Tweet
Re: 11-28-09
Marco D'Angelo
triple dime (15*) Tennessee
double dime (5*) Arizona State
dime (3*) Kansas
Marco D'Angelo
triple dime (15*) Tennessee
double dime (5*) Arizona State
dime (3*) Kansas
-
Re: 11-28-09
Malinsky Saturday Total Write Ups
4* #143 CLEMSON/SOUTH CAROLINA Over
We see the opportunity for big plays from both teams in this one, and in a serious grudge rivalry in which both can empty out their playbook, this Total has been set far too low.We chart offensive “Home Run” plays as any of 40 yards or more, and Clemson has been one of the best in the nation in that regard, with 10 already. And that is just from the offense – the special teams and defense have also added five more TD’s. It has taken some time to get the new offensive schemes installed but now we are seeing a real balance in play, with C. J. Spiller a big threat overland, and the passing attack reaching 200 yards in the last four lined games. Now they get ample opportunities against a depth-shy South Carolina defense that has not forced a turnover since October 17th. And having scored at least 34 points in each of their last six games they bring the confidence to take advantage.The Gamecocks can counter, however. That young WR corps is among the most talented in the nation, and QB Stephen Garcia has gown up in a major way this season, including four different S.E.C. games in which he threw for at least 300 yards, no small accomplishment in that league. But when the schedule includes games against four of the Top 20 in the nation in Total Defense, the overall numbers are not going to be awe-inspiring. Now they get two weeks to add some wrinkles to the playbook for this showdown, and we expect Steve Spurrier to have his offense playing aggressively from the opening series.
4* #174 HOUSTON/RICE Under
Last week we turned a 4* Under ticket with Rice, noting that a team this inept offensively should not have been priced where they were. Now we have more of the same, and we go to the well again.Only one Owl game has reached this plateau all season, that being an outing vs. Navy that reached 77. Seven of the other 10 games finished double figures below this count. And that is what happens when part of the game equation is an offense that rates 110th in Rushing, 113th in Pass Efficiency and 108th in Scoring. That is a serious anchor for any Total put in this high range. And note that even in scoring 30 points vs. U.T.E.P. last Saturday the Rice offense produced little, generating only 16 first downs and 227 yards on 66 snaps. Six Miner turnovers did the trick. But the Owls did win the game, however, and that makes it two in a row, which is an important factor here. Late-season momentum has them practicing at a crisper level, and the game plans are also being laid out to win, and not just to go through the motions – there have only been 41 passes thrown those past two games in 122 offensive snaps.Yes, Houston can score at will here. But the Cougars would have gone 6-4 to the Under at this plateau in lined games, and note that Kevin Sumlin’s focus is only about getting the “W”, and not on expanding the scoreboard. A win puts Houston in the Conference USA Championship game next Saturday, and with this already being the 10th game in as many weeks, the focus in the second half will be on keeping his key players fresh, especially since next week’s game could well end up being a road trip to face East Carolina. With the underdog slowing the pace early, and the favorite holding back late, this becomes even more of a mountain to overcome.
4* #188 SAN JOSE STATE/NEW MEXICO STATE Over
you just do not find defenses this bad in this Total range. So in a game in which we can expect Dick Tomey and DeWayne Walker to have wide-open game plans, allowing their players to go out and have some fun, this is a very low bar to step over.How bad are these defenses? New Mexico State is #105 in Total Defense and #102 in Scoring. That makes the Aggies the best on the field this day, because San Jose State is #117 and #110 in those same categories. And note that those numbers might even be a touch misleading, because in many of their games opponents were backing off with big leads. That will not be the case here, with Walker going all out to win this one, knowing that his team has no chance to compete vs. Boise State next week, and Tomey using up all of the wrinkles in his playbook in his last-ever home game.Note that while opposing teams let up late to make these awful defenses look a bit less ugly, we can not say the same about the flip side of the equation. When out-manned badly this season Walker focused more on keeping the clock moving than anything else, which explains Run to Pass counts of 43-15 for his team vs. Fresno State, 30-15 vs. Ohio State and 33-19 vs. Nevada over the past month. That changes here with a chance to go after the win, instead of just trying to hang around. Meanwhile after going up against seven likely bowl teams already, Tomey’s offense will relish this chance to step way down in class, and also to make something special happen for a well-liked head coacComment
-
Re: 11-28-09
Marc Lawrence | CFB Side Sat, 11/28/09 - 3:30 PM
double-dime bet 180 Arizona St. 3.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 179 Arizona
Analysis: Play On: Arizona State (Game 180)
