Tweet
Re: 11-15-09
tim trushel
carolina/20*
over carolina/ regular
cincy/ regular
detroit/ regular
tim trushel
carolina/20*
over carolina/ regular
cincy/ regular
detroit/ regular
-
Re: 11-15-09
Dominic Fazzini
Dominic Fazzini Sunday's plays 25 Dime -- Saints (minus points vs. RAMS)
SAINTS
Analysis upcoming
10 Dime -- Broncos (minus points vs. REDSKINS)
BRONCOS
Look for Denver to re-establish its running game today with Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter after getting away from it during its two-game losing streak.
Washington's defense allowed a season-high 181 rushing yards last week in its 31-17 loss to Atlanta, and it's starting to wear down in an atttempt to carry the load for a bad team.
The Redskins are averaging just 14.1 points per game, and they haven't scored more than 17 in a game all season. Now they have to face a the NFL's third-ranked defense without two of their top offensive weapons, running back Clinton Portis and tight end Chris Cooley.
Denver allows just 15.5 points and 280.2 yards per game, and should have a relatively easy time rattling Redskins QB Jason Campbell, who has thrown eight interceptions and been sacked 25 times, the third-highest total in the league. The Broncos rank third in the NFL with 26 sacks.
Denver is 3-1 SU on the road and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall. Washington is 1-4-1 in its last six games as a home underdog, 0-4 ATS in its last four home games and 2-11-3 in its last 16 games overall. The road team in this series is 4-0 ATS in the teams' last four meetings. Take the Broncos to cover the points today.Comment
-
Re: 11-15-09
Craig Davis
Sunday's Lineup
40 Dime --- RAMS (Buy the 1/2 point up if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2)
20 Dime --- EAST CAROLINA (Buy the 1/2 point if your line is +4)
BENGALS (Buy the 1/2 point)
RAMS (buy the half point if your line is +14 or if it drops to +13 1/2) --- Still trying to recover from that absolute screw job I got on Saturday, and I plan to do it with the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the New Orleans Saints today. I realize the Saints are the "sexy" pick this year, scoring points at will against anyone who stands in their way, including several comeback wins when they are trailing at halftime. But I think we catch New Orleans a little flat in this spot after so many hard-fought come-from-behind games lately. After winning (and covering) their first six games of the season, the Saints have struggled to cover the last two double-digit numbers they've given... and both of those games were at home.
Now Vegas is asking them to go on the road and win by more than two touchdowns. Are they capable of doing that? Sure they are, if you consider they average 35 PPG... more than anyone else in the league. But recent history is against them in this series. Not since 1998 have the Saints beaten the Rams by more than 14 points and the Rams have actually won 2 straight vs. the Saints and 3 of the last 4 SU. Yes, I realize this is a bad Rams team and the Saints are probably better than they were in those previous meetings, but the numbers don't lie, and this day and age when underdogs are making a comeback, I think getting anything more than 10 points is a bonus.
And like I previously mentioned, let's also keep in mind that the Saints could find themselves in a very flat spot here knowing they just came off two grueling home wins vs. Atlanta and Carolina and a possible look-ahead game vs. the Patriots coming up in a few weeks. For now, New Orleans has two very winnable games at St. Louis and at Tampa Bay, and I can't help but think they are looking past these two opponents in preparation for that big home showdown with the Pats. I'm not saying they're taking St. Louis lightly, but they are human and realize it would take a complete meltdown on their part to lose this game, so to expect them to come out all fired up is a bit premature... no one gets excited to play the Rams.
I'd like you to also remember the Saints aren't 100% healthy this week, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if HC Sean Payton sits (rests) a few of his key players to make sure they are healthy for the stretch run. WR Lance Moore likely won't play with an ankle injury. Marques Colston and TE Jeremy Shockey have missed practice this week with flu-like symptoms, but H1N1 has been ruled out. Starting CB Jabari Greer, who's been the most consistent lockdown corner the Saints have had all year, won't be ready for today's game with a bum groin suffered in last week's win over Carolina. LB Scott Fujita and S Darren Sharper have both been limited in practice this week and could be limited in today's game as well. There are others, but I won't bore you with the details. Just know that the Saints are far from 100% today and it could force them to play conservative, keeping the ball on the ground and settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.
