11-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Marc Lawrence - CFB

Central Michigan by 18

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Karl Garrett 20 DIMER - BALL STATE CARDINALS.....10 DIMER - NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS 20 DIMER - BALL STATE CARDINALS

No doubt Dan LeFevour and his Central Michigan mates are going to win this game, but this one will be closer than expected as a couple of factors play into backing Ball State as the double-digit home dog.

For one thing, Ball State gave a very solid Northern Illinois team all they could last week on the road in a 26-20 loss, but cover as the double-digit dog. The Cards have gone 5-2 this season against the spread as the underdog, and I see no reason they won't improve to 6-2 with the points tonight.

Speaking of Northern Illinois, that is who the Chippewas have up next at home, and that could very well decide the MAC West Division crown, so as you can see, the Chipps could be looking ahead just a bit.

This is Central's 4th road game in the last 5 weeks, and I don't care what you say, that has got to take its toll eventually.

Finally, Central Michigan was 0-3-1 against the spread last season as a road favorite, and while they are 2-1 in that role this season, tonight's win will NOT be by the required impost.

Take the points.

10 DIMER - NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Deja Vu?

Last November these schools played at Butler, with the Bulldogs winning it 57-53 as the 4-point favorite.

Similar price tonight, but this time the game is being played in Evanston, and Bill Carmoody's Wildcats are a better team this go'round.

Both schools opened their seasons with wins, but I am highly impressed with the 'Cats 77-55 thumping of Northern Illinois. Remember, this is a Northwestern team that did upset both Michigan State, and Purdue last season in conference play!

Early "signature" win acoming for the Wildcats tonight. Take the points!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Kyle Bales

NCAAFB

Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) Redhawks

Write-up:

We played against this Buffalo team their last game (15* Ohio Bobcats
+3.5 and 10* ML +110), WR Naaman Roosevelt, their leading receiver,
had 165 yards in the game and scored three touchdowns. He will be out
for the Bulls tonight and I don't see this offense going anywhere. The
Miami (OH) Redhawks are ranked 90 on offense, averaging 339.7 yards
per game, 68.3 yards rushing and 271.5 yards passing so far this
season. Redhawks QB Zac Dysert simply had a bad game last week. Dysert
turned the ball over four times in the game, including three
interceptions. However Dysert was coming off a great three-game
stretch. In his previous game, he passed for 426 yards in a loss Nov.
5 at Temple. The only player at Miami to throw for more yards in a
game was Ben Roethlisberger, who did it three times. Dysert threw for
1,118 yards, seven touchdowns and one interception in his three
previous games coming into the Bowling Green contest. Against Temple,
he led Miami from an 18-point deficit in the fourth quarter to take a
lead before the Owls rallied to win. Miami’s defensive in the loss
last week was credible despite the lopsided score. The RedHawks held
the Falcons to 349 yards of total offense and recovered two fumbles.
Bowling Green’s offense came into the game averaging almost 400 yards
a game. Don't get me wrong, both of these teams are bad. But with
Buffalo's main weapon out, I love the Redhawks at home tonight!

Prediciton:

Buffalo - 17

Miami (OH) - 24

Play On:

15* Miami (OH) +3.5

10* Miami ML +160


Honorable Mention:

Ball St. +14.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

RAS

Rotation 0530 Central Michigan (-1) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 04:00pm PST Released at: 8:06:00am PST

Rotation 0552 SE Missouri State (+5.5) 1.00 UNIT
Game start: 05:00pm PST Released at: 8:03:30am PST

Rotation 0546 Loyola Marymount (-2.5) 2.00 UNIT
Game start: 08:00pm PST Released at: 8:01:00am PST

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Wunderdog

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I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Florida at Buffalo (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo -210 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.4)

The Sabres are out of the gate fast and have caught fire as they have raced to three straight wins, and have won seven of their last nine at home. They have been playing great defense, and getting superb net play as the Sabres have allowed two goals or less in 12 of their 17 games thus far. The Panthers have played three straight shootouts, losing the most recent one, and already own a 5-2 setback at home to the Sabres this season, which runs the losing skid against Buffalo to four straight. Overall, they have just one win to show for their last seven trips to Buffalo. The Sabres have it going, and this foe has not proved to be on their level of late. Buffalo gets the call here.
Game: Dallas at Detroit (7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Dallas +150 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.5)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 +100 (risk 3 to win 3)

