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Re: 11-29-09
6* W ido w W iseg uy 2 0 09 NFL Non-Conference G AM E OF THE Y EA R on N ew Yo rk J et s -3(-105 at spbook)
The Jets are clearly hurting right now, but with their struggles has come some nice value this Sunday as they host the Carolina Panthers as just a 3-point favorite. Carolina had a chance to get back into the playoff picture last week, but they lost at home 17-24 to the Miami Dolphins. Now they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way, and their schedule is very daunting with road games against the Jets, Pats and Giants and a home meetings with the Vikings. The Jets can get back into the race over the next 4 weeks in games they should win and will likely be favored in. Everything will come together for them Sunday knowing that this is their last chance to get the season turned back around. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Jets have the better run defense which is a big reason we are siding with New York. The Jets allow 111 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry this season, including 109 yards/game and 3.7 yards/carry at home. Meanwhile, the Panthers give up 131 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry overall, and 133 yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry on the road. This is where the game will be won, which is on the ground. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and there's really only one team you could think about backing Sunday and it's New York. Take the Jets and lay the points.
5* W iseg uy NFL "S TE AL" of the Week on S eat tle S eah awks -3(-104 at 5dimes)
No Marc Bulger for the Rams gives them no chance to beat the Seahawks in Week 12. The Rams have been competitive of late with Bulger running the show, but they just aren't the same team without him. And even with him most of the way, they are just 1-9 this season. Seattle already beat St. Louis 28-0 at home earlier this season, and not even home field advantage can save the Rams this weekend. Seattle is 9-0 S.U. & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with St. Louis, and that cannot go ignored here. The Rams are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC West. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Seattle has basically beaten the teams they were supposed to beat this season, and lost to the teams they weren't supposed to beat. The Rams classify as a team they should beat this week, and we fully expect the Seahawks to take care of business running away. Take Seattle and lay the points as the biggest steal this Sunday in pro football.
4* on S an Fr anc isco 49ers -3(-115 at bookm)
We are getting a solid price here Sunday on the 49ers at home as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is just 2-3 on the road this season, losing by 10.2 points/game. The Jaguars are not as good as their record indicates, because they have been escaping with wins over bad teams. They beat the Rams by 3, Chiefs by 3, Jets by 2 and Bills by 3 in their last 4 wins. The 49ers are better than all those teams with maybe the exception of New York, and they'll prove it on the field Sunday. Though the 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, all 4 of those losses have come by 7 points or less so they are playing better than their record indicates. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the 49ers and lay the points.
4* on M ia mi D olp hins -3(-105 at bodog)
With Buffalo having nothing going their way of late, they now find themselves with a 3-7 record and out of the playoff hunt. They have nothing to play for the rest of the way, while Miami has worked their way back into the playoff picture by winning 5 of their last 7 games after an 0-3 start. They smell blood in the water Sunday and we fully expect the Dolphins to pounce on the Bills early and to run it out the rest of the way behind Ricky Williams, who has been spectacular of late in carrying the load. He finished with 119 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in their 24-17 road win over the Panthers last week. Also giving the Dolphins a big edge here is the fact that they've had 3 extra days to prepare for Buffalo after playing on a Thursday last week. Buffalo had lost back-to-back games by 21 and 24 points before putting up a fight against Jacksonville last week in a 15-18 loss. But after they led most of the second half, they allowed the Jaguars to score the game-winner in the final minute and now all of the life has been sucked out of the Bills. They won't recover in time to put up a fight against a superior Dolphins' team Sunday. Miami is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo has a huge injury list right now, and on it is Marshawn Lynch who had to leave last week's game with a shoulder injury. The Bills are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games, so there isn't much of an advantage for them on their home field. Take the Dolphins and lay the points.
4* on H ous ton T ex ans +4(-110 at SIA)
Houston has suffered some heartbreaking losses to the Colts recently, but we are predicting they get over the hump Sunday. In their last 3 meetings with Indy, they have lost by 4, 6 and 3 points. There comes a time when a team says enough is enough, and Houston does that this weekend as they come together as a team and likely upset the Colts at home. Houston is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The Texans are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The Colts are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. AFC South opponents. The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Take Houston and the points.
