11-27-09

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS


IL has already clinched a losing season and Cincy is playing with pressure to stay undefeated
and has Pitt on deck which will decide the BE Champ and will result in a BCS bowl if they win. Hard
to stay focused on the Illini. PP says Cincy wins by 14 (line 17), but it could be even closer.
4? ILLINOIS (+) 19 CINCINNATI 33



CM has the MAC Title game on deck, but shouldn’t look past this improved Huskies team in CM
QB LeFevour’s fi nal home game. PP calls for CM to win by 15 (line 9’) with a 414-281 yd edge.
4? CENTRAL MICHIGAN 33 NORTHERN ILLINOIS 18



Pitt spoiled #2 WV’s BCS Champ hopes in ‘07, and now WV will try to derail Pitt’s BCS hopes in
the Backyard Brawl. Pitt has a huge gm with Cincy on deck, but PP calls for Pitt to win by 6 (line 1).
3? PITTSBURGH 25 WEST VIRGINIA 19

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

NC POWERSWEEP

2? Rutgers over LOUISVILLE - Rutgers is 6-2 SU in the series and their 671 yds LY were the most
ever by a Schiano tm and the 63 pts were the most Rutgers has ever scored in a BE game. Rutgers
won 63-14 (-10’) at home vs a UL team with a banged up secondary. UL had been favored in the other
3 recent meetings but the HT is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS. RU is 5-1 ATS on the BE road. For the 3rd straight
year RU trailed 14-0 to Syracuse but was unable to mount a comeback as the Knights were stunned
LW losing 31-13 to Syracuse (YES to Syr!!). RU played uncharacteristically sloppy on offense, defense
and was outcoached. RU entered the gm as #1 def in BE but all’d 424 to the #106 Syr off and the RU
off was held to 130 ttl yds!! Fr QB Savage is avg 160 ypg (54%) with a 10-4 ratio and RB Martinek (78
ypg, 5.0) will be more involved in the gm plan. L’Ville is off a 34-24 loss to USF all’g a ssn high 538 yds
to the same Bulls tm RU spanked. UL was fortunate early and often or the gm would have been out of
hand. This is UL’s fi nale but RU has slight off edge with big ST’s (#30-77) and def edges (#42-72). Last
week’s results give us good value here and the Knights rebound to fi nish the season strong.




UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK

COLORADO (+12') over Nebraska
Over the past 26 years this play has been a reader favorite and over the L/9Y the Underdog Play
of the Week has recorded 33 OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS to the incredible record! Here is this
week's Underdog Play:
The HT has won 3 in a row SU/ATS but NU is 3-10 ATS vs CU. NU has outgained CU by 166 ypg the L/4
meetings. The Huskers (8-3 ATS TY) wrapped up the B12 North Title LW beating KSU. QB Lee is avg
186 ypg (60%) with a 12-7 ratio. CU suffered yet another loss on Thurs Night to OSU LW. QB Hansen
(167 ypg, 58%, 5-4 ratio) and C Hawkins (160 ypg, 51%, 10-11) split time LW and both could play here.
NU is 6-2 ATS on the road. Both tms offenses have been stuck in neutral (NU 345 ypg, CU 306 ypg)
but their defenses (NU 281 ypg, CU 376 ypg) have been solid. In B12 North gms TY CU has been
outgained by 71 ypg while NU is +54 ypg. NU does have UT on deck for the B12 Title and this may be
a fl at spot. CU is playing in their ssn/home fi nale, and under HC Hawkins (16-32) has not had a winning
year. The Buffs are 4-2 as a HD the L/2Y and an outright upset win would not surprise us.
FORECAST: COLORADO (+) 17 Nebraska 20

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

SPORTS MEMO

DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Colorado +10
Nebraska Colorado +10
Colorado (+18) 31 at Nebraska 40 - 2008 O/U 38 12:30 pm PT (ABC)
With the Big XII North wrapped up and an offense that is averaging only 17
ppg in conference play, we are very eager to grab the double-digits with
Colorado as they play host to Nebraska this Friday. It is easy to see where the
oddmakers got this line as the Cornhuskers have conference roads wins by
14, 10 and 15. But keep in mind, the game at Kansas was a one-point score
until less than 30 seconds to go, they were shutout in the second half against
Baylor and needed 27 fourth quarter points to get past Missouri. Colorado has
not quit on the season as evident by the past three weeks with a win over
Texas A&M and close losses to Iowa State and Oklahoma State on the road.
Backing Colorado as a double-digit underdog has proved quite profitable
with poinstspread victories over Oklahoma State, Texas and West Virginia – all
of which on the road. Nebraska’s defense is no doubt as good as advertised
but the offense has been questionable at best. On the road in a meaningless
game with little ability to win by margin has us on the ugly underdog



ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Colorado +10
Nebraska Colorado +10
Colorado (+18) 31 at Nebraska 40 - 2008 O/U 38 12:30 pm PT (ABC)
Rivalry weekend in college football brings the simmering feud between Nebraska
and Colorado in Boulder. It’s been a challenging season for the Buffaloes at 3-8
while head coach Dan Hawkins sits firmly on the firing line. There is obviously
no bowl game on the horizon for the Buffaloes with this contest serving as their
postseason. They’ll look to rebound with extra rest after battling Oklahoma State
last week tooth and nail before falling by a field goal. But beyond Colorado, this is
unquestionably a play against Nebraska as a big road favorite. This is really nothing
more than a preseason game for them after clinching the Big XII North last
weekend with a huge emotional senior-led win over Kansas State 17-3. Now, with
a showdown against Texas on deck, this becomes a sandwich game in the altitude
of Colorado on a shortened week. Let’s keep in mind, the Huskers’ offense is far
from a juggernaut and laying double-digit points on the highway becomes a tricky
proposition when you haven’t even averaged 16 points per game over your last
six tilts. A decent effort from the home side has us walking away with a winner.




FAIRWAY JAY
Best Bet: Auburn +12
Alabama Auburn +12
Auburn 0 at Alabama (-14.5) 36 - 2008 O/U 47.5 11:30 am PT (CBS)
Fairway’s followers cashed a fifth straight Best Bet winner last week with the Redskins
and we’ll fire for more green as we feast on the rivalry games this weekend.
Not many rivalries bigger than the Iron Bowl, and the Tigers are shooting to take
out Alabama’s perfect season. Alabama’s defense has been dominating allowing
just 11 points per game and 239 ypg, a full 120 ypg better than Auburn. However,
Auburn features one of the nation’s most balanced and explosive offenses with 220
ypg both rushing and receiving. Auburn’s poor run defense is a definite concern
against the Tide’s excellent running game that ranks right behind the Tigers at 216
ypg. However the situation and set-up with Auburn off a late season bye hosting
their biggest rival as a double-digit underdog is too attractive to pass up. The
pressure continues to mount for Alabama as they have the SEC Championship
game on deck with a trip to the national title game at stake. Note that conference
home teams off a late season bye is a proven profit producer and if Auburn can
avoid key turnovers they should hang within double-digits in this big rivalry game




ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: West Virginia +2
Pittsburgh West Virginia +2
West Virginia 15 at Pittsburgh (+3) 19 - 2008 O/U 49 4 pm PT (ESPN2)
There isn’t much I can analyze statistically that will put West Virginia in a
brighter light compared to Pittsburgh. The Mountaineers aren’t exactly
chopped liver, with very similar ACCU-Stat rushing numbers to that of the Panthers
(WVU - 5.42 ypr/4.54 ypra; Pitt - 5.74 ypr/4.77 ypra) but overall, Pitt is
top to bottom the better team. From glancing at Pitt’s schedule, there are few
disappointing performances with the exception of the road loss to NC State.
West Virginia’s resume simply doesn’t stack up with a three-point to Cincinnati
as its truly best performance. But there are some strong factors that in
my opinion favor the home team. Pitt has been a thorn in WVU’s side with
two straight wins in the series including the famed 13-9 win as 29-point underdogs
two years ago. Pitt is also in uncharted territory with a shot to win
the Big East with a victory here and next week’s showdown against Cincinnati
at home. I don’t believe the gap between these two teams is enough not
to be interested in what should be a great situational play on the home side.

