12-4-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Doc 12/4-12/5

5 Unit Play. #8 Take Central Michigan -13 over Ohio U (Friday 8 pm ESPN 2) This will be the second to last game QB LeFevour plays for the Chippewas. He will get a chance to play on Sundays because he is that good. But the quarterback position is not the only strength of this team, as the Chippewas have a balanced attack. True NIU and Toledo did put up points against them, but that came when the game was already out of reach. As for Ohio, they are a well coached team, but not as strong as their record would indicate. They were outgained in wins over NIU and Buffalo and enter this game in Detroit with QB Scott and RB Garrett questionable. I do expect them to play since this game has great importance but they will not be at full strength.
Look for the Chippewas to make a statement that they are far and away the best team in the MAC. QB LeFevour shines and so do the Chips, as they win this game going away and likely will return to Detroit for the Pizza Pizza Bowl. CMU 42, Ohio U 17.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Jim Feist

25-Star NBA Situational Slam Dunk Game of the Year - Friday!

Take: (514) NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
Reason: 25-Star Situational Slam Dunk Game of the Year: Hornets.

New Orleans is a weak road team, but oh, are the Hornets tough at home (6-2) and a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS their last four home games. They have a full two days off before this one, coming home after a West Coast run. Emeka Okafor has been a force in the middle along with former All-Star David West up front, while forward Peja Stojakovic is back this game. All-Star guard Chris Paul is back at practice and could see some time, too. Minnesota (2-16) is a young team with all kinds of injury problems. Point guard Mike Conley (shoulder strain) is back but not 100%, while Timberwolves forward Kevin Love could make his season debut this weekend recovering from a fractured left hand. Young basketball teams often struggle on the road, and even the coach admits that: "Once again our youth and inexperienced was exposed," Wolves coach Kurt Rambis said after the last game. Minnesota is 3-10 ATS its last 13 games, and 3-6 ATS its last 9 at New Orleans. New Orleans is 2-0 SU/ATS its last two games as a favorite and on a strong 6-1 ATS the last 7 games, plus getting much healthier. The Hornets are 8-4 ATS the last 12 games as chalk of 11 or more points. A great spot for the fired up home team as the fans get to welcome back Paul. Play the Hornets.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Del Genio---Central Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Parsons--Central Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Freese----Central Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS....10 DIMER - XAVIER MUSKETEERS 30 DIMER - CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS

Just can't go against the Chippewas in this game, as this is their 3rd appearence in this game in the last 4 years, and they have already won and covered the other 2 championship games, including drilling Ohio back in the 2006 season.

I have my reservations with the Bobcats, as they have relied too much on the big play and the turnover this season, and the Chipps are a team that just won't beat themselves. Not only that, but Bobcats backup QB Theo Scott is wheeling around on a bum ankle. That just isn't going to cut it against Dan LeFevour who can light you up from pretty much anywhere on the field.

Eventually this game gets away from the Bobcats.

Central Michigan is 20-9 their last 29 tries when favored, and they have also gone 8-3 against the spread overall this season.

The moment is fitting for senior LeFevour and his team to capture another MAC Championship Game. Go ahead and lay the wood with the Chippewas.

10 DIMER - XAVIER MUSKETEERS

No, this isn't your same Xavier team that is going to make it look easy night in, and night out, but I think they will be just fine tonight against the Golden Flashes, especially at home where they seldom stumble.

The Musketeers just dropped their first pair of games over the weekend in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, Florida. Losing to Marquette and Baylor is nothing to be ashamed of, as both are quality programs. This will be a step down in competition for the X-Men, and a big step up for Kent, as they haven't exactly been playing the Baylors and the Marquettes of the world to open their season.

Kent may be 5-2, but they have beefed up against the likes of Morehead State, Rochester, and Samford.

Look for Xavier to enjoy being back at home, and to come up with a big double-digit win and cover in this one.

Lay it!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

A.REDD

15-Dime - Ohio

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

6* Widow Wiseguy Ohio/CMU MAC Championship Surefire on Ohio +13(-103 at 5dimes)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

RAS

UC Riverside +2
Montana St. +1
Montana -8

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

DOC NBA

3-Unit Play #506 Take Oklahoma City +4 Over Boston (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

5-Unit NBA Game of the Week #511 Take Milwaukee +3 ½ Over Detroit (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

National Sports Service Picks

3* C. Michigan -13 over Ohio (NCAAF)

3* Washington -4 over Toronto (NBA)

3* L.A. Lakers -11 over Miami (NBA)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Ferringo

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #527 Colorado (+7.5) over Oregon State (11 p.m.) AND Take St. Peters (+12.5) over Iona (7:30 p.m.)


