11-15-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Lenny Del Genio

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS +2

Many factors set this one up as a big play on the Chiefs. For starters, this is a big revenge spot for KC. They outgained the Raiders 409-167 and won the TOP battle 38:39 to 21:21. Oakland QB Russell completed just seven passes for 99 yards and somehow his team won. The former #1 Overall DC has not improved a lick since that time, ranking ahead of only failed Cleveland stater Derek Anderson in terms of passer rating. The Raiders offense has scored just 45 points in its last six games, scoring seven or fewer in four of them. Kansas City is at least showing signs of improvement with last week's 21-point effort against Jacksonville (lost by three). QB Cassel will have more time to throw now that LT Albert and C Niswanger are back in the starting lineup. RB Jamal Charles is a welcome replacement in the backfield for malcontent Larry Johnson, who was doing nothing anyway. The acquisition of WR Chris Chambers is a solid compliment to Dwayne Bowe. That Oakland Week 2 win improved the visitor to 12-1 SU the last 13 meetings between these teams and that includes six straight road wins by KC. Clearly, we think they will return the favor from the Week 2 loss. The Raiders have lost six straight post-bye week games and are just 15-36-1 ATS their last 52 home games. Look for the Chiefs to rally around the dismissal of Johnson. Kansas City is our 25* AFC West Game of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Evan Altemus

DALLAS COWBOYS -3

This selection is definitely a public play, but I feel like the wise guys and sharp money aren’t accounting for just how bad Green Bay is this year. I also don’t think that the public is accounting for the improvement that the Cowboys have made over the last few weeks. The biggest problem with Dallas to start the season was the play of Tony Romo. He simply held this team back in the first few weeks. They should have won against Denver and the NY Giants if not for poor performances by Romo. Meanwhile, Green Bay has been horrible against the best teams on their schedule, while beating up on the worst teams. The Packers have lost and been out played against the Vikings twice, Cincinnati, and they should have lost to Chicago. Green Bay simply is not a good team, but they have had the luxury of playing a relatively weak schedule so far. As a result, they have appeared better than they really are. In addition, the Packers are riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball. The biggest problem for Green Bay is their inability to protect Aaron Rodgers. They have given up the most sacks in the league, while not being able to pressure the quarterback themselves. Dallas significantly outplayed Green Bay last year at Lambeau Field, and there is no reason why they won’t dominate them again in this game. Dallas has all of the momentum, while Green Bay is slumping. This is a game with two teams heading in different directions. Look for the Cowboys to get a blowout win.

5 UNIT SELECTION DALLAS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Steve Duemig

Sunday sweep
30 Dime Panthers



It may not seem like a lot but sometimes a 1 point move means an awful lot. That is the case here with this division matchups that are always close between these two teams. Now we see the line move only one little point but is the way that we always like to see. In reverse ! Atlanta is catching 80% of the spread bets but yet the line has moved down towards the home team Panthers. That means some awfully big money is hitting the Panthers while the public is knocking down their favorite team in the Falcons. Look for the passing game of the Panthers to wake up in this one against a very raw Falcon secondary. Trust me, in this conference, only the Bucs should be catching point at home, no one else.



10 Dime Redskins



Since the Redskins have been so pathetic lately, it's been hard to notice the outstanding play of "big money" Albert Haynesworth. He can destroy a team's offense by himself. He is playing that well. This will also be the 3rd straight physical defense that Denver's offense will see, and they are coming off the dreaded Monday night game. They are working on a short week and they also have to come west to east. We also have our favorite play trigger. The reverse line move. Denver is getting 83 % of the spread bets, yet the spread has moved DOWN towards the Skins! ! It has moved a full point off the opener of 4.5 to 3.5 as of this writing. I fully expect this spread to move up once again as the public continues to pound Denver. When it starts to move back up to the opener grab the Skins and play with the smart money.



5 Dime Packers



Red hot America's team, the Dallas Cowboys versus a Green Bay team that lost to the Vikings and their former QB one week, and then did the impossible and loss to the Bucs!! Now everyone looks at GB as YUK. Good!! That's what we always look for, VALUE.



The line opened, DAL -1 and has moved up to the key number of 3. With Dallas getting 75% of the bets this is where the public has put it. So we are going to take a stand against the public here and bet against them. All we have to do is hope that Coach McCarthy can get through to Aaron Rogers to dump the ball off and quit taking sacks. He also has to straighten out the Special Teams as well. But we will grab the points here, and the value in the line.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Docs NHL

4 Unit Play Take Minnesota (-110) at Carolina (Sunday, Nov. 15, 1:30 pm) - I rarely like to take a favorite, even a slim one like this, but I can't pass on it here. The Wild have lost two in a row, and that's probably why they are only favored by this much. They have won four of seven, though, and lost another of the seven in a shootout, so they are playing pretty well. They have a significant numerical advantage over the Hurricanes, but so would four monkeys on roller skates at this point. The Hurricanes are playing really badly - a massive understatement - and there is real value in betting that they will continue on their incredible losing streak when they are at home.

