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NY Islanders +1.07 over CAROLINA (REG) Pinnacle
Win, lose or draw, this “betting against the Canes” train keeps rolling and there’s no reason to get off until they show us something different. Carolina has now dropped a remarkable 13 games in a row and once again they’re sure not going to get any sympathy from this perennial bottom feeder. The Islanders are finally onto something good after years of futility. At the very worse, they’ll come out enthusiastically like they always do and play hard for 60 minutes. The Islanders have dropped three of four after a four-game winning streak, however, the losses came against the red-hot Sabres and Devils followed by an OT loss in Washington. Now the Islanders will take a huge, huge step down in class from that quartet and its chances of winning are greater than the Islanders chances. Any take-back against this frustrated and beaten down host has to be considered a good one. Play: NY Islanders +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.97 over CHICAGO (REG) Pinnacle
The Blackhawks remain one of the most overvalued teams in the league due to its great start this season after they put the hockey world on notice last year. They were a big favorite over the Av’s last game and although they won 3-2 in OT they were not the better team. The Av’s led 2-1 late and after Chicago tied it, Colorado hit three posts in the final minutes of the game. The Blackhawks have also played one of the easiest schedules in the league thus far. Meanwhile, the Leafs have played extremely well on the road and extremely well over the past 10 games or so. They’ve picked up points in all but one of its last eight and they’re most definitely a tough team to beat. Chicago’s biggest weakness is its goaltending and when you’re a huge favorite with shaky goaltending you’re also a huge risk at such a big price. It’s for that reason, among others, (the Blackhawks have the Sharks on deck) that the Maple Leafs are a solid pooch in a game they most definitely have a chance to win.
BUFFALO -½ +1.34 over Calgary Pinnacle
If nothing else, one has to trust that the Flames could very easily overlook this one in anticipation of a game tomorrow night on hockey’s biggest stage. Playing in prime time on Hockey Night in Canada in Montreal or Toronto is equivalent to NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football. It’s also worth noting that the Flames and Sabres have met just four times over the past seven years, thus, the motivation level for the Flames could be low in anticipation of tomorrow night’s match-up. In addition, the Sabres are just so tough to beat, especially at home, where they have six wins in eight games. The Flames are tough; make no mistake about that, not to mention an outstanding road record as well. However, this one is a good situational play in the Sabres favor and it says here the Flames will be ripe to get beat. Play: Buffalo -½ +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
John Morrison's pick(s) for November 13 2009
Cincinnati -9.5 This game is against West Virginia at 8:00 PM ET
John Morrison's Systems Plays
[b] Anaheim Ducks 11/13/09 Fri @Columbus
This means that you would make the [b] wager for the team on the
left on the date that the game is played. Remember to bet on the
+1.5 Puck Line if it is offered, and bet on the Money Line if
the Puck Line shows up as -1.5.
I rate my plays 3, 4 and 5 stars. Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.
Portland at New Orleans 8:05 PM ET
4* (708) NEW ORLEANS (+2)
Okay, let me get this straight. New Orleans, a miserable 3-6 so far in 2009, just fired their head coach and replaced him with the freakin’ GENERAL MANAGER. And now the Hornets have to take on one of the HOTTEST teams in the NBA, Portland, with only 2 points from the linemaker! The Blazers have roared to four straight EASY WINS, the last a 23-point demolition of Minnesota on the T’Wolves’ home court. I’m convinced the visitors will turn the Big Easy into the Big Sleazy by VIOLATING the hosts in a blowout win– so your play (and I feel guilty doing this to you) is on NEW ORLEANS.
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the visitors:
WVU’s defense stepped it up against Louisville last week and did not allow a TD; last year WVU was as good as anyone controlling the Bearcats last year, giving up only 26 points, including overtime, with one of the Cincinnati TD's coming on a kickoff return.
Not only is West Virginia 5-1 SU its last six, dating back the last three seasons its 18-7 SU its last 25 on the road.
On the other side of the field: Zach Collaros and Tony Pike will both see time in this game.
Each QB has proved he can effectively run the Bearcats’ spread, no-huddle offense, which ranks third nationally with 482.6 yards per game.
However, Cincinnati’s defense is still smarting from the second half against UConn last week, during which the Huskies burned them for 322 yards. Most disconcerting for UC was the 201 rushing yards allowed, including 162 and four TDs from Jordan Todman.
Bottom line: I believe the defensive struggles against the run will once again be a problem tonight for Cincinnati as they face one of the top backs in the nation in Noel Devine; Devine ranks 13th nationally with more than 112 yards per game and look for him, or Jock Sanders to have a strong game as the Mountaineers focus on establishing the run in this one.
Look for WEST VIRGINIA to improve to 1-1 ATS this season as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points while Cincinnati falls to a horrible 1-3 ATS its last four at Nippert Stadium!
