11-26-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

LANG

Enjoy being with your family and friends. I realize as I get older how important these holidays are. To take a moment and embrace them just a little while longer than I would in my younger days.

And speaking about embracing something, how about embracing 13-1-2 the last 3 weeks in the NFL including a perfect 7-0-2 run the last 3 Sundays?

Or how about my 2nd biggest NFL release in 2 years banging home the 75 dime winner on the Colts over the Ravens last Sunday?

Just flat out dialed in right now and I am seeing the board with a very nice clarity. I have been in "zones" like this in the past, been doing this way to long not to know when I am in the "zone".

13-1-2 tells you I am in another one of those "zones" and over the next 4 days I feel I am going to expand the zone he best way I know how right now.

BY WINNING.

Let's push it to 14-1-2 in the NFL with this Thursday night winner.

20 DIME - DENVER BRONCOS - (Buy up the 1/2 point if you have 6, or 6 1/2 on Denver)

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Or have they?

After starting 6-0 the Broncos were the toast of the NFL. Their 33-year old head coach attained immediate rock star status. He was the media's flavor of the month as far as coaches were concerned.

Then came a trip to Baltimore off a bye week against a Ravens team that had lost 3 in a row, and they too were coming off a bye week.

Bottom line is Denver was just at the wrong place at the wrong time versus the Ravens. In fact, I'm not so sure any team who played the Ravens that day wouldn't have suffered the same fate.

Off their first defeat the Broncos come home to face the Steelers on Monday night and just flat out got beat by a better team.

All of a sudden at 6-2 they have to travel to Washington and battle the Redskins and I don't care who you are, any team loses their starting QB on the road in the NFL in the first quarter, you are going to struggle.

And finally, now at 6-3, the Chargers come to town facing back up Chris Simms. It is safe to say Simms wasn't the answer as the first drive of the game would lead you to believe.

Winning the coin toss and getting the ball first at their own 26 the Broncos run the ball 7 straight times picking up 3 first downs and arriving at a 2nd and 2 at the San Diego 17 yard line.

They decide to drop Simms back to pass for the first time and he is sacked, fumbles, and the Chargers recover.

The next 2 Broncos drives are stalled by penalties while the 4th, with Kyle Orton pulling a Willis Reed off the bench with the bad ankle, immediately sparks the offense.

Starting from his own 36 he completes a 22 yarder to Marshall, 38 yarder to Gaffney and had them at 1st and goal at the 4 yard line. Touchdown here and game on.

Nope. Rookie Moreno fumbles and pretty much all the momentum in the world was gone with it.

So as you can see, it may look like 4 straight losses, but it wasn't as if those 4 losses were against the Lions, Browns, Bucs or Rams.

The world is all wrapped up in this 4 game losing streak but as you can see, little more to it than that.

Who are the Giants, on an 0-5 ATS run their last 5 and who's defense still can consistently stop anybody for an entire 60 minutes, to be laying a full touchdown on the road against an AFC opponent?

It's not like Denver is going to just lay down in this spot here. Quite to the contrary. I believe they are going to step up and play one of their best games of the year.

The points are too good to pass up for me and it wouldn't suprise me to see the Broncos get consistent pressure on Eli Manning and for Eli to throw up a Thanksgiving clunker and for Denver to win the game outright.

FREE SELECTION - TEXAS-TEXAS A&M OVER

[wayneschultz]

Re: 11-26-09

anything for root yet

happy turkey day to all

[kreekor]

Re: 11-26-09

Ben Burns

Thursday, November 26, 2009

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST Detroit Lions Premium Play

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Play Title *15-4 YTD* Burns' AFTERNOON ANNIHILATOR! (Det/GB!)