Best of luck - Doc's Sports

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Joe Nelson

Broncos at Redskins
Pick: Broncos -3.5

The Broncos face a short week coming off a huge Monday night game and if the Broncos are off a loss there will be some growing pressure as San Diego is keeping pace in the AFC West and memories of last year’s collapse still linger. Washington out-gained Atlanta last week but had an interception returned for a touchdown and allowed too many big plays at the wrong times. The Redskins have played the weakest schedule in the league and yet are just 2-6 and injuries are adding to the rash or other issues for this sinking team. A lot of people still are not buying into what Denver has done but the defensive numbers are incredibly impressive and this is a solid offensive team that has a much greater chance of success, even if this game comes in a tough situation off a big Monday game with the Chargers next.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Andre Gomes

DAL -3 vs GBP

These two teams are going in opposite directions and in my opinion the Cowboys with the momentum on their side have all the conditions to get another great road win this week. In this matchup, I won't compare Aaron Rodgers with Tony Romo because they are two good quarterbacks. The huge difference between these two teams is related with their offensive and defensive lines.

The Packers may have a good quarterback and terrific wide receivers, but their offensive line is plain and simple terrible! Last week they lost against a winless team by 28-38 and Aaron Rodgers was sacked 6 times, while throwing 3 interceptions! I remember that we are talking about a Buccaneers team that had only 11 sacks before that game in one of the worst marks of the league. Meanwhile, the Cowboys didn't enjoy a good start of the season in terms of pass rushing, however they are peaking right now - one of the main reasons for their 4-game winning streak, as during that span they sacked the opposing quarterback 15 times! To make a point in here, I have to say that the Packers' Defensive Line produced just 13 sacks in the season in 8 games and so, we are dealing with two completely different units.

The Packers may have a "decent" 4-4 record, but a brief look to their wins, we can see that they defeated the Bears, the Rams, the Lions and the Browns - 4 overall bad teams that have a combined record of 8-26 and besides the Bears, the others three teams are in the bottom of their respective divisions! Against positive record teams, the Packers constantly failed to win and Aaron Rodgers was sacked, hit, and pressured several times through the games.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are a rising team and they have the full package for a road win. They have a terrific running game with three quality RB's in Barber, Jones and Choice and Tony Romo has finally found a #1 target in Miles Austin. The Cowboys had their premium test last week in Philadelphia against the Eagles and they didn't disappoint in both ends of the field. I expect them to carry the momentum and defeat the hapless Packers on the Lambeau Field today. Take Dallas in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Dallas Cowboys -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Marc Lawrence late phone plays
3*ST Louis
3*GB
3*Philly

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Ron Meyer

15* Chargers

10* Steelers

5* Bills

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W id ow W ise guy 2009 A FC G AME OF THE YE AR on Jets -6.5(-116 at 5dimes)

The Jets have had a bye week to steam over their loss to the Miami Dolphins, 25-30, last time out. New York completely dominated every phase of that game except for special teams, where they allowed two 100-plus kickoff returns to Ted Ginn Jr. They also gave up a touchdown to Miami's defense on a fumble from RB Shonn Greene. New York outgained Miami 378-104 in that game, not numbers you would expect to see from the losing team. We strongly feel the Jets will put everything together this week and play a complete 48-minute ball game while dominating all 3 phases Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars are 4-4 this season, but 3 of those wins have come at home against the Titans, Rams and Chiefs who own a combined 4-20 record. The Jaguars have really struggled on the road, going 1-3 away from home which includes a 41-0 loss at Seattle and a 13-30 loss at Tennessee in their most recent road trips. This is a must-win game for the Jets if they want to make any run at the playoffs, and coming off a bye week New York will piece together their best effort of the season Sunday. The Jets are a stellar 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games off a home loss since 1992, covering the spread 87% of the time in this spot. The Jaguars are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. The Jets won't need to throw the ball much Sunday to run away with this game. Jacksonville allows 157 rushing yards/game on the road and 4.4 yards/carry. The Jets average 178 rushing yards/game and 4.8 yards/carry this season, so they should have no problem moving the ball on the ground all game long against this soft Jaguars' front seven. In 4 road games this season, the Jaguars have been outscored by an average of 13.2 points/game. Take the Jets and lay the points. (This is still a 6* Play at -7, and if the line jumps any higher then we recommend buying down to 7).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on N ew O rle ans S ain ts -13.5(+104 at 5dimes)

New Orleans is going to score nearly every time they get the ball, and St. Louis won't be able to score enough points to keep up with them and stay within two touchdowns. The Saints have actually played their best football away from home, going 3-0 and outscoring their opponents by 19.3 points/game. They are scoring 40.3 points/game away from home and allowing 21.0 points/game on the road. Their 3 road wins have come at Philly 48-22, at Buffalo 27-7 and at Miami 46-34. All 3 of those teams are better than the Rams, which obviously isn't saying much since St. Louis is 1-7 this season. St. Louis is 0-3 at home, losing by 27.7 points/game. They are scoring just 11.0 points/game at home and allowing 38.7 points/game. They lost to Green Bay 17-36, to Minnesota 10-38 and to the Colts by a final of 6-42. We see no reason the Saints shouldn't be able to blow out the Rams like those three teams already have, and New Orleans should really be more than a two-touchdown favorite Sunday. The Saints are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take New Orleans and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Docs GOY

