11-12-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Brandon Lang Thursday's Selections ...


15 DIME - MIAMI-OHIO REDHAWKS


5 DIME - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS


FREE SELECTION - SOUTH FLORIDA


15 DIME - MIAMI-OHIO REDHAWKS -Let me get this straight.

You are 9-1 SU the last 10 in the series and you are getting 3 1/2 points at home tonight and the underdog has won the last 4 between these rivals? That is good enough for me.

This is a Redhawks team that played two teams currently in the top 10 early in the year with Boise State and Cincinnati, took their lumps early and are a better team right now because of it.

Over the last 5 weeks they stepped up and been competitive in every single game, picking up their first win of the year along the way.

Let's start with the 16-6 loss at Northwestern, the same Northwestern team that just knocked off undefeated Iowa. If that is not convincing enough, let's look at their last 4 games.

Against 3 of the best teams in the league; Ohio, Temple and Northern Illinois, only the Ohio game on the road got out of hand courtesy of 4 Miami-Ohio turnovers. No shame in that seeing as Ohio leads the country in forcing turnovers.

At home to Northern Illnois and at Temple, they were in both games down to the wire, losing 27-22 to NIU, and a heartbreaking 34-32 loss at Temple.

Folks, Northern Illinois will be facing Central Michigan at the end of the year for one half of the MAC crown while Ohio will be battling Temple for the other half to see who faces off in the MAC Championship.

Miami/Ohio is playing their best ball of the entire year right now facing their rival at home getting 3 points.

I am not taking anything away from Bowling Green. They have a great passing attack and Freddie Barnes is a game-changer, but the fact of the matter is I don't think Bowling Green should be laying points to anybody right now.

Miami/Ohio has nothing to lose and playing with a whole lot of confidence and I will roll with them tonight.

5 DIME - SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS - (if 3 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 3. Never get beat by the hook.) - I just don't trust Jay Cutler on the road against anybody right now.

When you are a QB in the NFL and you have no running game to compliment your passing attack, let's just say you are a lamb being led to the slaughter.

That is the problem facing the Bears right now.

You examine the Niners and you will see a 4 game losing streak, but if you look closer you will see losses to Atlanta, Houston, Indy and Arizona.

No shame in that as you might end up seeing all 4 of those teams playing in January. At least 3 for sure with the Texans having an outside shot.

I know the whole world will be on the Niners here but they are without question the right side of this game.

Another huge problem facing the Bears tonight is they can't stop the run, and if you can't stop the run in the NFL, you are not going to win football games. PERIOD.

All the advantages are with the Niners here who I feel are better coached, better running game and a better defense.

I will make the Bears on a short week travel out west and play error free football. I don't think they can and I am pretty darn confident Cutler will figure out a way to implode.

San Francisco is the play.

FREE SELECTION - SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Ben Burns 11/12

**75% YTD** Thurs. TOTAL ROAST! (3:00 PST)

Game: Ball St. vs. Northern Illinois
Pick: UNDER 46.5,NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES -vs-Ball State Cardinals

Reason: I'm playing on Ball State and Northern Illinois to finish UNDER the total. The Huskies won big last week. That game saw the final score of 50-6 finish well above the posted total. While that result has helped to keep today's number relatively high, I'm expecting the Huskies to score significantly fewer points and for a much lower final combined score overall. Prior to last week's offensive explosion, the Huskies had scored 27 or less in three straight games and they'd seen three of their previous four games finish below the total. All four of those games finished with less than 50 combined points. Including last week, the Huskies are allowing an average of only 12 points over their last five games and an average of only 6.33 points over their last three home games. They play tough defense and like to pound the ball on the ground. While that led to an 'over' last week, that type of playing style has seen the Huskies go a profitable 41-21 to the UNDER their last 62 games with a total, excluding 'pushes.' Ball State had a great team last year and scored a lot of points. Indeed, the Cardinals started the season with a perfect 12-0 record (finished 12-2) and they averaged a whopping 34.9 points per game. This year's team lost its QB, three of its top four receivers and four starters along the offensive line. Not surprisingly, points have been a lot harder to come by. In fact, the Cardinals are averaging only 20.6 per game, a very significant dropoff. The Cardinals did return seven defensive starters though. While the defense hasn't been great - it hasn't been completely terrible either. Last time out, the Cardinals lost 20-17. It was the fourth straight game that they allowed 31 points or less. Three of those four games finished below the total with all three of those games finishing with 48 points or less. Like the Huskies, the Cardinals will be running the ball frequently, which should help to keep the clock moving. I expect them to find the going pretty tough though and look for the UNDER to improve to 6-1 the last seven times that the Huskies played a home game with a total in the 42.5 to 49 range. *7 Roast