Play Selected Point Spread: 10.5/101

I'm taking the points with DETROIT. Its become a Thanksgiving tradition for the Lions to get blown out every Thanksgiving. With the Packers off back to back double-digit victories and with the Lions off a very hard fought game vs. the lowly Browns, most will be expecting "more of the same" this season. In my opinion, recent Thanksgivings have little bearing on this afternoon's game though and that all the "anti-Detroit sentiment" has given us excellent line value with the home underdog. If anything, the recent Thanksgiving losses should serve to provide the Lions with some extra motivation. While many will expect another blowout, I feel that this year will be different and I expect the Lions to be competitive the entire way. The Lions' defense admittedly isn't among the best in the league. I noted that last week when successfully playing on them to go 'over' vs. the Browns. The offense is more capable than many realize though and is coming off a break-out game. Of course, most of you have probably seen the hit on QB Stafford at the end of that 'thriller.' That was a bigtime shot and the rookie is currently not expected to get the start. Detroit coach Jim Schwartz had this to say: "It's unlikely that he's going to play, but we'll see..." Last week's performance was more than just Stafford though. It was a big effort from the entire offense. I have confidence that Culpepper can get the job done and that the team will rally behind him. He'll certainly have plenty of motivation. On the other side of the ball, the Lions' defenders know that they'll have to elevate their level of play. They remember last Thanksgiving (47-10 loss to Tennessee!) and they know that if they don't rise to the occasion that the Packers are also capable of putting up big numbers. Despite allowing the Browns to score 37 last week, the Lions defense has actually been significantly better at home than it has been on the road. Overall, the Lions are allowing an ugly 30.1 points and 395 yards. At home, however, those numbers dip to a much more respectable 24.6 points and 360 yards. In fact, prior to last week, the Lions were allowing only 21.5 points and 340.2 yards and those numbers are right around the league average. Yes, the Packers did look pretty good in beating the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. However, they were catching Dallas in a great spot and that was at Lambeau. They weren't quite as impressive vs. the 49'ers last week, as they allowed the 49'ers to battle back from an early deficit and make a game of it. Green Bay would win by only six. That was also at Lambeau. The Packers are just 2-2 on the road (0-1 in divisional road games) and those two wins came against Cleveland and St. Louis. Both those teams have worse records than the Lions. Currently, they're a combined 2-18. I played against the Packers in their most recent road game and they lost outright to a Bucs team which was starting a brand new QB and which had previously been winless. In fact, Green Bay is just 2-7 SU its last nine road games, dating back to last season. While most know of Stafford's injury, it should be noted that the Packers are dealing with some key injuries themselves. As you know, the Lions have been pretty bad for a number of years. Yet, despite the fact that this is a much improved team, this is by far the most points that they've ever been getting for a home game vs. the Packers, this entire millennium. Considering the Packers' trouble on the road and trouble protecting their quarterback, I believe that's providing us with excellent value. I look for the revenge-minded Lions to be far more competitive than most are expecting. 7* Annihilator

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (NFL) - 12:30 PM EST Under Premium Play

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Play Title **9** BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT! (7-1 RUN!) *DET/GB

