11-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

ferringo 11/19

5-Unit Play. Take #734 Ohio State (+2.5) over North Carolina (9:20 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)
Note: This is my Game of the Week. Bump up to a 5.5-Unit Play.

I think this time it happens. Ohio State wins. By a lot.


2-Unit Play. Take #737 Eastern Kentucky (+16) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)
Note: Play at +14.5 and bump to +2.5-Unit Play. We don't change our lines after they are posted, but I have noticed that this line has moved since I posted it.


2-Unit Play. Take #721 Boston (+16) over Kansas State (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)
Note: Play at +15 and bump to 2.5-Unit Play. We don't change our lines after they are posted, but I have noticed that this line has moved since I posted it.


2-Unit Play. Take #725 UNC-Wilmington (+12) over Penn State (4 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)
Note: Play at +11.5. We don't change our lines after they are posted, but I have noticed that this line has moved since I posted it.


2-Unit Play. Take #720 Mississippi (-9) over Indiana (5 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)
Note: Lower to 1.5-Unit Play if you can't get better than -10.5. This game should be a blowout, but that's a pretty significant movement after I have posted.


1.5-Unit Play. Take #732 California (-2) over Syracuse (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #727 South Florida (-1) over Davidson (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #707 Richmond (-4.5) over William & Mary (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 19)


1-Unit Play. Take #709 Long Beach State (+15.5) over Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., Thurs., Nov. 19)


Note: Because of some line movements the teaser spreads I have here may not match up with your own. Play what you have at your books, even if they don't match up. I like all of the sides that we are on. If there are grading issues and if the line movements come into play then we will deal with it then.

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #720 Mississippi (-4) over Indiana (5 p.m.) AND Take #734 Ohio State (+7.5) over North Carolina (9:20 p.m.)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #724 Miami (-6) over Tulane (1:30 p.m.) AND Take #725 UNC-Wilmington (+17) over Penn State (4 p.m.)

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #709 Long Beach State (+20.5) over Notre Dame (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #729 LaSalle (+12) over South Carolina (9:30 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #707 Richmond (Pk) over William & Mary (7 p.m.) AND Take #721 Boston (+20.5) over Kansas State (7:30 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
5* W ise guy Big 12 T OTA L OF THE M ONTH on Colorado/Oklahoma State UNDER 47.5(-105 at 5dimes)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Chris Jordan Thursday's winners ...
200? CALIFORNIA GODLEN BEARS - Not too worried about this long trek across the country, not when the Bears are a real threat in the Pac 10, and not when they're coming into the season with a wealth of talent and slew of experience. Tonight you'll see that on national television, while you'll also see the trouble Jimmy Boeheim is going to have this season, in getting his troops going during non-conference play.

Sure, the Orangemen are 2-0. But they beat up on Albany, 75-43, and Robert Morris, 100-60. Not exactly the competition Boeheim's young guns will see tonight. And since they've been idle since the past eight days, this could get out of hand early.

I'll say this about this year's version of the Golden Bears, if they were a team from Southern California there's a good chance the coaches would have picked it unanimously to win the league title. But the Bears are from Berkeley, and not since Jason Kidd starred inside Haas Pavilion have the Bears received the respect they deserve this season.

Four starters back, a solid bench, more than 90 percent of last year's scoring back and all-conference candidates ... Cal is my choice as the team to beat in the Pacific 10. And without the matched production, experience or backcourt skill, the Orangemen are going to suffer tonight.

100? CAROLINA PANTHERS - Call this a must-win for both teams, an elimination game if you will, and at this point I trust the Panthers more than I do a team that just lost to the Buccaneers a couple weeks back. The Dolphins will be without the master of the wildcat, Ronnie Brown, who is gone for the season because of a foot injury. Carolina has a much better chance to balance things out on offense, as quarterback Jake Delhomme has improved tremendously since the start of the season, when he looked like a quarterback who needed his receivers to wear jerseys that read "I'm on your team Jake!" Tonight I expect him to pick apart Miami's rookie cornerbacks, Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, to open up the Dolphins' defense. And when the Panthers turn to the ground game, they'll have the third-ranked rushing offense in the NFL rolling through the trenches. This is going to be simple, as the Panthers get his done.