The Red Wings are no easy out at home as they stand at 71-1 for the season, with the only loss a game that was deemed a home game in Sweden. The Stars however, seem to find a way of staying in the game against everyone, with five games already ending via the shootout and three others decided in OT. Lately that has been ringing even more true with each of the last five being decided by a single goal. The games have all been tight, not allowing more than three in any of them, or scoring more than three. What the Stars have going for them is that they have been a thorn in Detroit's side as Dallas has won five of the last seven meetings between these two, so they will come here with confidence. They have played good, crisp hockey of late with all five of their last five games going UNDER. Detroit is 19-9-4 to the UNDER off of three or more days rest in their last 32. I like Dallas and the UNDER here.
Game: Dallas at Detroit (7:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Dallas +1.5 goals -205 (puckline) (risk 5 to win 2.4)

The Dallas Stars have been playing tight games all season long, and even more so lately with all five of their most recent games decided by a single goal. They have also done as well as anyone against Detroit as they have won five of the last seven meetings outright, and that includes all three played between these clubs last year. Getting the plus side of the puckline in this situation carries some value, so the Stars get the call on the puckline.
Game: Phoenix at Minnesota (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Minnesota -140 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.1)

The Minnesota Wild certainly need to get themselves straightened out on the road where they are a disappointing 2-9-2. They take on a completely different look at home where they stand at 5-2. The scoring has been awful on the road where they have averaged just over two goals per game, but at home they have elevated that by just about a full goal scoring three per contest. The Coyotes started very fast, but their recent play has not been on the same level. This is a team that has gone from outscoring their first 13 opponents by 10 goals, to one that has been outscored by eight in their last seven. That is almost a two-goal change in team performance. The Wild has been a bear at home as their last 12 on home ice as a favorite has produced 10 wins, so I'll go with Minnesota here.
Game: Colorado at Edmonton (9:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Edmonton -130 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.3)

The Avalanche has been the early surprise in the NHL. After finishing dead last in the Western Conference with 69 points a year ago, they opened this season with a bang, but have decidedly slipped back to '08-09 form recently. The Avalanche has now dropped three of four for the first time all season, and has allowed 18 goals in the process. When they were playing with the hot-hand, they handed Edmonton a 3-0 loss on the road, but the start of the slide began with a loss at home to Edmonton 5-3. The Avalanche certainly hasn't taken advantage of playing a team with a losing record at just 9-22 in their last 31. The Oilers meanwhile, are taking the money as a favorite from -110 to -150 to a 27-10 mark in their last 37. Edmonton gets the call.
Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Philadelphia -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 +105 (risk 5 to win 5.3)

The Flyers went flat for awhile after opening the season with three wins, but are surging now having dropped just a 3-2 decision to Buffalo in their last seven games. The three goals allowed to Buffalo represent the only team able to wiggle more than two pucks through the net during the seven-game stretch. The Kings have had to fight for everything they have gotten lately with a pair of shootout wins in their last two outings, but this is a team that has lost by two goals or more in three of their last six. The offense has been flat producing just 13 in the six games, or just about two per night. This is the Kings fourth game in six days, and they have played UNDER in four of the last five in that situation, and four of the last five in this series have as well. One team is getting great net play, the other is struggling to score. I'll go with Philadelphia and the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

malinsaky oklahoma city 12.5 4*

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Wunderdog Horse Selections

AQUEDUCT Race #4 at 1:50 PM Eastern

Top pick: #7 (DISTANT STRIKE) - Runs second back off a layoof and at a new low in price. Speed/stalker is working well and gets "blinkers off" this afternoon. The top pick.

2nd pick: #5 (Peacefields) - Logical contender has finished second in his last pair at this tag in "switched" contests. It's Mott and Dominguez combining and this colt looks well meant.