Play Selected Total: 47.5/-105

I'm playing on GB and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. Both these teams were involved in very high-scoring games last week. Those results have helped cause this afternoon's o/u number to be much higher than it would have been otherwise. I played on the Lions to finish 'over' the total last week, so was thrilled to see all the points. (The Lions won 38-37) I'll admit. I didn't really anticipate that high-scoring of a game. I was just hoping for a final combined score somewhere in the 38-50 range. That 75-point outburst has worked in our favor this week though. So, what caused last week's Detroit/Clev. game to result in a shootout? Well, with both teams playing a 'meaningless' game vs. a non-conference opponent, there was a bigger priority on offense than there was on defense and both teams were able to be extra aggressive. This week, however, the Lions will be playing a divisional game vs. an opponent that is still very much in the playoff race. Big difference. Note that the Lions have seen both their non-conf. games finish above the total but that the UNDER is 5-3 in their games vs. teams from the NFC. As for the Packers, yes, their game was also high-scoring. (30-24 GB.) However, a closer look show that the Packers had only allowed three points in the first half. In other words, it could have easily been lower-scoring. The previous week, the Packers limited Dallas to a mere seven points. Yes, the Packers will be missing a couple of key defensive players. However, the same can be said of the Detroit offense, which will likely be without QB Stafford and possibly also without receiver Johnson. Note that the Packers completely shutout the Lions (26-0) when the teams faced each other back in October. The Lions would finish with less than 150 total yards of offense. Here, they'll face a GB defense which is allowing a mere 272 yards per game on the road and which has held three of its last six opponents to a touchdown or less. The Lions' defenders know that they'll have to elevate their level of play. They remember last Thanksgiving (47-10 loss to Tennessee!) and they know that if they don't rise to the occasion that the Packers are also capable of putting up big numbers. Despite allowing the Browns to score 37 last week, the Lions defense has actually been significantly better at home than it has been on the road. Overall, the Lions are allowing an ugly 30.1 points and 395 yards. At home, however, those numbers dip to a much more respectable 24.6 points and 360 yards. In fact, prior to last week, the Lions were allowing only 21.5 points and 340.2 yards and those numbers are right around the league average. Whether its a banged-up Stafford or whether its Culpepper (more likely) I expect the Lions to take a conservative approach, running the ball regularly and attempting to keep the Green Bay offense off the field, as much as possible. Including the earlier loss at Lambeau, the Lions are averaging only 11.7 points in their four divisional games. Three of those games fell below the total, including the only one which was played here at Detroit. Looking back to last season and we find that each of Detroit's last three divisional home games have fallen below the total. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting with the final combined score staying beneath the generous total. *9 Blue Chip

Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:15 PM EST Dallas Cowboys Premium Play

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Play Title Ben Burns' *10* 2009 Turkey Day ROAST! (15-4 YTD!)

Play Selected Point Spread: -13.5/-106

I'm laying the points with DALLAS. I successfully played on the Raiders in last week's upset win vs. Cincinnati. This is a much tougher matchup for them though. Last week, they were catching a Bengals team which was "patting itself on the back" and which had traveled all the way to the West Coast. This week, the Raiders will be the ones who were forced to travel and they'll be catching a very capable Dallas team, one which has recently received a real 'wake up call.' The fact that the Raiders played on the West Coast last week is extremely significant. The travel is particularly tough, given that this is such a short week. Indeed, the Cowboys played an early game here at Dallas last Sunday. The Raiders, on the other hand, played a late afternoon game at Oakland. That was just on the 22nd and this game is on the 26th. You may recall that last Thanksgiving Day the Cowboys were also fortunate to catch a West Coast team playing on a short week. The Cowboys were off a home win vs. the 49'ers, so didn't have to travel. Their opponent was the Seahawks, who had played a late Sunday afternoon game in the Pacific Northwest. Playing on a short week, Seattle was no match. The Cowboys rolled to a 34-9 blowout win. While the Cowboys offense has struggled in recent weeks (and may be without Witten) they're still highly capable. Dallas still ranks fifth in the league in total offense. They're looking for a breakout performance and a big win on National TV will be a great place to start. Receiver Patrick Crayton was quoted as saying: "We know we've got to start picking it up. Not just for our fans, but for ourselves too. It's going to be good for us to come out Thursday and be sharp and be crisp. It's got to look like we are really doing something out there." Even if it weren't such a taxing schedule, the Raiders are in over their heads. With outright wins vs. Cincy and Philly, they've proven that they can compete at home. The same cannot be said of their performance on the road. In four road games, the Raiders have gone 1-3 SU/ATS and they've been outscored by a whopping 26.7 to 10.5 margin. In fact, a look at the total yardage of those games shows that the Raiders may be fortunate that they're "only" getting outscored by 16.2 points on the road. Opponents are gaining an average of 391.7 yards in those games. Oakland, on the other hand, is managing an average of only 156.8 yards in its four road games. That's truly pathetic. In fact, Oakland's lone road win came at KC and the Raiders were dominated statistically in that game. Now, they'll be facing a Dallas defense which has held four straight opponents to 17 points or less, allowing an average of only 14 in those games. Now Gradkowski has to deal with DeMarcus Ware and co... Dallas QB Tony Romo had some back stiffness after/during last game. He's reportedly feeling much better though and he's been terrific on Thanksgiving. In fact, he's 3-0 on Turkey Day with 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He's also boasts an outstanding 71.4 completion percentage in those games. Despite failing to cover last week, the Cowboys are still 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS their last six November home games. I look for them to improve on those numbers and make a statement in this one. *10 Thanksgiving Roast
New York Giants vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Under Premium Play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Wayne Root:

