11-12-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Lenny Del Genio

BALL STATE +17.5

Northern Illinois has posted some big wins this season, including 50-6 over Eastern Michigan last week, but this line is inflated. The Huskies have a very one dimensional offense (230 RYPG, 135 PYPG) making them not likely to consistently cover spreads such as this one. Ball State has gone 8-1 ATS as a road underdog the past three seasons (3-0 ATS this year) and while perhaps no team in the country has fallen farther from last year, it is worth noting that the Cardinals have won their last two trips to DeKalb and LY totally dominated NIU 45-14 while forcing seven three and outs and holding a 529-275 edge in total yards. Note that Ball State has played much better the last two weeks, recording their first win of the season, 29-27 over Eastern Michigan and then sticking with MAC East contender Ohio in a 20-17 loss. Five of their eight losses this year have come by a touchdown or less and only one has been by more than two touchdowns. Ball State is our 15* MAC Oddsmaker Mismatch.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Booooj

Bears ---- 49ers game only

10* bears
10* over
5* parlay

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Spartan 11/12

Spartan

Cleveland vs. Miami

I've been riding the Miami Heat some lately and after looking at this game am prepared to line up with them here tonight in this big TNT battle with LeBron and the Cavaliers. I've got news for you, it is not just about Dwayne Wade with this bunch. Quentin Richardson is performing well and the bench has been strong. Heat are playing solid ball on both ends of the floor. Should be a great game here but I'll back Miami once again to get the job done for us.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Craig Davis 11/12

Thursday's Lineup

40 Dime --- 49ers FIRST HALF

20 Dime --- 49ers GAME (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is -3 or -3 1/2)

10 Dime --- Bowling Green-Miami (OH) OVER

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (FIRST HALF ONLY) --- Okay, for starters, I realize it's not easy to look at these two teams initially and find many positives right now. Both defenses are not playing as well as they did early in the season while both offenses are turning the ball over way too many times. But one thing stands out to me like a sore thumb, and I simply can't ignore it. The Bears absolutely SUCK in the first half. Over their last two games (and no, I'm not counting the game vs. the Browns since they aren't a real team), the Bears have faced the Cardinals and Bengals. Each team had five possessions in the first half. 8 touchdowns, 2 field goals, no punts. Did you hear me? No punts. Both the Cards and Bengals marched up and down the field on every possession in the first half, scoring at will, and rarely even going to third down. The biggest problem for this Bears' defense is the lack of linebackers, with both Brian Urlacher and Pisa Tiniosomoa on the shelf for the season. The secondary has been torched every week and DT Tommie Harris apparently cares more about punching opposing offensive linemen than he does tackling ball carriers and sacking the QB. Dude has some rage issues that take his mind off the task at hand, and that's a big part of the reason he's been so unsuccessful this season.

Doing further research on the Bears in the first half of games this year (again, I don't count the Cleveland game), I found that they have NEVER had the lead. Twice they went to the locker room tied (vs. Pittsburgh, 7-7, covering by a mere point and 21-21 with Detroit as a 5-point favorite). In every other game the Bears went to halftime trailing (including the Cincy and Arizona games, as previously mentioned)... 10-2 deficit at Green Bay (ATS loss), 13-7 deficit at Seattle (ATS loss), and a 14-7 deficit at Atlanta (ATS loss). This team has played 8 games so far this year, and they've gone to the locker room trailing or tied in every one of them. That's a 2-6 ATS halftime record this season, and one of those ATS wins was at home vs. Cleveland and the other was that 7-7 Pittsburgh halftime time as they were getting a point-and-a-half (before the Steelers really found their groove).

Bottom line: The Bears have proven, time and time again, they just don't come out of the locker room with any intensity... especially on the road (0-4 ATS). San Francisco, on the other hand, led Tennessee 17-10 at the half of last week's 34-27 loss to Tennessee, covering the 2-point first half line. The week before the Niners led the Colts 14-9 at the break as 7-point first half dogs. How about a 7-0 halftime lead over St. Louis as a four-point favorite... or a 14-13 lead at halftime over Minnesota getting 4 points in the first half. Or the 13-10 halftime lead over Seattle as a pick 'em. Or a 13-6 lead in Arizona getting three-and-a-half. Only twice have the Niners not covered the halftime line this season (6-2 ATS in the first half). So, to sum it up, the Niners are 6-2 ATS in the first half while the Bears are 2-6 ATS in the first 30 minutes... that's a 12-4 ATS trend in our favor. I expect the Niners to have at least a seven-point lead as the two teams head to the break, and all we're being asked to give is a point-and-a-half.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS GAME (be sure to buy the half point if your line is -3 or -3 1/2) --- As a continuation of my previous analysis, I not only expect the Niners to dominate the first half, I expect them to win this game outright. HC Mike Singletary would love nothing more than to exact revenge on the team he played with for so many years as an All Pro LB. The key for tonight's victory relies heavily on the running attack of Frank Gore vs. the Chicago linebackers. As I mentioned, Chicago has lost Urlacher and Tiniosomoa for the season, leaving a rather large void in the linebacking corps. If Gore can get going early, it will open things up for Vernon Davis over the middle and Michael Crabtree on the outside. It's also a bonus for the Niners that they can use Gore in the passing game, because you know Lovie Smith is going to bring constant pressure in an attempt to disrupt the timing of shaky starting QB Alex Smith. Let's also keep in mind that Smith was in a run-happy offense when he played for Urban Meyer at Utah, so it's not like he's averse to tucking it away and running when things break down.

