11-26-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Mike Lineback

[103-104] 4* Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions UNDER 47.5 -110 | 12:30p ET

[108] 4* Denver Broncos +6 -110 | 8:20p ET

[502] 4* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 -110 or better | 8:00p ET | with or without Bibby in lineup

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Kelso:

50 Unit Giants -5.5
10 Unit Texas -21
10 Unit Packers -11.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections

NFL
2 (**) Green Bay -11
2 (**) Oakland +13.5
2 (**) Denver +6.5

NCAA Football
2 (**)) Texas -21

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

ATS Financial Package

Dallas
GB/Det Over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Trace Adams

1500? INTERCONFERENCE
DEAD MORTAL LOCK

Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Kavitch aka Gamebreaker

Thursday, November 26, 2009


8:20 PM
Denver
NY Giants

Spread Pick
Picked Denver with spread of +6 (-109)
100 units were wagered.


Good time for Denver to fight hard in prime time. They have the big losing streak but they've run into the wrong teams at the wrong time and injuries at QB have hurt. The Giants don't deserve to be laying this many on the road and were an OT field goal away from continuing their long losing streak. What I like is the poorer play of the Giants D recently and that will allow the Broncos to earn the cover as a prime time home dog. Denver +6 for a 4* play.

4:15 PM
Dallas
Oakland

Spread Pick
Picked Dallas with spread of -13.5 (-105)
100 units were wagered.


A rare big fav but last week's results set up perfectly for it. Oakland caught Cincy at the perfect time and are now travelling on a short week after pulling the upset. Travelling off that kind of win for an inconsistent team is often a train wreck in the following week and it magnifies it with a short week and being a west coast team. The Dallas D has enough to seriously limit the Raiders while the Dallas running game is in a great spot to pound the Raiders and let this team make a statement in front of a national audience. Good running opens up the passing game and I think all this combined gets the Cowboys a lopsided win. Just one other note. After the Raider upset and the Dallas stinker last week, I really feel like the oddsmaker is laying a trap opening the Raiders as a 2 TD underdog. It's done a good job to split the action so far but there are reasons for every number that gets set. Take Dallas for a 3* regular play.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

John Ryan

Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Detroit as they face the Green Bay Packers set to start on Thanksgiving Day at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Detroit will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an incredible 25-1 ATS since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team sporting a win percentage of <=25% playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. The SU record of this system is an amazing 17-10 and 48% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 24-7 for 77% winners since 1983. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 8 or more points. It is very rare that any system approaches a 50% 7 or greater cover level so these are two rare and very supportive systems for this play. Green Bay has never been a good investment when favored by 10 or more points. Note that they are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. AIS also shows a 93% probability that Detroit will allow 250 to 300 net passing yards in this game. Note that over the past 3 seasons Detroit is a strong 8-1 ATS when allowing 250 to 300 net passing yards. The Lions offense took flight last week. Stafford will not start, but Daunte Culpepper is starting and will certainly want to show the league he can still play. Last week’s offensive performance was a complete team effort and I do not see much drop off – if any at all – with Culpepper behind center. Take Detroit.




Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Dallas as they take on Oakland set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Dallas will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 25-7 ATS over the past 5 seasons. Play on favorites when playing on a Thursday. Here is a 2nd supporting system proven by the test of 27 years. It has produced a record of 159-102 ATS for 61% winners since 1983. Play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog after the first month of the season. Oakland is in a series of poor roles while Dallas in a series of strong ones for this game. Oakland is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/attempt in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=285 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=4.75 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. Dallas has failed to score in the past 2 weeks like a conference leader, but the matchups certainly favor a big output in this game. Oakland won last week led by QB Bruce Gradkowski, but they will struggle to score points against a Dallas defense that is playing quite well. He was successful at getting the WR involved in the game last week against the unfocused Bengals. This week will be far tougher as Dallas has two outstanding corners in man coverage. They are Mike ******* and Terence Newman. Let’s not forget too that the Raiders rank 30th in 3rd down conversions at 27.9% and I don’t see them even converting 25% in this game. Romo has struggled to connect and has the third worst completion percentage in the league and ranks 2nd with 62 “poor throws”. I believe a lot of this has occurred as the OC Garrett has chosen to change the schemes and routes somewhat in an attempt to make film study of their previous games meaningless. They will pound the ball and then use play action pass to set-up scoring strikes. Take Dallas.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: New York Giants @ Denver Broncos - Thursday November 26, 2009 8:20 pm
Pick: 5 units ATS: Denver Broncos +7 (-130)

