12-8-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Marc Lawrence's





Matchup: Phoenix at Dallas
Time: 8:35 PM EDT (Tue)
Play: Phoenix (+4.5 -110)
Line Source: CAL NEVA
Posted on: December 7, 2009 @ 10:17:14 PM EST

Play On: Phoenix Suns (Game 513)
Note: Suns meet the Mavs in Dallas knowing that Phoenix is 14-3 SU and ATS in games off a loss of 20 or more points, including 6-0 SU and ATS versus an opponent off back-to-back losses. With Dallas just 1-6-2 ATS as a favorite in this series when the Suns own a win percentage of .666 or greater, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Phoenix.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Randall the Handle

NY Islanders +1.64 over PHILADELPHIA Pinnacle
It sure is nice to see the Flyers buying into a new system under its new coach, Peter Laviolette. Since taking over two games ago the Flyers dropped the first one, 8-2 at home to the Caps and last night they managed 15 shots on net in a 3-1 loss to the Canadiens. Now the Flyers will play its third game in four nights against a rested and dangerous Islander team and they’ll play it as a -1.75 favorite. Are you kidding me? Win or lose, this one is a giant overlay and must be played for three reasons. One, the Flyers are a complete grease-fire right now; two, the tag and three, its goaltending remains as unreliable as any team in the league. Play: NY Islanders +1.64 (Risking 2 units).

OTTAWA -½ +1.00 over Montreal Pinnacle
This one is a play only if Jaroslav Halak is in net for the visitor. Thus, I’ll update or delete this play as soon as that info becomes available.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

RAS
San Jose State (-3.5) 1.00 UNIT

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

K B H o o p s
5* New Jersey Nets UNDER 192 **P O D**
5* New Jersey Nets +7
5* Kansas State -5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

T.Covers CBB Watch And Win On ESPNU (2-0 Sweep Yesterday) $20
Teddy Covers is starting to heat up and if your not with him, your not padding your wallet. His college hoops season is off to a 60% start including a 2-0 sweep yesterday. Watch and win on ESPNU for just $20 and it is guaranteed to win or his next hoops report is on the house.

Kansas State

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

DOC SPORTS NBA

2-Unit Play #504 Take Toronto -7 Over Minnesota (7 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
Writeup Coming Soon
4-Unit Play #505 Take Milwaukee/Boston UNDER 195 ½ (7:30 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
Writeup Coming Soon
4-Unit Play #509 Take New Jersey/Chicago UNDER 192 ½ (8 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
Writeup Coming Soon
3-Unit Play #511 Take Sacramento +9 Over New Orleans (8 p.m. EST, Tuesday)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Wunderdog

Game: Iowa at Northern Iowa (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Iowa +10 (-110)

This will be an intensely played game as the Panthers’ annual clashes with Iowa State and Iowa usually are. I respect the Panthers’ talent and they certainly could win the MVC, but playing in a BCS Conference is never easy regardless of the talent because there is usually enough to stay in the game. Last year Iowa tore this team apart while the Panthers also lost to Iowa State. This year they slipped past Iowa State, but by just three points, and I don't see them taking a Hawkeyes team out by double-digits here. The Panthers are 0-4 ATS as a home favorite in this range and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 out-of-conference tilts. The dog has prevailed in this series in six of the last eight, so I'll go with Iowa in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Jb 4 star on chicago bulls

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Maximus

LOCKS:
Take Sacramento St. Hornets +14 1/2 vs. USC Trojans. This game is played at the Galen Center on the campus of USC in Los Angeles, CA and is scheduled to start at 10:30pm EST
EVALUATION: Here we have teams with losing records facing up, and the line is totally out of wack here. USC is 2-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 6, and are having a hard time putting points up on the board. Averaging just 64.5 pts a game at home we don’t see why USC is a 15 point favorite. We think USC’s turnovers 15.8 to assists 8.8 should stand up well for our theory on this game. Yes Sacramento St. has a 4-5 SU record, but they have covered 6 of their last 7 and are 5-0 ATS on the road this year. The Hornets are scoring 64.5 pts average on the road, and we see this as a much closer game than the line states.
PROJECTION: USC 62 SACRAMENTO ST. 60

Take EVANSVILLE ACES +14 vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers. This game is being played at the EA Diddle Arena in Bowling Green, KY and is scheduled to begin at 8:00pm EST
EVALUATION: The Hilltoppers come in this game with a 3-3 SU record and are 1-5 ATS. They are only averaging 65.5 pts a game at home, and have dropped tough games to South Carolina, Indiana St., and LSU. They are only averaging 34 rebounds a game and they turn the ball over an average of 14.2 times a game while only dishing out 9.2 assists a game. The Aces are 4-2 SU and are only 1-2 ATS, but we see this number as just being way to large for this game. We think the Aces defense is pretty solid, and they have 8 more rebounds a game than the Hilltoppers. We don’t think the Aces can win this game, but we see them keeping it much closer than the spread.
PROJECTION: WESTERN KENTUCKY 67 EVANSVILLE 59