???NOTE - If the Panthers line climbs to 3-1/2, be sure to buy the hook down to a field goal and lay only -3 points. If your bookmaker has a -3 on the game, feel free to go down to 2-1/2 - that's exactly what I did. I think the Panthers win this by at least a touchdown, but better to be safe!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Dave Malinsky 11/19

Top of the Ticket - Bulls/Lakers

UNDER 195,LOS ANGELES LAKERS -vs-Chicago Bulls

4* #706 L.A. LAKERS/CHICAGO Under

The return of Pau Gasol is being treated much differently by the betting markets than the oddsmakers ? we have seen an opening Total of 190 climb all the way to 195. And that brings excellent value for our purposes. Are the Lakers a better offensive team with Gasol on board? Of course. But they are also much better defensively, especially with Phil Jackson opting to go with him at the #4 spot tonight, leaving Andrew Bynum at #5 and creating a ?Twin Towers? presence inside. With those two protecting the basket, and Kobe Bryant and Ron Artest aggressive on the perimeter, this can become one of the best defenses in the NBA once they get a chance to jell. It is also a defense that will cause huge headaches for the Bulls, who are 27th on our best offensive charts through 10 games, and who will see Luol Deng locked up by Artest and John Salmons by Bryant, leaving Derrick Rose with nowhere to go with the ball. Chicago is defending tenaciously, however. They are all the way up to #3 on our best charts and when you consider that they have already faced the Celtics, Cavaliers, Spurs (with all hands on deck), Nuggets and Heat the numbers have a legitimacy. In addition to those playoff-bound opponents they also played Toronto, which rates #1 on offense so far this season. They bring an excellent work ethic on that end of the court, and it helps having good wingspans at every position in the starting lineup. They will struggle to score tonight, but will also make the Lakers work hard for everything they can get, and in what is a well-positioned road game (this will only be the second game in five nights, and they are off tomorrow) their tenacity helps to set a sluggish flow to this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

oe Cravino
Todays Member Play: I. NHL Hockey:
OVER 5 (-110)
New Jersey Devils/Nashville Predators
Game time is @8:05pm ET.

II. NCAA & NFL Football: 4 Team 13pt Teaser (-130)
1. Colorado Buffaloes +30 CFB @7:45pm ET.
2. Oklahoma St. Cowboys -4 CFB @7:45pm ET.
3. Miami Dolphins +16 NFL @8:20pm ET.
4. OVER 30 Dolphins/Panthers NFL @8:20pm ET.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Spartan

Triple-Dime bet

379 Oregon -5.5 (-110) vs 380 Arizona

Analysis: Last time the Oregon Ducks ventured into Tucson was not a good outcome to say the least. It was 2007 and high hopes were dashed as quarterback Dennis Dixon went down, Brady Leaf came in and the rest is history. The Ducks will have some redemption on their minds and I'm betting they get it. Some might look for an Arizona rebound from last weeks loss at Cal but I just like the way this Ducks team is playing right now a lot more. Mike Stoops has built a sound defense and DE Ricky Elmore is the real deal but the Ducks can score a ton of points and in a hurry. I'd be real surprised if the Wildcats can keep pace. I know Stoops ha‡s his kids eyeing a Pac 10 title but the fact is Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the country right now. The Ducks offense, which is very fake heavy, is one of the most difficult in college football for teams to defend. This Oregon squad is a salty bunch that has played in more big games than Arizona and been battle tested. I suspect they will deal with the ESPN Gameday drama and hype better that the home guys. I've looked at this game from every angle, talked with a few different sources I trust a great deal. I'm ready to declare it, my one and only college game of the year is the Oregon Ducks, see them taking this thing by a couple of touchdowns.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Docs NBA

2-Unit Play #701 Take Phoenix/New Orleans OVER 214 (8 p.m. EST, Thursday)
Gone are the days where you would look for under plays on the Hornets because of their great defense. This team just stinks this season and they are giving up 105 points per game this season. They have given up more than 100 in three of four games, and the only one when they didn’t was against Portland, a team that forces opponents to play a half court game. They gave up more than 120 in two of those games, and one was to this same Phoenix club. We see a big offensive night for the Suns tonight on national TV against a porous defense and expect them to get 110+ and the Hornets will make up the rest to get this one over the total. The Suns have allowed 100 or more in five straight games and in almost all their games this season and even without Chris Paul the Hornets will be able to put some points on the board and this tempo will be fast throughout. Six of the last seven meetings have gone over and we see this one playing out that was as well.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

ATS LOCK CLUB and TOTALS
3 on Car -3
3 on the under 48 Col/Ok.st Gm

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Tim Trushel
over carolina- miami / regular play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

CRAIG DAVIS

30 DIME

WINNER #3

IN A ROW



Panthers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Stephen Nover
Thursday night ...
15 Dime PANTHERS
5 Dime UNDER Dolphins/Panthers

NOTE: I promised a strong performance following losses on my top Sunday NFL plays and so far I'm a perfect 5-0 this week.

I'm involved today in the Dolphins-Panthers matchup, both on the side and total, although I do not recommend a parlay. I'm passing on the Colorado-Oklahoma State matchup , but have a free selection on the Bulls-Lakers.