Denver hit a low last week. After a 6-0 start, they have lost four in a row, the last game a 32-3 drubbing that allowed San Diego to take over the division lead - something that seemed unthinkable when they owned a 3.5 game lead just four weeks ago. They have been outscored 117-37 over their losing streak. Even during their victorious streak, Denver didn't get much support from the oddsmakers or public. After four weeks of horrid football, no one wants to touch them. The oddsmakers had to open them as a big home dog, and the public has pushed the line even higher. I believe Denver is ready to make a stand. New York comes in here off a win, but is this team really deserving of a TD-road favorite role? Before last week's win, the Giants had lost four in a row. They haven't covered the spread in five straight games. And, even in the win their defense gave up 31 points. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 164 points - 32.8 per game! That's just the kind of defense that Denver needs to face right now. Coming in off a very short week, it's not likely that New York was able to remedy what ails them defensively. So there's no reason to expect a major change this week. Antonio Pierce is still out and that only makes matters worse for the G-Men defense. On offense, the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw. With Brandon Jacobs having a bad year, and coming off a leg injury, don't expect the Giants to run the ball particularly well, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked 7th in the league in points allowed. Give me the home team with the much better defense, getting a touchdown.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Tony Weston
THURSDAY'S PLAYS 25 Dime Giants
5 Dime Raiders


Giants at Broncos
GIANTS - While it may have started a little later than most people figured, the Denver Broncos are in the midst of a downward spiral that has seen the team lose 4 consecutive games SU and ATS.

After starting the year a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS the Broncos seem to have come back to reality. Tonight, against the visiting New York Giants, who themselves have seen the good and bad this year, Denver will struggle once again.

The Broncos started the season 3-0 SU and ATS at home, beating the Browns, Cowboys and Patriots by an average of 10.3 points per game (21.3-11).

Since then, the Broncos have played just two games at home, but have looked horrible in both games, losing 28-10 to the Steelers then 32-3 to the Chargers this last Sunday (That’s 60-13 or 30-6.5 for those of you counting).

On this current four-game skid the Broncos have lost by an average of 20 points per game and now battle a Giants team that’s 3-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and is 2-1 SU and ATS against the AFC West, outscoring the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers, on average, 30.3-14.6.

The Giants will hand the Broncos another loss and cruise to an easy victory.



Raiders at Cowboys
RAIDERS - Overall this season the Dallas Cowboys may be 7-3 SU, but they haven’t done much in the money making category as they’re only 5-5 ATS.

And even though the Raiders are just 3-7 SU this year, they will cover on the road at the new Dallas Palace.

Consider that coming into this game the Cowboys have gone just 1-1 SU their last 2 games and have failed to cover in each of those, losing outright 17-7 as a 3-point favorite at Green Bay a couple of weeks ago then narrowly beating the Redskins 7-6 at home as an 11-point favorite this last Sunday.

For the season, Dallas is outscoring its opponents by 10 points per game at home (26.8-16.8), which may be good some days, but not when you’re laying about 13 1/2 points. Overall this season, the Cowboys are only beating their opponents by about 6 points per game (23.1-17.5).

The Raiders, on the other hand, come into today’s game 3-2 ATS their last 5 games, including covers in each 3 of their last 4 when installed as an underdog. For the year, Oakland is 3-1 ATS when catching double digits.

The Raiders are coming off a 20-17 outright win against the Bengals, who were installed as a 9-point favorite this last Sunday. That win came mainly due to the fact that JaMarcus Russell is no longer the starting quarterback of the Raiders, who have now turned to Bruce Gradkowski.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
30 Dime --- COWBOYS

15 Dime --- 3 Team, 10-point Teaser: PACKERS, BRONCOS and TEXAS A&M

DALLAS COWBOYS --- Were you a little shocked when this line came out at 13 1/2? I gotta admit, I was too. But that's why Vegas is a billion dollar industry... because they have professionals setting these lines so incredibly tight that it's nearly impossible for them not to make money. After the way the Cowboys played the last two weeks combined with Oakland's miracle, come-from-behind win over Cincy last week (my 100-dime NFL underdog game of the year, by the way), I figured this number would be somewhere in the neighborhood of what the Packers/Lions line was. Boy was I wrong. But in all reality, I'm glad. I don't like it when a game seems too easy. If Dallas were favored by 10, it would seem like a gift, and Vegas doesn't hand out gifts.

This line looks nearly impossible for the Cowboys to cover, which gives me all the reason in the world to think I'm on the right side. Forget what happened last week vs. Washington's #1-rated pass defense. Forget what happened two weeks ago in Lambeau. And forget Oakland's win over the Eagles and Bengals (both at home). I want you to focus on these two teams, as a whole. Dallas' offense vs. Oakland's defense... especially their 30th-ranked run defense. I want you to imagine Marion Barber and Felix Jones running for 6, 7, and 8 yards per carry. Oakland, who might be without Pro Bowl DE Richard Seymour, simply can't stop the run. Just ask Bernard Scott, the rookie RB from Cincinnati. Now imagine Dallas' defense... a defense that allowed just 6 points to Washington, 17 to Green Bay (though 14 points were set up deep in Dallas territory by turnovers), and 16 to Philadelphia, vs. the Oakland offense. Oakland's offense averages just 10 PPG... FOR THE SEASON.