Note: The Sun Devils host the Wildcats in a season ending finale for both teams in Tempe in an ideal situation for ASU. It starts with the fact that .333 or greater conference favorites of less than 10 points off an overtime loss in which they allowed more than 35 points are 0-17-1 ATS if they allow 31 or less points since the inception of college football overtime games. Add to that the fact that Arizona's two last-minute gut-wrenching losses in its last two games denied them the opportunity to win the PAC 10 and go to the Rose Bowl and you have the makings of a road favorite in no condition to put its best foot forward today. With the Sun Devils home for the holidays this season, this will be their bowl game. Grab the points. We recommend a 3-unit play on Arizona State.Comment
-
Re: 11-28-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Florida -24(-107 at 5dimes)
In Tim Tebow and the rest of these senior's last home game, look for emotions to be running high Saturday as the Gators host in-state rival Florida State. The last 2 meetings in this series haven't been close at all, with Florida winning by 33 points in 2007 and 30 points in 2008. In what used to be one of the biggest games of the year nationally, this has just become a one-sided series and that should continue in 2009. With what's at stake for Florida, they won't be having a letdown to the Seminoles. FSU is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Florida is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. Also a factor is that plays on Home favorites of 21.5 or more points, an excellent rushing team (>=4.8 YPR) against a team with a terrible rushing defense (>=4.8 YPR), in non-conference games are a remarkable 26-4 (87%) ATS since 1992. FSU cannot stop Florida's running game, so when the Gators get up huge they'll be able to keep piling on the points with their rushing attack. Take Florida and lay the points.Comment
-
Re: 11-28-09
Steve Duemig
Saturday sweep
40 Dime Georgia
This game has been a battle all week between the sharp money and the oddsmakers. Sharps have eating everything above +7 all week. The oddsmakers already know who the betting public is going to be on and that is Tech, as they have been all year long. So they have been forced to go above the 7 on several occasions and every time they do, it gets taken away by the sharps. UGA has the offense to trade points with Tech also because Tech's D is not all that good. UGA's defensive weakness is through the air which Tech doesn't normally do well in either. With this cat and mouse game that has been going on all week, let's jump onto the side of the smart money here. Wait until before kickoff and if you have a line above the 7 then take the plus points with UGA. If it is at 7 then I suggest buying the 1/2 point and getting the 7 1/2 like the sharpies have. Not to mention that Tech has the ACC Championship game to play next week in Tampa. All the more reason.
10 Dime Notre Dame
It probably will be Charlie Weiss' ;last game as the head coach of ND. Normally he stays out West and recruits following this game but he has been summoned back to South Bend immediately following the game with the rest of the team.That doesn't bode well for him. However. I don't think that his team will lay down for him as some are thinking. I think the likes of Jimmy Clausen have to want to send him out a winner. ND has not lost a game by more than 7 pts all year and now we see a line opening at 5.5 and has flown all the way to Dble Digits!!! That is the public moving that money and no one else.They have made a lot on Stanford all year, especially at home and they continue to lay it on the Cardinal even though this line has gotten way oui of hand IMO. My numbers have this game at less than a TD, which is where this line started. Now it's 10!!
5 Dime Arkansas
Can it get any worse for LSU coach Les Miles? After what he did errrr didn't do last week against Ole Miss, by not having his field goal team ready, he has opened himself up for some huge criticism and some serious second guessing as to his coaching abilities. With this game against Arkansas he is once again the second best coach on the field. I would take Petrino any day over this clown. Huge advantage to ARK with the QB position between Ryan Mallett and Jefferson, who continues to be hobbled by a bad ankle. Last week, Snead moved the ball at will and this week it will be no different with Mallett. LSU is a dismal 1-12 as a host in their last 13 in SEC.Comment
-
Re: 11-28-09
Matt Farrrgo Guaranteed Selections
(169) Georgia Bulldogs at (170) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 8:00 PM ET
**10** NCAA GAME OF THE YEAR **BIG ALERT** Georgia Tech pulled off the big upset in this series last season in Athens as eight-point underdogs. While a lot can happen in these rivalry games and the dogs are always worth a look, the Bulldogs just do not have it together this season to pull off an upset such as this. The win last season snapped the Georgia seven-game streak in this series and Georgia Tech has lost four straight in this series at home. The quick though right away is revenge but the Yellow Jackets have one thing on their mind and that is to start a streak of their own. They have the team, coaches and system that has finally gotten over the hump and they are ready to begin their own domination on this rivalry. There is the ACC Championship next week and that is important of course, laying an egg here means little to look forward to next week as even a win will seem like a big letdown if it does not take care of business here. This is going to go down as one of the biggest disappointments of a season for Georgia in a long time. The Bulldogs are bowl eligible but they have beaten only one