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B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W ido w W iseg uy C B B "B LOO D B AT H" of the Week on Va nd erb ilt -4.5(-110 at bookm)
Vandy is stacked this season with 5 returning starters. Arizona comes into this game very tired, needing overtime to beat Colorado last night. Their first 2 games of the Maui Invitational have been nail biters, with 4-point wins over Wisconsin and Colorado. Vandy earned a 68-41 win over Chaminade last night, so they had a chance to rest their starters. Now the Commodores will be the fresher team tonight, and they'll take it to Arizona early and ware them down. Vandy is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a game where they made 45% of their free throws or worse since 1997. They'll improve those numbers and win running away Wednesday. Take Vandy and lay the points.
This will hardly be confused with a preview of the 2010 NBA Finals, however, it does offer a solid opportunity to play on the struggling Kings. Sacramento surprised many by winning four straight following an injury to leading scorer Kevin Martin, but has since come back down to Earth losing four in a row. Enter the mess that is the Knicks. This will be New York's fourth game in five nights, a terrible spot for a team in such disarray. HC D'Antoni is now feuding w/ G Robinson over what was perceived to be some selfish play and although the team has covered three straight games, the level of competition was not good in two of them and the Knicks remain a tailor-made opponent for Sacramento. The Kings have scored triple digits in nine of ten and against a defensively deficient team like New York, expect their scoring to rise even further. Take Sacramento.
Memphis has quietly been playing much better over the last week. They have won and covered in four of their last five games. Those wins have come against weaker teams, but they have the added confidence coming into this game. This game is the start of a long road trip, so I expect them to be very focused in this game. Meanwhile, Phoenix has this game before Thanksgiving tomorrow before heading on a road trip of their own. The Suns are coming off of a blowout win over Detroit, so I don’t expect their focus to be on this game. Look for Memphis to keep this game close and cover the point spread.
Rangers are 5-2 in their last 7 Wednesday games. Rangers are 13-6 in their last 19 games as a road favorite. Panthers are 3-7 in their last 10 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Panthers are 2-5 in their last 7 home games. Panthers are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Panthers are 7-20 in their last 27 games as a home underdog. Panthers are 2-6 in their last 8 Wednesday games. Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. We'll play NY Rangers for 3 units tonight!
When ANY NBA Team played as a -12.5 to -15.0 Home Favorite - Vs Division Opponent - Coming off a 1 game road stand - Coming off a Road win as a Favorite - Coming off a Road win; the OVER is 10-5-0 for the Home Fav (BOSTON) in this role. My ATS Calculator numbers have this total landing on 193.07 points.
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the “under”:
Toronto scored the most first half points in franchise history in their blowout of the Pacers last night, and I expect an offensive “letdown” this evening.
While the offense was enough to carry the Raptors against the Pacers, the team knows it will need better defensive outings to start winning consistently and I look for them to concentrate on that end of the court to begin this roadtrip.
On the other side of the court: Charlotte has the number 2nd ranked defense in the entire league, allowing opponents 89.5 points per game. Charlotte has the 2nd worst offensive ranking in the league, averaging just 85.3 ppg.
Charlotte is also coming off a victory over the Pacers.
Bottom line: The total has gone under the posted number in four of the last five games these teams have played against each other and I expect this strong trend to continue tonight.
When taking into account the fact that Toronto played last night, and these other strong trends and stats, my *10* “TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER” is indeed on the UNDER! 10* UNDER.
5* W iseg uy N B A "S LE EP ER" of the Week on D et roit P ist ons +5.5(-105 at SIA)
The P ist ons show excellent value as a home dog Wednesday. Detroit is 3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS at home this season, where they play excellent defense by allowing a mere 84.4 points/game. After 5 straight losses, the P ist ons are finally showing the kind of value where there's no way you should pass them up tonight. They'll show up ready to go in D etr oit. Take the P ist ons and the points.
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