Take IOWA HAWKEYES +9 ½ vs. Northern Iowa Panthers. This game is being played at the Mcleod Center on the campus of Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls and is scheduled to tip off at 8:00pm EST.
EVALUATION: Northern Iowa comes in with a 5-1 SU record, but have only been able to cover 3 of those 6 games ATS. The only game that N. Iowa was able to breath easy in was when they Beat Boston College at Boston College, but they had to shoot 64.8% from the field to do this. In their other games they have been only shooting 36.47% and had a hard time scoring points. Weather at home or on the road, the Panthers have trouble scoring a lot of points and we just don’t think they will cover this 9 ½ point spread. Yes, the Hawkeyes are only 3-5 SU, but playing tough opponents such as Virginia Tech which they lost by 6 and Wichita St and Texas, we see Iowa’s recent offensive outburst of 73,64, and 80 to help them cover this number.
PROJECTION: NORTHERN IOWA 68 IOWA 64

Take TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS -2 vs TCU HORNED FROGS. This game is being played at the Daniel-Meyer Coliseum on the campus of TCU in Fort Worth, TX and is scheduled to tip off @ 7:30pm EST
EVALUATION: TCU has dropped 3 games early in the season so far to Arizona St, Nebraska, and Louisiana Tech, and against fairly decent competition they have lost all 3. Pat Knight is actually starting to coach just like his father did, and the Red Raiders are sitting at 8-0 SU and have been really playing good defense. With 5 days rest off their wild win off #10 Washington in OT, We really like the way the Red Raiders have finally decided to start playing some defense this year. The Red Raiders were actually predicted to finish last in the BIG 12, and if this continues we expect the Red Raiders to actually compete in the conference this year. TCU beat Texas Tech last year 85-80 on Tech’s home court and we look for their two big men John Roberson and Mike Singletary to use this as motivation for the team and propel the Red Raiders to win this ballgame and keep their perfect record in place.
PROJECTION: TEXAS TECH 68 TCU 61

SOLIDS: ---------------------------------------------------Projection
KANSAS ST. -5.5 vs. Xavier _________________________________Kansas St. 83-71
WISCONSIN – MILW +14 ½ vs. Marquette __________________Marquette 75-67

OVER/UNDERS
OVER 119 Iowa/N. Iowa ___________________________________132

MONEYLINE
CS NORTHRIDGE +225 ___________________________________CS Northridge 76-70
PEPPERDINE +115 _______________________________________P EPPERDINE 71-70

LOCKS:
Take DENVER NUGGETS -3 vs. Charlotte Bobcats. This game is being played in Charlotte and is scheduled to begin @ 7:05pm EST
EVALUATION: Charlotte has been defending their home floor pretty well, but we just don’t think they have enough fire power to keep up with the Nuggets in this game. In their last 5 games, they have only put up over 95 points once, and their 94.9 home scoring average makes it tough for us to find any way we could not take this small number on the Nuggets and bring home the cash. Denver has been playing inspired ball in their last 4 games beating opponents by an average of over 15 points a game, and Denver has only lost 1 time in the last 4 years in Charlotte. We like that Denver has scored over 106 points in 3 of their last 5 and after a low scoring output last night of only 93, we look for the Nuggets to put a lot of points up tonight.
EVALUATION: NUGGETS 106 BOBCATS 93

SOLIDS-----------------------------------------Projection
NETS +7 vs. Bulls ___________________________________Bulls 91-88
UNDER 191 Bulls/Nets _________________________________179

OVER/UNDERS
OVER 193 Cavs/Grizzlies _______________________________199

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

6* W ido w W iseg uy N B A R oad Wa rrior of the Month on Sa crame nto Ki ngs +9(-110 at bookm)

The Sacramento Kings continue getting little respect from odds makers. This team is scoring 104.8 points/game and only getting outscored by 0.6 points/game on the season. The Hornets are getting outscored by 3.7 points/game on the year, and and this team shouldn't be getting as much respect as they are. The Kings are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall this season. Sacramento is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing a home game this season. The Hornets are 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons. N ew O rle ans is 4-18 ATS (-15.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Take the Kings and the points.


5* W iseg uy C B B G am e of the N ig ht on T em ple -3.5(-110 at bookm)

The 6-2 Temple Owls travel to 2-5 Miami (Ohio) tonight in what figures to be an absolute mismatch in the road teams' favor. Temple already has 3 road wins this season, thanks in large part to tremendous defensive effort as they are allowing just 55.4 points/game through five road games. The Redhawks are not playing good defense this year as Miami (Ohio) allows 70.6 points/game on the season. Temple is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a road favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. The Owls are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. We'll side with the better defensive team tonight in what should be a one-sided affair. Take Temple and lay the points.


