11-15-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

IC Football

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8 Unit Play. #228. NFL Game of the Year. Take the Carolina Panthers +1 over the Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 1pm est). Well, this game has everything we are looking for. For starters, I was on the Panthers last week when they covered the spread against the New Orleans Saints. Heck, they nearly won that game Outright. Yes, they lost by double-digits but they easily covered the spread and this team once again was winning outright at half. These two teams have met earlier this year. And, the Falcons defeated Carolina by a score of 20-28. It was interesting when that line was originally set back on 9/20/09 as Atlanta was favored by six points and they barely covered winning by eight. Now, that over 75% of the public is on the Falcons on the road here, Carolina is placed as +1 dog. In fact, the line opened up at Carolina as a +2.5 dog and it has slowly come down despite 75% of the public riding the Falcons. Let me phrase it another way. With over three-fourths of the public on the visiting Falcons, the line has gone 1.5 points the other way for the Panthers who are at home and only 25% of the public is on them. That's a lot of smart money folks. The Panthers have revenge. The Panthers are at home. The Panthers are playing better. This is a division game and a must win game for Carolina. Note, the Panthers come off a loss and the Falcons come off a nice win at Carolina. Carolina will absolutely be rocking for this game as the Panthers are playing much better defeating the likes of Arizona on the road outright as a double-digit dog - heck, they won that game by double-digits as they covered that game by a ridiculous 23 points. Now, I am a Falcons fan. But, I am more interesting in making my clients money. I have not lost an NFL Game of the Year in my life and I don't plan on losing it today. Let's roll with the Panthers who are playing much better right now as they face my Falcons at home. The Falcons are just 1-3 on the road although they are a highly talented team, as I believe this is just a bad spot for them. Remember, all we need is Carolina to win here as even a field goal gets the job done for us. Panthers have covered back to back games and the last three of four, they likely cover three straight and four of five after this contest........................
4 Unit Play. #222. Take Tennessee Titans-6.5 over the Buffalo Bills (Sunday @ 1pm est). In Vince I trust. This team is playing with confidence once again as they are 2-6. It seems with Kerry they were going through the motions. Now, with Vince, they come off a huge win over the Niners on the road. It truly showed that this team was is coming back and their win last week was legit. With the Bills getting back Edwards and it will likely take him some time to get back in form, plus with the fact they are banged up quite a bit, and the Titans beginning to get on a roll here, I like the Titans here to cover the touchdown spread. The Titans could very well go 3-6 if they can pull this game off and who knows, as the season progresses on, they very well could finish 8-8 or possibly even 9-7 if the season works out how they need it to work out. I'm not the one to ride with the public here but I don't mind doing it as I think this team is about to get on a run and I want to be on the bandwagon for it. The Titans are indeed 2-0 ATS with Vince as the quarterback this year and I believe they have a good shot at going 3-0 ATS with Vince behind the wheel after this week. The Titans have put up 64 points in the last two weeks and they have a decent shot at covering the -6.5 here. .................................................. .4 Unit Play. #233. Take Seattle Seahawks +9 over the Arizona Cardinals (Sunday @ 4:15pm est). I talked about this on my video a bit but long story short, the Seahawks have revenge in this divisional game today. This team was embarrassed by Arizona at home earlier this year in front of their fans. Arizona comes off a big win over the Bears and I think it will be tough for them to get up for this game. More than likely, they will get up for the second half and lollygag a bit in the first half. The Seahawks are still a prideful team and they come off a nice second half against the Lions and I can see Matt H. leading his troops here to play well in Arizona. The line has been coming down steadily in favor of Seattle despite the public being on Arizona as well. Again, division game and revenge can go along way similar to the Panthers game which is our NFL Goy this week. The Cardinals are 4-9 ATS as a favorite by this margin and 7-15 ATS ATS as a home favorite by this margin in their last 22 games.
Good luck,

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Wunderdog

Game: New Orleans at St. Louis (Sunday 11/15 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 50 -110

The Cardinals have won just three football games in their last 28 tries. For that they can primarily blame their offense which is amongst the worst in NFL history over that period. The Rams offense has accounted for seven touchdowns in eight games on the season, and they have one INT returned for a TD. They rank dead last in the NFL, scoring just one of those seven offensive TDs from inside the 10-yard line. Overall the Rams average less than 10 points per game. It is very rare to see a total set in a game at or around the 50-point mark with just one offensive team in the game. The Saints offense is certainly powerful, but to put this one over the total it is likely they will have to push the 40-point mark. The Rams have played in just seven games in the last three years where a game total exceeded 50 points, discounting week 17 when mostly reserves play. The Rams defense isn't great, but they have only allowed 40 points or more in a game six times in their last 66 games (9% of the time). If and when the Saints open a big lead, they will eventually turn to the running game to milk the clock, and they may even rest starters late in this one. Yes, the Saints have put up 30+ points in each of their last four games. But, under Sean Payton, they are a perfect 6-0 UNDER follwoing 3+ straight games scoring 25 or more. I like this one to go UNDER the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Budin