As for St. Louis, the writing is on the wall for their game plan... a heavy dose of Steven Jackson mixed in with the occasional run from FB Mike Karney. Why Karney? Because he was released by the Saints and claimed by the Rams this season, meaning he has every reason in the world to play the best game of his career. If Karney and Jackson can provide a spark in the running game (and they should all be much healthier after the bye week), the Rams will milk the clock, keep Brees and company on the sidelines, and make this a low scoring game. Also remember this... as of late, when the Saints get the lead they seem to sit on it. They aren't going for the jugular as much anymore and that's very good news for our side. Top play of the day on the St. Louis Rams PLUS the points over the Saints.
EAST CAROLINA --- Let me first suggest that you wait until the very last minute to bet this game. It opened at Tulsa -6 and has since gone down to -4 or -4.5 in a few spots, telling me it's probably going to go back up as some of the money starts pouring in on Tulsa. Let it pour, because the Tulsa money is the wrong side. Let me take you back to the Houston/Tulsa game last Saturday. A game Tulsa has prepared for the last two weeks. A game they knew they could win... and a win that would get them one game closer to bowl eligibility. You should know the rest of the story. Houston scored a TD with :21 seconds left, but failed to convert the two-point conversion. Tulsa fans, with their team up two, were ecstatic. The players could see the light at the end of the tunnel. All their hard work and dedication and preparation had actually paid off against a ranked team at home. Houston had rolled through the likes of Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State. They had one of the best offenses in the country. Beating these guys would be a great reward to an otherwise disappointing season. Well, apparently it wasn't to be because the Cougars executed a pretty good onside kick, recovered the ball, and two plays later they were kicking the game-winning, 51-yard field goal as time expired.
The air was let out of the sails. The season was all but over. That loss left a scar on this senior class that will never go away, so to expect them to "get up" for a game with defensive-minded East Carolina tonight is a bit of a stretch. How can we ask these kids, who spent so much energy fighting for last week's game, to get the job done tonight against a team that plays better defense than any team Tulsa has faced this year other than Oklahoma? And let's not forget what the Sooners did to the Hurricane in that one (a 45-0 shutout). ECU comes in getting extra rest having not played since last Thursday... a 16-3 loss to ACC power Virginia Tech. Tonight the Tulsa defense will look like a high school team compared to the team they last faced, and I expect a healthy split of pass and run with very good success. The Pirates pass for nearly 200 yards per game while running for about 150 per game, and last I checked Tulsa doesn't play much defense in either facet. I wouldn't be surprised if East Carolina won this game outright, but since yesterday was such a freaking joke of a train wreck, we'll play the line and count the cash.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (be safe and buy the half point) --- Lovin' the underdogs today as pups have come out of the closet recently, getting Vegas back on track after a slow start to the season. Cincy has been a fun team to watch this year, winning games they probably shouldn't while losing games they should have probably won. We all remember that miracle Denver win back in Week 1. We also remember the Texans coming into Cincy in Week 7 and laying the beat-down on the Bengals in the second half. But despite it all, the Bengals are 6-2 on the season and a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's quite amazing if you think about it, but the Bengals have already beaten the Ravens twice this year, and with a win today will be 4-0 against both the Ravens and Steelers. Asking the Steelers to win this game by more than 7 points is asking a bit much, so that's why I'm taking the road team here.
The visitor has won this meeting seven of the last 10 times and has covered 11 of the last 15. Cincy has also been very good on the Vegas line this year, having covered 5 of their last 7 ball games including two in a row. We have a Pittsburgh team, fresh off a Monday night road win (and cover) over the Denver Broncos, expected to come back home on a short week and beat Cincy by more than a touchdown. Isn't that asking a bit much? Cincinnati has only been beaten twice this year because they play very sound defense and they run the ball exceptionally well. Cedric Benson and Rashard Mendenhall will be trying to "one up" each other much of the day, which leads me to believe this game is going to be very physical... back to the old school days of when the Steelers used to play smash-mouth football. Pittsburgh might very well win this game, but it's not going to be by more than a field goal or so. Bonus play on the Bengals plus the number.Comment
-
Re: 11-15-09
Tony Weston
SUNDAY'S PLAYS 40 Dime Patriots
10 Dime Broncos
Patriots at Colts
PATRIOTS - The Indianapolis Colts are without Bob Sanders and Marlin Jackson and have two rookies starting at corner and now get to battle a New England Patriots team that is on fire lately.