The Mountaineers take on the Bearcats in Cincinnati in a key battle in the Big East Friday night. Aside from the visitor owning a 5-0-2 ATS series mark, the Mountaineers are a spotless 6-0 ATS as conference dogs of 6 or more points. Since the 2002 season, West Virginia is 40-11 SU in Big East play, with only four of those losses coming by double-digits. Inside those numbers is a 20-6 SU and ATS road mark, including 9-1 ATS when taking points. On the flip side our database tells us that undefeated favorites of more than 8 points, off four SU and ATS wins are just 16-29 ATS, including 9-21 ATS off a win of 19 or more points. With the pressure squarely on the Bearcats, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on West Virginia.
Minnesota will be without their leading scorer Al Jefferson for this game. Dallas is 11-3 ATS last 3 years after scoring 85 points or less. Minnesota is 30-55 ATS at home the past 3 years. Dallas is scoring 101.7 points per game overall this year. Minnesota is scoring only 85.6 points per game at home this year and allowing 106.4 points per game overall this season. Dallas is 17-7 ATS at Minnesota since 1996. Dallas is 4-0 SU and ATS at Minnesota past 3 years. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Mavericks are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following a SU loss. Mavericks are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss. Timberwolves are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games. Timberwolves are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 Friday games. Timberwolves are 21-49 ATS in their last 70 games as a home underdog. Timberwolves are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Minnesota. Road team is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings. We'll play Dallas for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.
The Celtics started out of the gate strong this year by winning their first three games by an average of over 20 PPG. However, they would go on to fail to cover in four of their next five (4-1 SU), but as we noted in Wednesday's 15* Non-Conference Game of the Week writeup, three days of rest would do them some good and sure enough they blew out the Jazz 105-86. Looking back at the last two seasons, fast starts are nothing new for the Celtics, who won 29 of their first 32 games in 2007-08 and 27 of their first 29 games last year. In their first four wins this season, they held opponents to 81 PPG and 39% shooting. Once again, they lead the league in defense (84.6 PPG). Now they face an Atlanta team they have historically dominated at home. Over the last three years, the Hawks are 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS in Beantown and the team is also 0-8 ATS after playing consecutive games where 205+ points were scored. Take Boston.
Count the Yards that Cincy gave up to U Conn...WOW.. Short on time, but UWV will score points and make this one interesting. The Noose gets tighter as Cincy has a lot of pressure on this game, UWV will play loose and throw the kitchen sink at them.
It's been almost two years since Cincinnati lost a home game at Nippert Stadium, and that was to this West Virginia team. The Bearcats won't let that happen again as favorites on Friday.
Unbeaten Cincinnati (9-0) looks to keep its BCS hopes alive Friday at home against No. 23 West Virginia Friday at Nippert Stadium in the annual Ring of Red game.
The fifth-ranked Bearcats, one of six undefeated teams in the nation, have a 10-game winning streak on their home turf and a 15-game regular-season winning streak. At 5-0 in the conference, Cincinnati remains tied for first place with Pittsburgh, a team it will face in its regular season finale in early December.
Meanwhile the The Mountaineers enter tonight’s nationally televised matchup at 7-2 overall and 3-1 in Big East play.
West Virginia coach Bill Stewart calls the Bearcats offense a “juggernaut” and who are we to argue. The Bearcats are on a different level offensively than the rest of the conference and the numbers they’re putting up are impressive.
Cincinnati is averaging 40 points per game on the season and has scored 40 or more points four times this season. Last week they racked up a school- record 711 total yards in a narrow 47-45 win over UConn. Quarterback Zach Collaros threw for 480 yards, the second-best passing total in school history, and a touchdown, while rushing for 75 yards and two scores.
Collaros, who is making his third straight start in place of the injured Tony Pike, has completed 76.0 percent of his throws with 10 touchdowns and just one pick. Even with Pike healthy, head coach Brian Kelly says Collaros will start but Pike will play.
Lost in the shadows of the passing attack is the Bearcats solid run game which is averaging 158 yards per game and a 5.2 yards per carry average.
As for the Mountaineers, they won a share of the Big East title in 2007 before taking a backseat to Cincinnati last season. WVU is still very much in the running for the title in 2009 with a 3-1 record, but it will likely need to run the table to accomplish that feat.
Last weekend, the Mountaineers may have got caught looking ahead to this game, as they barely slipped past a struggling Louisville club, 17-9, in Morgantown. The Mountaineers, winners of five of their last six games, now stand at 7-2, with both of losses coming on the road.
Noel Devine is the one of the top running backs in the nation and leads WVU with 1,010 yards and ten touchdowns. He suffered a sprained ankle last week but is expected to be ready for tonight’s game.
Quarterback Jarrett Brown, who also tweaked his ankle last week, has 332 yards rushing yards and the season with four touchdowns. He’s also a threat thru the air completing 64.5 percent of his throws for 10 touchdowns.
Cincinnati comes in with a record of 6-3 ATS but just 2-2 at home. The Bearcats are 4-5 to the 'under' on the year and 2-2 at home. West Virginia is 2-6 vs. the number and 1-3 ATS on the road.
I’m expecting the Bearcats to roll up the yards and the points tonight. Lay the double-digit lumber with confidence
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