PICK: Dallas Cowboys
Your pick will be graded at: -3 WSEX
EXPERT: ***** Sports
TITLE: Doc’s 10* NFL Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: 10 Unit Play. #137 Take Dallas over Green Bay (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Weekend. For some reason the Green Bay Packers continue to get way too much respect from the general public and the odds makers. The Packers have been favored in every game but one this season. Despite playing one of the easiest schedules in the league, they are just 4-4 and with a loss here they will likely drop out of playoff contention. Green Bay has a terrible offensive line and QB Rogers has been sacked early and often in each game that they played expect against Cleveland. Dallas quietly sits atop the standing in the NFC East and will enter this game having won four straight games. Dallas played at Lambeau Field in 2008 and won that game, 27-16 and I really believe that both teams are similar in talent. That score was not indicative of how much of a blowout this game was since Dallas led by 18 points before the Packers scored a late fourth quarter touchdown. QB Romo has played well recently and found a hidden gem in WR Austin, a player that finds the end zone in every game. Romo has been sacked just eight times this season and that is usually how many time Rogers goes down in one game. The Packers faithful is ready to oust Coach McCarthy and GM Thompson and this result will give them another reason to pull the plug. Dallas 27, Green Bay 16.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

Fairway Jay
Bengals
Carolina
Rams
Bills
Pats

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on N ew O rle ans S ain ts -13.5(+104 at 5dimes)

New Orleans is going to score nearly every time they get the ball, and St. Louis won't be able to score enough points to keep up with them and stay within two touchdowns. The Saints have actually played their best football away from home, going 3-0 and outscoring their opponents by 19.3 points/game. They are scoring 40.3 points/game away from home and allowing 21.0 points/game on the road. Their 3 road wins have come at Philly 48-22, at Buffalo 27-7 and at Miami 46-34. All 3 of those teams are better than the Rams, which obviously isn't saying much since St. Louis is 1-7 this season. St. Louis is 0-3 at home, losing by 27.7 points/game. They are scoring just 11.0 points/game at home and allowing 38.7 points/game. They lost to Green Bay 17-36, to Minnesota 10-38 and to the Colts by a final of 6-42. We see no reason the Saints shouldn't be able to blow out the Rams like those three teams already have, and New Orleans should really be more than a two-touchdown favorite Sunday. The Saints are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take New Orleans and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on M inn e so ta Vi kin gs -16(-110 at betus)

Minnesota already beat the Lions 27-13 on the road earlier this season. They actually trailed in that game 10-0 before coming back to cover. Now they get the Lions at home, and this game has an even bigger blowout written all over it. The Vikings are coming off a bye, so they have had time to get healthy and should be very hungry to hit the field at home Sunday after having now playing last weekend. Detroit continues finding ways to get blown out. The Lions actually led Seattle 17-0 last week before getting outscored 32-3 the rest of the way to lose by 12 points. The Lions are now 0-4 on the road this season, losing by 20.0 points/game. So even with this big spread, there is still plenty of value with the Vikings. Plus, Minnesota will remember their slow start at Detroit earlier this season and will make a point to get off to a fast start this time around to put the Lions away early. The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Vikings are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. No letdown here at Minnesota returns from their bye week and dominates from start to finish. Take the Vikings and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-15-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on D en ver B ron cos -3(-110 at bodog)

After back-to-back losses, the Broncos are finally starting to show value again this week as they travel to Washington. Had they not been blown out the last 2 weeks by the Ravens and Steelers, the Broncos would be closer to a 7-point favorite against Washington this week. Their struggles the last 2 games places all value with Denver this week as they are clearly the better team than the Redskins, and that will show on the field Sunday. Washington has now lost 4 straight games, including 2 home losses to the Chiefs and Eagles by 8 points or more. The Redskins are only scoring 12.2 points/game at home this season, and now Clinton Portis is out with a concussion, taking away their best weapon on offense. Denver's defense has been stout, holding opponents to just 15.5 points/game. Points will certainly be hard to come by for Washington again this week, especially against a Denver team that is very hungry following 2 straight losses. It's easy to see which team will be more motivated. Players in Washington are just looking forward to the end of the season after all of the negative publicity they have been getting through the first 9 weeks en route to a 2-6 record, while Denver has playoff aspirations and really needs this win Sunday to get back on track. The Redskins have really struggled against AFC foes as well. Washington is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Denver is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. Though their offense has struggled the last 2 weeks, Denver won't need many points Sunday to cover this spread as they face one of the worst offenses in the league. Take Denver and lay the points.