25 DIME NFL SELECTION
AFC South Lock of the Year
Cincinnati

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Teddy Covers

11/15/09 NFL 20* Big Ticket: Buffalo +7.5 (221)

11/15/09 NFL Denver -3.5 (217)
11/15/09 NFL Cincinnati +7 (219)
11/15/09 NFL Carolina Over 43.5 -110 (228

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Doc's Sports

5 Units Dallas -3

4 Units Atlanta / Carolina Over 43.5

4 Units Tennessee -6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

CKO

* -Denotes Home Team

11 *N.Y. JETS over Jacksonville
Late Score Forecast:
*N.Y. JETS 31 - Jacksonville 13
(Sunday, November 15)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK


Pick # 1 New England Patriots (3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Pure Lock

Dallas -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Tom Stryker's 100% NFL Super Play of the Month

Pick # 1 New York Jets (-7.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Handicapper: Evan Altemus
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers - Sunday November 15, 2009 4:15 pm
Pick: 5 unit(s) ATS: Dallas Cowboys -3 (100) (Game of the Month)



This selection is definitely a public play, but I feel like the wise guys and sharp money aren’t accounting for just how bad Green Bay is this year. I also don’t think that the public is accounting for the improvement that the Cowboys have made over the last few weeks. The biggest problem with Dallas to start the season was the play of Tony Romo. He simply held this team back in the first few weeks. They should have won against Denver and the NY Giants if not for poor performances by Romo. Meanwhile, Green Bay has been horrible against the best teams on their schedule, while beating up on the worst teams. The Packers have lost and been out played against the Vikings twice, Cincinnati, and they should have lost to Chicago. Green Bay simply is not a good team, but they have had the luxury of playing a relatively weak schedule so far. As a result, they have appeared better than they really are. In addition, the Packers are riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball. The biggest problem for Green Bay is their inability to protect Aaron Rodgers. They have given up the most sacks in the league, while not being able to pressure the quarterback themselves. Dallas significantly outplayed Green Bay last year at Lambeau Field, and there is no reason why they won’t dominate them again in this game. Dallas has all of the momentum, while Green Bay is slumping. This is a game with two teams heading in different directions. Look for the Cowboys to get a blowout win.

5 UNIT SELECTION

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

SSG

Dallas v. Green Bay 4:15pm
PICK: Green Bay +3 Game (10**)
PICK: OVER 48 Game (10**)

New England v. Indy 8:30pm
PICK: New England +3 Game (10**)
PICK: OVER 48 Game (10**)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

From a friend of IWS

Wunderdog Plays for Sunday, 11/15

Game: New Orleans at St. Louis (Sunday 11/15 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

The Rams have won just three football games in their last 28 tries. For that they can primarily blame their offense which is amongst the worst in NFL history over that period. The Rams offense has accounted for seven touchdowns in eight games on the season, and they have one INT returned for a TD. They rank dead last in the NFL, scoring just one of those seven offensive TDs from inside the 10-yard line. Overall the Rams average less than 10 points per game. It is very rare to see a total set in a game at or around the 50-point mark with just one offensive team in the game. The Saints offense is certainly powerful, but to put this one over the total it is likely they will have to push the 40-point mark. The Rams have played in just seven games in the last three years where a game total exceeded 50 points, discounting week 17 when mostly reserves play. The Rams defense isn't great, but they have only allowed 40 points or more in a game six times in their last 66 games (9% of the time). If and when the Saints open a big lead, they will eventually turn to the running game to milk the clock, and they may even rest starters late in this one. Yes, the Saints have put up 30+ points in each of their last four games. But, under Sean Payton, they are a perfect 6-0 UNDER follwoing 3+ straight games scoring 25 or more. I like this one to go UNDER the total.


Game: Buffalo at Tennessee (Sunday 11/15 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +7 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

So much in the NFL is predicated on what happened in the previous week, and that has now taken hold of the Tennessee Titans. This is a team that started 0-6. But two wins vs. San Francisco and Jacksonville has vaulted this team into being a TD favorite? Buffalo is a team that has trouble with big offensive teams, or a team like Miami that runs the wildcat to perfection which is almost a version of a spread offense that is geared towards running not passing. Theys struggled against the No. 1 New Orleans offense, the No. 2 New England offense and the No. 8 Houston offense as well as Miami as mentioned above. But, the teams with mediocre offenses have not been a problem for Buffalo. The remaining four teams on their schedule thus far scored a combined 48 points against the Bills (12 per game). Tennessee fits that category as they are ranked in the bottom third of the league. The Titans’ defense, without Albert Haynesworht, allows nearly 30 ppg and the Bills will get on the board here enough to topple the big number. They have Trent Edwards back under center and they have had two weeks to prepare for this game. Buffalo has thrived over the years vs. losing teams as they are an amazing 26-9-1 ATS against a team with a losing record in their last 36 against them. Under Jeff Fisher, the Titans are 24-36 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. like Buffalo to hang close here.