4* on D en ver N ug ge ts -3(-102 at 5dimes)

Pretty easy choice here as the Nuggets are clearly the better team with a 16-5 record this season, and they are just a small favorite to beat the 8-11 Bobcats. The Nuggets are at full strength right now with K en yon M art in returning to the lineup, and also J.R. Smith contributing key minutes that they didn't have from him early in the year. As a result, Denver is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Nuggets are 41-21 ATS (+17.9 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. Take Denver and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Illinois -3.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the small home favorite:

A.J. Ogilvy scored 16 of his 19 points in the second half as Vanderbilt survived for a 67-54 victory against DePaul on Saturday; I expect another "letdown" this evening.

The achilles heel of the Commodores is its "road play": dating back to last season its 8-15 SU its last 23 away from friendly confines.

On the other side of the court: Demetri McCamey made the most of his foul-limited minutes, scoring 23 points to help Illinois escape with an 84-77 win over Boise State on Saturday night.

The Broncos managed to chip away at the Illini’s double-digit second-half lead, using a 13-4 run to get within two points with 20 seconds left in the game.

Illinois (6-2) converted all six of its free-throw attempts in the final seconds to seal the win.

Not only is Illinois 6-2 SU its last eight to start the season, it always plays tough in front of the home town crowd, 5-1 SU its last six at home.

Bottom line: The Fighting Illini matchup well against the Commodores; look for ILLINOIS to improve to 3-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and for Vanderbilt to fall to 1-2 ATS in the month of December.

7* ILLINOIS

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Craig Davis
Tuesday's Lineup
25 Dime --- BUTLER BULLDOGS

So far, this is the best college basketball game I've seen since the season started for two reasons. First, I think the line is just low enough for a neutral site game that it's begging you to take Georgetown. Secondly, while Butler has been busy playing teams like Clemson, Minnesota, UCLA and Northwestern (all from big conferences), Georgetown has been beating up on American U, Mount Saint Mary's (no, not the good St. Mary's), Lafayette, and Savannah State.

It's pretty simple if you ask me... the Hoyas have yet to be really challenged. The only legitimate competition they've had thus far has been Temple, a game in which they won 46-45 as a 10-point favorite. They couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in that game and if Temple had been able to shoot even 34% in that game, they would have walked out of the Verizon Center as a winner. Georgetown, when actually faced with a team that had a pulse, was taken to the wire and was forced to play poorly enough to lose. The Hoyas shot just 35% from the field, 16% from three-point land, and 65% from the free throw line in that game, and I believe that's what will happen to this offense when they play a legitimate, ranked opponent like Butler tonight.

The Bulldogs come in off just their second home game of the season, having beaten both Davidson and Valpo rather handily. The rest of their games have been either road games or neutral site games, and the competition they've faced has been murderous compared to Georgetown's. A one-point loss to a very good Clemson team that will challenge Duke, Wake, and UNC for the ACC title. A two-point win over a struggling, yet respectable UCLA squad with a ton of potential, and a very good Minnesota team that will finish in the top 5 of the emerging Big 10 Conference. Their three true road games were all wins... over Northwestern, Ball State and Evansville.

When you compare these two schedules, it's not even close. Georgetown hasn't even really been challenged all season, having played four straight non-lined games since November 21st. You can call that smart scheduling if you'd like, but I call it setting this team up for failure. Butler is already battle-tested... Georgetown is not. This game could easily come down to a battle at the line, and my money is all over the Butler Bulldogs who shoot 75% from the stripe as opposed to Georgetown's 67% (50% away from home).

Butler returns every single player from last year's team that won the Horizon Conference, including Conference Player of the Year Matt Howard. Howard averaged 15 points and 7 rebounds per game last year, but he knows he doesn't have to do it himself. The Bulldogs had four players in double figures in their last win including sophomore F Gordon Hayward (13 PPG last year) and sophomore G Shelvin Mack (12 PPG last year). This team is deep, experienced, and very disciplined... it's no surprise they are picked to win the conference again this year, and it's definitely not a surprise we find them in the top 25.

The wrong team is favored here boys... the wrong team is favored. Bulldogs by 5-7 easily.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Ron Raymond

Montreal +135

When ANY NHL Team played as a home team - During the month of December - Last 2 years - 3 games in 4 nights - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; The Sens are 6-13 SU in this role the last 2 years.

*Note: Sens playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and their last game was in Anaheim, which means they have been travelling the last 24hrs, their body clock is out of whack, good value on the Habs.

Take Montreal.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-8-09

Evan Altemus

New Orleans -7.5

This game is a big revenge situation for New Orleans, as they were blown out by Sacramento
just a few games ago. New Orleans has star point guard Chris Paul back from injury, and
the team played well in his first game back against Minnesota. The Hornets have played
well at home, while the Kings have been horrendous on the road. Sacramento's biggest
has been their horrible defense. They have given up triple digits in all but two of their
road games this season, and that streak should continue again on Tuesday. The Hornets and
Chris Paul have had several days to prepare for this game, and I expect them to come out
with a very focused effort against a team that has been horrible on the road all season.
Look for New Orleans to get a blowout home win with a healthy Paul.

3 UNIT SELECTION HORNETS