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Re: 12-5-09
Kelso:
50 units Alabama +5
10 units La Tech -23.5
5 units Pitt +2
4 units West Virginia +1.5
3 units Arizona +7
Kelso:
50 units Alabama +5
10 units La Tech -23.5
5 units Pitt +2
4 units West Virginia +1.5
3 units Arizona +7
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Re: 12-5-09
Bettors World
5* Key Release
Alabama +6 over Florida
We've been waiting for this game for 364 days. It was 364 days ago Saturday that undefeated Alabama at 12-0 played 11-1 Florida in the SEC title game with Florida winning the game 31-20 as 10 point favorites, which cost Alabama the chance to play for a National Title. Fast forward one year, and the circumstances surrounding this game could not possibly be any better. Both teams are undefeated at 12-0. They will be playing first, for the SEC Title, and 2nd, for a chance to play in the BCS Title game. Currently, leading sportsbook Bet Jamaica has Florida favored by -5.5 with a total of 41.
It's extremely rare in sports to get a 2nd chance of this magnitude. Last years loss by Alabama was devastating. Yet here they are, a year later, with a chance to make things right. A chance to accomplish what they failed to accomplish one year ago. There are many teams in all sports throughout history that would do anything for a 2nd chance like this. Few get the opportunity. Alabama needs to make the most of it. We think they will.
This years game breaks down much differently than last years. Yes, we bet Alabama a year ago. You can read our write up on that game here. We made the play on Alabama a year ago, despite the fact that the numbers we rely on the most, the numbers that we feel are most indicative of a teams true strength, revealed that the line on the game was actually dead on. You can go back and read that article for yourself, but we will revisit the breakdown briefly here.
A year ago, the yards per point numbers against common opponents suggested that Florida was 9.5 points better than Alabama. There was no question Florida was the better team. Florida's numbers were off the charts. 9.4 on offense and 24 on defense for a +14.5 overall. I've been looking at these types of numbers for 26 years folks. Trust me when I tell you those numbers were phenomenal. Alabama had decent numbers of 11.6 on offense and 16.8 on defense for a +5.2. Good numbers, not great.
The difference between the two teams numbers a year ago suggested that Florida was about 9.5 points better than Bama. Florida won by 11, so as you can see, the numbers were correct. From a strictly numerical standpoint, we should have stayed off the game. However, we felt we had some motivational edges that would make up for the talent difference. Alabama led 20-17 after 3 quarters, and trailed by just 4 with under 3 minutes to go before Florida scored the spread busting touchdown with 2:50 to play in the game.
But this years numbers tell a very different story. There were 7 common opponents this year with both teams obviously going 7-0 against those opponents. But unlike a year ago, where Florida had the better numbers across the board in every category, this years numbers are fairly even. They both averaged 400 total yards of offense. Florida averaged 31 points against these common opponents to Alabama's 29. They both held these teams to an average of 11 points per game. They both averaged 6 yards per play offensively and gave up 4 yards per play defensively.
When you look at the yards per point numbers against these 7 common opponents you see a much different story than a year ago. This year, it's Alabama with the edge. Florida has a 13 on offense and a 20 on defense. Alabama has a 14 on offense and a 25 on defense. So, +7 for Florida, +11 for Bama, edge to Bama by 4 points. Remember, last year these numbers favored Florida by 9.5 and the line was 10. This year, the numbers suggest Bama should be favored yet we're getting 5.5 to 6 points.
Bottom line here is the correct line on this game, meaning the true difference between these two teams from a numerical standpoint, would be anywhere from pickem to Alabama by a field goal. Yet this game opened Alabama -4.5 and was bet up to -5.5 and -6. So the oddsmakers got it right from their perspective. They simply want to attempt to get equal action both ways (a rarity). Had they opened this game pick em, sportsbooks would have been overwhelmed with Florida money. So, the right line from their perspective. From our perspective as players though, the wrong line, and the perfect spot to step in and get some value.
We not only have the numbers working for us but we also have the motivational edges. Revenge can be huge in the right spot. This is the right spot. As mentioned at the start if this write up, it's rare to get a 2nd chance like this, yet here it is, on a silver platter for the Crimson Tide. For these kids, it's the opportunity of a lifetime. Expect them to leave it all on the field on Saturday afternoon.
