12-7-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

ATS Lock club

Monday
4 Green Bay -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

Dave Malinsky

4* #366 GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE

We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

5* BEST BET
GREEN BAY over Baltimore by 14

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

Craig Davis Monday's Lineup

30 Dime --- Ravens-Packers OVER

Forget the side (though I favor the Packers) folks, the best play on the board tonight is the total... and I like it over. Public perception is that we have two of the best defenses in the league facing off on cold night at Lambeau, and 43 points is simply too high. I disagree. I think we have two very dynamic offenses who have "big play" potential every time they are on offense, and it won't matter how good the opposing defense seems to be.

Yes, I agree, defense wins championships, but this isn't a championship game. And if you paid any attention to Monday night games this year, you've seen a ton of high scoring affairs. Aside from a few games here and there, Monday night scores have averaged in the neighborhood of 47 points per game... which puts us over the total by at least a field goal tonight.

Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jermichael Finley and a few others at coach McCarthy's disposal... and those guys have averaged 27 PPG over their last three and 27 PPG for the season, so it's not like they've just recently started scoring points. They can score at any spot on the field, they can score with their defense and they clearly know how to change turnovers into points, whether the defense scores themselves or sets the offense up in good field position.

Baltimore can score in bunches as well, and since they've been kinda quietly offensively lately, you gotta believe the general public is thinking UNDER all the way. But a look at this offense from earlier in the season sees a team that scored 30 or more points in five of their first seven games, including games with San Diego, Minnesota and Denver.

The OVER is 8-2 in Baltimore's last 10 Monday games and 8-2 in their last 10 as a dog. In Green Bay's last 19 home games, the OVER has hit 13 times and it's hit 18 of the last 25 Packers' games when they are listed as the favorite. Sure, there's a small chance the defenses will come to play, but I believe both teams are desperate for a win and will try to light a fire under the offenses' butts on each and every possession. This one could be OVER the number by halftime, so you can understand why I like the over in tonight's contest. Final score is somewhere around 27-24, which puts us easily over the total tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

A REDD

25 dime Ravens

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

Doc's

4 Unit Play. #716 Take Auburn over Virginia (8 pm CSS)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

National Sports Service

4* Green Bay -3.5 over Baltimore (NFL)

3* Portland -4 over N.Y. Knicks (NBA)

3* Auburn -4 over Virginia (NCAAB)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

Randall the Handle

Atlanta –1.05 over TORONTO Pinnacle
Proving the adage that there's no better deodorant that winning, the Leafs have erased most of the negative feelings of their brutal start over the past few games and seem to have a new energy about them. However, a few wins doesn’t mean the Leafs are devoid of problems and there’s a couple worth pointing out here. First, and this always comes up when discussing the Leafs, there’s the goaltending, where Joey Macdonald, Vesa Toskala or Jonas Gustavsson has not shown any consistency whatsoever. All three can’t be trusted. Secondly, the Leafs home record is the worst in the NHL. Toronto has just two home wins in 13 games. The problem here for the Leafs in relation to the aforementioned is that the Thrashers have been wickedly good on the road with nine wins in 12 games. Furthermore, Atlanta has one of the most potent attacks in the game and those two things combined make this a very challenging assignment for the Maple Leafs. Play: Atlanta –1.05 (Risking 2.10 units to win 2).

Minnesota +1.25 over PHOENIX Pinnacle
Two hot teams go at it here. The Wild have reeled off five in a row while the Coyotes have won four straight. The difference is that the Wild are taking back a tag and they’re scoring at an eye-opening rate. In fact, Minnesota has scored five goals in each of the past three games and in four of its past five games. They’ve badly outplayed some decent teams and included in their current run is two straight wins over the then red-hot Predators. They scored five times in both those wins over that stingy defense in Nashville. Bottom line is you just can’t ignore a price on the Wild when you consider what they’ve accomplished recently. They’re definitely feeling it right now. Play: Minnesota +1.25 (Risking 2 units).


NFL
GREEN BAY –3½ over Baltimore Pinnacle
This game will most definitely have an impact on the playoff race, as both teams are in a position to make it and both will decide its on fate based on the last five games. What’s interesting here is that the Pack last played on Thanksgiving Thursday and thus, they’ve had an extra four days off. So, let’s have a look at the teams that played on Thanksgiving Thursday and had the extra time off. In the first Thanksgiving game the Packers went into Detroit. Yesterday, the Lions covered in Cincinnati. The second game featured Oakland playing in Dallas and the Raiders won outright as a 14½-point pooch. Dallas lost in New York but the Giants also played on Thanksgiving, in Denver, so that one is a wash. As for the Broncos, well they torched the Chiefs in what might’ve been the most lopsided game of the day. Thus, all teams that played with the extra rest this late in the year all showed up yesterday with great results. Also consider that the Ravens played last Sunday night in a prime time match-up against its biggest rival, the Steelers, and won in OT. That was a huge and emotional win and that makes this assignment even more difficult. Man for man, these two are pretty damn close but the Packers are at home, they’re much more rested and they’ll feature the best QB on the field here. Oh, by the way, the Ravens once feared defense is no longer feared at all. Play: Green Bay –3½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

Wunderdog Horse Selections:

FAIR GROUNDS Race #2 at 1:55 PM Eastern

Top pick: #8 (PRETTY DRINK) - Colt won easily as the favorite last out and was claimed by Tom Amoss for $15,000. New barn is great off the claim (29%) and turns him around quickly raising him slightly for his first start vs. winers. The top pick.

