11-19-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Brandon Lang
Thursday's Selection ...
Note:

Last night is the way it's supposed to be.

My big TV in the middle had Central Michigan killing Ball State, the one on the bottom right had Utah State battling Utah, and the bottom right had Atlanta pulling away from the Heat in the 4th quarter.

Almost at the exact same time, LeFevour hits Brown for an 82 yard touchdown pass, Joe Johnson hits a big 3, and Utah State takes a halftime lead against Utah.

The night ended with the Hawks easily covering, CMU burying Ball State 100% the way I predicted it, and the gambling gods saw fit to give me a 3 at the buzzer with Utah State.

All adds up to a 3-0 sweep heading into tonights action.

In a good rhythm right now as evidenced by this weeknight college run and the overall NFL run.

Can't argue with the 10-3-1 run in college football Tuesday thru Friday the last 5 weeks. Can't argue with the 8-1-1 run in the NFL the last 2 weeks.

Howl at the moon all you want about Brandon Lang this and Brandon Lang that, but the fact of the matter is I am hot right now. Sizzling hot, and I aim to keep it that way the rest of the year.

Now here is why the Dolphins cover the number tonight.

10 DIME - MIAMI DOLPHINS - (if line is 3, you buy the 1/2 to 3 1/2) - The bottom line is this.

If the Panthers can't run the football against the Dolphins what does that mean?

It means Jake "I love to throw interceptions" Delhomme will have to beat Miami with his arm. Advantage Miami.

Now the AFC and NFC have faced off 29 times this year, with the AFC being a road dog on 11 of those occasions. Guess what the ATS number is?

AFC 7-4 ATS.

Both teams are going to try and run the football and get in play action situations, but for my dollar I believe the Dolphins are going to have more success doing that.

I feel Miami has the better run defense and the numbers show just that allowing less than a 100 yards, while the Panthers give up close to 130.

I know the Panthers have played very well as of late but just when you think you have this team figured out, good old Jake implodes. I am not going to be on the wrong side of that implosion tonight.

If he plays a great game and beats me, so be it. I will take my loss like a man and move on to College football, NBA, and college hoops on Friday and get ready for the weekend.

People are making a big deal out of the loss of Ronnie Brown and I believe it will hurt Miami to a certain degree, but over the last 4 weeks Ricky Williams has actually run for more yards.

I am more impressed with the Dolphins body of work this year as a whole than I am with Carolina as is my feeling the AFC is the superior conference over the NFC, and any time I can get points with the AFC in a battle like this I will gladly take them.

I've maintained for years that when dealing with the Carolina Panthers you go with them as an underdog and against them as a favorite.

Look at this year. Carolina has been favored twice this year and they failed to cover the number both times.

At home versus the Redskins they were laying anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5 and won by 20-17 in a game they should have lost, and 2 games later laying 7 at home to Buffalo they lost 20-9 as a 7 point chalk.

This team has never been able to be trusted as a home favorite and that is exactly the reason why I will gladly take the Dolphins +3 1/2 and watch this game fall right on 3.


FREE SELECTION - COLORADO BUFFALOES

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Root

Vegas Legend
Carolina - (NFL)

Millionaires
Colorado + (NCAA)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Root
No Limit: Pacific
Billionaire: Rider

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

Burns Main Event- Under Carolina/ Miami

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-19-09

spreitzer

I'm laying the points with Carolina on Thursday night. Both teams have won four of six games after they each started the season 0-3. But somewhere along the line, I believe you have to dominate a quality opponent before I jump in and "buy." I'm not completely sold on Miami's resurgence just because they escaped against the Jets (twice) and the Buccaneers. Miami beat NY 31-27 in the first meeting on a Ronnie Brown TD with :06 left on the clock. The Dolphins won 30-25 the second time around, despite gaining a grand total of just 104-yards on just 2-yards per play! And last week, the Dolphins needed a game-winning TD drive over the final 1:14 to pull one out against the lowly Buccs. One could say they are a resilient team. Not me. They have been fortunate. Chad Henne has been nothing more than a "baby-sitter" under center the last four weeks, sans a drive or two. He's completed just 54% of his passes in Miami's last four games, connecting of just 66 of 122 attempts. He's averaging just 179 yards passing per game on 5.88 per attempt. And Henne has just two TD passes with three INTs and he's been sacked nine times. His passer rating the last four games: 68.6; 75.5; 87.8; 45. It all catches up to this team tonight...and without the all-important Ronnie Brown. Ricky Williams will get the start tonight. While everyone near the Dolphins say he's ready to handle the load, the bottom line is that he's a different type of back than Brown. And if he was the right fit, or as talented in the Dolphins' scheme as Brown, he'd be in the game at least just as often. The fact of the matter is that the best RB for this offense is now sidelined with a foot injury. The Dolphins are going to have to be able to pass the ball. But Henne is not that type of QB yet and he's facing the league's fourth best pass defense. The Carolina running game is not completely healthy either. But the Panthers' passing game is much better since going to a no-huddle offense. Jake Delhomme has found second-life, and the Panthers should have little trouble passing the ball against Miami's weakness...their pass defense. Besides the fact that NFL faves have been an overwhelming winner on Thursday nights, the Panthers also fit a couple of other strong situations. The Panthers, under John Fox, are 11-3 ATS in the second half of the season against offenses that average 175 yards passing or less. They're also 41-17 ATS against teams that allow 24 or more ppg. Miami allows over 25 ppg. Meanwhile, Miami is 0-7 ATS against the NFC with Tony Sporano roaming the sidelines. Look for Carolina to nail the win and cover on Thursday night. I'm laying the points with the Panthers. Thanks! GL! Scott.