-09

Northcoast

2* Denver

Marq Over