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

GOLD SHEET EXTRA

TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK
COLLEGE RELEASES

BUFFALO
One of the more enduring trends in the MAC is Buffalo’s
prowess on the road. The Bulls have covered 12 of their last 15 as
visitor, and seek to further improve upon that mark Friday at reeling
Kent State. Note that Buffalo has also covered its last 3 trips to Dix
Stadium, and as always appears as a featured play with HC Turner
Gill in the Coach and Pointspread system. Meanwhile, after a
midseason uptick the Golden Flashes have lost and failed to cover
their last two, posting a poor -12.00 “AFS” (Away From Spread)
in the process.

TULSA
Potent Tulsa provides us our last chance to go against Memphis
before the ‘09 Tigers vaporize forever, and we’re not about to miss
the opportunity when these CUSA rivals square off Friday at
Chapman (nee Skelly) Stadium. To put it mildly, Memphis has been
awful, on the verge of one of the worst-ever pointspread seasons
after dropping 9 of its first 10 (and now 10 of 11 since late ‘08) vs.
the line. Included are six straight spread losses away from home,
and a poor -13.00 “AFS” (Away From Spread) mark the last two
weeks. On the other hand, the Golden Hurricane has covered 7 of
its last 9 as host.

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

GOLDSHEET


KEY RELEASES

WYOMING by 8 over Colorado State (Friday, Nov. 27)

Wyoming 24 - COLORADO STATE 16—Perhaps enduring hostilities
vs. disliked border rival will bring out the best in CSU. But not sure what that
means these days after free-falling Rams (lost last 8, no covers last 5) plumbed
new depths of ineptitude in last week’s loss at then-winless New Mexico. Injurydepleted
Ram defense should look like an inviting target to evolving Wyoming
spread. Cowboys become bowl-eligible with win!

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

THE MAX

Pitt (-1½) @West Virginia
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Pitt is a pretty complete team and should be able to
handle a West Virginia team that is less of an
offensive threat than it was with Pat White. West
Virginia is throwing more than they did under Rich
Rodriguez but they haven’t completely abandoned
the spread option looks. Pitt defensive coordinator
Phil Bennett cut his teeth in the old Southwest
Conference (DL coach at Texas A&M) and Big 12
(DC at Iowa State) back in the early to mid-80’s, so
he knew all about the option teams like Oklahoma,
Nebraska, and Texas. Armed with that knowledge,
his Panthers have shut down the Mountaineers,
holding them to 9 and 15 points in Pitt wins the past
two years. The Panthers have been solid
defensively and this year their offense has really
caught up with the defense. Coordinator Frank
Cignetti, Jr. (offensive coordinator at Fresno State,
North Carolina, and Cal) arrived this winter and
immediately upgraded the quarterback coaching.
He’s getting a lot of credit for the (finally)
development of Bill Stull into a true threat. Still
entered the season with 11 TD passes and 10
interceptions for his career and is lighting it up with
18 TD passes and 4 INT’s on the season. Ironically
Cignetti’s dad was the head coach of West Virginia
from 1976-1979, a forgettable head man between
Bobby Bowden and Don Nehlen.
Backyard Brawl is a meaningful rivalry for both
teams and certainly would usually look to play a
rested home dog in a rivalry. But the Pitt also was
off last weekend and has really been far superior to
West Virginia this season. In conference play the
Panthers average 6.6 yards per play while giving up
4.7, for a net of +1.9. The Mountaineers gain 5.2
yards per play and give up 5.9, for a net of -0.7.
Pitt outscores conference foes on average by 18
points, WVU outscores them by 4 points. Using the
“yards per” numbers isolated by Dave Fobare for
conference play only, Pitt has the better running
game, passing game, run defense, and pass
defense.
Both of these clubs had last week off so they should be
each be ready to fire their best shot. Plenty of Pitt fans will
be in attendance (the reverse is true when the
Mountaineers travel the hour north to Pittsburgh) and in
those rivalry games the familiarity results in a little bit less
of a home field edge. Expect a solid win by a Pitt team
that has been quietly showing all season that this season
they are the superior club to their rival to the south. Pitt
by only 7.