The Colts are laying about 2 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing this, and will fail to cover and be in a position to lose outright to the visiting Pats.
New England rolls into this game having gone 4-2 ATS its last 6 games and having destroyed its opponents the last two weeks, outscoring teams in that three-game stretch 121-24, or 40.3-8, on average.
The Colts, on the other hand, are lucky to still be undefeated as they’ve survived huge scares the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, down 14-9 at home against the San Francisco 49ers, the Colts needed 9 second-half points to pull off the win, but still failed to cover as a 13-point favorite.
Then last week, down 17-13 at home against the Texans, the Colts needed late heroics from Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai to pull out the 20-17 win, but again, failed to cover as a 7 1/2 point favorite.
The Patriots are miles ahead of the Texans and 49ers and are good enough to keep the Colts down if they have them in that position.
It’ll be a great game and one in which the Patriots will flirt with the outright win. Take the points and take New England on the road in this one.
Broncos at Redskins
BRONCOS - Sure the Denver Broncos have looked pretty bad the last couple of weeks, getting beat up 30-7 at the Baltimore Ravens then getting humiliated at home on Monday night 28-10 against the Steelers.
From 6-0 SU and ATS, the Broncos are now 6-2 SU and ATS, but will still get over easily on the road at the Redskins.
While the Broncos have had their share of struggles the last two weeks, at least they haven’t struggled all season long like the Redskins, who are just 2-6 SU this year and have covered in just one game.
The Redskins have lost four consecutive games SU and have failed to cover in three straight. During this three game non-cover streak the Redskins have lost by an average of 10.6 points per game, including last week’s 31-17 loss at Atlanta as a 9-point underdog.
Consider, too, the Redskins have not covered in any of their 4 home games this year. While Washington is 2-2 SU at home, those first two wins came against the then winless Rams and Buccaneers. But the last two home games have seen the Redskins lose by an average of 9 points per game.
Things aren’t getting any better today as the Broncos will hand Washington another home loss.Comment
-
Re: 11-15-09
Stephen Nover
Sunday Sweep
75 Dime SAINTS
30 Dime DOLPHINS
15 Dime OVER Chiefs/Raiders
75 Dime SAINTS - There's a myth that you can't get value when laying double-digits in the NFL.
I find plenty of value laying two touchdowns with the Saints against the Rams in this matchup. It doesn't matter that St. Louis was idle last week or is at home.
There's no comparison between these two clubs. The Saints certainly aren't going to be bothered being on the road against a team getting luke-warm crowd support, while playing in their natural dome setting on carpet.
The Rams have eight touchdowns in eight games. The Saints have scored seven touchdowns - on defense. The Rams are averaging 9.6 points per game. New Orleans is scoring at a record 37.9 points per clip. The Rams rank 29th in scoring defense. It's not hard to do the math.
Unlike some other first-year NFL coaches, I like the Rams' Steve Spagnuolo. But he inherited maybe the worst talent in the league. His battered secondary has no chance to contain Drew Brees and his multiple targets and improved running attack. There are reasons why St. Louis has won only one of its last 18 games.
The Saints own huge edges at nearly every position. Steven Jackson is the Rams' only playmaker, but he's not much help when his team falls behind big. Jackson is having a good year statistically, but has managed only one touchdown with defenses keying on him and his team constantly trailing by wide margins.
Marc Bulger has been no help with a 68.2 quarterback rating and only three touchdown passes.
Sean Payton has a history of crushing inferior opponents. This is just the Saints' third game against a bad team. In the other two, they beat the Lions by 18 points and the Bills by 20 on the road.
The Saints are 16-6 (72 percent) against the spead the past 22 times they've been chalk.
30 Dime DOLPHINS - The Buccaneers' surprising upset win at home against Green Bay last Sunday in Josh Freeman's NFL debut as a starting quarterback has helped keep this line down.
That's fine with me because I see the Dolphins, a much superior team, burying the Buccaneers. Keep in mind about last week that Green Bay imploded against the Buccaneers, giving up a touchdown on an interception return, a touchdown on a blocked punt and another score following a long kickoff return.