3* Packers (-11.5) over Lions
4* Cowboys (-13.5) over Raiders*
6* Broncos (+6) over Ny Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

PPP----2 A&M, Dallas, GB over, NY under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Big Al Mcmordie

Denver Broncos +6 (-110) 1 unit

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. However, let's not forget how bad the Raiders can be. They run for just 102.3 YPG (3.9 YPC) and the offense has been inept most of the season, especially on the road. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games, scoring just 29 points (9.7 per) while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Oakland has yet to win (or cover) in back-to-back contests this season and why would that change here in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, with the Raiders off a 'miracle' win over the Bengals and playing a road game on a very 'short' week? My 'BET' is that it won't! Turkey Day 10* Dal Cowboys.

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: The Cowboys escaped with a 26-20 OT win at KC in Week 5 and went into their bye week at 3-2 with lots of questions. However, the Cowboys returned with home wins over the Falcons and Seahawks, outscoring those two opponents 75-38. Romo averaged 283.5 YPG through the air in those games with six TDs and zero INTs. The Cowboys then won 20-16 at Philly on a Sunday night in Week 9 and suddenly, Dallas led the NFC East. However, the Dallas offense has gone 'south' the last two weeks, scoring just seven points in each of its last two games (at Green Bay and home to Washington). Dallas has failed to score through the first three quarters of each its last two games and Romo has just two TDs (also two INTs) the last two games after having eight TDs and one INT during the team's preceding four-game win streak. Romo completed 15-of-27 passes for just 158 yards Sunday but he capped a nine-play, 60-yard drive with a 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton with 2:41 left for the winning score against the Redskins in an 'ugly' 7-6 win. It was announced after the Cowboys' win that Romo was suffering from back problems. Oakland won 13-10 at KC in Week 2 but has lost its last three road games while the defense has allowed 97 points (32.3 per). I'm no fan of Wade Phillips but Romo is 3-0 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day with 10 TDs, just two INTs and a 71.4 completion percentage, leading the Cowboys to an average of 35.3 PPG. Dallas owns a three-headed RB attack (Barber, Jones and Choice), which is almost unheard of these days, but Dallas runs for a solid 132.3 YPG (ranks 8th) and an impressive 5.0 YPG. Coming off tow AWFUL offensive games (especially here at home playing on Thanksgiving Day, which has become a tradition), expect the Dallas offense to deliver. As for the Raiders, Bruce Gradkowski completed 17-of-34 passes for 183 yards and two TDs, as the Raiders upset the Bengals 20-17 last Sunday. Gradkowski threw an interception and also lost a fumble but he was SO much better than what the Raiders had seen from former starter JaMarcus Russell this season, that Gradkowski gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw a 29-yard game-tying TD pass with 33 seconds left and then Oakland forced a fumble on the ensuing kickoff to set up Sebastian Janikowski's game-winning 33-yard FG that gave the Raiders a 20-17 victory over the Bengals last Sunday. Gradkowski is the perfect example of a journeyman player keeping himself in shape physically and mentally, just waiting for a chance." He's got that chance here and while trading scores with the Cowboys may not be realistic, I do expect Gradkowski to lead the Raiders to a few scores. With this low total, as long as those scoring drives are TDs and not FGs, this game will go over with plenty of room to spare. NFL Total of the Week 9* Oak/Dal Over.