6* W ido w W iseg uy 2 0 09 NFL Non-Conference G AM E OF THE Y EA R on N ew Yo rk J et s -3(-105 at spbook)
The Jets are clearly hurting right now, but with their struggles has come some nice value this Sunday as they host the Carolina Panthers as just a 3-point favorite. Carolina had a chance to get back into the playoff picture last week, but they lost at home 17-24 to the Miami Dolphins. Now they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way, and their schedule is very daunting with road games against the Jets, Pats and Giants and a home meetings with the Vikings. The Jets can get back into the race over the next 4 weeks in games they should win and will likely be favored in. Everything will come together for them Sunday knowing that this is their last chance to get the season turned back around. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Jets have the better run defense which is a big reason we are siding with New York. The Jets allow 111 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry this season, including 109 yards/game and 3.7 yards/carry at home. Meanwhile, the Panthers give up 131 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry overall, and 133 yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry on the road. This is where the game will be won, which is on the ground. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and there's really only one team you could think about backing Sunday and it's New York. Take the Jets and lay the points.
5* W iseg uy NFL "S TE AL" of the Week on S eat tle S eah awks -3(-104 at 5dimes)
No Marc Bulger for the Rams gives them no chance to beat the Seahawks in Week 12. The Rams have been competitive of late with Bulger running the show, but they just aren't the same team without him. And even with him most of the way, they are just 1-9 this season. Seattle already beat St. Louis 28-0 at home earlier this season, and not even home field advantage can save the Rams this weekend. Seattle is 9-0 S.U. & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with St. Louis, and that cannot go ignored here. The Rams are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC West. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Seattle has basically beaten the teams they were supposed to beat this season, and lost to the teams they weren't supposed to beat. The Rams classify as a team they should beat this week, and we fully expect the Seahawks to take care of business running away. Take Seattle and lay the points as the biggest steal this Sunday in pro football.
4* on S an Fr anc isco 49ers -3(-115 at bookm)
We are getting a solid price here Sunday on the 49ers at home as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is just 2-3 on the road this season, losing by 10.2 points/game. The Jaguars are not as good as their record indicates, because they have been escaping with wins over bad teams. They beat the Rams by 3, Chiefs by 3, Jets by 2 and Bills by 3 in their last 4 wins. The 49ers are better than all those teams with maybe the exception of New York, and they'll prove it on the field Sunday. Though the 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, all 4 of those losses have come by 7 points or less so they are playing better than their record indicates. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the 49ers and lay the points.
4* on M ia mi D olp hins -3(-105 at bodog)
With Buffalo having nothing going their way of late, they now find themselves with a 3-7 record and out of the playoff hunt. They have nothing to play for the rest of the way, while Miami has worked their way back into the playoff picture by winning 5 of their last 7 games after an 0-3 start. They smell blood in the water Sunday and we fully expect the Dolphins to pounce on the Bills early and to run it out the rest of the way behind Ricky Williams, who has been spectacular of late in carrying the load. He finished with 119 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in their 24-17 road win over the Panthers last week. Also giving the Dolphins a big edge here is the fact that they've had 3 extra days to prepare for Buffalo after playing on a Thursday last week. Buffalo had lost back-to-back games by 21 and 24 points before putting up a fight against Jacksonville last week in a 15-18 loss. But after they led most of the second half, they allowed the Jaguars to score the game-winner in the final minute and now all of the life has been sucked out of the Bills. They won't recover in time to put up a fight against a superior Dolphins' team Sunday. Miami is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo has a huge injury list right now, and on it is Marshawn Lynch who had to leave last week's game with a shoulder injury. The Bills are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games, so there isn't much of an advantage for them on their home field. Take the Dolphins and lay the points.
4* on H ous ton T ex ans +4(-110 at SIA)
Houston has suffered some heartbreaking losses to the Colts recently, but we are predicting they get over the hump Sunday. In their last 3 meetings with Indy, they have lost by 4, 6 and 3 points. There comes a time when a team says enough is enough, and Houston does that this weekend as they come together as a team and likely upset the Colts at home. Houston is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The Texans are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The Colts are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. AFC South opponents. The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Take Houston and the points.
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