From a betting perspective we'll sum it up like this for you. Wagering is a long term proposition. You expect to win every wager you make of course, but realize that if you're good, you'll end up hitting around 55-58% over the course of many years. In the past 26 years as a professional handicapper, a game with the same dynamics as this one has come up plenty of times. I've won roughly 56% of those. Slightly higher actually with numbers that are this favorable. Those percentages will likely hold up over the next 26 years. This is just one play in the big scheme of things. It may win, it may lose. But the fact remains, it's a damn good bet.
It's also important to point out that we are not making this play because we think Alabama can hang within the spread and cover. That's not the way to go about betting underdogs. The feeling here is that Alabama wins this game straight up. The points are a bonus. Having said that, you still want the best line you can get. As of this writing on Tuesday, there are a couple of +6's on the board with most books at 5.5. Monitor the lines using the Bettorsworld Free Live Odds feed and make sure you get the best possible number you can.
This play qualifies as are highest rated play of the year.
A 5* Key Release Alabama +6 or more over Florida.
Also note that there is value on the money line here as well at +210 or better. I can tell you with confidence that over the years, with numbers like we see in this game from Bama and Florida, in similar games, there is no way one team wins at a 2-1 clip over the long run. If you took +210 on every game with similar numbers over the last 20 years you would have been handsomely rewarded. Remember, long term profits. Not instant gratification. That's what separates winning bettors from losing ones.
Good Luck, Enjoy the game.
3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas (Good a +14)
We'll admit to having a weakness for big dogs in huge games. But we won't play a game based solely on that. The game has to qualify using all of the same methods we use to handicap any other game. In this instance, Nebraska qualifies as we will detail below. Currently Sportsbook.com has Texas -14 with a total of 43.5.
One often overlooked aspect of handicapping a game like this, is determining whether one "program" can compete with another. Not just whether this years edition of a given team can compete, but can the program in general, compete. In other words, is one school, in this case, Nebraska, capable of recruiting the talent to compete on the same level as the talent Texas is able to recruit? You'll find plenty of matchups in college football where one program simply dominates another. Perhaps once every decade, the lesser program will pull an upset, but by and large, there is a talent gap that will rarely close.
Nebraska passes the talent test. We aren't referring to great Nebraska teams of 20 years ago either. We're referring to recent history. One need only look at the last few games between these programs to determine whether the talent is there to compete. These two last played in 2007 and 2006. In 2007 it was a Texas team that went 10-3 and a Nebraska team that went 5-7. Final score was 28-25 Texas. In 2006 it was a 22-20 final in favor of Texas in a year that saw Nebraska go on to lose 21-7 to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. It was Texas 31-7 in 2003 and then another 3 point win for Texas in 2002, 27-24, to round out this decade.
In fact these two teams have played 8 times since 1996. If you had given Nebraska 14 points in each of those games, their record against the spread would have been 7-1. Now, some may say, what a team did in 1998 has very little to do with what a team does in 2009. But that's not entirely true. Again, what we're trying to determine, is whether Nebraska is capable if recruiting the talent to compete with Texas. Had Texas blown out Nebraska the last 5 times they played, we'd say that perhaps Nebraska can no longer compete. But as you can see from the examples above, that is not the case. 3 of the last 4 games were decided by a field goal or less.
Now on to this game. Again, we refer to talent levels, heck, this the Big 12 Title game. Texas is a great team and at 12-0 is playing for more than the Big 12 Title. The National Title is obviously on the line here. Nebraska has earned the right to play in this game. At 9-3, this is a fine team. Sure, no National Title for the Cornhuskers. Just a nice Bowl game. But wouldn't the Big 12 Title be sweet while at the same time putting a kink in the Longhorns plans.
Regular readers of our stuff know where we are going next. Common opponents. For these two teams, there were 6. Texas was 6-0 against those teams averaging 38 points per game while giving up 15. Nebraska was 5-1, averaging 21 points per game and, like Texas, giving up 15 on average. The total yards tells the same story. Texas has an easier time moving the ball and also held opponents to fewer total yards. Simple numbers can tell us simple things. The conclusion, Texas is a better football team. But are they 14 points better?
The yards per point numbers against these common opponents suggest the margin is closer than 14. Texas has an offensive number of 9.9. Fantastic. Means they had no problem moving the ball AND putting it in the end zone. Nebraska has a ypp offensive number of 12.9. Not as good as Texas, but 12.9 is a good number. Defensively, Texas has a 17.1 while Nebraska has a very nice 19.6. Since Texas held opponents to fewer total yards on average, those numbers suggest Nebraska did a good job in the red zone. They gave up a few more yards but managed to keep teams out of the end zone.
