11-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Unlocked Sports 11/10

2* Charlotte Bobcats +4

The public is all over the Orlando Magic on this one. This team got destroyed by Oklahoma City 102-74 two days ago so there is no question that they will be fired up for this one. However, we cannot ignore the value that we are getting on the Bobcats. Charlotte is 3-0 at home this season and 5-0 ATS in its last 5 overall

The Bobcats are a much healthier team than Orlando is at the moment. More importantly, we cannot ignore Charlotte’s statistics at home in this early season. They are outscoring their opponents by an average margin of 11 points per game and opponents are hitting only 22.6% of their 3 point attempts. The trends also tell the story in this one. Charlotte is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 home contests. Orlando is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 contests after scoring less than 75 points in its previous contests. Orlando is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 meetings in Charlotte and the home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Lay the number on Charlotte.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

ATS Lock

3unit ohio+1-

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections*
NCAA Football
3 (***) Ohio +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Spartan
Miami Heat -6.5
I had a solid winner last week when I sided with the Heat when meeting the Wizards in Washington and I will gladly support them in the quick rematch back at home. As we have all seen in the early going a massive difference between the playoff caliber clubs and the pretenders lies in the ability to finish ball games. You will see many, many nights where lesser teams compete for 90% of the game and then fade down the stretch like a Clydesdale in the derby. Let's examine this game a moment, the Wizards have been bad on the road guys thus far this year losing by 11, 11, 12 and 16 points. Now they venture into Miami to meet a Heat team which is 5-1 and playing very solid ball. The Heat have dropped one game at home but prevailed in the other three by 22, 8 and 8. Actually they knocked off a very solid Nuggets team by 8 points and surely the Denver squad is far superior to this Wizards bunch. Dwayne Wade is on top of his game right now and playing as well as he ever has. We all know the NBA early on can be a strange animal but I love the Heat here giving only the 6.5. I look for the game to be close most of the way and for the Heat to put the Wizards away in the 4th quarter to clear the number for us.Take Miami.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* W is eg uy O hio/Buf falo ESPN 2 "S id e" S ur ef ir e on Buffalo -1

When looking at the numbers, Buffalo is the better team despite having the worse record. The odds makers realize it and that's why they have listed the Bulls as the favorite, and for good reason. Scoring-wise they are pretty identical with Ohio averaging 24.4 points/game and Buffalo averaging 23.8 points/game. But when you look at total yards, it's clear that the Bulls have the better offense. Buffalo puts up 411 total yards/game this season compared to Ohio's 315 total yards/game. Defensively, the Bobcats have a slight edge, allowing 333 yards/game while Buffalo yields 354 yards/game. There is no question that Buffalo has played the tougher schedule thus far with games against Pittsburgh, Temple and Central Michigan. Ohio has been terrible in their last 2 games, trying to choke away their season. They lost at home to Kent State 11-20 and followed that up with a 20-17 road win at Ball State, who are just 1-8 this season. Buffalo is the better team and it will show on the field Tuesday night. Buffalo is 2-0 in their last 2 meetings with Ohio, winning 31-10 at home in 2007 and 32-19 on the road in 2008. The Bobcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Bulls are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. Ohio is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The Bobcats are getting sloppy, committing 5 turnovers in their last 2 games. Buffalo is taking care of the ball lately, committing just 4 turnovers in their last 4 games. Take Buffalo and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W id ow W is eg uy N B A N on-Con fer ence K NO CKO UT on Denver Nuggets -2(-110 at bodog)

Off 2 straight losses, look for Denver to come out playing inspired basketball tonight in Chicago. The Bulls have won 3 straight, but all 3 wins have come by 3 points or less and only 1 was of any significance. They did beat Cleveland on the road by 1, but the Bulls only beat the Bucks at home by 2 and the Bobcats at home by 3. Denver is a better than Cleveland, and tonight they will be on top of their game as they avoid losing 3 straight. The Bulls are 17-34 ATS (-20.4 Units) off a home win over the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. The Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games, failing to cover the spread 86% of the time. The Nuggets are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games. Take the Nuggets and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Bob Balfe

OHIO +1.5

When rating these teams the offense get a tie, but on defense Ohio is a lot better and are a lot healthier. Every defensive back is nursing and injury on Buffalo and to make things worst the suspended their QB for the first quarter of tonight's game and they will be without their top running back for the entire game. Now I give the advantage on offense, defense and special teams to Ohio. The Bobcats are also playing for a MAC Title while Buffalo has to win out just to get bowl eligible. Ohio is a better team playing for bigger cause. Take Ohio.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS -5.5

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors:

With Iverson likely out, Memphis tries to avoid losing its sixth consecutive game when it hosts a Trail Blazers team looking to win its third straight with a new lineup.

Portland (4-3), which is opening a five-game road trip, has won two in a row since switching to a three-guard lineup featuring Brandon Roy, Andre Miller and Steve Blake. The Blazers defeated San Antonio 96-84 on Friday and beat Minnesota 116-93 on Sunday and I expect them to carry that momentum into this evenings game.