team that is bowl eligible since mid-September and that is Auburn at home by a touchdown in a game it was outgained in. The other three wins prior to that came against FCS Tennessee Tech, Vanderbilt and Arizona St., not exactly the best resume heading into this game. Making matters worse is that Georgia has stayed home the last three games and has not had to travel since playing Florida back on Halloween in a 41-17 loss. Looking at some recent logs shows Georgia has been pretty good over its last three games but that game against Tennessee Tech has skewed everything and should not be taken into consideration. The Bulldogs were ranked 13th in the AP Preseason poll and now they are ranked 42nd in the latest Sagarin ratings showing what a huge fall it has been. Georgia Tech has had two weeks to prepare for this game while Georgia is coming off a game against Kentucky and one that it actually lost. If those roles were reversed, it would make a huge difference since preparing for the Yellow Jackets rushing attack can sometimes be a two-week preparation. Last year, the Yellow Jackets rushed for 409 yards and that was with two weeks that Georgia had to prepare. This season, the Bulldogs have allowed 150 or more yards rushing in seven of 11 games after allowing 150 or more yards in five of their last six games last season so going back Georgia has given up at least 150 yards in 12 of 17 games. There was a great article on ESPN that traced how average Georgia has become. Since winning the 2008 Sugar Bowl over Hawaii, the Bulldogs are just 16-8 and that includes a 2-6 record against the top teams that they play (Alabama, Florida, Georgia Tech, LSU and Tennessee). Over the last 20 games, Georgia has allowed 30 or points in half of those and this is from a defense that allowed no more than 19 ppg in a season between 2000 and 2006. The defense is allowing 26.6 ppg this year which is the worst since allowing 25.8 ppg in 1999 and the stop unit has allowed more points each year since 2005 (16.4 to 17.6 to 20.2 to 24.5 to 26.6). Georgia Tech’s defense has been very solid with the exception of a couple inconsistent efforts. The good news is that while the Georgia defense has taken a step back, the offense has done the same. The Bulldogs are 60th in scoring offense and 73rd in total offense and they have gone over 400 yards only three times and one of those was against Tennessee Tech. The running game is horrid while Joe Cox has had his struggles at quarterback, completing less than 56 percent of his passes while tossing 14 interceptions. Georgia is 119th in the nation in turnover margin while Georgia Tech is 28th and that makes every bit of difference right there. The seventh ranked Yellow Jackets will bring their highest ranking to the in-state rivalry since their 1990 national championship season when they were ranked second and beat the Bulldogs, 40-23. This shows how special of a season it is and one that they do not want to flounder by peaking ahead to next and a possible berth in the Orange Bowl. Georgia did put up big numbers last week against Kentucky but it has not been able to be consistent with it of late as it is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Georgia Tech is 15-1 ATS in its last 16 games when it rushes between 250 and 300 yards and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games after rushing for 200 or more yards in its previous game. The Bulldogs have won the last for meetings in Georgia Tech by 14, 7, 17 and 14 points so the Yellow Jackets will be going after some big payback. 10* (170) Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsComment
-
Re: 11-28-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W ido w W iseg uy 2 0 09 S un Be lt G AM E OF THE Y EA R on LA-Monroe +3.5(-105 at 5dimes)
LA-Monroe and Middle Tennessee are each bowl eligible, but chances are the Warhawks need to improve on their 6-5 record to reach a bowl berth while 8-3 Middle Tennessee State is already a shoe-in. That's why the edge goes to the home dog in LA-Monroe here as they clearly need this win more. This is also a revenge game for the Warhawks, who have lost their last two meetings with MTSU by 3 points each, 24-21 in 2008 and 43-40 in 2007. It's safe to say that LA-Monroe will be fired up and ready to go Saturday. LA-Monroe is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring their opponents by 20.0 points/game. Yet they are the home underdog here Saturday? Give us a break! The Warhawks are 5-1 (83%) ATS in their last 6 home games. The Warhawks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss. Take LA-Monroe and the points.Comment
-
Re: 11-28-09
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
4* on Stanford -10(-104 at 5dimes)
Notre Dame has fallen on some hard times of late, and it's clear that they aren't the same great team that everyone thought they'd be at the beginning of the season. Meanwhile, Stanford has out-performed their expectations, and now they have a chance to finish off their season with a big home win Saturday. Notre Dame won't be able to stop their running game. The Fighting Irish are giving up 160 rushing yards/game and 4.6 yards/carry this season. Stanford is rushing for 219 yards/game and 5.4 yards/carry. Not to mention they are a great passing team as well, throwing for 217 yards/game and 8.8 yards/attempt. Stanford is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons. Notre Dame is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season. Take Stanford and lay the points.Comment
Comment