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Re: 9-30-08
RAS Totals
One play Tuesday:
#301 Florida Atlantic/Middle Tenn St OVER 48.5 for 1 UNIT
Good luck,
Edward
RAS Totals
One play Tuesday:
#301 Florida Atlantic/Middle Tenn St OVER 48.5 for 1 UNIT
Good luck,
Edward
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Re: 9-30-08
Southcoast Sports
Next NFL/NCAAF Release will be on Wednesday at 4:00 P.M. CST!!!
301 Florida Atlantic 2 1/2 (Buy 1/2 Point to 3 if able.)
3-Units (7:00 P.M. CST)
Hey guys, this line opened at Middle Tennessee -3 and pretty much stayed there until earlier this morning, at which time the line dropped to Middle Tennessee -2 1/2. This is a pretty significant move, considering that it takes a substantial amount of money to move the line off of the 3. When the number moved I checked with two different sources to see where the public money was. One source had 68% of the public money on Middle Tennessee St. , while the other had 80% of the public money on Middle Tennessee. This makes Florida Atlantic an obvious Sharp Money Move. My job now is to try and back this play with obvious stats and trends that would help support the play on Florida Atlantic. We know that Florida Atlantic has a coaching edge with the great Howard Schnellenberger calling the shots. Florida Atlantic is also the reigning Sun Belt Conference Champions, and have last years Sun Belt Player of the Year in Rusty Smith running the offense. Florida Atlantic opened the season on the road against powerhouse Texas(L), followed by a win at home against UAB. Then they hit the road once again playing at Michigan St.(L) and Minnesota(L). Middle Tennessee has played 4 games also, getting a solid win at home against a decent Maryland squad, but have losses against Kentucky, as well as conference losses to Troy and Arkansas St. It's hard to compare stats for this game considering that Florida Atlantic has played a much tougher schedule, but one thing worth mentioning is that Middle Tennessee has failed to go over 100 yards rushing against both Troy and Arkansas St., both teams of which are members of the Sun Belt Conference. Of course Middle Tennessee has better looking defensive stats, but has played a much easier schedule. Of importance here is that Schnellenberger is very good when playing inside the conference, going 7-2 against the spread in his last 9 games, while Middle Tennessee St. has struggled to a 0-4 record in their last 4 games against conference opponents. Finally, let's not forget that this is a Prime Time ESPN2 match up in front of a Televised national audience. Middle Tennessee had just over 22,000 fans in their previous home games against Troy and Maryland. After going 0-2 in conference play and 1-3 to start the season, look for about the same number or possibly less for this nationally televised event.
Take Florida Atlantic 2 1/2 for 3-Units. (Buy 1/2 Point to 3 if able.)
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Re: 9-30-08
Marc Lawrence (Playbook)
Tuesday, September 30th
MID TENN ST over Fla Atlantic by 6
Both teams have seen great expectations for the ’08 season go miserably awry.
FAU has been a particular disappointment: off a bowl-winning 8-5 campaign,
the Owls were picked as preseason favorites in this year’s Sun Belt championship
race but have struggled to a 1-3 start against some tough competition (routed
52-10 by Texas). An identical 1-3, the Blue Raiders were hoping to erase last year’s
5-7 record and return to postseason play under well-liked coach Rick Stockstill.
Guess what? The loser here is in serious jeopardy of fl aming out early and MTSU
enters the game carrying the added pressure of an 0-2 start in Sun Belt play. FAU
QB Rusty Smith was 2007’s conference Player of the Year and should unload on
a Blue Raider secondary that gave up 292 yards and 3 TDs through the air to
Arkansas State 10 days ago. And since Middle Tennessee rushes for a miniscule
69 YPG – out of 346 yards of total offense – you KNOW they’ll be launching a
few salvos of their own. Howie Longname owns the better personnel but his
Owls have been outscored by a disturbing 140-62 margin so far. With the Boys
in Blue up against the conference wall and FAU traveling for the 4th time in 5
games, we’ll cast a vote in favor of the Murfreesboro Raiders.Comment
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Re: 9-30-08
ProCappersNetwork
302 Middle Tennessee State -2 1/2 Even (3 Unit Play)
302 Florida Atlantic/Middle Tennessee State Under 52 1/2 -1.10 (3 Unit Play)-FAU has played the tougher schedule on paper but MTSU has taken on some tough teams also. I think the key point that is not being covered in this game tonight is that MTSU is already 0-1 in the Sun Belt Conference and a loss here tonight will pretty much make them an outside shot candidate to win the conference this year. MTSU's main problem this year has been in running the ball but FAU has not performed particularly well against the run this year. On paper the game appears to be a pretty even but in these conference games these teams really get up for one another and the familiarity with each other usually makes for a competitive lower scoring affair. I think MTSU will win this one tonight with their defense and the game stays Under the posted total.
