11-16-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

Royal Sports

MNF 9* Play-Over Baltimore/Cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

prolocks 11/16

20 Dime: Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

Stephen Nover
Stephen Nover
Monday night ...
15 Dime RAVENS

NOTE: The New Orleans Saints picked the worst time to play their flattest game of the season. I had the Saints as my biggest play - a 75-dime selection - on Sunday against the Rams. The Saints won, but failed to cover a two-touchdown spread.

The Saints had a chance to either push or cover the spread midway through the final quarter, but Sean Payton elected to pass on a makeable field goal attempt to go on fourth down and short. A quick-hitter by the fullback failed to generate the necessary first-down yardage. This play-call was extremely frustrating to watch. I much rather would have wanted to see the Saints take their shot with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas or Drew Brees passing to Marques Colston or any of his other receiving weapons.

I lost my two other paid Sunday selections, with the Dolphins failing to cover as a 30-dime play against the Buccaneers and took a 15-dime loss when the Chiefs-Raiders couldn't generate enough second-half points to go over the total.

I did win on my free selection of the underdog Chiefs, who beat the Raiders.

College football started on a good note Friday night with West Virginia covering against Cincinnati as a 20-dime Big East Game of the Year.

But on Saturday I went 1-2 on my 15-dime trifecta of Iowa (won), Mississippi State (lost) and USC (lost). My free selection of Louisville lost, too, with the Cardinals failing to cover a touchdown spread versus banged-up Syracuse.

15 Dime RAVENSYou would think the networks would have learned their lesson after last year. But here the Browns are back on national television - and they're as bad as ever having lost 13 of their last 14.

Eric Mangini is actually making Browns fans fondly recall the Romeo Crennel era. Cleveland is in disarray and the statistics reflect that. The Browns entered this week ranked last in total defense and 30th in scoring, averaging 9.8 points per game.

The Ravens have cooled off after a hot start. Their defense is no longer dominant and quarterback Joe Flacco is learning on the job. But the Ravens are light years ahead of Cleveland.

Derek Anderson had the lowest quarterback rating in the league at 36.2. Mangini is pulling him for Brady Quinn, who he originally started and then was yanked for Anderson. That happened in Week 3 against Baltimore. The Ravens rolled past the Browns, 34-3. Flacco passed for 342 yards in that matchup. The Ravens had four interceptions.

Quinn has no playmaking ability. All he does is check down. The Ravens won't have a problem handling such a popgun attack.

Offensively, Flacco and Ray Rice can hurt a terrible Cleveland defense that has been made weaker by the loss of its two top tacklers, linebackers D'Qwell Jackson and Eric Barton. Their replacements are a couple of rookies.

There's no chance of Baltimore taking Cleveland lightly either, not looking up at Cincinnati in the division and being on the Monday night stage. The Ravens have covered the past eight times they've faced a team with a losing record.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

dave malinsky
NCAAB Top of the Ticket

Pennsylvania Quakers(+23.5) over VILLANOVA WILDCATS

4* #513 PENN over VILLANOVA

Here’s the thing about Big Five basketball--the wider the gap is between the teams, the better we have seen some of the underdogs perform through the years. It makes all the sense in the world. A bad Philly team can make a name for themselves by throwing everything they have at the heavily favored opponent, while any time a team is laying more than 20 points in one of these games it means that they are at playing at an altitude that brings much more intriguing targets ahead. And that is exactly what we have here. First, Penn is not a bad team. The Quakers suffered through an injury-riddled 2008-09 in which five key cogs were unavailable most of the way, but now it becomes a veteran group with returning starters Tyler Bernadini, Zack Rosen and Jack Eggleston, and with SRs Andres Schreiber and Darren Smith are healthy and in the starting lineup again. In reality, consider it to be returning starters at all positions, and Mike Howlett showed in 16 bench minutes at Penn State on Friday night that he is at full health ready to be a major contributor as well. This should be the most improved teams in the Ivy League this winter, and note that the 70-55 non-cover at Penn State on Friday night was not nearly as bad as the score shows the final margin was the biggest of the game, and Penn was hampered by early foul trouble for Bernadini (only eight minutes in the first half), and an awful 5-23 from 3-point range. But that all works in our favor in terms of setting this line value up, while also giving them a road game under their belts vs. a quality opponent. This is not really a road game, of course, with a short late afternoon bus ride to the Pavillion, and plenty of Penn fans in attendance. But they are not running into a buzz saw of a crowd here anyway, nor an intense Villanova team. Off of LYs run to the Final Four there is absolutely no sense of urgency for Jay Wright and his team. They know that they are capable of making a similar run this season, and as such games like this are merely a way to tune up before the long and grinding Big East road ahead, and then March dance steps. But creating a unique distraction tonight is the fact that the players will take the court with their bags already packed for their upcoming trip to San Juan, where they open the Puerto Rico Tip-Off on Thursday afternoon vs. George Mason. This can be a special team later, but not yet, with the loss of Dante Cunningham and Dwayne Anderson taking away some significant glue players from last spring’s chemistry-laden surge, and SR starter Reggie Redding is also suspended. There are enough pieces on hand here for a comfortable win, but neither the cohesion nor the sense of purpose to get near this high spread.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