Game: Detroit at Minnesota (Sunday 11/15 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 47.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

This has always been a big division rivalry game, regardless of the fates of the two teams coming in. Despite the fall of the Lions, they always seem to play the Vikings with passion. Last year these teams played to a 12-10 final here and the game in Detroit was 20-16. That was not an exception - it has been the rule in this series. Looking back over the last 12 meetings, just once did either team score over 28 points, and in those 12 meetings the total topped the 43-point mark just twice! The Vikings are not the type of team that sustains a big offensive performance as they have gone 21-8 to the UNDER after scoring 30 or more in their previous game, and they are also 26-12-1 to the UNDER off an ATS win. This game is always more defensive than it appears and history says this one goes UNDER the total. Detroit's offense is poor and getting worse. They are averaging just 16.6 ppg on the season and 10 per game their last three. They will be hard pressed to get more than 14 points in this game against a Vikings defense htat has handled weak offenses well this year. Minnesota has averaged just 14 points per game allowed vs. Cleveland, St. Louis and these Lions in their first meeting. If they do stay that low, it's a great sign for the UNDER as the Lions are 72-23 to the UNDER the last 95 times they scored two TDs or less in a game. Minnesota is 56-18 UNDER the last 74 times they have allowed 14 or less.


Game: Dallas at Green Bay (Sunday 11/15 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Green Bay +3 (-120) (risk 4 to win 3.3)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

Going all the way back to the 60's and the Ice Bowl, this has been a heated rivalry as these teams often met in the playoffs. Dallas has had the upper hand of late, but most of those were played in Dallas. This one is in Green Bay and it means a lot to Green Bay. At 4-4, a win vs. a loss here means a ton to them. The Packers lost in Tampa as a double-digit favorite last week, and teams that do that often come back with a vengeance the following week. The Packers are mostly considered to be an offensive team, but even after the 38-point debacle last week vs. Tampa, the Packers bring the No. 4 ranked defense (283 yards per game) back home to Lambeau Field. Dallas has run the ball very well, but they will be facing a Packer stop-unit that is ranked No. 2 in rushing yards allowed per carry at a stingy 3.47 per carry. The Cowboys’ offense which has scored over 30 points per game four times already has been stopped by excellent defenses, with the exception of the Giants which who proven that they haven't been as good defensively as their numbers indicate. Da Boys were held to 10 points at Denver, 21 vs. Carolina and 20 at Philadelphia - all teams that rank in the top 10. The Packers’ offense, meanwhile, has been consistent all season long as they have scored 21 or more in all eight of their games. With Dallas reeling off four straight wins, scoring in the stratosphere, America's Team is again getting the action and is facing an inflated line here. The Packers are home, need this game more, have a better defense, and an offense that has been consistent all season. I really like Green Bay here. I also like the UNDER. As mentioned, Green Bay's defense is much better than most think, ranked fourth in the league in yards allowed. And, Dallas has not scored a lot vs. good defenses, putting up an average of only 17 per game vs. Top 10 defenses. This will be an intense game given the rivarly and the importance and I think it goes UNDER.


Game: New England at Indianapolis (Sunday 11/15 8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 50 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

This game is one that most everyone wants to see, and could very well be a prelude to the AFC Championship game. Two of the best QBs all time face off here and that is always good for a push in the total upward. The ironic part of this game is as much as the QBs and offenses are getting to be the headlines for this game, it is the defenses that have been great , but under the radar. From a yardage standpoint, the Patriots' D ranks No. 7 and the Indianapolis Colts defense ranks No. 8, both just 30 yards per game or less from the No. 1 spot! What is even more impressive is that these teams rank No. 1 and No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game. I don't believe that there has ever been a NFL game in history that featured the top two defenses with a total set at 50. It just goes to show you that offense is king in the minds of bettors, and the oddsmakers have to do to account for that. After holding three straight opponents to under 185 yards passing, the Colts allowed 301 yards passing to Matt Shaub last week and that bodes well here as Indy is 16-4 to the UNDER int heir last 20 games following a game in which they allowed 300+ passing yards. Under Belichick, the Pats are 25-13 UNDER in November games (when the mercury drops, his team defense rises). The Belichick-led Pats are also 28-15 UNDER vs. teams that score 24+ ppg. This will be the fourth meeting between these teams in the regular season in the last four years, and not one would have topped this total. I don't think this one does either.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Al Demarco
5 DIME
DOUBLE DIGIT
BLOWOUT OF THE YEAR
DOLPHINS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Kelso:
200 unit Dallas -3 Green Bay
50 unit New England +2.5 Indy
15 unit New Orleans -13.5 St. Louis
5 unit Jacksonville +6.5 NYJ
4 unit Dolphins -10 Tampa
3 unit Arizona -8.5 Seattle