Subtracting the defensive numbers from the offensive numbers, Texas is a +7.2 while Nebraska is a +6.7. Fairly even, with Texas having the offensive edge and Nebraska having the defensive edge.
Bottom line here is that Texas is the better team, but perhaps not 14 points better. The numbers suggest the gap is closer than that. Past history, and the talent level of these teams over the years also suggests the gap is closer than 14 points. Lastly, when you factor in the motivation of playing live on National Television, in prime time before every football fan in the nation, with the Big 12 Title on the line and the chance to play spoiler, Nebraska becomes an attractive side.
No question Nebraska needs to keep it close all the way through if they want a chance to win it in the end. If they fall behind early they will be in trouble, as they aren't built to come from behind against an offensive power house like Texas. This needs to be similar to the Texas Oklahoma game for Nebraska to have a chance. In that game, Oklahoma held Texas to 16 points in a 16-13 loss.
We're looking for both defenses to come up big on Saturday Night as they have all year long. We can't pass up the points here. As of this writing there are some 14.5's on the board. That hook may come in handy.............3* Nebraska +14.5 over Texas.Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
CKO
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average
11 *RUTGERS over West Virginia Late Score Forecast: *RUTGERS 30 - West Virginia 17
Rutgers got caught napping on the road two weeks ago at Syracuse. Now, the Scarlet Knights are looking to snag the Mountaineers emerging from their own party mode after the Mounties’ satisfying victory over bitter rival Pittsburgh in Morgantown. WV has lost three of its last four road games (losses at Auburn, South Florida and Cincy) while winning only at Syracuse. Contrariwise, Rutgers is happy to be closing the season at home after playing four of its previous five games on the road! The penetrating Scarlet Knight defense is tough vs. the run (16th in the nation) and hassles opposing QBs (Rutgers is 16th in sacks). HC Greg Schiano deserves credit for his steady development of talented true frosh QB Tom Savage (only four ints.!) and for augmenting his ground game with Wildcat plays for big (6-3, 215) WR Mohamed Sanu.
10 FLORIDA over Alabama Late Score Forecast: FLORIDA 31 - Alabama 13 SEC Championship in Atlanta, Georgia
Alabama mentor Nick Saban has reportedly been preparing for this inevitable rematch ever since bitter, come-from- ahead 31-20 loss vs. Florida in LY’s SEC title game, but still strongly support a special Gator squad, led by the winningest senior class in SEC history (47 victories!). Now that Florida’s superb orchestrator Tim Tebow (17 of 21 for 221 yds., 90 YR vs. Florida State) is making more downfield strikes to veteran targets TE Hernandez (5 catches for 83 yds. vs. ‘Noles) & WR Cooper (5 TDC last 5 games), balanced Gator attack (236 ypg rushing, 215 passing) effectively stretches the aggressive Tide defense, unable to contain UF on 2 long TD drives in crucial 4th Q year ago. Even if Bama’s star RB Ingram (only 30 YR vs. Auburn) unfazed by hip pointer, doubt unfinished, pressured QB McElroy (Gators have SEC-best 34 sacks) effectively works play-action vs. ball-hawking Gator 2ndary (51%, 20 ints., just 6 TDs), featuring lock-down CB Haden (4 “picks”). And keep in mind, Urban Meyer’s squad has won by 6 pts.-or-more in 38 of past 39 triumphs.
10 TEXAS over Nebraska Late Score Forecast: TEXAS 35 - Nebraska 10 Big XII Championship in Arlington, Texas
Nebraska has one of the toughest defenses (only 11.1 ppg) in the country, and its defensive front—led by disruptive DTs Ndamukong Suh (71?2 sacks) & Jared Crick (9 sacks)—is arguably the best. However, the Cornhusker offense (92nd in total offense; 93rd in passing) is limited, and the NU ground game doesn’t provide many long gainers. This raises the very relevant question: What happens if prolific Texas QB Colt McCoy gets the Longhorns off to a fast start? Or, what if Texas’ own hard-charging defense (fifth in the nation overall, first vs. the rush, third in sacks) gets off to its own fast start? The Horns defense and STs have collected 11 return TDs TY. Six of the last seven Big XII title games have been decided by three TDs or more. So it’s no big surprise if that scenario repeats.