1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #542 Montana (-3) over Northern Arizona (9 p.m.) AND Take #525 Troy (+14) over Auburn (8 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

Wunderdog

Game: Ohio vs. C. Michigan (Friday 12/04 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 53 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

Dan LeFevour is the MAC's all-0time leader in passing yards and he is the main reason the Chippewas are double-digit favorites here. His team scored 34.2 points per game this season and Ohio scored 26.7, so this total is set in the 50s. But, the fact is, Central Michigan did most of their offensive damage at home this year. At home they put up 476 yards and over 50 points per game. But away from the cozy home field, those numbers drop precipitously to 381 yards and 22.6 points per game. Their defense however remained stout, giving up 18 ppg on average, home and away. I like this one to go UNDER.

Game: Houston at E. Carolina (Saturday 12/05 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on E. Carolina +3 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)

E. Carolina defends their CUSA championship in this game against the high-flying Cougars. While Houston's offense can certainly get it done, their defense is among the worst in the nation. When they are playing bad teams, it doesn't matter. But, when facing a legitimate team, they can struggle. In the second half of the season, Houston played two solid programs in Tulsa and UCF, both on the road as they are here. They lost one of those outright and were 0-2 ATS. So, while they have shown the ability to absolutely crush mediocre competition, and play well at home, there are questions when they head to the road vs. a formidable opponent. On the road this Cougars teams is allowing a ridiculous 36 points per game, so expect E. Carolina to have success when they have the ball. And, given that the Pirates defense has allowed just 18 points per game at home, they should also have success slowing down Case Keenum and the Houston offense. Houston is 0-6 ATS since last season when coming off back-to-back wins. Over the past three seasons they are 0-7 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or less. Meanwhile, E. Carolina is 21-10 ATS as an underdog under Skip Holtz. I like the Pirates at home plus the points.

Game: W. Virginia at Rutgers (Saturday 12/05 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on W. Virginia +1.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

West Virginia opened as a 2.5 point favorite but now find themselves getting points in this game. I think the oddsmakers had it right the first time. The Mountaineers aren't playing for the Big East championship, but they are going Bowling. And, a win here will likely earn them a spot in a prestigious New Year's day game instead of something much less exciting. A 3-point loss to Cincinnati on November 13 is what kept them out of the Championship game, but we can look for positives in that game. The Mountaineers were double-digit dogs to a very powerful Bearcats team and it was a fight as they lost by just a field goal. West Virginia also lost to South Florida two games prior and Auburn earlier in the year. The only loss that was a bad one was vs. S. Florida. Otherwise they have won every game they were supposed to win this season and they aren't being asked to cover a big number here. They are 2-1 ATS this season as a dog and they are coming off a confidence-building win over Pittsburgh. West Virginia has won 15 straight vs. Rutgers and are 30-4-2 all-time in the series. I like the Mountaineers to get it done here.

Game: Florida vs. Alabama (Saturday 12/05 4:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The most anticipated game of the year is here with #1 Florida taking on #2 Alabama. This game may make the National Championship game pale in comparison. The winner gets to play in that game and the loser's hopes of a national title are gone. With the stakes so high, expect high-intensity and high nerves - both helping a play on the UNDER. Mark Ingram, Alabama's Heisman-hopeful running back injured his hip and was limited to just 30 yards and 1.9 yards per carry in Friday's game vs. Auburn. Oh, and these defenses are pretty good. Florida owns the #1 defense in the country and it's the reason they are here. This team has allowed a ridiculous 9.8 points per game! No opponent has scored more than 20 points on the Gators all season. Bama's defense is right there, ranked 3rd in the nation. They are 2nd in the country in points allowed, behind Florida at 10.8 points per game. The most this team gave up this season was 24 - and that was all the way back in early September in their opener. So, we have the top two defenses in the land, giving up a combined 20.6 points per game, and this total is set twice that high. Yes, these are good offenses, but not elite offenses. The defenses should dictate. The Tide are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 games vs. teams that rush for 200+ yards per game. High intensity and low-scoring is what I expect in this game.

Game: California at Washington (Saturday 12/05 6:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 58 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The fact that Cal is just a TD favorite over Washington here says a lot about both teams. California was ranked 12th in the nation to start the season and was supposed to challenge for the Pac-10 championship. But, after blowout losses to Oregon and USC, that was over. They come into this game however off strong performances vs. Arizona and Stanford, holding those teams to 44 combined points. Washington is 3-1 at home vs. conference foes, holding USC, Stanford, Arizona and Washington state to an average of just 20 points per game. Cal's offense has averaged just 23.8 points per game over their last four. Their last game vs. Stanford saw 62 points scored and under head coach Jeff Tedford, this team is 14-5 UNDER on the road coming off an OVER and 19-10 UNDER after a game in which 60+ points were scored. I expect this one to go UNDER the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-4-09

teddy covers:

bobcats over 181.5 (*regular*)