Bruce Gradkowski did a serviceable job last week of leading his team on the game-tying drive, but let's be honest... he's not Rich Gannon. He's not even Terry Gannon. And now he starts his first road game in a very loud stadium on a surface the Raiders aren't familiar with. In fact, just once this year have the Raiders played on the "fake stuff"... the other game resulted in a 44-7 loss to the NY Giants in the Meadowlands. I'm expecting something similar today. Maybe the Cowboys don't reach 44, but the Raiders won't score more than 10-13 points, meaning we only need between 24 and 28 points to get the cover. No problem. Dallas averages 27 PPG at home while the Raiders allow 27 PPG on the road... so I think it's safe to say the Cowboys are going to push the 27-point plateau. And last I checked, the Cowboys love to play on Turkey Day. Not only do they have a winning record on this great holiday, they've absolutely rolled their last three opponents by a combined 106-22 score. They pounded the Bucs 38-10 back in 2006, the Jets 34-3 in 2007, and the Seahawks 34-9 last year. Notice the pattern? Over 30 points in each of their last three Thanksgiving Day games, while holding their opponents to 10 points or less. Do you see any differences in today's opponent and the last three results? I don't. Cowboys roll.

3-TEAM, 10-POINT TEASER (GREEN BAY, DENVER, TEXAS A&M) --- Let's have a little fun with a holiday three-team teaser. We're betting the Packers down to near a pick 'em, and it's absolutely crazy to think they won't beat the Lions SU. They have so much more to play for than Detroit right now and they appear much healthier... at least on the offensive side of the ball. QB Matthew Stafford won't play after separating his left shoulder in last week's game while WR Calvin Johnson is going to be a game-time decision. That's pretty much the entire offense, other than a few decent runs from RB Kevin Smith. True, Green Bay does have a few dings and bruises on the defensive side, but I'm not sure it's going to matter who plays against this depleted offense.

Denver is simply getting too many points when you tease them up to +16 as I just absolutely do not see them losing another home game by double digits. Pittsburgh and San Diego have been the last two teams to come to Denver and absolutely pummel them... and it's simply not going to happen again. These guys didn't start the season 6-0 for nothing. They still have a lot of talent and heart, and a defensive leader in Brian Dawkins who simply won't let them come out flat again. This game is the season for Denver. If they lose, they are skating on thin ice to even be considered as a viable Wild Card option... because Kansas City isn't beating San Diego this weekend and Denver needs to hold on with every inch of their lives to stay within a game of the Chargers. Denver can run the ball better than you might think, so they really don't need a 100% healthy Kyle Orton. All I'm asking is for them to keep this thing close with a very shaky defense to give us part II of our 3-team teaser.

And finally, the college football rivalry game between Texas and Texas A&M. Always tend to lean towards the home underdog in big-time rivalry games, especially when we can tease them up and get them at something like +31. Though I realize Texas is clearly the superior team, there's two reasons I think the Aggies can keep it close. First, the home field advantage at Kyle Field is unlike many other stadiums in America. When the Aggie fans get going, the place literally shakes. It's going to be tough for Colt McCoy to hear the plays being called in, and being a night game, it's going to give the Aggie faithful a full day to get full on turkey and booze. They'll be nice and sauced by the time the game kicks off, adding even more rowdy noise to an already loud venue. Texas has dropped the last two games ATS when visiting College Station, including a SU loss back in 2007. The Ags are 5-1 SU at home and 4-1-1 ATS in their six games played there this season. Secondly, Texas A&M clearly has the offense to keep this game in "track meet" mode. QB Jerrod Johnson actually has better numbers than Colt McCoy as he's tossed 24 TD passes as opposed to just 5 INTs. McCoy has 23 TD passes and 9 INTs. Though their defense is somewhat of a joke, the Texas A&M offense can both run and throw rather effectively, and knowing we have 31 points to play with, I'm very comfortable backing the home team playing for pride and a somewhat decent bowl game. Aggies lose, but keep it within 31.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Marco D'Angelo
double-dime bet 106 DAL -13.5 (-110) BetUS vs 105 OAK

Has Dallas winning by 17 or more. TAKE DALLAS as MARCO'S NFL TURKEY DAY MASSACRE.

Marco Rated this Play a 4* PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

northcoast

cowboys
denver
greenbay
texas
cowboys over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

blazer

3 cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

NORTHCOAST PHONES

NC 2 Dallas Marq Denver
Opinions on GB, Over Dallas and Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-26-09

Vernon Croy

Thanksgiving Bookie Buster (7-2 NFL Run)

3* Take Denver ATS

We are getting very good line value here with Denver Thursday night even with the injuries that they have and this pick falls into one of my top NFL systems. The Broncos just lost badly at home to the Chargers because of turnovers and they have now lost 3 straight because of turnovers and mental mistakes but I look for them to bounce back big at home against the Giants Thursday. The Giants have struggled defensively over their last 3 games with opponents 30.7 ppg against them and they have also struggled on the road this season with opponents averaging 27 ppg against them. Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games as an underdog and the Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. I look for Denver to have a strong showing against the Giants this week. Grab the points with the Broncos as my NFL Bookie Buster for Thursday night