Larry Ness
REASON FOR PICK: Texas beat Baylor 47-14 on November 14th. That win saw Texas reach 10 wins for the ninth straight season, second only to Florida State's run of 14 consecutive 10-win seasons from 1987-2000. Texas then beat Kansas last Saturday 51-20 and that win clinched the school's first Big South title since 2005, when Vince Young led the Longhorns to the school's first undisputed national championship in 36 years. Texas A&M beat Baylor 38-3 last Saturday here in College Station, giving the Aggies six wins and making them bowl-eligible. It's a nice improvement for second-year head coach Mike Sherman who led the Aggies to just four wins in 2008. All the pressure is on Texas in this game, as with a win here and on December 5 vs Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game, the Longhorns will gain a spot in the BCS championship game against the winner of the SEC title game between No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Alabama. McCoy finished second in last year's Heisman voting and will be among the finalists again this year. Saturday's win improved McCoy to 43-7 in his career, breaking the record he shared with former Georgia quarterback David Greene (2001-2004) for most-ever wins by an NCAA starting QB. McCoy has thrown a TD pass in 28 consecutive games (has at least one TD pass in 37 of his last 38 games), which is the longest active streak in the nation. McCoy posted a 34-8 ratio last year but it's a more modest 23-9 this year. He completed an NCAA single-season record 76.7 percent of his passes last year and while he won't likely top that in 2009, it's not as if his 73.0 percent mark in 2009 is "chopped liver" (in fact, it leads the nation). His 108 TD passes in his career is the most of any active QB and he continues to extend his career record of TDs responsible for (passing, rushing, receiving) at Texas, as his total is now up 127. Considering the Aggies have the 11th-worst pass defense in the nation, allowing 259.0 YPG, that looks like a very favorable matchup for McCoy and the Longhorns. Let's also note that the Texas defense ranks third in the nation in total yards allowed (238.7) and seventh in points allowed (13.3). McCoy completed 23-of-28 passes for 311 yards (2 TDs / 0 TDs) in last year's 49-9 win at Austin, the largest margin of victory in the rivalry since a 48-0 Texas victory way back in 1898 (that's a long time ago). The Texas D held the Aggies to just 245 total yards and minus-24 yards rushing. The Longhorns also sacked QBs Jerrod Johnson and Stephen McGee six times. The Aggies have had some 'ugly' losses this year, 47-19 vs Arkansas in Arlington, 62-14 at Kansas St and 65-10 at Oklahoma. However, the Aggies are 5-1 SU at home this year, averaging an impressive 274.8 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC) in their five wins. Jerrod Johnson, a 6-foot-5 junior QB, has set single-season school records for completions (241), passing yards (2,875), TD passes (24) and 300-yard games (four) for A&M this season. He has thrown just five INTs (in 406 attempts), four fewer than McCoy has thrown. A&M's lone home loss came vs Oklahoma St and in that game, the Aggies were held to just 109 yards rushing (2.7 YPC) and that's significant because Texas ranks No. 1 in the nation in rush D, allowing 50.1 YPG on 1.7 YPC. Does that scare me off taking the Aggies? The simple answer is N-O! McCoy was great vs A&M last year but he was 0-2 in his first two games vs the Aggies, as A&M won 12-7 at Texas (+13.5) in 2006 and 38-30 (+7) at College Station in 2007. In those two Texas losses, McCoy completed just 56.7 percent of his passes and had one TD and four INTs. Rivalry games are just that. They seem to take on a "life of their own." This game will be the schools' 116th meeting (first game was in 1894), playing every year since 1915. In the 2007 game at College Station, the Aggies out-gained the Longhorns 533-357 yards and led wire-to-wire. In 2005 (also at College Station), the year Texas would win the national title, A&M out-gained the Longhorns 398-336 yards (22-18 in FDs) in a 40-29 loss (as 28-point 'dogs). Vince Young, who would complete 30-of-40 passes for 267 yards plus run for 200 yards and three TDs in a 41-38 win over USC in the BCS championship game (ending Southern Cal's 34-game winning streak and denying the Trojans an unprecedented third straight national championship), was held to 19 YR (11 carries) while completing 13-of-24 passes for 162 yards. Rivalry games can be special. Texas wins but NOT by any real margin. Lone Star Showdown on Texas A&M. (9*).