3rd pick: #9 (Tramezzini) - Runs second off a Steve Asmussen claim and a subsequent nine month break. Well-bet in both starts he comes back quickly (19 days) for his second back off the long break.

4th pick: #3 (Verveitup) - Goes second off a 70-day layoff and moves back to the turf. Blinkers are added and think he'll do well at nice odds.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

doc
NBA

3-Unit Play #509 Take Oklahoma City +12 ½ Over Orlando (7 p.m. EST, Wednesday)




3-Unit Play #513 Take LA Clippers/Memphis OVER 199 (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday)




6-Unit Play (NBA Game of the Month) #517 Take New Jersey/Milwaukee UNDER 187 (8 p.m. EST, Wednesday)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Ferringo

3.5-Unit Play. Take #541 Nebraska (-1) over St. Louis (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 18)


2.5-Unit Play. Take #537 Butler (-4.5) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 18)


2-Unit Play. Take #551 Arkansas State (-5) over SE Missouri State (8 p.m., Wed., Nov. 18)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #539 Utah State (+3) over Utah (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 18)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #527 VCU (-6.5) over Western Michigan (7 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 18)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #535 Kent State (-3) over Youngstown State (7:30 p.m., Wed., Nov. 18)


1-Unit Play. Take #533 Cornell (-3) over Massachusetts (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 18)


2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #527 VCU (-1.5) over Western Michigan (7 p.m.) AND Take #543 UNLV (-1.5) over Nevada (10:30 p.m.)


1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #539 Utah State (+8) over Utah (8 p.m.) AND Take #537 Butler (+0.5) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Wednesday, Nov. 18)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Randall the Handle

NHL

MINNESOTA -½ +1.15 over Phoenix Pinnacle
The Wild return home from a four-game trip but unlike years gone by, teams returning home from a trip are not coming up lame and the Wild are in no position to take a night off after losing three straight. Two of those games went into OT and as a result of that the Wild have picked up points in six of its last eight games. Furthermore, they own the Coyotes at the Excel Energy Center, as they’ve beaten Phoenix seven straight games there and have outscored them 27-9 over that stretch dating back to ’06. Against the Wild, Ilya Bryzgalov has a 1-7 record, a GAA of 3.42 and a save percentage of .891. As for the Coyotes, well, they’re in somewhat of a funk with just two wins in its last eight and a slew of significant injuries. The Coyotes have three of its top defensemen out and not only do they lose their talents but they lose their grit as well. The Wild have always been a damn good home team and in fact, they’ve won eight of its last 10 at home. Minnesota is playing a lot better these days despite the three-game losing streak. They come to play almost every night and after a brutal first period against the Canes and falling victim to the Canes, one would expect a big bounce back tonight. Play: Minnesota -½ +1.15 (Risking 2 units).


NBA

MEMPHIS –5 over L.A. Clippers Pinnacle
One really has to wonder how the Clip Joint is going to compete tonight. They appeared gassed and completely subdued last night after losing to the Hornets for the second time in eight days. Now they’ll travel again to play its third game in four nights and the tail end of back-to-backs. Furthermore, they lost Kareem Rush and he joins guards Eric Gordon and Blake Griffin and now the Clippers have nobody to run the offense. This team is mentally and physically fatigued and they’ll play a rested Memphis team that’s coming off a win. One win does wonders to team moral and the Iverson distraction is now a thing of the past as well. What you can count on is a Grizz team that should absolutely dominate the boards and play to its potential. This is a highly talented team off to a bad start and they couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent to make it two straight. Play: Memphis –5 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

MILWAUKEE/New Jersey under 189 Pinnacle
Focus for the Bucks could be way off tonight after facing Denver, Dallas and Golden State and then playing an 0-11 team at home. The Bucks have won five of six and this looks like a “breather” game for them and might be treated as such. Furthermore, after playing that trio of very up-tempo games in which all three games exceeded this total by 20 points or more, the line here is a bit enticing but be very cautious. You see, Dallas, Denver and the Warriors play a run and gun style so it’s no surprise those three games went over. In fact, the books posted a total of 193 against Dallas and now this game is just four points lower? The Nets can barely hit 80 points against anyone and they’re very aware that they’re not going to outscore anyone in an up-tempo game; no way, no how. So either the books were way off in their Dallas/Milwaukee total or they’re way off here. You make the call. Play: Milwaukee/New Jersey under 189 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Bryan Leonard 11/18

Bryan Leonard's NCAA Hoops Steamroller

533 Cornell at Massachusetts

The Minutemen are a young squad with just one senior and three juniors on the roster. They were very impatient in their opening season loss at Central Florida and we can see a repeat here. Only one player over 6'4" saw significant minutes against the Golden Knights and that could be a problem here against a veteran Cornell squad with a 7 footer in the middle.