Now, on this Panthers game, I notice the moneyline is climbing if you lay -3 points. Tells me it could go to 3-1/2. In the event your book has a 3-1/2, buyy the hook down to a field goal. DON'T GET BEAT BY THE HOOK.

15 Dime PANTHERS - The timing is right for Carolina in this matchup. The Panthers have more talent than the Dolphins, are rounding into shape having won and covered four of their last six games and catch Miami in a bad situational spot.

The Dolphins have had a rough last four weeks. They blew a 24-10 lead at home four weeks in a loss to the Saints. They then split division road games beating the Jets and losing to the Patriots. Then last week they had to come from behind to edge Tampa Bay with 10 seconds left.

The victory against the Bucs, though, was costly for the Dolphins. Ronnie Brown is out. That not only takes away Miami's best runner, but also the key player in its wildcat formation. The early turnaround limits Miami's preparation to formulate a good game plan minus Brown.

Quarterback Chad Henne isn't advanced enough at this early juncture of his career to make enough downfield plays to overcome Brown's loss. Next to the Cleveland Browns, the Dolphins might have the worst set of wide receivers in the league.

Carolina ranks 12th in total defense and has the fourth-best pass defense. The Panthers have held six of their last seven foes to 21 or fewer points.

Carolina's problem for much of the season has been the terrible play and turnovers of Jake Delhomme, who has thrown 13 interceptions. But Delhomme has become more of a game manager handing the ball off to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. This is one of the better running back tandems in the NFL. Delhomme has finally figured out not to get in their way.

The Panthers have rushed for 270, 182 and 185 yards in their last three games and Delhomme hasn't thrown an interception during this span while tossing three touchdowns. Delhomme will be able to pick his spots against a youthful Dolphins secondary as the Panthers bash the Dolphins with their third-ranked ground attack.

5 Dime UNDER Dolphins/Panthers - This is a matchup featuring two ground-oriented clubs with two conservative coaches.

Dolphins coach Tony Sparano does not want to take chances with his young quarterback, Chad Henne, nor does Carolina coach John Fox want to risk an interception with his turnover-prone quarterback, Jake Delhomme. Henne only has two touchdown passes in the last four games.

The Dolphins are without their best weapon, running back Ronnie Brown. That makes their wildcat formation much easier to defend. The short practice week makes it difficult to adjust without Brown and limits any tricks or new plays.

Carolina suffered a key offensive injury, too, last week. Out is star left tackle Jordan Gross. He was the Panthers' best offensive lineman. Pass rushing star Joey Porter is back for Miami. He can take advantage of Gross' absence to wreak havoc.

The Saints were the Panthers' only opponent to score more than 21 points in the last seven games against them.

I see the Dolphins feeding Ricky Williams the ball 35 times while Carolina also has a lopsided margin of running plays compared to passes. That means the clock keeps moving and this total stays under.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Coach Ron Meyer

5*
Panthers (-3) over Dolphins

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Mike Lineback 11/19

Premium Selections

[306] 4* Carolina Panthers -3 -125 | 8:20p ET
Both teams' run and defend the run well but will will give edge to Carolina with Miami's best running Ronnie Brown out for season. Brown loss is key because he has been central to Dolphins success in The "Wildcat" formation. Strongly believe Miami will miss him tonight. Also, will give Carolina considerable edge in passing game. Panthers, have more playmakers with veteran wideouts Muhsin Muhammad & Steve Smith & DeAngelo Williams coming out of the backfield. Plus, Delhomme, more than capable, of having a "monster" game. Delhomme, is playing more under control and will be facing the #27 pass defense in league, spearheaded by two rookie cornerbacks?? Miami pass D among league leaders in giving up big plays. They have allowed, 32 plays of 20+ yds & 9 plays over 40+ yds. Don't be suprised if Smith, way overdue, has one of his patented dominating performances. If not, at least make enough plays to set up some valuable points. On the flip side, Carolina defend the pass well. The 4th best pass defense, were particularly impressive in pass coverage vs. Atlanta last week. With Brown out, Miami inexperienced QB Henne should have hard time finding anything open downfield. Both Camarillo & Ginn Jr. lack the skills to stretch the field & make consistent plays to move the chains. Will give slight edge to Miami in special teams' but hoping Carolina homefield will neutralize any Dolphins advantage. Only "wildcat" for Carolina is Jake Delhomme. However, predicting big game from Delhomme under the Thursday night lights. If not, logic says, Carolina still have enough edges to get the cover on their home turf.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Ras cbb



These are their Sides. They are much better at Totals, or have been in the past.

Richmond -5

Rice +4.5

Montana +4

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Seabass



50* Rider
50* Mississippi

20* 7pt teaser Miami/under
50* Miami

50* Spurs
100* Steam - Phx/NO over

50* Stl (NHL)