The Tigers looked good yesterday until an injury to Freddy Garcia forced Leyland to bring in the bullpen and they blew up in losing 8-2 so I had an 0-2 day for a loss of 4 units yesterday! Here is my selection for the Minnesota/Chicago Play-In Game:
Minnesota +1.38 (3 Unit Play)-I was bouncing back and forth on the total in this game and decided just to stay off of that completely and go with the underdog Twins in this spot. Nick Blackburn will get the start here today for the Twins and his numbers are downright ugly in this last three starts but he just faced the White Sox last week and held them to two earned runs in five tough innings. He pitched five times against the White Sox so far this year and he is 2-2 in those starts with a 5.28 ERA which also includes a relief appearance. He has struggled at Comiskey Park though going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA but I just have a feeling he will be able to give the Twins a good start today. The White Sox are countering with John Danks who was rocked in his last start and will be making his first career start on three days rest. Danks has struggled badly at home against the Twins going 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in four starts. This series all year has been dominated by the home team and both teams have hit the other teams pitcher fairly well so I have to go with the more rested pitcher and in my opinion the better bullpen and I think the Twins will leave Chicago with the AL Central Title!
That is my Tuesday Selection and the playoffs start tomorrow so if you aren't signed up yet get on board today. The same $20 offer stands for the entire playoffs and I don't think you will find a better offer out there. Just go to procappersnetwork.com and sign up now! Best of luck to everyone today and enjoy the game.
Oscarxena SportsComment
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Re: 9-30-08
vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Triple-Dime Bet
938 CWS (-143) Bodog vs 937 MIN
Analysis:
*** MLB 3* BEST BET of the DAY *** (Danks vs Blackburn)
This number shouldn't move too much and I really had expected to see it shaded even a bit higher after the Sox were able to force this important game, especially playing at home...
Speaking of home, this series has been a "Home Club" type of series all year long...with the home club walking away the winner in "15 of 18", so you can see why I thought we would have to lay a little more vig on the Sox Tonight...
The reason I think we aren't is because the perception is that Minn was able to get that day of rest and be ready in case they need to play...while the Chi Sox were in a position where they were in "do or die" mode and we all know how difficult it is for any team to get a "must win", let alone 2 of them, back to back...and the fact that the Twins have won 6 of the L/7 in the series is also keeping the price reasonable...
For myself, the way I begin to pick winners is by evaluating all 4 aspects of MLB...starting pitching, bull-pen pitching, offense, and finally defense...especially if you are dealing with a team's whose starter allows a lot of his balls, even outs...in play...That should give us a clearer picture of each team's strengths and weaknesses so that we can compare each in the given match-up...and Finally, I come up with my own projected final score based on a system that I have been improving for years...
Well, after doing all of that...it has become evident that the White Sox have a huge edge tonight...I feel that not only do they hold the advantage by being home, but the most crucial aspect of tonight's game may very well come down to the bull-pens...and that is where I believe the Twins fall extremely short...
When you take a look at the bullpen for the Twins, you will find that they look like a very competant unit overall...and that may very well be true...But when you look at the difference between how they perform on the road, compared to at home...it's staggering...
Getting to play this one at home is the biggest advantage for the Sox...they are a team who has won "64%" of their Home Games...and none may be more important than this evening...The Twins on the other hand have won only 43% of their road games and only 2 times have they left Chicago with a win this year...
Then, when I looked for Confirmations on this play...I liked what I was hearing because experience tells me the "sharps" would have been all over the Dog in this game if they even felt their was any true value in taking the plus money...And even more surprising has been word from the sportsbooks which claims that they are receiving some split action on this game as far as the side goes...And I have always liked betting Marquee Prime-Time Games when the money isn't all one sided...
Bottom line, we have a chance to back the home team who has had a lot of success there this season...in their biggest game of the season...in a situation that allows for a Profit as long as they come through 59%+ of the time...And when I put the 4 aspects I evaluate together, the numbers show that in this spot, we could expect the home team to win closer to 68%, which would mean we could lay -213 and still break even in the long run...
Tonight, we will be asked to lay less than -150, and that is just fine by me...We will go ahead and make this our MLB 3* BEST BET...as our Final Bet of the MLB Regular Season as we look to close it out by Winning Over 75 Units of Profit...VRComment
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