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

WAYNE ROOT

2009 Football Upset Club

Thursday, November 12, 2009
4*Rutgers (-2½) over So Florida

7:30 PM -- Rutgers Stadium

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-12-09

Larry Ness 20* CFB Game: Bowling Green - 3

Reason: When Bowling Green lost 44-37 at home to Ohio U on Oct 3, the Falcons stood at just 1-4. However, they have rebounded by playing well on the road (more on that later). The Falcons folowed the loss to Ohio by winning 36-35 at Kent St and then 37-17 at Ball St. BGSU lost at home to Central Michigan on Oct 24 but then won a week ago Tuesday at Buffalo, 30-29. The Falcons are back on the road Thursday night (4th road game in 34 days), visiting Miami-Ohio in Oxford. The RedHawks opened the 2009 season by losing their first eight games but ended a two-year 13-game losing streak with a 31-24 home win over Toledo on Oct 31. The winning didn't last long, as Miami lost 34-32 last Thursday night at Temple, when the Owls kicked an 18-yard FG with just three seconds remaining. Losing MAC games is something Miami has grown accustomed these last two years, as since the beginning of the 2008 season the RedHawks have dropped 12 of their last 14 conference games. However, the Redhawks are a more respectable 6-8 ATS in those games, including three straight 'covers' in MAC play. In fact, Miami's covered FIVE of its last six games overall in 2009, due in no small part to the ever-improving play of redshirt freshman QB Zac Dysert, who has completed 64.0 percent of his passes while averaging 372.7 YPG with seven TDs and just one INT over his last three games. However, while Miami has covered five of six, the Redhawks have one just ONE of those games and let me remind all that the RedHawks trailed Temple 31-13 last Thursday into the fourth quarter, before their furious rally. As well as Dysart has played, he'll only be the second-best QB on the field on Thursday night. Despite working with the nation's most pathetic rushing attack (60.1 YPG / 2.2 YPC), Tyler Sheehan is completing 64.1 percent of his passes while averaging over 330 yards YPG through the air with 16 TDs and just six INTs. Freddie Barnes is not the team's only talented WR but he is the best. He's the nation's leading receiver with 107 catches for 1,176 yards, and 10 TDs. He has a chance to set an NCAA record for receptions in a season. Manny Hazard had 142 receptions for Houston in 1989 and with three games remaining, Barnes has 107, which means he needs to average 12 catches per game to pass Hazard (he's averaging 11.9 through nine games). Sheehan has had little trouble vs MAC opponents in 2009, averaging almost 400 YPG through the air (385) in five games, while throwing 11 TDs with just three INTs. The Falcons won't forget that last year in Bowling Green the Redhawks scored the game's final 13 points in a 27-20 Miami win. Bowling Green avenged a similar such loss in its last outing, rallying from a 13-point, fourth-quarter deficit at Buffalo (BG led Buff 27-7 LY in the 4th quarter but lost 40-34 in 2 OTs!), as Sheehan threw two TD passes in the fourth quarter, the last coming with 39 seconds to go. Capping this play is Bowling Green's near-perfect ATS play away from home going back to mid-2007. The Falcons are 13-2 or 86.7% ATS over their last 15 road games.