The Niners rank 5th in the NFL against the run, meaning this offense is going to rely heavily upon QB Jay Cutler and his receivers. Since he's thrown 12 INTs already on the season, this plays right into the hands of the Niners' DBs. Matt Forte just isn't getting the job done in the backfield, meaning Chicago will either abandon the run altogether or put in some special plays to get the ball in his hand. Either way, this game means more to San Francisco if they want to get back in the NFC West race. The Niners are a very good ATS team under Singletary, covering 8 of the last 13 times they've stepped on the field (two pushes) and they've covered 4 of their last 6 at home. I believe San Francisco not only wins this game, but I believe they win it comfortably.

MIAMI, OHIO/BOWLING GREEN OVER --- One thing I've learned from capping the MAC... things don't always turn out as they seem. Teams that have no business staying within two touchdowns of their opponent end up either winning outright, or keeping the game close enough to stay within the number. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but then again, I'm not sure it's supposed to. What finally did it for me was watching this same Miami, Oh. team nearly upset Temple last week as a double-digit dog. Miami had absolutely no business scoring 32 points on Temple, but a closer look at the numbers found that Temple's lone weakness on defense was vs. the pass... and sure enough, Miami exploited it. Since they realized early on that Temple was stopping their run game (22 carries for 52 yards), they looked to veteran QB Zack Dysert to lead them back from a 21-3 deficit. He did. Dysert completed 31 of 51 passes for 426 yards and three TDs, giving Miami a 32-31 lead late in the game. Miami has scored nearly 30 PPG over their last three, now that they've realized Dysert is more than capable of leading this team on quick scoring drives down the field. Tonight, they get back into the 30s again.

As for Bowling Green, they're coming off a game in which they also scored 30 points... a 30-29 win over Buffalo last week. Much like Miami, the Falcons trailed by double digits in that game (29-16) and had to rally via the pass to pull off the win (or in Miami's case, at least grab the lead). A big reason for the sudden outpouring of points... QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes. Sheehan was 22 of 40 for 313 yards and a TD because they couldn't run the ball. Like Miami, Bowling Green had just 50 yards rushing that game but still managed 30 points. Bowling Green can score with the best of them when this passing game's clicking, and with a bowl berth on the line, you can bet it'll be clicking tonight.

Both Miami and Bowling Green rush for less than 70 yards per game and throw it for 275 or more, which tells me three things. First, both of these teams have the ability to score quickly because not only do they throw the ball, they throw it downfield and have the capability to cash in on long pass plays. Second, in throwing the ball so much, there are going to be at least 30-40 incomplete passes... and incomplete passes stop the clock. Running teams tend to grind out the clock, passing teams keep it alive. Third, passing teams also have the propensity to get picked off, and an interception is easily able to be returned for a TD... seven more points in our favor in a matter of seconds. So as you can see, this is going to be a long, high-scoring game that goes easily over 57 points.

FREE PLAY OHIO STATE COLLEGE HOOPS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

North Coast:

Marquee S.F.
Top Opinion B.G over, Top Opinion Rutgers.
Regular Opinions: Miami Oh., Ball St, And Ball St. under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
3 unit teaser on chi+9.5 and the over 37
3 units on the under 46.5 n.ill ball st gm

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Dime Sports

www.5dimesports.com

3.5 DIME PLAY

Cleveland @ Miami

8:00pm Tonight

3.5 Dime Play Take Miami -1 Ok, the biggest reason I like Miami here is because they are in the same situation that Cleveland was in last night. Not the fact that they need to prove they are a good team, but the fact they are playing a team who just played late last night, 2nd game on the road in a row, and the line has moved complete reversal against the public as it was last night. I could have made this a 4 Dime play easy, but the Cav's did play well last night.

Trends I Like

Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central.
Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Dominic Fazzini 11/12

15 Dime - San Fran 49ers minus the points

5 Dime - Phoenix Suns plus the points

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Billy coleman
3* senators/flyers over
from the nc line

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

The Greatest

5* S Fla
3* San Fran

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Kelso FB

10 units San Fran
10 units South Flor

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Rocketman NHL4* 11/12

Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units! NHL Dallas @ San Jose 10:35 PM EST Play On: 4* Dallas +165 Dallas always seems to step it up a notch against teams with a winning record. Dallas is 25-18 SU and ATS at San Jose since 1996 including 6-4 SU and ATS at San Jose last 3 years. Dallas won the last meeting in San Jose 4-1 back in March of this year. Sharks are 7-23 in their last 30 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Sharks are 1-7 in their last 8 Thursday games. Stars are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Jose. Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. We'll play Dallas for 4 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Date: Thursday, November 12, 2009
$35.00 Guaranteed: The Hitman wants to WHACK your man good today with his BIG EAST COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR! That is correct you can get the Hitman's BIG MONEY BIG EAST CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR for just $35 and you MUST WIN THIS GAME OR YOU WILL NOT BE CHARGED! We are in the WINNING ZONE as we are 34-5 with all of our guaranteed selections! This baby will WIN and WIN BIG! 11/12/2009

BIG MONEY BIG EAST CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR
112 Rutgers -2 7:45 EST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

lenny stevens
10 * Bears
10* Rutgers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Vegas Runner
105 CHI / 106 SFX UNDER 43.5 Bodog
Analysis:
*** NFL 2* "PRIME-TIME" PLAY OF THE DAY* ** (Possible 3* Upgrade)

BODOG is using 44...Which definitely Adds even MORE VALUE to this Bet...Since 44 is one of the "Key Totals"...If you have*a Bo¨dog Acct, go ahead and BET IT NOW...That's what I just did for myself and the fund I manage, because I don't think it will get any higher...even though the Books say that the Betting Public is on the other side...Reason being, the Wiseguys that I spoke with are looking at the same UNDER BET that we are making for a possible "Buy-Order"...