11-23-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Smooth44

NFL

8:20PM EST

PLAY OF THE DAY:

HOUSTON -4

As many of you know I will find every reason to love a MNF DOG, however, tonight I can't find ONE !! What we have is a case of the Titans being significantly over-valued on the heels of 3 consecutive wins combined with Vince Young's past success against the Texans!! However, that was then and this is now!! Folks, the Texans enter this game well rested and, at 5-4, this is as close to a "must win" as we might see for this time of the year!! With the Colts running away with the conference and division the Texans only chance to get to the playoffs is through the wild card and with the Broncos now riding a 4-game skid a win tonight puts the Texans in a 4-way tie for the wild card spot!! Look for Houston to be a playoff like atmosphere tonight and for this team to be extra focused for this primetime showdown!! Oddsmakers opened this line at 3.5 and with public pounding Tennessee did not hesitate to move it to 4, a key number, which tells me the line should not come into play tonight and Houston should cover!! It is worth noting the Texans are 6-0 ATS L6 following a loss and 5-1 ATS L6 against AFC South opponents. I should also point out that there is a huge system in play tonight backing certain home faves coming off a bye week and those teams cover almost 80% of the time over the long haul!! Houston is my PLAY OF THE DAY !!

PREDICTION: HOUSTON 31 TENNESSEE 17





CBB

ALL ARE TOP-RATED

3:30PM EST : NORTHERN IOWA +3

5PM EST : YALE +12

5PM EST : VANDERBILT -4

5:30PM EST : INDIAN STATE -5 -120

6PM EST : EASTERN KENTUCKY -10

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Handicapper: Matt Fargo Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Cincinnati Bearcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores - Monday November 23, 2009 5:30 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Cincinnati Bearcats +4 (-110)


Cincinnati should be a very improved team this season. The Bearcats finished 18-14 last year including 8-10 in the Big East and they return four starters as well as bringing in two very talented freshmen. Depth was an issue for this team the last few seasons but with a full roster for the first time under fourth-year head coach Mick Cronin, expectations are once again on the upswing for the Bearcats. The best player on this team is guard Deonta Vaughn who is a two-time All-Big East selection but there is plenty of talent around him. Yancy Gates averaged double figures last season and was named to the All-Big East Freshman team while Rashad Bishops joins him down low and is the best defender on the team. Two of the players that could make the difference this season are both in their first year. True point guard Cashmere Wright was injured last season and is back healthy while incoming freshman Lance Stephenson is considered one of the best incoming rookies in the entire country. Cincinnati had trouble getting points last season as it was 12th in the Big East and 158th nationally but with all of the pieces in place, that should improve greatly. Vanderbilt is no slouch either and it will be a player in the SEC this season. The Commodores return all five starters to a team that endured a number of injuries and bad luck last season and it results in Vanderbilt missing the postseason for the first time in six years. It is coming off a big win at St. Mary’s in its last game but the matchup here is not in its favor. The team is athletic but not very physical and that is not good against a very physical Cincinnati team. The Commodores will be at a disadvantage down low and that is partly due to center A.J. Ogilvy still not at 100 percent. Vanderbilt has gotten outrebounded by five per game in the first two games while the Bearcats +13.5 rpg through their first two games. Vanderbilt is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by six points or fewer and being on the road for a lengthy period, as it travelled last Wednesday to St. Mary’s, that will make thing even tougher. 3* Cincinnati Bearcats

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Northcoast Monday night marquee

U 48'

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

ATS lock club
3 units on tonights mnf over the total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Kelso
10 unit on Titans
10 units on Over
5 units parlay of Titans and Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Bulls/Blazers OVER 179.5

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "over" in this situation:

The Bulls struggled defensively in the first two games of a six-game trip, losing 112-93 to Denver on Saturday night after being defeated 108-93 by the Los Angeles Lakers two days earlier. Chicago gave up 100 points in one of its previous 10 games and I expect it to stumble again today.

Keep in mind that the total has gone "over" the posted number in four of Chicago's last five vs. Portland overall.

On the other side of the court: Portland (10-5) had lost two of three and was held under 100 points in five straight contests before beating Minnesota 106-78 on Saturday night; look for them to build off that victory.

The Trail Blazers made 41.7 % (10 for 24) of their 3-point attempts after being held under 30 % in three of their previous five games.

Portland has seen the total go "over" the posted number after playing to 3 or more consecutive "unders", and I look for this trend to continue tonight.

Bottom line: This line is simply too low; when taking into account all of the above factors I have to strongly recommend a play on the OVER!

*8* OVER.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Ron Raymond

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS +115

Keys to selection: The Rangers have hit their low point of the season and they will be without Drury this evening, as it’s reported he has a concussion. Rangers will only go as far as Gaborik will take them and it’s too much pressure to put on one player. Tortorella is shuffling his players and they get pretty thin at the 3rd and 4th line.

Database Tip: When COLUMBUS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Vs Non Conference Opponent - Last 2 years; the Blue Jackets are 10-3 SU in this role.

ATS Ratings: Columbus by 0.15 goals.