The Dolphins aren't going to self-destruct like that at home against a weak Tampa Bay defense that ranks 30th against the run and 29th overall.
Miami has a run-oriented, physical offense that can pound the undersized Buccaneers while also effectively keeping them off balance with trickery from the wildcat formation.
The Dolphins are just 3-5 this season after going 11-5 last year because their schedule has been much stronger and they've faced five elite quarterbacks - Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
Freeman hardly fits into in that class. This will be his first road start. He's not an NFL starting-caliber quarterback yet. This game will show that. Freeman's preseason rating was 41 percent and that was operating against vanilla second and third string defenses.
Raheem Morris is overmatched as a head coach. The Buccaneers just ended their 11-game losing streak. They don't know how to handle success, which hasn't come often since they are 3-10 against the spread in their past 13 games.
15 Dime OVER Chiefs/Raiders - Statistically speaking, Kansas City and Oakland don't offer much in the way of offense. They rank in the bottom three in total offense. The Raiders average less than 10 points per game.
That's why the linesmaker has set an 'over/under' of 36 1/2 on this matchup. Going over this total isn't difficult with good offenses or bad defenses.
The Chiefs rank 30th in total defense and 30th versus the pass. They have the second-fewest sacks in the NFL with 10. That's a bad defense.
I'm not a fan of JaMarcus Russell. I don't know anyone who is. But the Raiders have speed at receiver that can take advantage of Kansas City's slow secondary. The Raiders also are finally getting back some of their key offensive players following their bye week. The list includes running back Darren McFadden, supposed No. 1 wide receiver Chaz Schilens perhaps their best offensive lineman, Robert Gallery.
McFadden and wideouts Louis Murphy and Darrius Heyward-Bey are all speedsters in the 4.4 to 4.3 40-yard speed range. Kansas City's secondary can't match that.
The Chiefs piled up 409 yards when they met the Raiders in Week 2. Since then, Kansas City has opened its offense more using no-huddle and cutting Larry Johnson. Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith bring an outside dimension to the Chiefs' running attack something they lacked with the washed-up Johnson.
Kansas City's offensive line also has gotten healthier with the return of left tackle Branden Albert and center Rudy Niswanger. The Chiefs have added veteran Chris Chambers to their receiving corps. He gives Matt Cassel another tall red zone target to go with reliable Dwayne Bowe.
The Chiefs had a good week of practice. Their coach, Todd Haley, said it was their best Friday practice of the season. That could translate into enough points to help get over this low total.Comment
-
Re: 11-15-09
Nick BookieKiller Parsons
Jacksonville vs Jets
We came up short with the Jaguars last week as they let the Chiefs score a late TD; despite that loss, we're 5-1 (83%) overall our last six "free NFL" selections, and we'll look to get back on track with another play on Jacksonville this week as it travels to New York to take on the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets Jets:
The Jaguars got back to .500 at 4-4 for the third time this season last Sunday when they beat Kansas City, 24-2, and now head to New York to take on a Jets team that has lost four of its last five games.
David Garrard threw for 264 yards, including a 61-yard TD pass to Mike Sims-Walker, and had a 110.7 QB rating against the Chiefs.
Expect to see a lot of Maurice-Jones Drew in this one as well as the RB continues to excel this season.
After allowing the Titans 305 rushing yards last week, they held the Chiefs to just 60 yards in 14 carries.
It's true that Jacksonville is just 1-4 ATS its last five overall, but its 4-2 SU its last six and is on a long-term 5-0 ATS run vs. New York.
On the other side of the field: Mark Sanchez is the seventh-lowest rated starting QB in the AFC, and his eight fumbles are a major red flag.
New York is coming off a disheartening loss to the Dolphins and I expect a "letdown" this week; the Jets are 1-4 ATS their last five and are a horrible 2-5 ATS their last seven at Giants Stadium.
Bottom line: I look for Jones Drew to have a big day and test the Jets defensive line and believe this game will come down to a FG; look for the JAGUARS to improve to a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points and for the Jets to fall to 2-4 ATS their last six as a favorite. Take Jacksonville.Comment
-
Comment
Comment