Coach Nate McMillan’s new offense looks to continue its production against a Memphis team allowing an average of 120.0 points on 51.6 % shooting during its skid.

Keep in mind that dating back to last season Portland is 12-6 ATS its last 18 and 5-2 ATS its last seven on the road.

On the other side of the court: The Grizzlies, who haven’t won since beating Toronto on Oct. 30, have lost seven straight to the Trail Blazers since a 96-92 victory March 29, 2007.

The Grizzlies are really struggling right now on the court, and will now also have to deal with Allen Iverson's "off-court" antics as he's taken an indefinite leave of absence to deal with "personal matters", and there are now rumors coming out of Memphis that he is planning to retire.

Dating back to last season Memphis is a horrible 3-6-1 ATS in its last ten games overall and is just 8-16 SU its last 24 at home.

Bottom line: No need to over-analyze this one. Look for McMillan to have his guys ready to take advantage of this team in disarray; play on PORTLAND!

*9* BLAZERS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Rocketman

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +4

Charlotte has cashed five of their first six games ATS this year. Charlotte is a perfect 3-0 SU at home this year. Charlotte is allowing only 83.7 points per game at home this year. Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Magic are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game. Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. Bobcats are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 games following a ATS win. Bobcats are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 home games. Bobcats are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bobcats are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Southeast. Home team is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Magic are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Charlotte. We'll play Charlotte for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Spartan 11/10

Spartan
Miami Heat -6.5
I had a solid winner last week when I sided with the Heat when meeting the Wizards in Washington and I will gladly support them in the quick rematch back at home. As we have all seen in the early going a massive difference between the playoff caliber clubs and the pretenders lies in the ability to finish ball games. You will see many, many nights where lesser teams compete for 90% of the game and then fade down the stretch like a Clydesdale in the derby. Let's examine this game a moment, the Wizards have been bad on the road guys thus far this year losing by 11, 11, 12 and 16 points. Now they venture into Miami to meet a Heat team which is 5-1 and playing very solid ball. The Heat have dropped one game at home but prevailed in the other three by 22, 8 and 8. Actually they knocked off a very solid Nuggets team by 8 points and surely the Denver squad is far superior to this Wizards bunch. Dwayne Wade is on top of his game right now and playing as well as he ever has. We all know the NBA early on can be a strange animal but I love the Heat here giving only the 6.5. I look for the game to be close most of the way and for the Heat to put the Wizards away in the 4th quarter to clear the number for us.Take Miami.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Lenny Del Genio

Wizards/Heat OVER 188.5

Lenny spent years working on an NBA "totals system" and began using it in January '07 on the net, with great success. It's based on numerous factors, some of them listed here. Anticipated pace and style of both teams' play. Days of rest for teams or lack of it. Number of points scored by starters as compared to subs in recent outings (plus season-long averages). It also factors in point and rebounding differentials of the two teams. With all these factors (and many more), it's not possible to provide Lenny's "typical analysis" with his NBA totals selections. However, after last year's success, he anticipates another banner year. Play are rated 10* (Game of Day), 15* (Game of Week), 20* (Game of Month) and some rare 25* plays. Good luck. Over Washington/Miami is our 20* Southeast Division Total of the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Tony George

BUFFALO -1.5

The W-L record is deceiving for the Bulls and Turner Gill. They are about 5 or 6 plays away from being a 2 loss ballclub, including last week’s debacle against Bowling Green. Although starting QB Maynard is suspended for the first quarter, I look for the better offense to win game, and since Ohio U is ranked `105th in the NCAA, I like Buffalo at home to get it done. Buffalo has dominated Ohio the past 2 years by double digits.

Play 1 Unit on Buffalo.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

Evan Altemus

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS +3.5

This game is a great match-up and situation for Charlotte. Orlando is a pure jump shooting team with not much defense. They will struggle against good defensive teams on the road until they change their style of play. Charlotte has one of the best defenses in the league, but their offense struggles at times. However, the Bobcats are a very good home team, evident by their dominant home wins over Atlanta and New Jersey over the last week. The Magic are also banged up coming into this game and won’t have Vince Carter, Ryan Anderson, or Rashard Lewis in this game. Lewis is still serving a suspension and won’t return for a few more games.

3 UNIT SELECTION BOBCATS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Blazers/Grizzlies OVER 201.5(-102 at 5dimes)

Memphis is scoring 105.9 points/game this season. They have played 7 games, and they are 1-6 through those 7 contests. That's not a record you would expect for a team who is scoring 106 points/game. Their problem has been on the defensive side, where Memphis is allowing 114.7 points/game this season. The Grizzlies are going to play in shootouts all season because of their style of play. That's why this total has been set too low tonight as they host the Portland Trail Blazers, who should put up another big number on the Grizzlies. The OVER is 5-1 in the Grizzlies' last 6 games overall. The OVER is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. We look for both teams to top the 100-point mark tonight. Take the OVER 201.5 points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-10-09

K B H o o p s
5* Charlotte +4.5 * *P O D* *
4* Chicago +2.5
3* Oklahoma City ML -115