2nd pick: #7 (Dynamic Time) - Speedy gelding drops into a claimer after showing some speed last out in an allowance in his first start in two months. Looks set for a top try.

3rd pick: #6 (Woodrow Call) - Hails from the always dangerous barn of "Bret" Calhoun. Gelding has been freshened-up for the past 75 days after facing some tough "open" competition in his last pair. Drops into a claimer for the first time and moves back in with fellow "Cajun" breds.

4th pick: #5 (Justintime) - Sharp maiden win over at Delta Downs almost a month ago and that win continued his improving performance line. Good barn (Sam Breaux)and gelding can contend today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

DAVID BANKS

MONDAY DECEMBER 7 2009

NFL
8:30 Green Bay Packers -Pts
Over

NBA
7:30 Portland Trailblazers -Pts
9:00 Utah Jazz -Pts

NCAABB
9:00 Texas -Pts

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

R. Ferringo

1.5-Unit Play. Take #725 Siena (-4.5) over Iona (7:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)


1-Unit Play. Take #713 North Texas (+13) over Texas A&M (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #717 Long Beach State (+21.5) over Texas (9 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #713 North Texas (+18) over Texas A&M (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7) AND Take #727 Western Carolina (+12.5) over Bradley (8 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #727 Western Carolina (+12.5) over Bradley (8 p.m.) AND Take #711 Brown (+24.5) over Providence (7 p.m.)


0.5-Unit Play. Take #713 North Texas (+18) over Texas A&M (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7) AND Take #725 Siena (+0.5) over Iona (7:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

Insider Angles

The Oklahoma City Thunder have come a long way since last season, and we are looking for them to win by double-digits Monday night when they host the Golden State Warriors.

The Thunder have a winning record at 10-9 this season after having one of the worst records in the NBA last year, and the biggest difference has been the improvement of the defense, which is allowing only 95.4 points per game this season after having one of the worst defenses in the league in 2008-09, when they allowed 103.1 points per contest.

Granted, the Thunder lost by 18 points here at home to the Boston Celtics Friday, but the Celtics have done that to every team this year and Oklahoma City is simply not yet ready for that level of competition. However, they are back in their own element here facing the Warriors, and the fact that Golden State plays no defense should make it easier for the Thunder to build a nice lead here and allow there defense to put this game away.

The Warriors are just 2-8 on the road, where they are allowing a disgusting 116.6 points per game. A weaker Oklahoma City team still managed to beat the Warriors 107-100 the last time Golden State visited here, and we see no reason why the Thunder cannot add a couple of points to that winning margin in this spot, given their improved defense.

That would translate to around a 10-point victory, good enough to cover this spread at home.

NBA Pick: Thunder -7

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

6* W ido w W iseg uy Ravens/Packers M ond ay Night A T S "B LOO D B AT H" on G ree n B ay -3(-112 at 5dimes)

Despite injuries, the Packers are showing a lot of heart and finding ways to win games. Most folks would look at this game and think that Baltimore has the better defense, while the Packers have the better offense, but that's simply not the case. Get this, the Packers own the #2-Ranked defense in the league, giving up just 281.5 yards/game. Baltimore owns the #10-ranked defense at 308.9 yards/game. Advantage Packers. Green Bay also flaunts the #6-Ranked offense in the league at 382.0 yards/game. Looking down we find Baltimore as the #13-Ranked offense at 353.4 yards/game. That's certainly and improvement from year's past, but the defense is getting older and is no longer the same stop unit they once were. Baltimore needed overtime to beat a Steelers' team playing without Ben Roethlisberger at home last week. Green Bay has had 10 days' rest to get ready for the Ravens having not played since their 34-12 win over Detroit on Thanksgiving, which is also a big factor favoring the Packers. The Ravens have allowed 242 passing yards/game on the road this season and now they are up against Aaron Rodgers, who is averaging 263 passing yards/game this year. The Ravens allow 7.1 passing yards/attempt away from home, while the Packers average 7.5 passing yards/attempt overall. That's where the advantage really lies in this game, with the Packers' passing game against the Ravens' poor pass defense. Green Bay is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season in the second half of the season since 1992. They are winning by an average of 10.2 points/game in this spot and covering the spread 92% of the time. Take the Packers and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-7-09

doc sports

3-Unit Play #703 Take Portland/New York OVER (7:30 p.m. EST, Monday) The Knicks haven’t had a game where the combined score was under 200 in their last seven games. The average score for games involving the Knicks during that span has been 223 points. The Knicks offense has been playing very well (averaging 110 PPG in their last five) and their defense is predictable awful (107 PPG allowed during the same span). Portland is more of a defensive club but they haven’t been that great in that area lately, allowing 99 PPG in their last five and they have allowed 105+ in three of their last four games. This team isn’t normally very explosive offensively but we think the home team will set the pace tonight and that the Blazers will get their points and we really think both teams can get above 100 tonight.