@Auburn +10½ over Alabama
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
It seems odd now, but before #2 Alabama
waxed the Tigers 36-0 last season to end
Tommy Tuberville's reign Auburn had won six
in a row in this series. And it may seem even
odder to see a double-digit road favorite in a
big rivalry game when the underdog scores
better than 30 points per game. But Alabama
has a date for the national title game if it can
beat Florida in the SEC title game, while
Auburn has faded in SEC play, covering just
one in its last five FBS games.
This is a great emotional spot for the
Plainsmen. Facing a highly ranked team in your
final regular season matchup just amps up the
motivation even more. My database says that
teams playing in their final game of the season,
at home, getting at least 4 points and facing a
conference opponent that is ranked in the top
20 are 57-27 ATS. That includes 2-0 this
season. Last week this spot tabbed Michigan
over Ohio State - lost 21-10 as +12 - and
Northwestern over Wisconsin - Wildcats won
outright 33-31 as +7.
And there is lots of other tech stuff as well.
There is a 47-16 ATS late season "rested
homer" play active here that won two weeks
ago for me with Stanford over Oregon. Also a
96-63 ATS shutout revenge play triggered by
Bama's win last season.
And then there is the tech against Bama: a 119-183
ATS scheduling situation that is 32-50 ATS out of
sample (played against Rutgers last week) and 10-
24 ATS and 15-36 ATS "last road game" systems.
Both teams should be in good physical shape here
as both schools' ADs made sure their charges would
be well rested. Bama comes in off a gimme against
FCS opponent UT-Chattanooga, while Auburn had
the week off. Well, Auburn is better rested than
that. They've played just one competitive game in
the last month. Two weeks ago they played Georgia,
and the week before that a tune-up against Furman.
Points should be a premium here. The last nine Iron
Bowls have averaged a total of 33.5 points per game
and just two were decided by more than 10 points.
The Tide will roll in the end, but the War Eagles will
fly away with the cash. Alabama by only 3.

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

POINTWISE

College Key Releases:

Rating 1: ALABAMA over Auburn
Rating 5: BOWLING GREEN over Toledo
Rating 5: BOISE STATE over Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-27-09

Evan Altemus

5 - Boise/Nevada Over 70
4 - Illinois +21
3 - Buffalo -3
3 - Bowling Green -7.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-27-09

Anthony Redd 50 Dime

Nevada

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

THE MAXIMUS REPORT NCAAFB

LOCKS------------------Prediction

Temple -2-------------------Temple 33-25

SOLIDS :

Illinois +20 1/2---------------Cincy 35-21
Temple/Ohio OVER 46------------58

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

R.A.W. FOOTBALL

3* = Colorado
3* = No. Illinois
2* = Pittsburgh
2* = Nevada

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-27-09

ATS LOCK
4 nevada +14
4 alabama -9.5
3 illinois +21

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

DCI
Friday, November 27, 2009
Big 12 Conference
Nebraska 26, COLORADO 10
Big East Conference
Pittsburgh 26, WEST VIRGINIA 17
Rutgers 22, LOUISVILLE 14
Mid-American Conference
AKRON 38, Eastern Michigan 21
BOWLING GREEN STATE 41, Toledo 25
CENTRAL MICHIGAN 35, Northern Illinois 16
KENT STATE 25, Buffalo 24
Temple 31, OHIO 21
Mountain West Conference
Wyoming 29, COLORADO STATE 19
Southeastern Conference
Alabama 31, AUBURN 14
Conference USA
TULSA 44, Memphis 26
Western Athletic Conference
BOISE STATE 49, Nevada 35
FBS Non-Conference
CINCINNATI 37, Illinois 13

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

Tony George
Illinois +20.5

Some might think a stretch here, but with Big East foe Pitt on deck, this is a dangerous game for Cincy. Illinois has been a disappointment this year, but QB Juice Williams and company have competed well in losses as of late and have the physical strength here to keep this one a lower scoring game and stay within striking distance in the second half.

Cincy is off a 2 point and 3 point win in their last 2 games and the pressure is building as BCS talk, and the undefeated streak is on the line and in the spotlight. Cincy has not been as loose as earlierr in the season. Illinois as only allowerd 22 ppg their last 3 games, and keep this one close. Cincy disprupting the flow, starting QB Pike today, while pro prospect, he has not played in 4 or 5 weeks, and may affect chemistry. Check on QB Williams status here, but reports out of Illinois is he is playing on a slightly sore ankle.

[GoBlue]

Re: 11-27-09

MIKE LINEBACK
Early Report Friday 11/27

Premium Selections
[113] 4* Rutgers Scarlet Knights -3 -110 | 11:00a ET