The Big Red return all 5 starters from a very good team from a year ago. They just beat Alabama on the road for their first win over an SEC squad in 40 years. They will not be intimidated by the Mullins Center crowd tonight. As opposed to the Minutemen Cornell has just three underclassmen on the roster. Four players average 14 points or more so you can't focus on just one scorer defensively.
We'll gladly back the better team who has shown the ability to win on the road as opposed to a young team trying to find themselves.

PLAY CORNELL

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

ATS LOCK CLUB AND TOTALS
3 on Ball St +15.5
3 on the over 52 Buf/mia gm

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Jeff Benton
Wednesday's College Football winner ... 15 Dime: BALL STATE (plus the points vs. Central Michigan)


Ball State

Don’t be fooled by Ball State’s 1-9 record. The Cardinals have been playing much better football since the start of October. They were competitive in losses to Toledo (37-30 at home), Temple (24-19 on the road), Ohio (20-17 at home) and Northern Illinois (26-20 on the road), covering the pointspread in the latter three. Keep in mind that Temple (8-2 overall, 6-0 in the MAC) and Ohio (7-3, 5-1 in the MAC) are the top two teams in the MAC’s East Division, while Northern Illinois (7-3, 5-1 in the MAC) is second to Central Michigan in the West Division. So Ball State lost to three of the league’s top four teams by a total of 14 points, and two of those games were on the road … and tonight, the Cardinals are catching that exact number (two touchdowns) at home against the MAC’s best team, Central Michigan.

Now, ordinarily, I’d still have tough time going against Central Michigan even at this price, simply because the Chippewas are very clearly the class of the MAC. But this is a very unique situation, and here’s why: Next week, Central Michigan hosts Northern Illinois, and no matter happens in this game tonight, the Chippewas at the very least will be playing for the division title next week. And if Northern Illinois loses at Ohio on Saturday – a very distinct possibility – then a simple victory tonight gives Central Michigan the division crown.

The point: There’s a very, very good chance that the Chippewas sleepwalk through this game tonight – or at the very least, play things close to the vest and make sure they leave Ball State healthy just in case next week’s game against Northern Illinois does have meaning. At the same time, is there any reason to think the Cardinals won’t come to play? Just like they came to play against Temple, Northern Illinois and Ohio? Of course they’ll come to play. After all, it’s Ball State’s final home game … it’s on national TV … it’s against the league’s best team … and it is, basically, the Cardinals’ bowl game. You better believe they’re showing up fully focused, fully motivated and with a throw-caution-to-the-wind game plan.

One more to factor to consider: Central Michigan is hitting the road for the fourth time in its last five games, fifth time in its last seven games and the seventh time in 11 games this season. In those six previous road outings, the Chippewas have four wins and two losses. The two losses were double-digit defeats, while the four victories came by 2, 7, 11 and 14 points. Doesn’t seem all that far-fetched that Ball State can stay within two touchdowns, now does it?

Throw in the fact that the Cardinals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when catching 10½ points or more and 4-0 ATS in their last four as a home underdog in that price range, and this pointspread becomes even more enticing.

Bottom line: I know the records suggest otherwise, but because of the unique circumstances – a meaningless game for Central Michigan; a fired-up Ball State team playing its final home game on national TV – I have little doubt this is going to be a competitive ball game from start to finish. And while I do believe Central Michigan will pull away late walk off with a win, I’m also certain Ball State will stay within this spread the entire way. Take the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-18-09

Spartans NBA plays:

1* Ind -6.5
1* Mem -5
1* Hou -6