From a friend of IWS

Game: Baltimore at Cleveland (Monday 11/16 8:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Cleveland +11.5 (-110) (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The Browns have not been impressive offensively. In fact they have been downright awful. But this is a situation that backs them. They are coming off a bye and getting double-digits at home from a team that has shown some weaknesses. We watched Tampa Bay come off a bye as a 10 point underdog and beat the Packers outright, scoring more points than they have in 121 regular season games in the process. This week we watched the anemic Rams offense that averaged under 10 points per game score the most points they have scored all season against the Saints. The Rams were also off a bye. Weak teams coming off a bye tend to play their best game of the year, and when getting 5+ points they are 32-6 ATS over the last 38 such games. The Ravens have not looked as good defensively this season as they did a year ago. They are 1-3 on the road this season, giving up 26 points per game. They have dropped four of their last five overall. The Ravens have not done well in Cleveland, despite the fact the Browns for the most part have been a weak team over the past five years. Baltimore is just 2-3 here in the last five years, and have never won during this span by more than 10 points. They have actually been outscored overall by 24 points. This looks ugly I am backing the home division double-digit dog, coming off a bye.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

tony weston

Tony Weston MONDAY'S PLAYS 20 Dime Ravens
5 Dime Ravens-Browns Under

Ravens at Browns
RAVENS - After failing to cover against the Browns in five straight meetings, the Baltimore Ravens have owned Cleveland in each of their last three matchups.

The Ravens swept the season series last year and destroyed the Browns when they met back September, cruising to an easy 34-3 victory as a 13 1/2 point favorite.

The Ravens will make it 4 straight covers and 4 consecutive wins SU against Cleveland.

n this current 3-game win streak against Cleveland the Ravens have beaten the Browns by an average of by about 20 points per game (33-13.3).

Also consider that coming into this game the Browns are just 3-5 ATS this year and have failed to cover in each of their last 2 games as they’ve lost by an average of 26 points per game (30.5-4.5).

Also, at home this year Cleveland is losing by 15 points per game (29.3-14.3).

Things won’t get any better tonight as the Ravens will cruise to an easy victory.


Ravens-Browns Total
UNDER - When these two played in September the Total for that game was set at 38 1/2 points and they stayed Under that number, scoring 37 points.

Tonight, with the Total set at about 39 points, these two are staying Under the Total again.

Consider that coming into this game the Browns have stayed Under the total in 5 of their last 7 games, while the Ravens have seen the Under go 4-2 their last 6 games, including each of the last two.

Scoring will be at a premium again tonight as they stay Under the Total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

redd

20 dimes Blazers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

RAS

1 unit - Hofstra -6.5, TCU -1
1.5 Unit - Fullerton +17

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

Tim Trushel
20* cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

Nick parsons

NFL
Baltimore vs. Cleveland
8:35 EST

For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the large home dog as I look for Cleveland to do just enough to sneak away with an ATS victory:

The Ravens have struggled mightily since beating the Browns earlier in the year, and I'm expecting another small "let-down" this evening. After opening with three wins, Baltimore (4-4) hardly appears set to make a run at a second straight AFC championship game appearance. The Ravens lost three straight before defeating previously unbeaten Denver 30-7 on Nov. 1, only to lose 17-7 to Cincinnati last Sunday.

One of the biggest reasons for the Ravens recent decline has been the sub-par performance of its defense; Baltimore gave up a total of 369 yards versus the Bengals and has allowed more than 400 three times, something it hadn’t done since 2006.

Joe Flacco has also struggled of late; Flacco threw two INTs last Sunday after going two straight games without one and had a season-low 56.3 completion % (18 of 32).

Remember, Baltimore is just 1-4 SU its last five overall and 1-4 SU its last five on the road.

On the other side of the field: Coming out of their bye-week, Eric Mangini said he would like to stick with Brady Quinn for the rest of the season, and has been impressed with his work ethic since being demoted.

Quinn takes over an offense that ranks 30th in the league, but the young QB remains positive and seems focused coming out of the bye: “I’m excited to play,” Quinn said. “I’m excited to be a part of Monday night. Every team in the NFL is tough, them especially. We’ve got our hands full right now.”

Cleveland has history on its side though; the Browns always play the Ravens tough as they are 4-1 ATS their last five vs. Baltimore in front of the home town crowd.

Bottom line: The Browns have to be patient and rely on their special teams; but with the recent lapse in play on both sides of the ball the last few weeks by the Ravens, and coming off their bye-week, Cleveland will look to keep this one close down the stretch; look for the BROWNS to improve to 4-2 ATS against conference opponents while Baltimore falls to 1-3 ATS vs. division opponents!

*9* BROWNS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

Tom Freese--Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

Spartan--Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

ATS
3unit Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-16-09

Bob Balfe

Ravens/Browns UNDER 39

Cleveland was crushed earlier in the season by the Ravens and I just don’t see how they will be able to score as their offense has been horrible. The Ravens Defense has struggled this season, but on MNF will rise to the occasion. The Browns will have to do a better job stopping the run if they have any shot to win tonight. Cleveland will want to turn this into a low scoring affair. This total set at 39 has a good Under Value. Take the Under.