NINE-RATED GAMES: BOISE STATE (-461?2) vs. New Mexico State—Broncos looking to lock up a 13-0 regular season; need “beauty points” for BCS purposesComment
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Re: 12-5-09
CKO Basketball
*SAN ANTONIO 109 - Denver 96 RATING - 10
*SAN ANTONIO over Denver (NBA)...San Antonio gaining momentum after an injury-plagued start. Spurs have won 5 straight, covering 4, and Manu Ginobili’s return to action puts the San Antonio trio of all-stars back on the court together. Denver appears to have been overachieving early, but Nuggets have dropped 5 of last 6 against the points on the road. Although Carmelo Anthony proved to be a real force in November, things won’t come as easily as his Nuggets are required to visit tough venues such as the AT&T Center.Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
Northcoast Power Plays
4.5? PITTSBURGH 32 CINCINNATI 26
4? ILLINOIS 30 FRESNO STATE 23
4? LOUISIANA TECH 32 SAN JOSE STATE 7
3? RUTGERS (+) 20 WEST VIRGINIA 18
3? BOISE ST 53 NEW MEXICO STATE 0
3? ARIZONA (+) 22 USC 26
3? CALIFORNIA 29 WASHINGTON 21Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
Joyce Sterling
College Football Saturday
San Jose St.+23.5 vs Louisiana Tech 2:00 EST
Revenging last year's 21-0 loss. Coming off a 13-10 win. They score points in this game
. Winning Head Coach Tomey is leaving and players play hard.
Arizona +7 vs USC
10 STAR Game
The Wildcats have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and 4 of the last 5 here.
USC is 2-8 ATS vs conference revenge and have failed to cover 5 straight as favorites of less than 13. USC offense is sputtering averaging only 20.8 points per game.
South Florida +7 @ Connecticut
The Huskies are emotionally drained and have lost the stats in each of their last 3 games allowing season high yardage in 2 of those games.Comment
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Re: 12-5-09
Triple Threat Sports
Sport: College Football
Game: DIRECT SERVICE WINNER - South Florida vs U Conn
Date/Time: 12/5/2009 6:25PM EST
Pick: Connecticut Huskies
Reason:
2.5* on U Conn (-) over South Florida
Bulls put a TON of attention and effort into last week's game against Miami and come up short. Now they have to travel to Storrs at night in December, with a 60% chance of snow and a gametime temp of 35 degrees that will only drop as the night goes on. A quick check shows that the Sunshine State Bulls are 2-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in anything close to "cold weather" conditions, and that is exactly what they are going to be facing here. Lay the points in this oneComment
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Re: 12-5-09
Marc Lawrence
triple-dime bet 332 Alabama 5.0 (-110) BetUS vs 331 Florida Analysis: Play On: Alabama (Game 332)
Note: A classic matchup in the toughest conference in the land finds top-ranked Florida hosting No. 3 Alabama for the SEC championship and a ticket to the BCS Championship game. Last year the shoe was on the other foot when the 12-0, No. 1 ranked, Tide met the Gators in this same game. Florida rallied late to pull out the win and advance to the BCS title game, en route to a national championship. While Florida has put up impressive numbers this season the fact of the matter is they have faced only ONE ranked team. On the other side, Alabama has squared off against FOUR ranked opponents in 2009. To carry matters further, the Gators averaged 42.1 PPG this season in games against sub .600 opposition. In games against .600 or great opponents, the Gators averaged 25.2 PPG. Florida head coach Urban Meyer has met with great success but a closer examination of his record draws this parallel: in games in which Meyer's teams have been favored by more than five points they are 68-5 SU and 43-27-3 ATS. In games in which Meyer's teams have been favored by five or less points they are only 9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS. Meanwhile, Alabama coach is at his best when seeking revenge, where he is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS in his career when playing of a win as a favorite or dog of less than seven points when facing an opponent off a SU and ATS win - with eight SU wins as an underdog! Toss in the fact that defending national champions that are favored by less than seven points against avenging foes with a win percentage of .800 or more are 1-3-1 ATS si~nce 1989. The clincher is the fact that undefeated teams in Conference Championship games off a SU and ATS win are just 3-3 SU and 0-6 ATS when off a win of seven or more points. Grab the points as the Tide rolls into the BCS title game. We recommend a 4-unit play on Alabama.Comment
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