Ron’s Prediction: Columbus 4 NY Rangers 2

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Evan Altemus

TENNESSEE TITANS +4

Tennessee has a great deal of momentum heading into this game. They had to deal with numerous injuries this season, as well as a tough opening schedule. However, their secondary is finally healthy, and the team overall is the most healthy they have been all season. Meanwhile, Houston was one of the hottest teams in the NFL before their bye week, but I feel that they will come out sluggish in this game. Bye weeks in the NFL can either help or hurt a team, and I feel in this case it will cause the Texans to lose some of the momentum that they have gained. Overall this is an AFC South divisional match-up. These two teams are rivals, and the Titans want revenge for their loss to the Texans earlier this season. Several players have stated that they want to pound Houston to make for the loss they gave them on their home field. These two teams know each other very well, and the underdog in this match-up has covered several times over the last few years. Look for Tennessee to either cover and/or win this game outright.

4 UNIT SELECTION TITANS.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Rocketman

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS -120

Penguins are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Penguins are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Penguins are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a road favorite. Penguins are 24-8 in their last 32 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Penguins are 38-13 in their last 51 games as a favorite. Penguins are 11-4 in their last 15 games playing on 1 days rest. Penguins are 37-14 in their last 51 vs. Eastern Conference. Penguins are 47-21 in their last 68 overall. Penguins are 31-14 in their last 45 games following a win. Penguins are 37-17 in their last 54 vs. Southeast. Penguins are 47-22 in their last 69 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Penguins are 41-20 in their last 61 vs. a team with a losing record. Panthers are 17-36-6 in their last 59 Monday games. Panthers are 7-19 in their last 26 games as a home underdog. Penguins are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. We'll play Pittsburgh for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Tony George

MILWAUKEE BUCKS +9

The Bucks are red hot SU and ATS. I am impressed with Jennings at guard and he is the real deal and threat to score every trip down the court. Milwaukee has been scoring lights out and have beaten teams like Denver in a 7-1 SU run, the only loss a OT loss to Dallas. San Antonio is still hit and miss, and are laying a huge number in this one against a team that plays good defense and can score. A solid matchup with too many points. This series is always tight with the dog covering 7 out of the last 9 games, and the Bucks are 8-1 ATS the last 9 meetings.

Play 1 Unit on the Bucks.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Marc Lawrence

TENNESSEE TITANS +4.5

The Titans will look to avenge a home loss suffered to the Texans in Week Two of this season as seven-point favorites when they travel to Houston under the Monday Night lights. For openers, Tennessee is 10-2 SU and ATS as a road dog under head coach Jeff Fisher, including 5-0 SU and ATS when facing a sub .600 opponent. In addition, Fisher is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS in his career as a dog off a double-digit spread win versus a .600 or less opponent. Completing the set, the Texans check in at 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS under head coach Gary Kubiak when they own a .500 or greater record facing a sub .400 opponent. This game has all the makings of an upset. Take the points with the Titans. We recommend a 3-unit play on Tennessee.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Dwayne Bryant

SAN ANTONIO SPURS -9

At first glance, this line looks a bit high. We have the 8-3 Bucks visiting the 5-6 Spurs minus Manu Ginobili and we have a 9-point spread. That alone will have many squares lining up to back the Bucks. But there are a few reasons I like the Spurs tonight. Before I get into the game itself, I have to say that I love the reverse line movement here. At the time I'm writing this, my sources show 58% of the bets on the Bucks, yet the line has moved to 9.5 at some books.

The Spurs have played much better at home (5-2 SU & ATS) than on the road (0-4 SU & ATS). If you look at how Milwaukee plays on the road compared to how the Spurs play at home, we see the Spurs have nice edges in FG %, 3-point %, FT %, and rebound margin. This is also the third game in four days for the Bucks and the loss of center Andrew Bogut to injury will hurt the Bucks in this one. The Spurs are playing with double revenge since the Bucks swept both meetings last season. Richard Jefferson played for Milwaukee last season and that "inside information" he can provide to the Spurs coaching staff and his teammates can only help. I see a Spurs win by 15. Lay the wood with San Antonio.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Lenny Del Genio

TENNESSEE TITANS +4

The Titans are 3-0 SU/ATS since switching back to Vince Young at QB, so no sense going against them now knowing that they have revenge from a 34-31 loss to the Texans in Week 2. Remember that Tennessee led Houston by two touchdowns in the first half of that game and RB Chris Johnson ran wild for 197 yards on just 16 carries. This is an uncomfortable spot for the Texans, who are 15 days removed from a crushing loss to the Colts and have Indianapolis here at home next week. The Titans are 6-0 ATS after BB games where they won the turnover margin and 11-3 ATS off a SU win. They are also 12-3 ATS on the road off a SU win. Over the last five seasons, road underdogs seeking revenge for a SU loss as a favorite are 50-21 ATS for 70% winners. If our team has a losing record and the game is in the second half of the season, that winning percentage jumps to 80% for a 24-6 record. Take Tennessee.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Teddy Covers
Texans/Titans OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-23-09

Coach Ron Meyer 11/23

5* Texans