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Re: 11-29-09
* #709 BOSTON over MIAMI
Malinsky 11-24 -62.5 units in NBA
We get the benefit of a short price here from both directions, and that means a prime opportunity to step in to a setting in which the Celtics bring significant matchup advantages.The oddsmakers are forced to sell Boston short because of a current 2-9 ATS run, but note that it does not really tell us much about the state of affairs with Doc Rivers and his team – they were favored by at least -6 in every one of those games, and seven of them were in double figures. ATS failures in high-line games may be an issue for them all season, because the focus is merely on winning and moving forward, saving as much energy as possible for games that they hope to be playing in June. Now they are playing for only the third time in seven days, which means plenty of physical energy, and with Ray Allen re-joining them yesterday they will treat this one seriously – this is the lowest spread they have been involved in since opening night, and the challenge they perceive gets their focus at a higher level. They still rate #2 on our best defensive set of ratings, and #6 on offense, and that is despite coasting often with leads as big favorites.Meanwhile Miami is priced as though the 9-6 record is legitimate, but the Heat are a troubled item right now. A current 3-5 SU run has to be studied more deeply, with all three of the wins coming by a single point, including escapes vs. the Nets (ouch) and Hornets, and three of the losses coming in double figures. The problem is an offense that is consistently breaking down because they lack a creator at PG, and Dwayne Wade is finding double-teams to be a matter of course. In five of the last six games he has been held to 42 percent shooting or lower, and his frustrations are starting to show - ``At the end of the day, you take what the defense gives you. You only could force so much.” Now they face the most fundamentally-sound defense in the league, which exacerbates all of those issue, and on one of the first nights this season in which we expect to see the Celtics bring their “A” game they are capable of choking the Miami offense, and getting a win by far more than this short pointspread is calling for.
* #709 BOSTON over MIAMI
Malinsky 11-24 -62.5 units in NBA
We get the benefit of a short price here from both directions, and that means a prime opportunity to step in to a setting in which the Celtics bring significant matchup advantages.The oddsmakers are forced to sell Boston short because of a current 2-9 ATS run, but note that it does not really tell us much about the state of affairs with Doc Rivers and his team – they were favored by at least -6 in every one of those games, and seven of them were in double figures. ATS failures in high-line games may be an issue for them all season, because the focus is merely on winning and moving forward, saving as much energy as possible for games that they hope to be playing in June. Now they are playing for only the third time in seven days, which means plenty of physical energy, and with Ray Allen re-joining them yesterday they will treat this one seriously – this is the lowest spread they have been involved in since opening night, and the challenge they perceive gets their focus at a higher level. They still rate #2 on our best defensive set of ratings, and #6 on offense, and that is despite coasting often with leads as big favorites.Meanwhile Miami is priced as though the 9-6 record is legitimate, but the Heat are a troubled item right now. A current 3-5 SU run has to be studied more deeply, with all three of the wins coming by a single point, including escapes vs. the Nets (ouch) and Hornets, and three of the losses coming in double figures. The problem is an offense that is consistently breaking down because they lack a creator at PG, and Dwayne Wade is finding double-teams to be a matter of course. In five of the last six games he has been held to 42 percent shooting or lower, and his frustrations are starting to show - ``At the end of the day, you take what the defense gives you. You only could force so much.” Now they face the most fundamentally-sound defense in the league, which exacerbates all of those issue, and on one of the first nights this season in which we expect to see the Celtics bring their “A” game they are capable of choking the Miami offense, and getting a win by far more than this short pointspread is calling for.
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